The FOMC rate decision is at the top of the hour. In the video above I take a look at some of the major currency pairs and outline the key technical levels in play. Be aware be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD has declined to a new session low of 1.4079, now testing the critical 200-hour moving average at 1.40792—a level that has served as a key technical pivot over recent sessions. The pair is under sustained selling pressure as bears attempt to break below this widely-watched support zone. Notably, last Friday saw buyers defend this same moving average level, resulting in a bounce that temporarily halted the downtrend. A decisive break below the 200-hour MA could open the door for accelerated losses, potentially targeting the 1.4050 and 1.4020 support zones. Conversely, if history repeats and buyers step in again at this level, a rebound toward the 1.4100–1.4120 resistance area could materialize. Traders should watch for a confirmed close below the moving average on the hourly chart for bearish continuation signals. The price action comes ahead of this week's Federal Reserve decision, which could inject significant volatility into USD pairs. Near-term momentum favors sellers, but the established support level warrants caution before committing to directional trades.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Renewed fears of a hawkish monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve roiled markets ahead of the FOMC announcement..
USDCAD
Source: Marketaux
US equity futures are trading higher despite headwinds from a spike in oil prices and ongoing geopolitical instability stemming from the Korean peninsula crisis, as markets position ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve interest rate decision this week. The oil price surge carries significant forex implications, potentially supporting commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone while weighing on oil-importing economies. The Korean geopolitical deterioration has introduced risk-off undertones, historically benefiting safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, though the broader market tone remains surprisingly resilient. Traders are closely watching the Fed announcement for guidance on the future rate path, which will be the primary driver for USD pairs in the near term. Additionally, earnings from tech giants Meta and Microsoft could influence broader risk sentiment and indirectly impact forex flows. The divergence between rising equities and geopolitical uncertainty creates a complex environment for currency traders. Key USD pairs including EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD are likely to see elevated volatility through the week as these macro catalysts converge.
USDKRW
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Crude oil prices extended their climb during the European session as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified following reports that Iran has rejected an Oman-brokered proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Adding to supply disruption concerns, Yemen's Houthi forces are reportedly considering imposing fees on vessels transiting the Red Sea, further threatening maritime trade routes. These developments are bolstering commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while weighing on risk sentiment broadly. The USD remains in focus as markets position ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, where traders will scrutinize the Federal Reserve's policy guidance for signals on the rate trajectory. Rising oil prices typically exert upward pressure on USD/CAD sellers as the Canadian dollar benefits from energy exports, while safe-haven flows could support USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Traders should monitor Strait of Hormuz developments closely, as any escalation could trigger significant volatility across energy-sensitive forex pairs and broader risk assets heading into the Fed decision.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD faces downward pressure after Australia's June CPI printed at 3.8% y/y, significantly below the 4.0% consensus, with the monthly figure declining 0.1% versus an expected 0.2% rise. The Q2 CPI came in at 4.0% y/y versus the 4.1% forecast, while the quarterly reading of 0.6% also undershot the 0.7% expectation. Crucially, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure eased to 3.6% y/y against 3.7% expected, and the weighted mean matched at 3.6%. The across-the-board softness in inflation readings effectively removes the near-term case for an RBA rate hike, unwinding the modest hawkish expectations that had been building in money markets. This data gives the Reserve Bank of Australia room to remain on hold and assess incoming data before making any policy adjustments. Traders should watch for key support near recent session lows, while resistance aligns with pre-release levels. The cooler inflation print is likely to weigh on the Australian dollar against major counterparts, particularly versus the USD and JPY, as interest rate differentials shift against AUD positioning.
AUDUSD
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar climbed to a one-month high across major pairs as escalating Middle East hostilities drove safe-haven demand, with the DXY index firming ahead of today's highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risk intensified after reports of missile interceptions in the region, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed's policy calculus. Rising crude prices historically support the dollar through increased demand for USD-denominated commodities, while simultaneously pressuring oil-importing currencies. Traders are closely watching the Fed's policy statement and Chair Powell's press conference for any shifts in forward guidance, particularly regarding the timing of potential rate cuts amid persistent inflationary pressures. The combination of safe-haven flows and elevated rate expectations has created a supportive environment for the greenback. Key pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain under pressure near recent lows. Traders should monitor the Fed's tone on inflation, as a hawkish hold could extend dollar strength, while any dovish pivot may trigger a sharp reversal.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
