US June factory orders -0.3% vs +0.2% expectedJOLTs job openings 7.359M vs 7.400M estimate. Lower than last month.Rubio: There's been progress on reopening Strait.
USD
EUR
JPY
AUD
Source: Finnhub
Canada's manufacturing PMI surged to its highest level since June 2022, providing a supportive backdrop for CAD pairs including USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. The S&P Global PMI reading marked a fourth consecutive month of expansion, with output, new orders, and employment all accelerating. However, the picture is mixed: input prices rose at their fastest pace in four years, signaling mounting inflationary pressures that could influence Bank of Canada policy decisions. Notably, the expansion appears domestically driven, as new export orders declined for a second straight month, suggesting external demand remains soft. Business confidence also fell to its lowest level since March, tempering the bullish outlook. For USD/CAD traders, the strong domestic manufacturing data could support CAD strength in the near term, but weakening export orders and fading business confidence may limit downside in the pair. Traders should monitor upcoming trade balance data and BoC commentary for further directional cues on CAD crosses.
USDCAD
EURCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures surged to record highs while crude oil prices tumbled sharply after Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that the Strait of Hormuz could potentially reopen as early as tomorrow. The geopolitical development carries significant implications for forex markets, particularly for oil-sensitive currency pairs. A reopening of the critical shipping lane, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits, would ease supply concerns and reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices. The sharp decline in oil prices is weighing heavily on commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and Norwegian krone (NOK), while providing relief to net energy importers like Japan (JPY) and the Eurozone (EUR). USD/CAD is expected to face upward pressure as lower oil prices undermine CAD support, while USD/JPY could see selling as risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand fades. Traders should monitor confirmation of the Hormuz developments closely, as any reversal in the geopolitical narrative could trigger rapid repositioning across energy-sensitive pairs and broader risk sentiment.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar faces potential headwinds as Iran and Oman reportedly near a landmark agreement to establish joint supervision of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, bypassing direct US involvement. The strait handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, making this development a significant geopolitical risk factor for energy markets and currency pairs tied to oil flows. The proposed framework would replace decades of US-backed free navigation principles, potentially increasing uncertainty around crude oil transit and pricing. Rising oil prices typically pressure USD/JPY lower while supporting commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for potential downside as higher crude prices benefit the Canadian dollar, with key support near recent lows. USD/JPY may also see safe-haven flows into the yen if geopolitical tensions escalate. EUR/USD could see modest upside if dollar sentiment deteriorates on perceived loss of US strategic influence. Near-term volatility is expected across oil-sensitive pairs as markets assess the deal's implications for global energy security and trade flows.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is trading at 157.77 following historic joint US-Japan yen-buying intervention totaling ¥13.8 trillion, the first coordinated effort since 1998. The pair has retreated sharply from its July peak of 163.86, representing a decline of approximately 609 pips. Notably, the intervention was funded using euros rather than US dollars, adding a unique dimension that also impacts EUR/JPY dynamics. The scale of the operation underscores the seriousness with which both governments view excessive yen weakness. Traders are now eyeing two critical levels: the 150.00 psychological support, which would represent a significant yen recovery, and 164.00, which marks the intervention-triggered high. The use of euro reserves rather than dollar reserves is a strategic departure that may reflect coordination with the ECB or a desire to avoid disrupting US Treasury markets. Near-term direction will likely depend on whether markets test the resolve of authorities with renewed selling pressure on the yen, or whether the intervention successfully anchors expectations around current levels.
USDJPY
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar faces a pivotal week as markets brace for Friday's July Non-Farm Payrolls report, with consensus estimates projecting +80K jobs added — a notable improvement from June's +57K reading. This key employment data release has the potential to significantly reshape Federal Reserve rate expectations and drive volatility across all major USD pairs. While the upcoming US CPI report may carry even greater weight for monetary policy direction, traders should not underestimate the capacity of labor market surprises to upend current market pricing on the Fed's trajectory. A reading substantially above or below the +80K estimate could trigger sharp moves in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Stronger-than-expected payrolls would likely bolster the dollar by reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance, while a miss could accelerate dollar selling. Traders should monitor wage growth and unemployment rate components alongside the headline figure, as these secondary metrics often amplify or temper the initial market reaction. Position sizing and risk management will be critical heading into this high-impact event.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is under pressure as Japanese officials signal heightened scrutiny of yen weakness, with former BOJ board member Kiuchi declining to specify an intervention level but confirming authorities are closely monitoring FX impacts. The PBOC set the USD/CNY central rate at 6.7917, maintaining a steady hand amid broader Asia-Pacific market turbulence. Japan's Nikkei slipped on yen intervention fears while South Korea's Kospi wobbled. Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz incident and Iranian threats drove a 7% plunge in Brent and WTI crude before a modest recovery, injecting risk-off sentiment across the region. Australian household spending rose 0.8% in June, beating expectations and providing mild support for AUD. UBS noted that earnings strength and gradual Hormuz recovery support equities, though near-term volatility remains elevated. Crypto markets also felt pressure as Telegram's App Store delisting sent GRAM sliding. Traders should watch for further yen intervention signals and oil price stabilization as key directional catalysts across Asia-Pacific FX pairs.
USDJPY
USDCNY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD is receiving bullish support after Australian household spending data significantly beat expectations, rising 0.8% in June compared to the 0.2% consensus forecast. This marks the second consecutive month of strong consumer spending, following an even larger 1.3% increase in May. The data suggests Australian consumer demand remains resilient despite three RBA rate hikes already delivered in 2026, undermining expectations of a near-term policy pause. With inflation still elevated and the labour market holding firm, the spending figures strengthen the case for continued monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is supportive of the Australian dollar through widening rate differentials. The demand-side pressure evident in the data shows that current borrowing costs have yet to meaningfully cool household consumption. Traders should monitor upcoming Australian CPI and employment releases for confirmation of this trend. Near-term, the hawkish RBA repricing could push AUD/USD toward key resistance levels, while AUD crosses such as AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD may also see upward momentum on the back of this data surprise.
AUDUSD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
