The latest EIA outlook includes a notable upward revision to crude oil price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, while also adjusting its expectations for global supply and demand. The agency also highlighted significant Middle East production disruptions in July and continued risks surrounding key shipping routes.Key takeaways from the latest outlook: U.S. WTI crude spot prices are expected to average $80.88/bbl in 2026, up from the previous forecast of $76.26.
AUD
Source: Finnhub
US existing home sales for July came in slightly above expectations at 4.06 million units versus the 4.05 million forecast, though down 1.7% from the prior reading of 4.09 million. The median home price rose 2.0% year-over-year to $434,100, while housing inventory held steady at 4.6 months of supply. The data paints a picture of a housing market in a holding pattern, constrained by elevated mortgage rates driven by rising Treasury yields. When adjusted for CPI, housing affordability shows a slight but steady improvement, offering a modest positive signal for consumer purchasing power. The key variable for the US dollar going forward is the trajectory of borrowing rates, which directly ties to Federal Reserve policy expectations and Treasury market dynamics. For forex traders, the data is broadly neutral for the USD, as it neither supports aggressive rate cuts nor signals economic deterioration. Near-term USD pairs may remain range-bound pending clearer signals from upcoming inflation or employment data. Traders should monitor the 10-year Treasury yield as a leading indicator for mortgage rate direction and broader dollar sentiment.
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures jumped and crude oil prices tumbled sharply as well-timed diplomatic comments sparked a fresh wave of optimism regarding tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The de-escalation narrative has triggered a broad risk-on move across markets, weakening the US dollar as safe-haven demand recedes. Lower oil prices carry significant implications for forex markets, potentially easing inflationary pressures globally and reducing the urgency for central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies. The decline in crude particularly benefits oil-importing nations' currencies such as the Japanese yen and Indian rupee, while commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone may face headwinds. For USD pairs, the risk-on shift is putting downward pressure on the greenback, with traders rotating into higher-beta currencies. Technical traders should watch for a sustained break below key dollar index support levels to confirm the bearish USD move. The durability of this rally depends on whether diplomatic rhetoric translates into concrete agreements. Traders should remain cautious, as Hormuz-related optimism has historically been subject to rapid reversals.
USDJPY
USDCAD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP faces uncertainty as the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced it will not decide until July next year on the feasibility of transitioning to improved labour market statistics. This delay extends a data reliability issue that has persisted for over three years, undermining the Bank of England's ability to accurately assess employment conditions when setting monetary policy. The ongoing lack of dependable labour market figures creates a significant blind spot for policymakers and traders alike, as employment data is a critical input for interest rate decisions. Without reliable jobs data, the BoE must rely on alternative indicators and estimates, potentially leading to policy missteps that could weigh on sterling. For GBP/USD traders, this prolonged statistical uncertainty adds a layer of fundamental risk, as market participants cannot confidently gauge the true state of UK employment. The news is modestly negative for the pound, as it perpetuates an information vacuum that could delay appropriate policy responses and erode confidence in UK economic assessments among international investors.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asia-Pacific markets are navigating a complex landscape with multiple currency-moving developments. The Japanese yen is drawing attention as sources suggest the Bank of Japan could raise rates again at its September 17-18 meeting, potentially strengthening JPY against major counterparts. USD/INR faces upward pressure as the Indian rupee is set to open weaker amid rising oil prices, though Reserve Bank of India intervention may cap losses. AUD/USD traders are digesting mixed Australian business data, with conditions edging higher in July but confidence remaining fragile, limiting upside potential. The New Zealand dollar faces political uncertainty as PM Luxon calls an urgent caucus meeting to address leadership speculation, adding downside risk to NZD pairs. Singapore's doubling of its 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5%, driven by a tech cycle upgrade, provides a bullish backdrop for SGD. Meanwhile, the PBOC setting seven-day reverse repo volume at zero signals tightening liquidity conditions in China, potentially weighing on risk-sensitive currencies. Oil and gold remaining near highs add further complexity to commodity-linked forex positioning.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDINR
USDSGD
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Brent crude oil prices climbed above $88 per barrel amid a prolonged US-Iran diplomatic stalemate, injecting uncertainty into global energy markets and influencing forex positioning across Asia-Pacific. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan oscillated between losses and gains before settling up 0.2%, while South Korea's Kospi added 0.3%. The elevated oil prices are putting pressure on currencies of net oil-importing economies, particularly the Japanese yen and Indian rupee, while supporting commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar. The US-Iran standoff introduces a geopolitical risk premium into crude, which could filter through to higher inflation expectations and complicate central bank rate decisions globally. For forex traders, the key dynamic is the divergence between commodity exporters and importers — pairs like AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY may see upward pressure as energy costs diverge. Near-term, traders should watch for any breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, which could trigger a sharp reversal in oil and associated currency moves. Elevated crude also reinforces USD strength through petrodollar recycling flows.
USDJPY
AUDJPY
CADJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD is trading in a narrow range ahead of today's Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, with the NAB Monthly Business Survey for July providing a mixed backdrop for the Australian dollar. Business conditions edged higher to +4, an improvement from prior readings but still well below the long-run average of +7, indicating the economy is performing better than feared without signaling robust strength. However, business confidence remains stuck well below pre-conflict levels, reflecting persistent uncertainty weighing on forward-looking sentiment. The combination of modestly improving conditions alongside fragile confidence gives the RBA little incentive to deviate from a widely expected hold on interest rates. Traders should anticipate a cautious central bank tone that is neither clearly hawkish nor dovish, which may limit significant AUD/USD volatility post-decision. Near-term direction for the pair will likely hinge on the RBA's guidance language and any shifts in risk appetite. Traders should watch for breakout opportunities once the policy statement is released, as the current consolidation phase could resolve quickly on any surprise rhetoric.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
