US stocks close the day mixed with the Dow up, S&P unchanged and the Nasdaq modestly lower.Crude oil futures settled at $82.61US Treasury sells $70B of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.408%Trump: On Iran, I have plenty of timePakistani Intelligence: U.S. May Be Considering Limited Ground Operation in IranUS treasury sells $69 billion of 2 year note at a high yield ofTrump: I am not to give much time to negotiations – either it will move quickly or won't happen at all.Heads Up.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CHF
AUD
NZD
Source: Finnhub
US equity indices came under significant pressure as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 declined, with the S&P 500 breaking below a key trendline support level during Monday's session. The selloff was driven primarily by profit-taking in the AI and semiconductor sectors, which were among the market's weakest performers as investors reduced risk exposure ahead of a critical week of corporate earnings reports. The technology-heavy NASDAQ bore the brunt of the selling pressure, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across financial markets. This equity weakness has implications for USD-correlated pairs, as declining risk appetite typically supports safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, potentially pressuring USD/JPY lower while supporting CHF flows. Traders should monitor upcoming earnings results from major tech companies, which could either stabilize sentiment or accelerate the risk-off move. The S&P 500's trendline break is a notable technical development that may trigger further systematic selling if follow-through occurs in upcoming sessions. Near-term forex positioning should account for elevated volatility tied to earnings-driven equity moves.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD is trading modestly higher on Monday after an early bearish attempt failed to gain traction below key moving averages. The pair initially opened on the defensive, slipping beneath the rising 100-hour moving average, but sellers were unable to sustain downside pressure as the 200-hour moving average at 1.4064 provided firm support. The subsequent rebound has pushed the pair back into positive territory for the session, though upside momentum remains limited with last week's highs acting as a clear resistance ceiling. The price action suggests a consolidation phase, with buyers defending the 1.4064 support zone while lacking conviction to break above the prior week's peak. Traders should monitor these technical boundaries closely, as a decisive break in either direction could set the tone for the remainder of the week. Near-term, the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages define the trading range, and a catalyst from upcoming economic data or central bank commentary may be needed to resolve this impasse.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar staged a strong recovery during the week ended July 24, buoyed by renewed safe-haven demand and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. A significant escalation in Middle East tensions drove investors toward the greenback as a traditional safe-haven currency, while a concurrent surge in crude oil prices intensified inflationary concerns. The spike in energy costs has reinforced market expectations that the Fed may adopt a more aggressively hawkish monetary policy stance to combat persistent price pressures. The dollar's broad-based strength was evident across major pairs, with the DXY index posting notable weekly gains. The interplay between geopolitical risk premiums and energy-driven inflation expectations has created a particularly supportive environment for the dollar. Traders should remain attentive to developments in the Middle East conflict and upcoming Fed communications, as both factors are likely to continue dictating dollar direction. Any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could reverse some of the recent gains.
USDCAD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Oil prices declined sharply during the European session as markets grew increasingly confident in a de-escalation of US-Iran tensions following reports that the US halted strikes on Iran. The risk-off unwind has broad implications across forex markets. USD/JPY faces pressure as Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi called for an exit from excessively tight fiscal policy, signaling potential shifts in Japan's economic stance that could weigh on the yen. In the eurozone, ECB policymakers delivered mixed signals, with Žigman emphasizing data dependency for the September rate decision while Kazimir insisted at least one more rate hike would be needed, creating uncertainty for EUR/USD positioning. Traders are also eyeing big tech earnings this week on Wall Street, which could drive broader risk sentiment and dollar flows. Germany's economic outlook remains a key factor for euro direction. The geopolitical premium unwinding from oil markets is reducing safe-haven demand, potentially pressuring CHF and JPY while supporting risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and CAD. Traders should monitor further US-Iran developments for sudden sentiment shifts.
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCAD
AUDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
A dramatic geopolitical shift is reshaping forex markets on Monday as the United States and Iran agreed to halt military strikes after five months of conflict, sending WTI crude oil prices sharply below $64 per barrel. The de-escalation has triggered a significant risk-on move across global markets, lifting equities and risk-sensitive currencies while undermining the US dollar's safe-haven premium. The collapse in crude prices also eases inflationary pressures, potentially reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to maintain an aggressively hawkish stance — a notable reversal from last week's rate hike expectations. Traders are now recalibrating positions ahead of key central bank decisions scheduled for this week, which will be critical in determining the next directional move for major currency pairs. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar face mixed signals, as lower oil prices typically weigh on CAD despite the broader risk-positive environment. Near-term, market focus will center on whether the ceasefire holds and how central banks respond to the rapidly shifting macroeconomic backdrop.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar opened lower to start the new week as renewed hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire deal triggered a broad risk-on sentiment shift across global markets. The pattern mirrors mid-to-late June price action, when a similar memorandum of understanding led to comparable market dynamics. Oil prices gapped down on easing geopolitical supply concerns, while equities and precious metals pushed higher alongside rising bond yields — all classic hallmarks of dollar weakness in a risk-on environment. The greenback is losing ground against major counterparts as traders reduce safe-haven positioning. This déjà vu scenario raises questions about sustainability, as the June precedent saw initial optimism eventually moderate. Traders should monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations closely, as any breakdown in talks could rapidly reverse the current dollar weakness. Near-term, the DXY faces downside pressure with risk appetite favoring commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD, while safe havens such as JPY and CHF may see reduced demand. The key risk remains whether this ceasefire momentum holds or fades as it did following the initial June agreement.
EURUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
