The US Dollar faces heightened volatility risk ahead of the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release, as the wide distribution of analyst forecasts increases the probability of a significant surprise deviation from consensus expectations. When actual NFP data lands outside the central cluster of estimates, it typically triggers sharp moves across major USD pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. The spread between the highest and lowest forecasts reflects considerable uncertainty about the current state of the US labor market, a key input for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. A stronger-than-expected print would likely bolster the dollar by reinforcing expectations for a more hawkish Fed stance, while a miss to the downside could accelerate USD selling as markets price in earlier rate cuts. Traders should monitor the median estimate as the anchor point and prepare for elevated spread widening and slippage around the release. Key levels on the Dollar Index near-term will likely define directional bias across all major pairs in the sessions following the data.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar showed mixed performance as equity markets largely shrugged off a sharp rally in oil prices during Thursday's session. US initial jobless claims came in at 202K, beating the 212K estimate and signaling continued labor market resilience, which provides underlying support for the greenback. The US February trade deficit narrowed to -$57.30 billion versus the expected -$61.00 billion, a positive signal for USD fundamentals. In contrast, Canada's February trade balance deteriorated sharply to -$5.74 billion against an expected -$2.25 billion deficit, placing significant pressure on the Canadian dollar and potentially weighing on USD/CAD dynamics in favor of the US dollar. The surge in WTI crude oil prices typically supports commodity-linked currencies like CAD, but the dismal Canadian trade data may offset that tailwind. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for directional cues as the conflicting forces of rising oil and weak Canadian trade data create a complex setup. Near-term USD strength remains supported by solid employment data and improving trade figures.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faces a unique volatility scenario as the March non-farm payrolls report is scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday, April 3rd — a day when the NYSE stock market is closed. This rare calendar collision creates an unusual trading environment where forex markets, which operate 24 hours, will still be active while equity markets remain shuttered. The bond market closes early at noon ET, and CME futures markets maintain abbreviated schedules. With reduced liquidity across multiple asset classes, USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY could experience exaggerated price swings in response to the employment data. Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday nearly every year since 1864, making it the only stock market holiday that is not also a federal holiday. Traders should exercise caution as thinner market conditions may amplify moves in either direction following the jobs data. Positioning ahead of the release is critical, as the lack of equity market participation could distort typical correlations between stocks and forex.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD came under significant selling pressure as markets shifted decisively into risk-off mode following a Trump speech that offered no signs of de-escalation on trade tensions, reigniting stagflation fears across global markets. The Australian dollar, a key risk-sensitive currency, weakened against the US dollar as traders fled to safe-haven assets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both faced intraday declines, reinforcing the broader risk-averse environment. Gold attracted safe-haven flows, while WTI crude oil saw heightened volatility amid uncertainty over global growth prospects and trade disruption risks. The stagflation narrative — combining slowing economic growth with persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs — remains a dominant theme that could continue to weigh on risk currencies like AUD and NZD while supporting USD and JPY. Traders should watch for further political developments and monitor AUD/USD for potential tests of key support levels. Elevated volatility is expected to persist in the near term as geopolitical uncertainty dominates sentiment.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Switzerland's March CPI printed at +0.3% year-over-year, significantly undershooting the +0.5% consensus and rising only modestly from the prior +0.1% reading. The monthly CPI figure also disappointed at +0.2% versus the +0.5% expected, while core CPI held steady at +0.4% year-over-year. The softer-than-anticipated inflation data reinforces the Swiss National Bank's dovish positioning and raises the probability of further rate cuts, as price pressures remain notably subdued even amid surging energy costs that have driven inflation higher elsewhere, particularly in the Eurozone. The muted inflation response highlights Switzerland's structural resilience to energy price shocks compared to its European peers. For USD/CHF traders, the data is CHF-negative, as weaker inflation reduces the urgency for the SNB to maintain or tighten policy. EUR/CHF may also see upward pressure given the divergence in inflation dynamics between Switzerland and the Eurozone. Near-term, traders should monitor SNB commentary for confirmation of a continued accommodative stance, which could extend Swiss franc weakness across major pairs.
USDCHF
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Gulf states are actively exploring new pipeline routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas exports, according to a Financial Times report citing officials and industry executives. The move comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions with Iran, which maintains strategic influence over the critical waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits daily. While pipeline infrastructure already exists across the region, expanded capacity could gradually shift risk premiums currently embedded in crude oil prices and, by extension, commodity-linked currencies. CAD, NOK, and other petro-currencies may see reduced volatility tied to Hormuz disruption fears if projects materialize. In the near term, crude oil prices could face modest downward pressure on expectations of diversified export routes, potentially weighing on USD/CAD dynamics where Canadian dollar strength often correlates with oil price movements. However, these pipeline projects would take years to complete, limiting immediate forex impact. Traders should monitor developments for longer-term positioning in oil-sensitive pairs such as USD/CAD and USD/NOK.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is showing significant technical weakness after failing to sustain its rally to April 2024 highs during a mid-March crude oil spike. The pair's inability to hold above prior resistance levels has coincided with a bearish RSI divergence on higher timeframes, a classic signal that upward momentum is fading despite price attempts at new highs. This divergence suggests that buyers are losing conviction, and the pair may be vulnerable to a deeper pullback. The mid-March bounce was largely driven by a temporary crude oil price surge, which briefly supported dollar strength through risk-on flows, but that catalyst has since dissipated. From a fundamental perspective, the Bank of Japan's gradual normalization path continues to provide underlying yen support, while Federal Reserve rate expectations remain data-dependent. Key technical support sits near the 50-day moving average, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward the 200-day moving average. Traders should watch for confirmation of the bearish divergence with a decisive close below recent consolidation lows before committing to short positions.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar held relatively steady following President Trump's address, which reiterated a 2-3 week timeline for intensified action against Iran but stopped short of announcing a ground war or any withdrawal from the conflict. Markets had priced in the possibility of a pullout announcement over the prior two sessions, driving significant volatility in USD pairs, but the lack of new information left positioning largely unchanged. The speech, described as lengthy and lacking substantive policy updates, confirmed the administration's intent to 'hit Iran very hard' within the stated timeframe, maintaining geopolitical uncertainty as a key driver for safe-haven flows. USD/JPY and USD/CHF remain sensitive to further developments, with traders closely monitoring any escalation that could trigger risk-off moves. The DXY index is consolidating near recent levels as markets digest the status quo. Traders should watch for follow-up policy announcements and any shift in the conflict timeline, which could rapidly move haven currencies and oil-linked pairs such as USD/CAD.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under broad selling pressure as futures and bonds surged on growing optimism that a geopolitical conflict may be nearing resolution, triggering a significant risk-on shift across global markets. Crude oil tumbled below the $100 per barrel mark, removing a key inflationary pillar that had been supporting hawkish central bank expectations and dollar strength. The decline in energy prices eases pressure on import-dependent economies and could prompt a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate trajectory, as lower oil prices feed into softer inflation expectations. Bond markets rallied sharply, pushing yields lower, which further undermined the greenback's yield advantage against major counterparts. EUR/USD and other dollar pairs are likely to see upward pressure as risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand for the dollar fades. Traders should monitor developments around ceasefire negotiations closely, as any reversal in sentiment could quickly restore dollar demand. Key support for the USD Index lies near recent lows, while resistance in EUR/USD and GBP/USD may be tested in the near term.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar remains in a holding pattern as markets brace for President Trump's scheduled address to the nation at 0100 GMT, promising "important updates" on the US-Iran conflict. The geopolitical tension has been a dominant driver of safe-haven flows, benefiting traditional refuge currencies such as JPY and CHF while keeping risk-sensitive pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD under pressure. Gold has also seen elevated demand amid the uncertainty. The tone of Trump's address will be critical — any indication of de-escalation could trigger a reversal in safe-haven positioning, weakening JPY and CHF while boosting risk appetite and commodity currencies. Conversely, an escalatory tone could deepen the flight to safety and pressure USD/JPY toward lower levels. Oil prices remain elevated on supply disruption fears, adding an inflationary dimension that complicates the Federal Reserve's policy calculus. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility across major pairs immediately following the address, with USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD likely to see the sharpest reactions.
USDJPY
EURUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is attempting a recovery after establishing support near the 1.1450 level, while USD/JPY has pulled back from recent peaks above 160.00 and shows potential to extend its decline further. The euro's rebound suggests buying interest is emerging at these levels, potentially driven by improving Eurozone sentiment and a softening US dollar. USD/JPY's retreat from the psychologically significant 160.00 area raises renewed speculation about potential Bank of Japan intervention or a shift in monetary policy stance, as Japanese authorities have historically acted near these elevated levels. The divergence between the two pairs points to broad-based dollar weakness developing across major currencies. For EUR/USD, immediate resistance lies near the 1.1500 handle, with a sustained break potentially opening a move toward 1.1550. On USD/JPY, traders should watch for support around 158.50, with a break lower possibly accelerating declines toward 157.00. Market participants are closely monitoring central bank communications from both the ECB and BOJ for further directional cues on these key pairs.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Asian retail forex trading demand is accelerating as OneTwoMarkets expands its multi-asset instrument coverage to over 45 currency pairs, highlighting growing interest in both major and exotic Asian crosses. The platform expansion underscores rising participation from retail traders across Asia, with particular focus on pairs including USD/JPY, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/MYR, and AUD/JPY. The move reflects broader industry trends as brokerages respond to surging demand for direct access to forex, commodities, and global indices. USD/JPY remains the most actively traded Asian pair, with the Bank of Japan's ongoing policy normalization and yen volatility continuing to attract speculative interest. Exotic pairs like USD/THB and USD/MYR are seeing increased volumes as Southeast Asian economies navigate divergent monetary policy cycles. AUD/JPY, a popular carry trade vehicle, also features prominently amid shifting risk sentiment. For traders, the expansion of retail access to these instruments signals deepening liquidity in Asian FX markets, though exotic pairs carry wider spreads and heightened volatility risk that require careful position sizing.
USDJPY
USDSGD
USDTHB
USDMYR
AUDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Asia-Pacific forex markets are navigating heightened geopolitical risk as the UAE pushes to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of a U.S.-Gulf coalition intervention. The disruption to one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints is sending shockwaves through commodity-linked and safe-haven currencies alike. Oil prices have surged on supply concerns, supporting commodity currencies like AUD and CAD while simultaneously boosting safe-haven demand for JPY and CHF. Adding to the complex backdrop, China's Manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.8, still in expansion territory but below expectations, with cost pressures hitting a two-year high — a signal of mounting inflationary headwinds for the region's largest economy. The yuan faces downward pressure as economic momentum fades, while USD/JPY is caught between competing forces of risk aversion and dollar strength. Near-term, traders should monitor Hormuz developments closely, as sustained disruption could trigger broader risk-off flows benefiting JPY. AUD/USD may find support from elevated commodity prices but faces headwinds from slowing Chinese demand.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCNH
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar saw mixed trading during Tuesday's session as geopolitical developments and economic data competed for market attention. War optimism dominated headlines, with China and Pakistan reportedly presenting a new Iran peace initiative, while Iran's foreign minister stated demands for a complete end to hostilities rather than a ceasefire. President Trump's declaration that the US would not assist in securing Hormuz oil shipments added uncertainty to energy markets, indirectly supporting safe-haven flows. On the data front, JOLTS job openings for February came in slightly below expectations at 6.882 million versus 6.918 million estimated, suggesting modest cooling in the labor market. However, US March consumer confidence surprised to the upside at 91.8 versus 88.0 expected, providing some dollar support. January CaseShiller 20-city house price data also featured in the release calendar. Traders should monitor developments in Middle East diplomacy closely, as any de-escalation could reduce oil-driven volatility and weigh on commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Near-term USD direction hinges on upcoming employment data and geopolitical clarity.
USDCAD
USDIRR
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar surged as a broad risk-off wave swept markets following Iran's Revolutionary Guard naming 18 American technology companies for retaliation, citing their involvement in defense contracts and AI-driven intelligence gathering. The S&P 500 erased nearly half its gains, falling from +110 points to just +62 points as equities came under heavy selling pressure. Safe-haven demand propelled the dollar higher against risk-sensitive currencies, with pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD all facing downside pressure. Companies including Palantir, Microsoft, and Google were specifically targeted, escalating geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The development compounds existing tensions surrounding the US-Iran conflict, adding a layer of corporate risk to the broader geopolitical narrative. Traders should monitor further escalation signals, as retaliatory actions against major US tech firms could ripple through equity markets and amplify dollar strength. Near-term, the DXY index is likely to find support from continued safe-haven flows, while risk currencies may test lower support levels.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
European currencies extended their losses against the US dollar on Monday, with GBP/USD deepening its decline and EUR/USD remaining firmly under pressure as escalating geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. The British pound led the selloff among major European currencies, reflecting heightened risk aversion amid the intensifying Middle East conflict. The euro also struggled to find buyers, weighed down by a combination of dollar strength and limited upside catalysts from European economic data. Safe-haven demand for the US dollar and dollar-denominated liquid assets has been the dominant theme, sidelining any positive fundamental factors for European economies. Technically, GBP/USD faces immediate support near recent lows, with a break lower potentially accelerating the bearish move. EUR/USD remains capped below key resistance levels, and sustained geopolitical uncertainty could push the pair toward lower support zones. Traders should watch for any de-escalation signals that might trigger a relief rally in European currencies, though the near-term bias remains firmly in favor of the dollar.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD maintains a bearish bias as geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict continue to dominate forex market dynamics. Eurozone headline inflation picked up in March, driven by surging energy prices linked to Middle East hostilities and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs noted that FX markets have yet to fully price in the energy shock, suggesting further volatility ahead. ECB board member Muller warned that the central bank's current baseline projection may already be too optimistic, hinting at potential policy reassessment. European equities remained relatively calm on the session but are poised to close out one of the worst monthly performances in recent years. On the upside, reports that President Trump is open to ending the conflict without escalating near Hormuz provided a brief lift to risk assets, with the Nasdaq bouncing on renewed deal optimism. Traders should monitor US-Iran negotiation developments closely, as any breakthrough or breakdown could trigger sharp moves in EUR/USD. Key focus remains on energy price trajectories and their pass-through effects on inflation and central bank policy.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD remains entrenched in a bearish downtrend, failing to sustain gains from a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia stance and reversing sharply from 0.7123 to a three-month low. The pair continues to trade below the critical 0.6910 resistance level, confirming the bearish technical structure despite two potentially supportive catalysts. President Trump's remarks about exiting the Iran war initially provided a brief risk-on impulse, but the rally was quickly sold into as broader risk aversion and dollar strength reasserted dominance. The RBA's hawkish tone had temporarily lifted the Australian dollar, but the reversal from 0.7123 underscores the strength of the prevailing downtrend. Key resistance stands firmly at 0.6910, and a sustained move below current levels could open the path toward deeper losses. Support is anticipated near the 0.6800 psychological level. The failure to capitalize on both a hawkish central bank and potential geopolitical de-escalation signals that bearish momentum remains dominant. Traders should treat rallies toward 0.6910 as potential selling opportunities until a decisive break above that level occurs.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Risk-sensitive currencies are gaining ground against the US dollar in early Tuesday trading as reports from the Wall Street Journal suggest the US may be open to winding down military operations in the Middle East without requiring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The development, if confirmed, could reduce geopolitical risk premiums that have supported safe-haven flows into the dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen in recent sessions. However, market participants remain cautious, questioning whether this represents a genuine shift in US foreign policy or another false dawn, given that the arrangement would not fully satisfy President Trump's stated objectives regarding Iran. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are among the early beneficiaries of improved risk appetite, while USD/JPY faces downward pressure as haven demand softens. Oil prices have also eased on the news, potentially benefiting oil-importing nations' currencies. Traders should monitor follow-up statements from the White House for confirmation, as any walkback could quickly reverse these moves. Key support for the US Dollar Index sits near recent lows, with resistance at prior session highs.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
XAU/USD has experienced significant volatility, with gold correcting sharply from its all-time high near $5,416 reached on March 2 to a technically significant low of $4,098.27 on March 23, representing a decline of approximately 24%. The selloff followed a prior correction in early February to $4,395 before the strong rebound. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Iran, safe-haven demand has not been sufficient to sustain the highs, as broader market dynamics and potential profit-taking weighed on the precious metal. Traders are now closely monitoring Fibonacci retracement levels and moving averages on both the daily and hourly charts to identify potential reversal zones and continuation patterns. The $4,098 low aligns with key technical support, making it a critical level for bulls to defend. Resistance is seen near the $4,395 prior swing low, now acting as overhead supply. A break below $4,098 could expose further downside, while a sustained hold above this level may attract dip buyers looking for a recovery toward the $4,700-$5,000 zone.
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
