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Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, October 1, 2026

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Thursday, October 1, 2026 at a glance

7
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Archive date: Thursday, October 1, 2026

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Forexlive

Preview: September non - farm payrolls by the numbers

What's expected:Consensus estimate +910K August +162KJuly +21KPrivate consensus estimate +85KUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% priorParticipation rate 61.6% priorPrior underemployment U6 prior 7.7%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.4 priorSeptember jobs so far:ADP employment report +90K vs +75K expected and +36K prior ISM services employment not yet releasedISM manufacturing...
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD pairs: US August construction spending +0.9% vs 0.0% expected

The source reports no currency price move, pip figure or technical levels. US construction spending rose 0.9% month-on-month in August, well above the 0.0% consensus. July was revised up to -0.1% from -0.5%, adding to the positive tone of the release. The seasonally adjusted annual spending rate stood at $2,203.1 billion. The longer-term picture is weaker: spending was down 1.7% year-on-year, and January-August spending was 3.1% below the same period in 2025. Private construction drove the monthly gain, rising 1.1% to $1,655.3 billion from a revised $1,637.7 billion in July. Private residential spending increased to $882.3 billion from $872.7 billion. For USD traders, the headline beat and upward revision point to firmer near-term construction activity. The year-on-year and year-to-date declines show the sector remains below last year's levels, which limits the read-through for the dollar. Construction spending is typically a second-tier release, so its impact on USD pairs is likely to be modest relative to higher-profile US data.
EURUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD/CAD in focus as Trump flags possible post-midterm escalation against Iran

The source reports no currency price moves, pip figures or technical levels. In an interview with TIME, President Trump said the U.S. could resume or intensify attacks against Iran after the midterm elections. Trump initially expected the conflict to last four to six weeks, but seven months on there is still no clear end in sight. The war has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed energy prices higher and created significant economic and geopolitical consequences. Trump continues to defend the decision to launch the war, saying military action was necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. For traders, the comments extend the timeline of geopolitical risk past the midterms and keep energy supply disruption in play. Oil-sensitive pairs such as USD/CAD and broader USD positioning may remain exposed to headline risk tied to the Strait of Hormuz and any change in U.S. military posture.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
cnbc.com

USD/JPY: Japan PM vows yen confidence boost as US intervention falls short

The source reports no USD/JPY price move, pip figure or technical levels. Japan's Prime Minister said her government's policies will lift confidence in the yen. The comments follow U.S. intervention efforts to support the Japanese currency that fell short, with prior attempts to boost the yen described as having underwhelming success. The source does not detail which policies the government intends to use or give a timeline for their implementation. For USD/JPY traders, the remarks signal continued official concern over yen weakness and political focus on the currency. The limited impact of earlier intervention suggests verbal support alone may not be enough to shift the yen's direction. Traders may watch for concrete policy measures from Tokyo, or further coordinated action, as potential catalysts for the pair.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD: Eurozone manufacturing at 52-month high as price pressures accelerate

The source reports no price move, pip figure or technical levels for EUR/USD. Eurozone manufacturing activity reached a 52-month high in data published on October 1, 2026, and both input and output prices accelerated. The source says the takeaway is no longer simply that manufacturing is recovering, which shifts attention to the price side of the report alongside the rebound in activity. The release does not include a headline index value, and it gives no central bank commentary. For traders, the combination of stronger factory activity and faster input and output price growth is a fundamental factor for the euro. Cost pressures passing through to output prices are relevant to the inflation outlook, so follow-up price data is worth watching when assessing euro direction against the dollar.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD/CNH, USD/TWD: US sees China invasion of Taiwan unlikely before 2028

The source reports no price move, pip figure or technical levels for any currency pair. According to a Reuters report, US officials increasingly see a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 as unlikely. For years, 2027 has been viewed as the point by which China wants its military to be capable of taking Taiwan by force. The latest US assessment suggests that this target does not necessarily mean an invasion is imminent. The article also notes that trade and market risks remain despite the reduced near-term invasion expectations, though it gives no further detail. No economic data or central bank developments are cited. For traders, the report may modestly ease near-term geopolitical tail-risk around China and Taiwan, a factor relevant to China- and Taiwan-linked currency pairs and broader risk sentiment. The source's caveat that trade and market risks remain means US-China tensions stay a background factor to monitor.
USDCNH USDTWD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
thestockmarketwatch.com

AUD/USD: RBA flags 'opaque' financing and AI-driven global market volatility

The source reports no price move, pip figure or technical levels for AUD/USD. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its October 2026 Financial Stability Review, which indicates that the domestic financial system remains resilient. The review also warns about 'opaque' financing at a time when global markets face AI-driven volatility. The source does not provide specific figures, policy rate signals or market reactions. For traders, the review is a risk-sentiment input rather than a direct policy signal. The RBA's warning about opaque financing and AI-related volatility points to global risk factors that can affect the Australian dollar, while the stated domestic resilience balances that concern. Without reported price action, the near-term impact on AUD/USD is unclear.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux

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