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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Friday, October 24, 2025

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News Statistics for Friday, October 24, 2025

14
Total Articles
2
Bullish
7
Bearish
5
Neutral

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Archive date: Friday, October 24, 2025

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Forexlive

With US govt still shut, focus next week in the US will be on earnings and the Fed

Next week, the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday will be the highlight at 2 PM. Fed chair Powell press conference will follow at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis point after cutting rates by 25 basis point at the last meeting and forecasting to more interest rate cuts before the end of the year.With the government shutdown, the normal economic releases will not take place.
USD EUR
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3305 as 200-hour MA rejects recovery attempt

GBP/USD has declined sharply to a new session low of 1.32865, falling approximately 50 pips from its intraday high following a failed recovery attempt. The pair initially rallied after softer-than-expected US CPI data but encountered strong selling pressure at the 100-hour moving average, prompting a reversal. The rejection at this key technical level shifted momentum decisively bearish, with the pair subsequently breaking below the critical swing area between 1.3323-1.3341 and piercing through the early-week support at 1.3305. This breakdown suggests further downside potential, with immediate support now seen at 1.3280 and psychological level at 1.3250. The failure to sustain gains despite favorable US inflation data highlights underlying sterling weakness and suggests traders remain cautious on GBP positioning. Near-term resistance has formed at the broken 1.3305 level, with the 100-hour MA continuing to cap upside attempts.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
rttnews.com

USD weakens as softer CPI boosts Fed rate cut expectations

The US Dollar Index dropped 0.8% following the release of softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index data, with major currency pairs seeing significant movements. US CPI came in below forecasts, reigniting market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. EUR/USD surged 0.9% to 1.0950, while GBP/USD gained 0.7% to 1.2230. USD/JPY retreated 1.2% to 149.50 as the yen strengthened on risk-off sentiment. The softer inflation reading has shifted market pricing to a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut by March 2025, up from 40% before the data release. Technical indicators suggest further dollar weakness possible, with the DXY approaching key support at 104.20. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed speakers for any pushback against dovish market interpretation, while the path of least resistance appears lower for the dollar in the near term.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD rises as Eurozone PMI beats expectations, ECB holds steady

EUR/USD gained 0.25% to 1.0875 following stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data that reinforced the ECB's decision to maintain current policy rates. October's flash Services PMI jumped to 52.6 from 51.3, significantly exceeding the 51.1 forecast, while Manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.0 versus 49.8 expected. The Composite PMI climbed to 52.2, well above the anticipated 51.0, driven primarily by German economic outperformance. The robust services sector expansion and resilient employment conditions support the ECB's pause stance, though moderating inflation pressures remain insufficient to trigger policy easing. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing resistance at 1.0900, with momentum building on the PMI beat. Support lies at 1.0830 (previous session low). Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for any shifts in policy guidance, as sustained economic resilience could delay future rate cuts and provide additional euro support.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

Gold drops as USD strengthens before CPI; geopolitical risks rise

Gold prices declined 0.8% to $2,725 per ounce as the US dollar gained strength ahead of crucial CPI inflation data. The DXY index rose 0.3% to 106.20, pressuring the precious metal lower despite escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut for December with 65% probability, though stronger-than-expected CPI data could reduce these expectations. Technical analysis shows immediate support at $2,710, with the 50-day moving average at $2,695 providing stronger backing. Resistance stands at $2,750, last week's high. Bitcoin's surge above $75,000 is also diverting some safe-haven flows from gold. Traders should monitor the CPI release closely, as a reading above the 2.3% forecast could trigger further gold selling while geopolitical developments may provide underlying support.
XAUUSD DXY EURUSD BTCUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD steady as markets await CPI; data expected to be non-event

The US dollar index consolidated near 106.15 as forex markets adopted a wait-and-see approach before today's CPI inflation report. Analysts expect the data to show core CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, unchanged from September, potentially making it a non-event for currency traders. EUR/USD trades sideways at 1.0535, while USD/CAD holds firm at 1.3950. The Federal Reserve has already telegraphed a gradual easing cycle, with markets fully pricing in 50 basis points of cuts by March 2025. Technical indicators suggest the dollar is in a neutral range, with DXY support at 105.80 and resistance at 106.50. The lack of major economic surprises recently has led to decreased volatility across major pairs. Traders should prepare for potential range-bound trading unless CPI delivers a significant surprise above 3.5% or below 3.1%.
EURUSD USDCAD DXY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD consolidates at 1.0540; downside risks dominate outlook

EUR/USD remains trapped in a tight consolidation pattern around 1.0540, with technical indicators suggesting potential downside momentum building. The pair has failed to break above the 1.0580 resistance level for three consecutive sessions, while the DXY maintains strength above 106.00. European economic data continues to disappoint, with German industrial production falling 2.5% month-over-month, worse than the -1.0% forecast. The ECB's dovish stance contrasts with the Fed's measured approach to rate cuts, creating a fundamental headwind for the euro. Technical analysis reveals a descending triangle pattern forming on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.0480 if support at 1.0520 breaks. The 200-day moving average at 1.0615 caps upside potential. Traders should watch for a decisive break below 1.0520, which could accelerate losses toward the yearly low at 1.0450.
EURUSD DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Markets await CPI amid Fed cut expectations; volatility remains low

Global forex markets are experiencing unusually low volatility as traders await the US CPI release, with major pairs confined to narrow ranges. EUR/USD hovers near 1.0540, USD/JPY consolidates around 152.80, while the S&P 500 futures edge 0.2% higher. The data blackout period has left markets directionless, with Fed rate cuts for December already 70% priced in at 25 basis points. The DXY trades sideways at 106.10, reflecting the market's neutral stance. Implied volatility measures have dropped to three-month lows across major currency pairs, suggesting traders expect limited market movement even after the CPI release. Technical patterns show most pairs trading within established ranges, with EUR/USD between 1.0520-1.0580 and USD/JPY bounded by 152.00-153.50. The calm before potential storm conditions warrant caution, as any CPI surprise could trigger outsized moves.
EURUSD USDJPY DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/CAD rebounds to 1.3970; bulls target 1.4080 resistance

USD/CAD has staged a strong rebound, climbing 0.5% to 1.3970 as the Canadian dollar weakened on declining oil prices and dovish Bank of Canada expectations. WTI crude fell 2.1% to $71.20 per barrel, pressuring the commodity-linked loonie. Technical momentum has turned bullish after the pair bounced from support at 1.3910, with the RSI rising above 50 and MACD showing a bullish crossover. The next resistance target sits at 1.4080, the October high, with intermediate resistance at 1.4020. Canadian inflation data due next week could provide further directional catalyst, with expectations for a continued cooling to 1.9% year-over-year. The BoC has already cut rates by 75 basis points this cycle and markets price in another 25bp reduction in December. A sustained break above 1.4080 would open the path toward 1.4150, the year-to-date high.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY and USD/CHF face pressure after weak CPI drives rate cut bets

USD/JPY declined 1.1% to 149.80 while USD/CHF fell 0.9% to 0.8650 as the US dollar weakened following disappointing inflation data. The softer CPI reading has triggered a significant repricing in interest rate expectations, with the yield curve steepening as traders position for potential Fed easing. The Dollar Index futures dropped to 104.50, testing critical support levels. Safe-haven currencies JPY and CHF are benefiting from both dollar weakness and increased market uncertainty. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking below the 150.00 psychological level and approaching the 200-day moving average at 149.20. USD/CHF has violated its ascending trendline support, with next major support at 0.8600. Market positioning data suggests leveraged funds are increasingly bearish on the dollar, potentially accelerating the downward momentum if key support levels fail to hold.
USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Risk-off sentiment hits USD pairs as equity indices unwind gains

Major USD currency pairs experienced heightened volatility as US equity indices reversed earlier gains, with the S&P 500 falling 1.2% and Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. EUR/USD consolidated around 1.0920 after reaching intraday highs of 1.0950, while GBP/USD pulled back to 1.2200 from 1.2240. USD/JPY found support at 149.50 as risk-off flows benefited the yen. The Russell 2000's 2.1% decline highlighted concerns about small-cap vulnerability in a slowing growth environment. Fresh long positions established after the CPI release are being unwound as traders reassess the sustainability of the dollar's weakness. Technical indicators suggest short-term oversold conditions in the dollar, potentially setting up a relief bounce. However, the broader trend remains bearish for USD pairs unless upcoming economic data significantly beats expectations. Traders should watch for any stabilization in equity markets as a potential catalyst for USD recovery.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/JPY faces pressure as Japan PM Takaichi signals fiscal responsibility

USD/JPY traded cautiously around 151.80 following Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's commitment to responsible fiscal policy, marking a shift from her previously hawkish stance. The PM emphasized an 'economy first, then fiscal policy' approach, pledging to reduce Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio while maintaining market confidence. Her announcement includes plans to compile economic measures and submit a supplementary budget to parliament. This more moderate fiscal stance could ease pressure on the Bank of Japan to normalize policy aggressively, potentially limiting yen strength. Market participants note Takaichi's rhetoric appears more restrained now that she holds office, suggesting a pragmatic approach to balancing growth and fiscal sustainability. Technical resistance for USD/JPY remains at 152.20, with support established at 151.40. Traders await concrete policy details to gauge the actual impact on the yen's trajectory.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

GBP/USD stabilizes at 1.2160 amid Fed hawks and rising BoE cut expectations

GBP/USD is trading sideways around 1.2160, caught between opposing forces as hawkish Fed rhetoric supports the dollar while growing Bank of England rate cut expectations weigh on sterling. The Dollar Index has recovered to 105.20 from earlier lows, aided by Fed officials pushing back against aggressive easing expectations. UK 2-year gilt yields fell 8 basis points to 4.15% as markets price in a 70% chance of a BoE rate cut by February, up from 55% last week. US 2-year Treasury yields remain elevated at 4.35%, maintaining the interest rate differential in favor of the dollar. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD trapped in a narrow 1.2140-1.2180 range, with a break below potentially targeting 1.2100 support. The pair awaits fresh catalysts from upcoming UK inflation data and Fed meeting minutes, with downside risks mounting as BoE dovishness increasingly outweighs Fed easing expectations.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
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