The full statement from the Fed.December 10, 2025Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. ESTAvailable indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September.
Source: Finnhub
US crude oil inventories declined by 1.812 million barrels, falling short of the expected 2.310 million drawdown, while gasoline stocks surged 6.397 million barrels, significantly exceeding the 2.764 million estimate. The mixed energy data has created volatility in commodity-linked currencies, with USDCAD trading near 1.4180 as oil prices remain under pressure. AUDUSD and NZDUSD showed limited reaction, holding near 0.6380 and 0.5820 respectively, as traders focus on broader dollar dynamics ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The larger-than-expected gasoline build suggests weaker demand conditions, potentially weighing on inflation expectations and supporting dovish Fed sentiment. Technical indicators show USDCAD facing resistance at 1.4200, while support emerges at 1.4150. Energy market dynamics remain crucial for commodity currencies, with further inventory builds likely to pressure CAD, AUD, and NZD against the greenback.
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Major USD pairs are trading in tight ranges as markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision amid mixed signals from committee members. EURUSD hovers near 1.0520, while GBPUSD consolidates around 1.2730, with implied volatility rising ahead of the announcement. The divergence in Fed officials' views regarding 2026 monetary policy has created uncertainty, with markets pricing in a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut this meeting. Asian currencies showed mixed performance, with USDJPY holding above 152.00 as traders weigh potential BoJ intervention risks. The dollar index (DXY) remains elevated near 106.50, supported by resilient US economic data but capped by rate cut expectations. Key resistance for EURUSD sits at 1.0550, while support emerges at 1.0500. Traders should expect heightened volatility post-Fed, particularly if the committee's dot plot reveals significant changes to the 2026 rate outlook.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index trades unchanged near 106.45 as forex markets adopt a cautious stance before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. EURUSD remains range-bound at 1.0525, while GBPUSD holds steady near 1.2735 amid pre-Fed positioning. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut with focus shifting to forward guidance and the dot plot projections for 2025-2026. Oracle's upcoming earnings could influence tech sector sentiment, potentially affecting risk-sensitive currencies like AUDUSD (0.6385) and NZDUSD (0.5825). Asian session saw USDJPY consolidate near 152.20 as traders balance Fed expectations against BoJ policy divergence. Technical analysis shows EURUSD facing resistance at 1.0550 and support at 1.0500, with a breakout likely post-Fed. The combination of monetary policy uncertainty and corporate earnings creates a volatile environment for USD pairs through week-end.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index has softened following the release of Q3 Employment Cost Index data showing a 0.8% quarterly increase, below the 0.9% consensus forecast. This miss suggests moderating wage pressures that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. Year-over-year compensation growth remained steady at 3.5% for both civilian and private-sector workers, with private wages specifically rising 3.6%. The data indicates inflation pressures from labor costs are cooling, as real wages improved only modestly by 0.6% annually. State and local government compensation increased 3.6% yearly, driven by a 3.8% rise in benefits. For forex traders, the weaker-than-expected wage growth reinforces expectations of a potential Fed pause or slower pace of rate adjustments in 2025. Major USD pairs are likely to see increased volatility as markets reassess the dollar's yield advantage, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD potentially testing recent resistance levels if dollar weakness persists.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EURUSD has stabilized near 1.0520 after recent declines, with any sustainable recovery hinging on the Federal Reserve's confirmation of continued easing through 2026. The pair has found support at the 1.0500 psychological level, bouncing 0.15% from intraday lows as dollar bulls take profit ahead of the FOMC meeting. Current market pricing suggests three rate cuts in 2025, but uncertainty remains about the Fed's longer-term trajectory given persistent inflation concerns. The dollar index (DXY) consolidates near 106.50, with technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions. European economic data remains mixed, with German industrial production disappointing while French inflation holds steady. EURUSD faces immediate resistance at 1.0550, followed by the 50-day moving average at 1.0580. A hawkish Fed surprise could push the pair toward 1.0450, while validation of easing expectations might catalyze a recovery toward 1.0620.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USDJPY has paused its recent advance, trading sideways near 152.20 as the Japanese yen demonstrates unexpected resilience despite the wide US-Japan rate differential. The pair retreated 0.2% from session highs of 152.45, with traders cautious about potential Bank of Japan intervention above the 152.50 level. Recent comments from BoJ officials suggest growing confidence in achieving sustainable 2% inflation, fueling speculation about policy normalization in early 2025. Meanwhile, the dollar's strength is being tested ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with markets focused on the dot plot's implications for future rate cuts. Technical indicators show USDJPY facing strong resistance at 152.50-152.80, while support has formed at 151.50. The 14-day RSI at 68 suggests limited upside momentum without fresh catalysts. Traders should monitor Japanese wage data and Fed guidance for directional cues this week.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated 0.2% to 106.45 as markets position for Wednesday's FOMC meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected with 95% probability according to Fed funds futures. This could mark Jerome Powell's final easing move before potential policy shifts under the incoming administration. Recent economic data shows US inflation remains sticky at 2.7% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target, while unemployment sits at 4.2%. USD/JPY has declined 0.4% to 151.20 as safe-haven flows favor the yen amid uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest DXY support at 106.00, with resistance at 107.00. Markets are particularly focused on the Fed's dot plot projections and Powell's forward guidance, as any hawkish tilt could reverse dollar weakness. Traders should monitor the 2pm ET rate decision and subsequent press conference for volatility triggers.
USDJPY
DXY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has consolidated near 1.0530, down 0.1% in early trading, as markets prepare for a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut. Despite expectations of a 25bp reduction, persistent US inflation at 2.7% and robust labor markets suggest the Fed may signal a pause in further easing. USD/CAD has climbed 0.3% to 1.4285, benefiting from dollar strength and softer oil prices, with WTI crude down 1.2% to $69.80. The Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm at 106.50, supported by rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year reaching 4.42%. Key resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.0600, while support has formed at 1.0500. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.4320. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility during the FOMC announcement, particularly if Powell's tone diverges from market expectations of continued dovishness.
EURUSD
USDCAD
DXY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has extended its rally to 1.2785, gaining 0.4% (50 pips) as sterling continues to outperform major peers. The pound's strength stems from expectations that the Bank of England will maintain higher rates for longer, with UK inflation still running at 4.2% annually. Technical momentum has accelerated after breaking above the 1.2750 resistance level, with the pair now testing the critical 1.2800 psychological barrier. The 14-day RSI at 68 suggests bullish momentum remains intact without reaching overbought territory. Daily trading volume has increased 25% above the 20-day average, confirming strong buyer interest. A decisive break above 1.2800 could open the path toward 1.2850 and potentially 1.2900. Support has formed at 1.2750 (previous resistance turned support) and 1.2700 (50-day moving average). Traders should watch for any dovish shifts from the BoE that could cap sterling gains.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Major USD pairs are trading in tight ranges during the European session, with traders exercising caution ahead of today's pivotal central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting at 19:00 GMT is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.25-4.50%. Markets are pricing in a 95% probability of this cut, with focus shifting to Chair Powell's forward guidance and the updated dot plot projections. Earlier at 14:45 GMT, the Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision, with consensus expecting a 50bp cut to 3.25% amid slowing economic growth. USD/CAD hovers near 1.4250, while EUR/USD consolidates around 1.0530. The absence of European economic data has contributed to the subdued price action. Traders should expect increased volatility post-announcements, with potential breakouts from current ranges depending on the tone of central bank communications.
USDCAD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/RUB is experiencing downward pressure amid growing speculation of potential peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, with President Zelensky expected to respond to Trump's peace proposal on Wednesday. Oil prices have been declining partly due to peace hopes, as any agreement could include sanctions relief allowing Russian crude to flow more freely into global markets. While the probability of a successful deal remains low, the mere possibility of negotiations is weighing on the dollar against the ruble. Markets are positioning for potential sanctions relief that would strengthen Russia's currency and increase oil supply. Technical indicators suggest USD/RUB could test lower support levels if peace talks gain momentum. The situation remains highly fluid, with rapid developments possible given Trump's reported leverage over Ukraine regarding territorial concessions. Traders should monitor Wednesday's announcement closely for immediate market impact.
USDRUB
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
