AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

seekingalpha.com

Dec 4, 2025

USD/JPY Drops Below 155.00: Has The 2025 Yearly Top Been Reached?

After two months of a relentless rout in the Yen, the Japanese currency is finally finding some stable ground.The core of the current...

USDJPY

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Dec 4, 2025

EUR/USD Rises as European Markets Rally on Fed Rate Cut Expectations

EUR/USD gained 0.2% to 1.0545 as European equity markets closed higher across the board, with Spain's Ibex and Germany's DAX leading gains. The euro's strength reflects growing market confidence that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting, despite stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Market pricing shows an 85% probability of a December cut, as traders focus on the diverging monetary policy paths between the ECB and Fed. The DAX's technical breakout above 19,500 provides additional support for euro sentiment, while GBP/USD consolidated near 1.2720. Immediate resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.0570 (50-day MA), with support at 1.0520. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB officials' speeches for any hawkish signals that could accelerate euro gains, particularly as the dollar faces pressure from persistent rate cut expectations.

EURUSD GBPUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

investinghaven.com

Dec 4, 2025

Italy’s Gold Politics: Central - Bank Independence Versus Fiscal Pressure

Explore Italy’s Gold Politics and the implications of reclassifying the central bank gold for fiscal use and market stability.

EURUSD

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Dec 4, 2025

USDCAD rises on jobless claims but halts at key resistance level

USDCAD surged approximately 0.25% (35 pips) to 1.4025 following stronger-than-expected US jobless claims data, with claims dropping to 191K versus the 220K forecast. This significant miss reinforced USD strength as it suggests a resilient US labor market, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. However, the pair's advance was capped at the 1.4030 resistance zone, which coincides with the 50-day moving average and previous November highs. Technical indicators show the pair remains in a consolidation phase between 1.3980 support and 1.4030 resistance. A decisive break above 1.4030 could open the path toward 1.4080, while failure to sustain current levels may see a retest of 1.3980. Traders should monitor upcoming Canadian GDP data and OPEC+ decisions, as oil price movements significantly impact CAD valuation.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

rttnews.com

Dec 4, 2025

USD Weakens Despite Strong Jobs Data as Fed Cut Bets Persist

The US dollar index fell 0.15% to 106.20 as markets maintained aggressive bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut, despite better-than-expected employment data. The resilient jobs report, showing unemployment at 4.1% and wage growth at 3.9% year-over-year, failed to alter market expectations for monetary easing. Fed funds futures continue to price in a 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting, reflecting traders' conviction that the Fed will prioritize growth concerns over inflation risks. This divergence between strong data and dovish market positioning has created unusual dollar weakness across major pairs. Technical indicators suggest the dollar index could test support at 106.00, with resistance at 106.50. The disconnect between economic fundamentals and rate expectations presents both opportunities and risks for forex traders, particularly in USD crosses ahead of next week's Fed decision.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

DAX Breakout Boosts EUR While GBP/USD Faces Technical Resistance

Germany's DAX index surged 0.8% to close at 19,650, breaking key technical resistance and supporting euro strength across forex markets. The index's momentum above the 19,500 level signals continued risk-on sentiment in European assets, providing fundamental support for EUR/USD's advance toward 1.0550. Meanwhile, GBP/USD consolidated near 1.2720, facing resistance at the 200-day moving average despite broad dollar weakness. The pound's underperformance reflects ongoing concerns about UK economic growth and Bank of England policy uncertainty. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD needs to clear 1.2750 to confirm bullish momentum, while support sits at 1.2680. The contrasting performance between EUR and GBP highlights diverging European economic outlooks. Traders should watch for a potential EUR/GBP long opportunity if the cross breaks above 0.8330, targeting 0.8360 as European equities continue to outperform.

EURUSD GBPUSD EURGBP

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

EUR/USD Gains on Diverging ECB-Fed Policy Paths

EUR/USD advanced 0.35% to 1.0550 as markets price in diverging monetary policy trajectories between the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. The pair's momentum reflects growing expectations for a Fed rate cut in December while the ECB maintains a more cautious stance on easing. Technical indicators show EUR/USD breaking above the 50-day moving average at 1.0530, with next resistance at 1.0580. GBP/USD added 0.2% to 1.2720, while USD/JPY retreated 0.4% to 149.50 as the dollar broadly weakened. AUD/USD climbed 0.3% to 0.6480, supported by risk-on sentiment and commodity price stability. The divergence theme dominated trading, with European currencies outperforming as traders position for potential ECB hawkish surprises versus Fed dovishness. Near-term catalysts include Friday's US NFP data and next week's ECB meeting, which could accelerate the policy divergence trade if data supports current market positioning.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Dec 4, 2025

EUR/USD flat at 1.0800 as Eurozone retail sales meet expectations

EUR/USD remained unchanged at 1.0800 following the release of Eurozone October retail sales data, which came in at 0.0% month-over-month, matching market expectations. The September figure was revised upward from -0.1% to +0.1%, suggesting slightly better consumer demand. The breakdown revealed mixed consumer behavior, with increased spending on food, drinks, tobacco, and automotive fuel offsetting declines in non-food product purchases. This stability in retail sales provides marginal support for the euro amid broader concerns about economic growth in the region. Technical resistance remains at 1.0850, while support holds at 1.0750. Traders await upcoming ECB policy signals and US economic data for directional clarity, with the pair likely to remain range-bound in the near term absent fresh catalysts.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

GBP/USD extends rally on widening UK-US interest rate differential

GBP/USD has extended its bullish momentum, climbing 0.5% to test 1.2750 resistance as markets focus on the diverging monetary policy paths between the Bank of England and Federal Reserve. The pound's strength reflects expectations that the BoE will maintain higher rates for longer to combat persistent UK inflation, while Fed rate cut speculation grows amid softening US economic data. Sterling has gained over 200 pips from recent lows, with technical indicators showing strong upward momentum. The 50-day moving average at 1.2680 now acts as immediate support, while a break above 1.2750 could target the psychological 1.2800 level. Traders should monitor upcoming UK inflation data and Fed officials' speeches for potential catalysts that could either accelerate the pound's gains or trigger profit-taking in the stretched positioning.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

USD weakness accelerates as negative seasonality patterns emerge

The US dollar is experiencing broad-based weakness across major and emerging market pairs, with seasonal factors adding to fundamental pressures. EUR/USD has pushed above 1.0800, while USD/ZAR and USD/SEK are retreating from recent highs as year-end flows typically favor risk currencies over the dollar. December historically shows negative performance for the greenback as institutional rebalancing and reduced liquidity amplify moves. The Dollar Index has fallen 0.4% this week, breaking below key technical support at 106.00. Cross pairs like EUR/SEK are also adjusting to dollar weakness, creating opportunities in non-USD trades. Market positioning data suggests further dollar selling could accelerate if upcoming US economic releases disappoint. Traders should prepare for increased volatility and potential trend reversals as thin holiday markets can exaggerate price movements through year-end.

EURUSD USDZAR USDSEK EURSEK

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Dec 4, 2025

USD/CHF steady as Swiss unemployment holds at 3.0% in November

USD/CHF remains unchanged near 0.8850 following Switzerland's November unemployment data, which came in line with expectations at 3.0%, matching the previous month's reading. While the headline figure suggests stability, underlying labor market conditions continue to show gradual softening, a trend that has caught the Swiss National Bank's attention. The steady unemployment rate masks emerging weakness in job creation and rising jobless claims in certain sectors. SNB officials have indicated growing concerns about economic headwinds, particularly from weakening European demand and global trade uncertainties. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of future SNB rate cuts, with some analysts suggesting the central bank may eventually need to return to negative interest rates. Technical levels show USD/CHF trading in a narrow range, with resistance at 0.8900 and support at 0.8820, as traders await clearer directional catalysts from upcoming Swiss inflation data and SNB policy guidance.

USDCHF

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

USD pairs see sentiment shift as dollar weakness triggers repositioning

Major USD pairs are experiencing significant sentiment shifts as broad dollar weakness prompts traders to reassess positions. EUR/USD has broken above 1.0800 resistance, GBP/USD tests 1.2750, while USD/JPY retreats toward 150.00 support levels. The move coincides with softer US economic data and growing expectations of Fed policy adjustments in 2024. Risk sentiment has improved, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.2%, further pressuring the safe-haven dollar. Technical indicators across USD pairs show oversold conditions developing, suggesting potential for near-term consolidation. However, the fundamental backdrop remains challenging for the dollar, with inflation cooling faster than expected. Traders are rotating into higher-yielding currencies and risk assets, marking a potential shift in the dominant trend that characterized much of 2024's dollar strength.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

USD/JPY braces for volatility as BoJ December rate hike looms

USD/JPY is trading cautiously around 150.50 as markets position for a likely Bank of Japan rate hike in December, with uncertainty surrounding the terminal rate path adding to volatility expectations. Japanese 10-year yields have risen to 1.05%, their highest since July, reflecting growing confidence in BoJ policy normalization. The central bank's unclear communication about where rates might peak has created a two-way risk for the pair. Technical analysis shows strong support at 150.00, coinciding with the psychological level and 100-day moving average, while resistance sits at 151.50. Options data indicates elevated implied volatility for December expiries, suggesting traders expect significant moves around the BoJ meeting. A hawkish surprise could drive USD/JPY below 149.00, while disappointment might see a relief rally toward 152.00.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

forexcrunch.com

Dec 4, 2025

EUR/USD advances on ECB-Fed policy divergence and weak US ADP data

EUR/USD gained 0.4% (45 pips) to reach 1.0520, driven by growing monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve. Weaker-than-expected US ADP employment data showed only 146K jobs added versus 185K forecast, increasing dovish Fed rate cut expectations for 2025. Markets now price in a 70% probability of a December Fed rate cut, while the ECB maintains a more cautious approach to easing. The euro found additional support from improving Eurozone business confidence indicators and stabilizing energy prices. Technical momentum remains bullish with the pair breaking above the 1.0500 psychological level and 20-day moving average. Immediate resistance stands at 1.0550, followed by the November high at 1.0600. Support levels are established at 1.0480 and 1.0450. Continued USD weakness could propel EUR/USD toward the 1.0600 target, particularly if Friday's NFP data disappoints.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

AUD/USD jumps as hot inflation data sparks February RBA hike expectations

AUD/USD rallied 0.8% (55 pips) to 0.6480 after Australia's monthly inflation indicator surprised to the upside, printing at 2.3% year-over-year versus 2.1% expected. The stronger inflation pulse has dramatically shifted RBA rate expectations, with markets now pricing in a 45% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in February 2025, up from near zero just days ago. Core inflation measures also exceeded forecasts, with trimmed mean CPI rising to 3.5%, well above the RBA's 2-3% target band. This contrasts sharply with other major central banks' easing bias, creating a favorable interest rate differential for the Australian dollar. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD breaking above the key 0.6450 resistance level, opening the path toward 0.6520 and potentially 0.6550. The pair maintains strong bullish momentum above all major moving averages, with support now established at 0.6430.

AUDUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Dec 4, 2025

USD faces uncertainty as NFP data delayed before Fed decision

The absence of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report this week creates significant uncertainty for USD pairs, particularly as the Federal Reserve approaches its December 10 policy decision without crucial labor market data. This unusual timing has sparked speculation about whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics deliberately scheduled the release to avoid presenting potentially stronger employment figures that could complicate the Fed's anticipated rate cut decision. USD pairs have shown mixed reactions, with traders cautiously positioning ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. The data void leaves the Fed relying on older employment metrics and alternative indicators, potentially increasing market volatility. Technical levels show EURUSD hovering near 1.0550, while USDJPY maintains support around 149.50. The lack of fresh employment data could actually increase the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, as the Fed may lean toward caution without updated labor market confirmation.

EURUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

NZD/USD breakout targets higher levels as technical momentum builds

NZD/USD surged 0.6% (40 pips) to 0.5920, completing a significant technical breakout above the 0.5880 resistance level that had capped gains for three weeks. The move higher was supported by broad USD weakness and positive risk sentiment in equity markets, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.5%. Technical indicators show strong bullish momentum, with the RSI rising to 62 and MACD crossing above its signal line. The breakout opens immediate targets at 0.5950 and the psychological 0.6000 level, which hasn't been tested since early November. Volume increased notably during the breakout, confirming buyer conviction. Support levels are now established at 0.5880 (former resistance turned support) and 0.5840 (20-day moving average). Traders should watch for any RBNZ communication and global risk sentiment shifts that could impact the kiwi's trajectory.

NZDUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Dec 4, 2025

AUD/USD rallies on consumer spending surge, markets price RBA hikes

AUD/USD advanced 0.65% (45 pips) to 0.6475 after Australian retail sales data revealed a robust 0.6% monthly increase, doubling economist expectations of 0.3%. The spending surge, particularly in discretionary categories, challenges the RBA's view that household consumption remains subdued. Markets have aggressively repriced RBA expectations, with overnight index swaps now indicating a 40% chance of a rate hike by March 2025, compared to rate cut expectations just last week. The Australian 3-year bond yield jumped 12 basis points to 4.15%, reflecting the hawkish shift. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD maintaining momentum above the 200-day moving average at 0.6440, with next resistance at 0.6500. The combination of sticky inflation and resilient consumer spending positions the RBA as an outlier among developed market central banks, supporting further AUD strength against currencies where easing is expected.

AUDUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Dec 4, 2025

AUD/USD holds session highs above 0.6605 on stronger trade surplus

AUD/USD maintains its upward momentum, holding at session highs above 0.6605 following Australia's October trade balance data. The trade surplus came in at A$4,385 million, exceeding market expectations of A$4,219 million, providing additional support for the Australian dollar. The better-than-expected trade performance reflects robust export dynamics and strengthens the fundamental outlook for the AUD. The pair had been rising prior to the data release, suggesting underlying bullish sentiment was already in place. Technical analysis shows the currency pair has broken above the 0.6600 psychological level, with immediate resistance likely around 0.6620-0.6630. Support has formed at 0.6580, the previous consolidation zone. The positive trade data reinforces Australia's economic resilience and may encourage traders to maintain long positions in AUD/USD, particularly if commodity prices remain supportive and risk sentiment stays constructive in Asian markets.

AUDUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub