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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, December 18, 2025

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News Statistics for Thursday, December 18, 2025

13
Total Articles
1
Bullish
6
Bearish
6
Neutral

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Archive date: Thursday, December 18, 2025

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Forexlive

The Trump - Biden era will ultimately be remembered for one thing

At the end of the day, a government's economic job is to spend money and collect taxes. The ones that spend too much ultimately have to pay it back, with interest. Running deficits is almost always popular with voters , particularly when it makes the stock market go up.BCA today has a great chart showing just how much more the US has been spending than any other major economy.
USD EUR
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD weakens as soft CPI triggers equity rally, impacts major FX pairs

The US dollar index fell 0.8% to 106.50 as softer-than-expected CPI data sparked a broad risk-on rally across markets. November CPI came in at 2.7% YoY, below the 2.9% forecast, while core CPI matched expectations at 3.3%. The data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut at today's FOMC meeting, with markets now pricing in a 97% probability of a 25bp reduction. Major forex pairs responded sharply, with EUR/USD climbing 0.6% to 1.0520 and GBP/USD advancing 0.7% to 1.2780. The softer inflation print has shifted near-term dollar sentiment negative, with technical indicators showing the DXY breaking below its 50-day moving average at 106.80. Traders should monitor the Fed's dot plot projections for 2025, which could either amplify or reverse current USD weakness depending on the hawkishness of future rate guidance.
EURUSD GBPUSD DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

EUR/USD tests resistance after breaking 100-hour MA on hawkish ECB outlook

EUR/USD has climbed above its 100-hour moving average following the ECB's latest policy meeting, testing key resistance levels as traders digest hawkish inflation projections. The central bank maintained current rates but revised 2026 inflation forecasts higher, with both headline and core inflation now expected to decline more gradually toward the 2% target. The upward revision stems primarily from persistent services inflation, while growth projections also improved modestly. Staff forecasts indicate inflation will remain elevated longer than previously anticipated, supporting a cautious approach to future rate cuts. The pair faces immediate resistance at the recent swing high, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential if this level breaks. Traders are positioning for a potentially slower pace of ECB easing in 2025, which could provide additional support for the euro against the dollar in coming sessions.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/JPY extends decline below 152.00 on persistent bearish momentum

USD/JPY continued its downward trajectory, falling 0.4% to 151.80 as bearish sentiment intensifies ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision. The pair has now declined over 3% from last week's highs near 157.00, with selling pressure accelerating after breaking below the key 153.00 support level. Market positioning data shows speculative shorts on the yen have been unwinding rapidly, contributing to JPY strength across the board. Technical indicators remain firmly bearish, with the RSI at 35 signaling oversold conditions that could prompt a brief consolidation. Immediate support lies at 151.50 (November low), while resistance has formed at 152.50 (former support turned resistance). The BoJ's stance on potential rate adjustments and any hints about ending negative rates could trigger significant volatility, with a hawkish surprise potentially accelerating USD/JPY's decline toward the 150.00 psychological level.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD volatility rises ahead of Fed, ECB decisions; DXY under pressure

Foreign exchange markets are experiencing heightened volatility as traders position for a crucial week of central bank meetings. EUR/USD implied volatility has surged to 8.2%, the highest level in three months, as markets await both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy decisions. The dollar index (DXY) has retreated 0.5% to 106.75, pressured by expectations of a dovish Fed pivot following softer US CPI data. EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.0500, caught between diverging monetary policy expectations. While the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bp, the ECB is likely to maintain its hawkish stance amid persistent eurozone inflation concerns. Key levels to watch include 1.0550 resistance and 1.0450 support on EUR/USD, with a break in either direction likely to establish the pair's trend into year-end. Central bank forward guidance will be crucial for determining relative currency strength.
EURUSD DXY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

S&P 500 Eyes Bounce at 6750 After Sharp Selloff, Risk Sentiment Key

S&P 500 futures have stabilized near 6775 following this week's sharp selloff, with traders eyeing the 6750 support level as a potential bounce zone. The index dropped over 2% earlier in the week amid concerns over Federal Reserve policy tightening and year-end profit-taking. Order flow analysis shows short-covering activity beginning to emerge, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the near term. The shift in equity market dynamics directly impacts forex risk sentiment, with safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF maintaining bid tones while risk-sensitive pairs including AUD/USD and NZD/USD remain under pressure. Key resistance stands at 6825, with a break above potentially signaling improved risk appetite. Traders should monitor whether the 6750 support holds, as a breakdown could trigger further risk-off flows, strengthening USD and JPY against commodity currencies.
AUDUSD NZDUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

GBP/USD Tests 1.2650 Support as Stretched Shorts Limit Downside

GBP/USD trades defensively near 1.2650, down 0.4% on the day, as sterling struggles amid UK economic uncertainty and dollar strength. Despite the bearish price action, heavily stretched short positioning in GBP may limit further downside, with CFTC data showing near-record net short positions among speculative traders. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2700 (50-day moving average), while support emerges at 1.2630 (November low). EUR/GBP has climbed to 0.8320 as the euro outperforms, while GBP/NOK shows resilience near 14.20 levels. Market positioning suggests any positive UK data surprises could trigger a sharp short-covering rally in sterling. However, with Bank of England rate cut expectations building and UK growth concerns persisting, the medium-term outlook remains challenging. Traders should watch for potential position squeezes above 1.2700.
GBPUSD EURGBP GBPNOK
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD Plunges to 1.2620 as Weak UK CPI Boosts BoE Cut Bets

GBP/USD has tumbled 0.8% to 1.2620 following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data that reignited Bank of England rate cut speculation. UK CPI fell to 2.5% year-over-year in November, missing forecasts of 2.6%, while core inflation dropped to 3.5% from 3.7%. The soft inflation print has pushed market pricing for a December BoE rate cut to 65% probability, up from 40% before the data release. Sterling weakness accelerated through key technical support at 1.2650, with the pair now testing the 1.2600 psychological level. The disappointing CPI data compounds existing concerns about UK economic growth, with recent PMI surveys showing contraction in manufacturing activity. Near-term support lies at 1.2580 (October low), while resistance has formed at the broken 1.2650 level. Further BoE dovishness could extend losses toward 1.2500.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD faces pressure as US CPI looms with 3% inflation target debate

GBP/USD is trading cautiously around 1.2650 as markets await Wednesday's crucial US Consumer Price Index data, which could reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations. Economists forecast November CPI to show 2.7% year-over-year inflation, up from 2.6% in October, while core CPI is expected to remain sticky at 3.3%. The debate over whether the Fed might tolerate inflation closer to 3% rather than the traditional 2% target has intensified, potentially affecting dollar strength. Recent Fed officials' comments suggest growing acceptance of higher inflation levels, which could limit further rate cuts in 2025. For GBP/USD, immediate resistance sits at 1.2700, with support found at 1.2600. A CPI reading above consensus could strengthen the dollar and push the pair toward 1.2550, while a softer print might allow cable to test 1.2750. Traders should monitor both the headline and core figures for directional cues.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

NZD/USD Gains Limited to 0.5750 Despite NZ Growth Recovery

NZD/USD has edged 0.2% higher to 0.5730 after New Zealand Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, growing 0.6% quarter-over-quarter versus 0.4% expected. Despite the positive growth data, the kiwi's gains remain capped as markets question whether the economic rebound can be sustained amid aggressive RBNZ rate cuts. The central bank has already reduced rates by 125 basis points this cycle, with another 50bp cut priced for February. Technical resistance at 0.5750 continues to cap advances, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Support holds at 0.5680, last week's low. The GDP beat marks New Zealand's exit from technical recession, but elevated household debt and cooling housing market conditions suggest the recovery remains fragile. Traders remain cautious on NZD upside potential given the RBNZ's dovish stance and global growth concerns weighing on commodity currencies.
NZDUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexcrunch.com

AUD/USD Slides to 0.6280 on Risk-Off Flows Ahead of US CPI

AUD/USD has declined 0.6% to 0.6280 as risk-off sentiment grips markets ahead of crucial US inflation data. The Australian dollar faces dual pressure from sliding equity markets, with S&P 500 futures down 1.2%, and rising safe-haven demand boosting USD and JPY. Iron ore prices dropping 2.5% to $102/ton further undermines AUD support, reflecting concerns about Chinese demand. Technical analysis shows the pair breaking below the 0.6300 psychological support, opening the path toward 0.6250 (December low). Resistance now stands at 0.6320 (broken support turned resistance). Markets await US CPI data due later today, with expectations for a 0.3% monthly increase. A higher-than-expected reading could accelerate AUD/USD losses toward 0.6200, while a soft print might provide temporary relief. The RBA's relatively hawkish stance offers limited support amid prevailing risk-off conditions.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD volatility expected as incomplete CPI data meets Fed decision

USD pairs face heightened uncertainty as today's US CPI report will be incomplete due to government shutdown, potentially showing only November price levels rather than December data. The limited dataset reduces reliability for traders analyzing monthly inflation trends, with markets expecting moderation despite tariff pressures on core goods being offset by seasonal discounts. DXY index trades near 107.50 ahead of the release, with EUR/USD holding above 1.0200 support. The compromised data quality may limit sustained dollar moves, though initial volatility is likely across major pairs. Technical levels show USD/JPY resistance at 157.00 and GBP/USD support at 1.2650. The incomplete nature of the report complicates Fed policy assessments, potentially reducing the data's typical market impact. Traders should prepare for whipsaw movements in USD pairs but expect any directional moves to be questioned given the data limitations.
EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD DXY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD weakens on Trump's $1.8B military stimulus announcement

The US dollar index declined 0.2% following President Trump's announcement of a $1,776 payment to over one million active-duty service members before Christmas. This unexpected fiscal stimulus, totaling approximately $1.8 billion, adds to inflationary pressures already concerning Fed policymakers. The move comes amid heightened market sensitivity to government spending, with traders viewing additional stimulus as potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD gained 25 pips to 1.0475, while USD/JPY retreated to 152.80. The stimulus announcement reinforces market expectations of persistent inflation, supporting the Fed's cautious stance on monetary easing. Technical indicators show USD index testing support at 106.50, with further weakness possible if fiscal expansion concerns intensify. Traders are monitoring additional stimulus measures that could further weaken dollar sentiment heading into year-end.
EURUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
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