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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Wednesday, June 11, 2025

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News Statistics for Wednesday, June 11, 2025

18
Total Articles
5
Bullish
8
Bearish
5
Neutral

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Archive date: Wednesday, June 11, 2025

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Forexlive

One for the oil traders - Fitch has cut its oil price estimate to $65 a barrel from $70

Fitch Ratings has lowered its 2025 outlook for the global oil and gas sector to deteriorating, pointing to rising OPEC+ production, expanding non-OPEC+ supply, and the drag from U.S. The agency now expects oil demand to rise by just 800,000 barrels per day—down from a previous forecast of over 1 million—and has cut its oil price estimate to $65 a barrel from $70.Although some tariff relief has emerged, uncertainty continues to suppress consumption.
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD/CAD: Bessent hints at flexible tariff deadlines for trade partners

USD/CAD remains under pressure near 1.4300 as Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent signals flexibility on Trump's proposed tariff deadlines for countries negotiating in good faith. The comments effectively end the '90 deals in 90 days' timeline, reducing immediate trade war risks for Canada. Bessent confirmed plans to accompany Trump next week for meetings with Canadian officials, including Mark Carney, potentially easing bilateral tensions. The Canadian dollar has strengthened 0.2% against the USD following the announcement, with traders reassessing the likelihood of immediate tariff implementation. Technical indicators show USD/CAD testing support at 1.4280, with resistance at 1.4350. A break below current levels could accelerate CAD gains toward 1.4200, while any renewed tariff threats would likely push the pair back above 1.4400.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

EIA Oil Inventory Data Due: Market Eyes Crude Draw of 1.96M Barrels

Energy markets await the official EIA petroleum inventory report at the bottom of the hour, with expectations pointing to a crude oil draw of 1.96 million barrels. Consensus forecasts also anticipate builds in refined products, with distillates expected to increase by 0.824 million barrels and gasoline stocks rising by 0.853 million barrels. The API data released late yesterday showed contrasting figures that have heightened market attention on today's official numbers. Oil prices have been climbing recently, with WTI crude reaching 7-week highs amid supply concerns and improving demand outlook. The inventory data could provide significant volatility for commodity-linked currencies, particularly CAD and NOK. A larger-than-expected crude draw would likely support oil prices and strengthen these petrocurrencies, while a surprise build could trigger profit-taking. Traders should monitor USDCAD for potential moves following the release.
USDCAD USDNOK
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
forexcrunch.com

USD/JPY faces headwinds as BoJ rate hike timeline shifts to 2026

USD/JPY is trading near 157.20, down 0.15% as economists increasingly expect the Bank of Japan to delay further rate hikes until 2026. Market consensus has shifted dramatically, with over 60% of surveyed economists now forecasting no BoJ action this year, compared to previous expectations of a July or October hike. The postponement reflects concerns about Japan's fragile economic recovery and persistent deflationary pressures despite recent wage growth. USD/JPY has found support at 157.00, with resistance emerging at 157.80. The delayed tightening timeline maintains the wide interest rate differential between the Fed and BoJ, potentially supporting USD/JPY in the medium term. However, any unexpected BoJ hawkishness or signs of accelerating Japanese inflation could trigger sharp yen appreciation, with 155.50 as the next major support level.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

Dollar steady ahead of crucial US CPI release; EUR/USD consolidates

The US dollar index holds steady at 105.20 as forex markets await today's pivotal US CPI inflation data, with EUR/USD consolidating around 1.0730. Market expectations point to core CPI remaining at 3.3% year-over-year, though any deviation could significantly impact Fed rate cut expectations for 2025. European session trading saw minimal volatility, with major pairs confined to tight ranges. EUR/USD traded between 1.0720-1.0740, while GBP/USD hovered near 1.2650. The upcoming CPI release at 13:30 GMT could break the current consolidation phase, with traders positioned for potential volatility spikes. A higher-than-expected reading would likely strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD toward 1.0700 support, while softer inflation could propel the pair above 1.0760 resistance, targeting the 1.0800 psychological level.
EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
financefeeds.com

USD/CAD hits 2025 low at 1.4275 on technical breakdown

USD/CAD has declined to 1.4275, marking its lowest level of 2025 as the pair breaks below key support within a well-defined descending channel. The technical structure that began forming on June 4 remains intact, with bearish momentum accelerating after failing to hold above the 1.4300 psychological level. The Canadian dollar's strength reflects improving oil prices (WTI up 1.2% to $78.50) and reduced concerns about US tariffs following Bessent's diplomatic comments. Technical indicators show oversold conditions on the 4-hour RSI at 28, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Immediate support lies at 1.4250 (channel bottom), while resistance has formed at 1.4320 (previous support turned resistance). A break below 1.4250 could extend losses toward 1.4200, though oversold conditions may trigger consolidation first.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD weakens as mortgage applications surge 12.5% on rate stability

The US dollar faced selling pressure following a substantial 12.5% jump in MBA mortgage applications for the week ending June 6, reversing the previous week's 3.9% decline. The purchase index surged to 170.9 from 155.0, marking the highest level since early April, while refinancing activity soared with the index reaching 707.4 from 611.8. Despite the 30-year mortgage rate holding steady at 6.93%, the dramatic rebound in housing market activity suggests improving consumer confidence and potential economic resilience. This data contradicts recent concerns about housing market weakness and may influence the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions. The dollar index retreated 0.2% as traders reassessed the likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening. Technical indicators show USD pairs approaching key support levels, with further downside possible if upcoming inflation data confirms economic stability.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF AUDUSD USDCAD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

GBP/USD Tests Critical 1.3430 Support Ahead of Key US CPI Release

GBP/USD is hovering precariously near the 1.3430 support level as traders position ahead of the crucial US CPI inflation data. The pair has declined 0.5% this week amid broad dollar strength and uncertainty surrounding UK economic prospects. The US Dollar Index has gained momentum, supported by rising US 10-year Treasury yields which have climbed 8 basis points to 4.32%. Market participants are particularly focused on today's inflation reading, with expectations for core CPI to remain sticky at 3.3% year-over-year. A break below 1.3430 could accelerate sterling's decline toward the 1.3380 zone, while an upside surprise in inflation could push the pair through 1.3500 resistance. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum is building, with the RSI approaching oversold territory. The Bank of England's relatively dovish stance compared to the Fed's hawkish pivot has weighed on sterling sentiment recently.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
benzinga.com

Asian Markets Rally Lifts Risk Currencies; Oil Hits 7-Week High

Risk-sensitive currencies gained ground during Asian and European trading sessions as equity markets advanced broadly, with major indices posting gains between 0.8% and 1.5%. The positive sentiment has supported AUD/USD and NZD/USD, which climbed 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Oil prices reached 7-week highs, with Brent crude touching $84.50 per barrel on supply concerns and improving Chinese demand indicators. The commodity rally has particularly benefited CAD, with USD/CAD retreating from recent highs near 1.3650. Asian currencies also strengthened, with USD/JPY consolidating near 157.50 despite the yen's diminishing safe-haven appeal. The risk-on environment has pressured traditional safe havens like CHF and USD, while emerging market currencies showed resilience. Traders are monitoring whether this positive momentum can sustain through the US session, particularly with key economic data releases scheduled later today.
AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCAD USDJPY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
financefeeds.com

Crypto integration reshapes forex/CFD platforms amid regulatory shifts

Traditional forex and CFD brokers are increasingly integrating cryptocurrency trading into their platforms, responding to growing client demand and evolving market dynamics. This convergence represents a significant shift in the industry landscape, as established brokers seek to capture market share from crypto-native exchanges while leveraging their existing regulatory frameworks and client bases. The integration trend has accelerated as regulatory clarity improves in major jurisdictions, though compliance challenges remain significant. Brokers report that crypto CFDs now account for 15-25% of trading volumes on some platforms, with Bitcoin and Ethereum pairs against major fiat currencies being the most popular. This development impacts traditional forex pairs as correlation patterns emerge between crypto volatility and safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. Traders should monitor regulatory developments closely, as policy changes could significantly affect market access and trading conditions.
BTCUSD ETHUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY Extends Rally Above 157.50 as Yen Safe-Haven Status Fades

USD/JPY has continued its upward trajectory, climbing 0.6% to trade above 157.50 as the Japanese yen loses its traditional safe-haven appeal amid improving global risk sentiment. The pair has gained over 250 pips this week, supported by widening US-Japan yield differentials with the 10-year spread expanding to 365 basis points. Market participants are increasingly dismissive of Bank of Japan intervention risks, despite verbal warnings from Japanese officials about excessive currency moves. Technical analysis shows the pair breaking above the 157.00 psychological resistance, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential toward 158.50. The yen's weakness extends across the board, with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also posting significant gains. Traders should monitor any shift in risk sentiment or unexpected BoJ actions that could trigger sharp reversals. The next major resistance lies at 158.00, coinciding with the May 2024 high.
USDJPY EURJPY GBPJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD faces pressure as ECB wage data shows sharp decline to 4.6%

EUR/USD is experiencing downward pressure following the release of ECB's wage tracker data, which revealed negotiated wages fell to 4.6% in Q1 2025 from 5.4% in Q4 2024. The annual reading dropped significantly to below 4.7% from the previous year's levels, marking a substantial deceleration in wage growth across the eurozone. This cooling wage inflation directly supports the ECB's dovish monetary policy stance and reinforces their narrative of moderating inflationary pressures. The data strengthens market expectations for continued ECB rate cuts, potentially widening the policy divergence with other major central banks. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD could test support at 1.0750 if the downward momentum persists, with resistance forming around 1.0850. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for further policy guidance, as sustained wage moderation could accelerate the euro's weakness against the dollar.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/JPY pressured as stronger yen revives Japan deflation concerns

USD/JPY faces downward pressure as the yen's recent strength raises concerns about Japan's deflation risks, potentially limiting Bank of Japan's policy normalization plans. The pair has declined 1.2% over the past week, testing support near 155.50 as traders reassess BoJ's capacity to tighten policy amid renewed deflationary pressures. Japan's 10-year yield differential with US Treasuries has narrowed to 340 basis points, the tightest spread in three months, reducing the carry trade appeal. The stronger yen poses challenges for Japanese exporters and could undermine the BoJ's efforts to achieve sustainable 2% inflation. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking below the 50-day moving average at 156.20, with next support at 154.80. Market positioning suggests further yen strength if upcoming Japanese CPI data confirms deflationary pressures, though any dovish BoJ signals could quickly reverse gains.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Trump tariff speculation impacts USD ahead of key US inflation data

Currency markets are positioning cautiously ahead of US CPI data, with traders weighing potential inflationary impacts from proposed Trump administration tariffs. The dollar index consolidated near 105.80 as markets anticipate inflation surprises that could reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations. Speculation about renewed trade tensions has increased volatility in commodity-linked currencies, with oil and natural gas futures showing significant moves that could feed into inflation metrics. Market consensus expects core CPI to remain elevated at 3.4% year-over-year, but tariff implementation could push readings higher in coming months. GBP/USD traded defensively around 1.2750 as traders balanced UK economic concerns against US inflation risks. The potential for upside inflation surprises has shifted rate cut expectations, with markets now pricing only two Fed cuts for 2025. Technical levels show dollar pairs at critical junctures ahead of the data release.
GBPUSD EURUSD USDJPY USDCAD AUDUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD retreats from highs as UK employment data disappoints

GBP/USD pulled back 0.4% to 1.2720 after reaching weekly highs near 1.2780, as disappointing UK employment figures dampened sterling sentiment. UK jobless claims increased by 23,000 in May, significantly above the expected 8,000, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%. Wage growth also showed signs of cooling, with average earnings excluding bonuses rising 5.9% year-over-year, down from 6.1% previously. The weaker labor market data reduces pressure on the Bank of England to maintain restrictive monetary policy, with markets now pricing a 65% chance of a rate cut by September. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD breaking below the ascending trendline from May lows, with immediate support at 1.2700 and resistance at 1.2750. The dollar index strengthened marginally as traders rotated back into USD ahead of upcoming US inflation data.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD stable as US-China talks yield limited trade framework

The dollar index remained largely unchanged at 105.20 during early European hours, showing minimal movement following two days of US-China trade discussions. Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang characterized the talks as rational and candid, while US officials indicated a preliminary framework agreement was reached, pending approval for implementation. The lack of concrete details or breakthrough announcements has left forex markets in a holding pattern, with USD pairs trading within tight ranges. EUR/USD hovers near 1.0750, while USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50. The measured response reflects trader caution, as previous trade negotiations have often yielded limited lasting impact. Near-term dollar direction will likely depend on upcoming US economic data releases and any follow-through on the trade framework. Technical indicators suggest continued range-bound trading for major USD pairs absent significant catalysts.
EURUSD USDJPY DXY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

AUD/USD faces pressure as China's steel output set to drop 4% in 2025

AUD/USD is experiencing downward pressure as China announces expectations for a 4% decline in steel production for 2025, extending the contraction trend that began in 2021. The reduction reflects Beijing's strategic shift away from infrastructure-heavy development and commitment to carbon emission reduction policies. As China represents Australia's largest trading partner and steel production is a key driver of iron ore demand, this development weighs heavily on the Australian dollar. Chinese steel output has been under government-imposed growth caps since 2021 as part of environmental initiatives. The commodity-linked AUD typically correlates strongly with Chinese industrial activity and raw material demand. Technical indicators suggest AUD/USD may test support levels near 0.6450 if bearish momentum continues. Traders should monitor additional Chinese economic data and any policy adjustments from the Reserve Bank of Australia that might offset commodity-related weakness.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
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