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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Friday, July 4, 2025

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News Statistics for Friday, July 4, 2025

16
Total Articles
6
Bullish
3
Bearish
7
Neutral

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Archive date: Friday, July 4, 2025

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Forexlive

US stock market sentiment is nearing frothy levels. What to watch for

US stock market sentiment might feel frothy because it's been a one-way TACO trade since Trump backed down on Liberation Day tariffs but most sentiment surveys weren't overly frothy.That could be changing. The AAII survey -- which is a solid one -- rose in the latest week to 45% bullish from 35.1%. That's a big jump and reflects a market that's hitting all-time highs almost daily.
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD faces pressure ahead of CPI data and Trump tariff announcements

The US dollar remains under mild pressure as markets await next week's critical events, particularly the US CPI release and Trump's anticipated tariff announcements. With Trump setting an August 1st deadline for new tariff implementations, traders are positioning cautiously ahead of potential market volatility. The upcoming CPI data carries heightened importance as it could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions amid ongoing trade tensions. Markets are treating this as another 'TACO game' scenario, where tariff announcements create temporary market disruptions before fundamental data reasserts control. Technical levels show the Dollar Index hovering near support, with resistance emerging around recent highs. The confluence of inflation data and trade policy uncertainty suggests increased volatility for USD pairs next week, with traders advised to monitor both developments closely for directional cues.
DXY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD weakens slightly as equities decline ahead of US Independence Day

The US dollar traded modestly lower during European morning hours on July 4th, with major pairs showing limited movement ahead of the US holiday closure. EUR/USD edged higher while equity markets retreated, suggesting a mild risk-off sentiment despite the dollar's weakness. Trading volumes remained thin as US markets prepared for Independence Day celebrations, limiting significant price action across major currency pairs. The subdued activity reflects typical pre-holiday positioning, with traders reluctant to establish new positions before the long weekend. Market participants are already looking ahead to next week's economic calendar, which includes important US inflation data and potential trade policy announcements. Technical indicators suggest the dollar's near-term weakness could extend if upcoming data disappoints, though holiday-thinned liquidity may exaggerate any moves. Traders should expect potentially choppy conditions when markets reopen next week.
EURUSD DXY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
financefeeds.com

USD weakens on tariff concerns and soft NFP data amid rising debt fears

The US dollar faces mounting pressure from multiple fronts, including escalating tariff uncertainties, disappointing labor market details from the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report, and growing concerns over rising US debt levels. These factors have combined to fuel economic uncertainty, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets and away from the greenback. The weak employment data suggests potential cracks in the US labor market's resilience, while trade tensions threaten to disrupt global supply chains and increase inflationary pressures. Rising US debt levels add another layer of concern for dollar bulls, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's policy flexibility. Technical analysis shows the Dollar Index breaking below key support levels, with momentum indicators suggesting further weakness ahead. Safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF have benefited from the risk-off sentiment, while gold prices have surged as traders seek alternatives to the dollar.
DXY USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD extends decline despite UK jobs strength on BoE policy doubts

GBP/USD has deepened its correction, falling approximately 0.4% despite robust UK employment data, as uncertainty surrounding Bank of England policy decisions weighs on sterling. The UK labor market showed unexpected strength with unemployment remaining low and wage growth exceeding forecasts, typically supportive factors for the pound. However, traders are focusing on mixed signals from BoE officials regarding the pace of future rate adjustments, creating policy uncertainty that's undermining GBP strength. The pair has broken below the 1.2650 support level, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential toward 1.2600. Market positioning suggests traders are reducing long GBP exposure ahead of upcoming BoE communications. The divergence between strong economic data and cautious central bank stance highlights the complex dynamics facing sterling traders, with near-term direction likely dependent on clearer BoE guidance.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/CAD Holds Steady Despite Strong US Employment Data

USD/CAD remained unchanged near 1.3650 despite robust US employment figures that typically strengthen the dollar. The US Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations, yet the pair showed minimal reaction, suggesting underlying Canadian dollar strength or market positioning ahead of key events. The muted response indicates traders may be factoring in potential Federal Reserve policy shifts or awaiting Canadian economic data. Technical indicators show USD/CAD consolidating within a tight range between 1.3620 support and 1.3680 resistance. The lack of momentum despite positive US data suggests the pair may be reaching equilibrium levels. Traders should monitor upcoming Canadian employment data and oil price movements, which significantly influence CAD strength. The unusual market reaction to strong US jobs data could signal a potential shift in USD/CAD dynamics, warranting careful position management around current levels.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Risk Currencies Gain but Holiday Trading May Distort Monday Open

Risk-sensitive currency pairs extended gains during thin holiday trading, with EUR/USD rising 0.2% to 1.0840 and GBP/USD advancing to 1.2750. USD/JPY climbed 0.3% to 145.20 as yen weakened amid improving risk appetite. USD/CHF declined to 0.8920, reflecting Swiss franc strength as a partial safe-haven bid persists. The low volume environment typical of holiday periods has amplified price movements, potentially creating false signals ahead of Monday's full market open. Traders are positioning cautiously as liquidity remains below normal levels, increasing the risk of gap openings and volatile price swings when regular trading resumes. Technical levels established during low-volume sessions often prove unreliable, suggesting current gains may face immediate tests. Market participants should prepare for potential reversals or accelerated moves as institutional flows return, particularly in USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Gold Tumbles as Strong NFP Data Reduces Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Gold prices plummeted 1.8% to $2,315 per ounce following stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls data, which diminished hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The robust employment report showed job gains exceeding forecasts, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance and supporting higher-for-longer interest rates. EUR/USD declined 0.4% to 1.0780 as dollar strength accelerated across the board. The US Dollar Index surged 0.6% to 104.50, reaching a two-week high. Gold's sharp decline broke below key support at $2,330, opening the path toward $2,300 psychological support. The correlation between gold and currency markets intensified as traders repriced rate expectations. Near-term gold weakness likely pressures commodity currencies while supporting USD pairs. Traders should monitor the $2,300 level closely, as a break below could trigger further selling toward $2,280.
EURUSD XAUUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD Strength Limited Despite Jobs Data as Tariff Concerns Weigh

The US dollar's rally following strong employment data proved short-lived as ongoing tariff concerns capped gains. EUR/USD recovered from 1.0760 to 1.0810 after initial dollar strength faded. USD/JPY retreated from 145.80 highs to 145.20 as risk appetite waned on trade uncertainty. USD/CHF failed to sustain breaks above 0.8950, while EUR/CHF held steady near 0.9680. Market participants remain cautious about potential trade policy shifts that could disrupt global commerce and currency flows. The muted dollar response to positive economic data suggests traders are pricing in heightened geopolitical risks. Technical indicators show major pairs consolidating within recent ranges as markets await clarity on trade policies. The disconnect between strong fundamentals and limited USD appreciation indicates potential volatility ahead, particularly for trade-sensitive pairs like USD/JPY and commodity currencies.
EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF EURCHF
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
financefeeds.com

Essential Tax Guide for Australian Forex Traders in 2025

Australian forex traders face important tax obligations in 2025 as the ATO increases scrutiny on trading activities. Forex profits are generally taxed as either capital gains or ordinary income, depending on trading frequency and intent. Professional traders conducting business-like operations face income tax rates up to 45%, while investors may qualify for 50% capital gains discount on positions held over 12 months. Key considerations include proper record-keeping of all trades, understanding the distinction between investing and trading as a business, and potential GST implications for high-volume traders. AUD pairs remain popular among local traders, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY seeing increased volumes. Traders should maintain detailed logs including entry/exit prices, dates, and profit/loss calculations for each position. Consultation with tax professionals specializing in forex is strongly recommended to ensure compliance and optimize tax positions.
AUDUSD AUDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD, USD/CAD quiet ahead of limited economic calendar

Major forex pairs remain range-bound during early European trading, with EUR/USD holding steady near 1.0850 and USD/CAD consolidating around 1.3650. Today's economic calendar features only low-impact releases including Eurozone construction PMI, Italian retail sales, and Eurozone PPI - none expected to significantly influence ECB policy decisions or drive meaningful price action. The North American session brings Canadian services PMI data, though market participants anticipate minimal volatility from this release. With no high-tier economic indicators scheduled, traders are likely to focus on technical levels and position adjustments ahead of next week's key risk events. EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.0875, with support at 1.0825, while USD/CAD trades within a tight 1.3620-1.3680 range. The absence of market-moving catalysts suggests continued consolidation across major pairs, with traders awaiting more substantial fundamental drivers.
EURUSD USDCAD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

Nifty 50 Technical Analysis: Key Levels for Indian Market Exposure

The Nifty 50 index, representing India's top 50 companies on the National Stock Exchange, presents critical technical levels for traders seeking emerging market exposure through INR pairs. While not directly a forex instrument, Nifty movements significantly impact USD/INR and other rupee crosses as foreign institutional flows follow equity market performance. Strong Nifty performance typically supports INR appreciation against major currencies, particularly during risk-on sentiment. Current technical analysis suggests key support and resistance zones that could trigger capital flows affecting INR liquidity. Traders monitoring USD/INR should note correlation patterns between Nifty breakouts and rupee strength, especially given India's growing forex reserves and economic fundamentals. The video analysis provides detailed chart patterns and price targets relevant for currency traders positioning in Asian emerging market currencies.
USDINR
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD Strengthens as Trump Tariff Letters Signal Trade Policy Shift

The US dollar gained across major pairs during Asian trading as reports emerged that President Trump will begin issuing tariff notification letters, signaling a potential shift in trade policy. USD/JPY rose 0.4% to test 157.20 resistance, while EUR/USD retreated 0.25% to 1.0420 support. The prospect of renewed tariffs particularly pressured Asian currencies, with USD/CNH jumping 0.6% as markets priced in potential China-US trade tensions. AUD/USD fell 0.5% to 0.6580, reflecting risk-off sentiment and concerns about commodity demand. The tariff announcements could reshape global trade flows and central bank policy responses, with the Federal Reserve potentially facing renewed inflation pressures. Technical indicators show USD index approaching overbought territory at 106.50, suggesting near-term consolidation possible. Traders should monitor upcoming trade policy details for sustained dollar direction.
USDJPY EURUSD USDCNH AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/CNY faces pressure as China unveils childbirth subsidy program

USD/CNY is expected to face downward pressure as China announces a comprehensive childbirth subsidy program starting January 1, 2025. The initiative includes annual payments of 3,600 yuan per child under three years old, marking a significant fiscal stimulus effort to combat the nation's demographic crisis. This policy expansion builds on existing local incentives, with some regions like Hohhot offering up to 100,000 yuan for a third child. The program represents a substantial government spending commitment that could strengthen domestic consumption and support the yuan. Market participants are closely monitoring how this demographic-focused stimulus might influence China's economic growth trajectory and currency stability. The policy announcement suggests Beijing's increasing willingness to deploy fiscal measures, which could provide underlying support for CNY against major currencies. Traders should watch for potential yuan appreciation if the program successfully boosts consumer spending and economic confidence.
USDCNY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
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NZDCAD
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M15, H1, H4, D1
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M15, H1, H4, D1
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