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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, July 3, 2025

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News Statistics for Thursday, July 3, 2025

14
Total Articles
6
Bullish
4
Bearish
4
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Archive date: Thursday, July 3, 2025

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Forexlive

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Non - farm payrolls beat the consensus

US June non-farm payrolls +147K vs +110K expectedUS June ISM services index 50.8 vs 50.5 expectedUS initial jobs claims 233K versus 240K estimateUS factory orders for May 8.2% versus 8.2% estimateUS May trade balance -71.5B vs -71.0B expectedCanada May trade balance -5.90B vs -5.90B expectedBessent: Expect to see about 100 countries get minimum 10% reciprocal taxFed's Bostic: Significant risk that upward pressure on prices will be around for some timeAtlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow 2.6% vs 2.5%...
USD EUR GBP JPY
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

Oil Rig Count Drops by 7, WTI Crude Falls to $66.94

WTI crude oil declined 0.77% ($0.52) to $66.94 as Baker Hughes reported a 7-unit decrease in US oil rig count to 425, signaling potential future supply constraints. The total rig count fell by 8 to 539, with natural gas rigs down 1 to 108. Despite today's decline, crude oil has gained 2.95% for the trading week, though remains down 6.78% year-to-date. The session low touched $67.54, reflecting ongoing concerns about global demand amid mixed economic signals. Lower rig counts typically support prices long-term by reducing future supply, but current market dynamics suggest immediate demand concerns are outweighing supply factors. For forex traders, the weaker oil prices could pressure commodity currencies like CAD and NOK, while potentially supporting oil-importing nations' currencies.
USDCAD USDNOK
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/JPY Approaches Session Highs as Dollar Strengthens Pre-Holiday

USD/JPY is testing the best levels of the day as the US dollar firms across the board heading into the July 4th holiday. The pair's upward momentum reflects broad dollar strength supported by robust US economic data and rising Treasury yields. Market positioning suggests traders are squaring positions ahead of the US holiday closure, with reduced liquidity potentially amplifying price movements. The dollar index has gained ground against major counterparts, with particular strength visible against the Japanese yen as interest rate differentials continue to favor the greenback. Technical indicators show USD/JPY approaching key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential. Traders should note that holiday-thinned liquidity could lead to increased volatility and wider spreads, particularly during Asian trading hours when US markets are closed.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
finance.yahoo.com

Dollar Index Rises 0.36% on Strong US Payroll Data

The dollar index surged 0.36% following a stronger-than-expected US payroll report that exceeded market forecasts. The robust employment data has reinforced expectations for sustained Federal Reserve hawkishness, driving the 10-year Treasury yield 5 basis points higher and widening interest rate differentials in favor of the dollar. The employment strength suggests resilient economic conditions despite tightening monetary policy, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Major forex pairs saw significant dollar buying, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD declining as traders repositioned for a potentially more aggressive Fed stance. The improved rate differentials are providing fundamental support for continued dollar strength, particularly against lower-yielding currencies. Near-term dollar momentum appears firmly bullish, with technical indicators supporting further gains as long as US economic data remains supportive.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD Gains as ISM Services Index Beats at 50.8 vs 50.5 Expected

The US dollar strengthened after June ISM Services Index came in at 50.8, exceeding the 50.5 forecast and rebounding from May's contractionary 49.9 reading. New orders jumped to 51.3 from 46.7, signaling improved demand, while business activity rose to 54.2. However, employment weakened to 47.2 from 50.7, marking the lowest level since March. Prices paid eased slightly to 67.5 from 68.7, suggesting moderating inflationary pressures in the services sector. The return to expansionary territory (above 50) in the dominant services sector reinforces the narrative of US economic resilience, supporting dollar bulls. The mixed employment component may temper some enthusiasm, but overall the data supports maintaining current Fed policy expectations. Dollar strength is likely to persist near-term against major pairs.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
rttnews.com

Markets Absorb Strong US Jobs Data Impact on Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Financial markets are digesting stronger-than-expected US employment data that has significantly reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. The robust jobs report defied economist predictions, reinforcing the view that the US labor market remains resilient despite elevated interest rates. This development has sobered market sentiment, with traders now pricing in a more hawkish Fed trajectory. The dollar has benefited from the recalibration of rate expectations, gaining against most major currencies as yield differentials widen in its favor. Risk assets showed mixed reactions as the prospect of higher-for-longer rates weighs against positive economic growth signals. For forex traders, the shifting rate cut timeline suggests continued dollar support, particularly against currencies where central banks are closer to easing cycles.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
benzinga.com

USD hits 3-year lows as Asian and European markets show mixed signals

The US Dollar Index has fallen to three-year lows near 101.50, declining 0.4% in Asian trading as mixed market sentiment prevails across global exchanges. Asian markets showed divergence with Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.6% while China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.8%. European indices opened cautiously, with DAX flat and FTSE 100 down 0.2%. The dollar's weakness stems from growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September, with markets pricing in a 75% probability of easing. Technical indicators suggest the DXY could test psychological support at 101.00, while resistance emerges at 102.20. Currency pairs benefiting from dollar weakness include EUR/USD trading near 1.0950 and GBP/USD approaching 1.2750. Traders await Friday's US employment data which could either accelerate the dollar's decline or provide temporary relief if job growth exceeds expectations.
EURUSD GBPUSD DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD and AUD/USD eye gains as US equity rally broadens beyond tech

GBP/USD has advanced 0.25% to 1.2740 while AUD/USD climbed 0.35% to 0.6680 as risk sentiment improves with US equities extending their record run. The S&P 500 futures indicate a 0.3% opening gain, with market breadth improving as gains spread beyond technology stocks to financials and industrials. Sterling strength reflects ongoing UK economic resilience and Bank of England hawkish positioning, while the Australian dollar benefits from improved risk appetite and steady commodity prices. Gold remains supported near $2,350/oz, providing additional tailwind for AUD. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD targeting 1.2800 resistance with support at 1.2700, while AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6720 with support at 0.6650. The broader equity rally suggests continued dollar weakness unless upcoming US data significantly exceeds expectations, potentially pushing both pairs toward their respective June highs.
GBPUSD AUDUSD XAUUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD and USD/JPY await US jobs data as dollar revival remains elusive

EUR/USD holds steady at 1.0940 while USD/JPY trades near 161.20 as markets position ahead of crucial US employment data. The dollar's attempted recovery has stalled despite hawkish Fed rhetoric, with traders skeptical about sustained USD strength without concrete economic improvements. EUR/GBP remains range-bound at 0.8580, reflecting balanced monetary policy expectations between the ECB and BoE. Japanese officials continue verbal intervention warnings as USD/JPY approaches intervention levels near 162.00. Market positioning data shows speculative EUR longs at multi-month highs while JPY shorts remain elevated despite intervention risks. Key US jobs data including ADP employment and weekly jobless claims could trigger significant volatility. Technical levels show EUR/USD resistance at 1.0980 and support at 1.0900, while USD/JPY faces strong resistance at 162.00 with support at 160.50.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY EURGBP
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/CHF Eyes Swiss CPI Data Amid Persistent Deflation Concerns

USD/CHF trades steady near 0.9050 ahead of Switzerland's key inflation report, with markets anticipating continued deflationary pressures. Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected to remain at -0.1%, maintaining negative territory for another month, while the M/M figure is projected at 0.0% versus 0.1% previously. Despite headline deflation, Core CPI holds at 0.5% Y/Y, providing some stability. The persistent deflation could pressure the Swiss National Bank to maintain its accommodative stance, potentially weakening the CHF. Technical indicators show USD/CHF consolidating within a 0.9020-0.9080 range, with a break above potentially targeting 0.9120 resistance. Traders should monitor the CPI release closely, as any surprise deviation could trigger volatility in CHF crosses. A worse-than-expected deflation reading might push USD/CHF higher, while any improvement in inflation metrics could strengthen the franc against major currencies.
USDCHF EURCHF GBPCHF
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD Faces Pressure Ahead of NFP Release on Thursday Holiday Trading

USD index holds steady at 106.20 ahead of Thursday's crucial Non-Farm Payrolls report, with markets anticipating 190K job additions for June. The unusual Thursday release comes as US markets will be closed Friday for Independence Day, creating potential for heightened volatility with reduced liquidity. Recent ADP employment data showed 150K private sector jobs added, below the 165K forecast, suggesting possible NFP disappointment. Major pairs show mixed sentiment with EUR/USD trading at 1.0825, GBP/USD at 1.2640, and USD/JPY holding 161.50. Traders are closely monitoring the unemployment rate forecast at 4.0% and average hourly earnings expected at 3.9% YoY. A weaker-than-expected report could pressure the dollar further and fuel speculation of earlier Fed rate cuts, while strong data might support USD strength. Key resistance for DXY sits at 106.50, with support at 105.80.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD/KRW faces pressure as US-South Korea tariff talks hit roadblocks

USD/KRW remains elevated near 1,470 levels as diplomatic tensions arise from difficult US-South Korea tariff negotiations ahead of the July 8 deadline. South Korean officials, led by negotiator Lee, have expressed concerns about the challenging nature of discussions, citing a lack of clarity from both sides regarding specific tariff objectives. The uncertainty surrounding potential trade barriers is weighing on the Korean won, as investors price in the risk of increased import costs and potential disruptions to South Korea's export-driven economy. Market participants are closely monitoring developments, as any breakdown in negotiations could trigger further won weakness. Technical indicators suggest USD/KRW could test resistance at 1,475 if talks deteriorate, while successful resolution might provide support near 1,465. The situation adds to existing pressure on Asian currencies amid broader concerns about US trade policy shifts.
USDKRW
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
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