Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to interest rates, as expectedFOMC dot plot and economic projections for June 2025Powell opening statement: Current policy stance leaves us well positionedPowell Q&A: We've had goods inflation moving up a bit, we expect to see more of thatUS May housing starts 1.256m vs 1.357m expectedUS initial jobless claims 245K vs 245K estimateThe comparison of the June 2025 FOMC statement to the May 2025 statementTrump: Iran wants to come to the White House, I may...
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CHF
AUD
Source: Finnhub
Highlights of the Federal Reserve rate decision on June 18
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
Currency markets have shown minimal reaction to escalating Middle East tensions despite reports of potential US involvement in Israeli strikes on Iran. Oil prices retreated following dovish remarks from Trump, with WTI crude falling 1.2% to $81.50. The dollar index remained stable near 104.50, showing resilience as traders await concrete developments rather than speculation. Safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF saw only modest inflows, with USD/JPY holding above 157.00 and USD/CHF near 0.8920. Market participants appear to have priced in geopolitical risks, focusing instead on upcoming central bank decisions. The muted response suggests traders require actual military action rather than headlines to trigger significant position adjustments. Near-term, USD pairs may consolidate within current ranges unless escalation materializes.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The dollar index today is down by -0.21%. The dollar dipped to its lows today on the weaker-than-expected reports on US May housing starts...
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
The dollar is experiencing mild pressure as traders await the official EIA oil inventory data at the bottom of the hour, with estimates showing a crude oil drawdown of 1.794M barrels, alongside gasoline and distillates builds of 0.627M and 0.440M barrels respectively. Yesterday's private API data revealed a surprisingly large inventory drawdown, which initially supported oil prices and weighed on the dollar through reduced inflation concerns. The energy sector's influence on USD pairs has been notable, with commodity-linked currencies like CAD showing relative strength. Market participants are closely monitoring how the official data compares to expectations, as significant deviations could impact Federal Reserve inflation assessments and subsequent dollar positioning. Technical levels show USDCAD testing support near 1.3650, while oil-sensitive pairs remain in consolidation ahead of the release.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Market Analysis by covering: British Pound US Dollar, US Dollar Index Futures, Crude Oil WTI Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
GBPUSD
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD plunged overnight to 1.2417, marking its lowest level since early June and extending losses by 0.8% (95 pips). The sharp decline was primarily driven by broad-based dollar strength ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, combined with concerns over UK economic momentum. Sterling weakness accelerated after breaking below the key 1.2450 support level, triggering stop-loss orders. The pair has now fallen over 250 pips from its June high of 1.2670, reflecting shifting market dynamics favoring the greenback. Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, but momentum remains bearish with the RSI at 32. Immediate support lies at 1.2400, while resistance has formed at the broken 1.2450 level. Traders await UK inflation data and Fed policy guidance for directional clarity.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Global equity futures advanced and risk currencies strengthened as investors positioned ahead of today's Federal Reserve decision. S&P 500 futures gained 0.6%, supporting risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD. AUD/USD climbed 0.4% to 0.6520, while NZD/USD added 0.3% to 0.6180. The improved sentiment reflects market expectations for a dovish Fed stance despite recent inflation concerns. EUR/USD stabilized near 1.0830, finding support from the positive risk environment. USD/JPY edged higher to 157.20 as safe-haven demand waned. Market participants appear confident the Fed will maintain its patient approach to policy normalization. The return of dip buyers suggests underlying bullish sentiment, though volatility may spike post-Fed announcement.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar traded lightly lower during the European morning session on June 18, with major pairs showing modest gains against the greenback amid cautiously improved risk sentiment. EUR/USD advanced approximately 0.15% to test the 1.0740 resistance level, while GBP/USD remained supported near 1.2680 ahead of key UK inflation data. Market participants maintained a defensive stance with limited conviction in directional moves, as traders positioned cautiously ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Asian equity markets showed mixed performance overnight, contributing to the subdued risk appetite. The dollar index (DXY) retreated from recent highs near 105.50, finding support around 105.20. Currency volatility remained compressed with implied volatilities near recent lows, suggesting markets are awaiting fresh catalysts from central bank communications and economic data releases later in the week.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Safe-haven demand has pushed the US dollar higher across major pairs as Iran's Supreme Leader threatened retaliation against Israel, stoking fears of Middle East escalation. The DXY index climbed 0.4% to 106.50 as traders assessed potential disruptions to oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil passes. WTI crude surged 2.8% to $82.40/barrel on supply concerns. Currency markets are pricing in heightened geopolitical risk, with USD/JPY rising despite typical yen safe-haven flows, currently trading at 155.80. The primary concern centers on potential direct US military involvement and subsequent oil price shocks that could reignite inflation pressures. Technical resistance for DXY sits at 107.00, with support at 106.00. Traders should monitor developments closely as any escalation could trigger sharp risk-off moves benefiting the dollar and yen while pressuring commodity currencies.
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD climbed 0.3% to 1.2720 on Wednesday following UK inflation data that met market expectations, with headline CPI holding steady and food inflation showing an uptick. The pound found support as the inflation figures reduced concerns about aggressive Bank of England rate cuts, maintaining the central bank's cautious stance on monetary policy easing. Sterling's advance comes as traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with markets pricing in potential dovish signals from the FOMC. Technical indicators show GBP/USD breaking above the 1.2700 psychological level with immediate resistance at 1.2750, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. The pair's momentum indicators turned positive, suggesting further upside potential if the Fed adopts a more accommodative tone. Support levels are established at 1.2680 and 1.2650, providing a cushion for any pre-FOMC volatility.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has recovered 0.25% to 1.2650 following the release of UK inflation data showing CPI edged lower to 2.1% year-over-year in May from 2.3% previously. Core CPI also moderated to 3.5% from 3.9%, slightly above the 3.4% forecast. Despite the cooling inflation, sterling found support as the data remains above the Bank of England's 2% target, suggesting the BoE may maintain its hawkish stance. The pound's resilience reflects market expectations that UK rates will stay elevated longer than previously anticipated. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD bounced from key support at 1.2600, with immediate resistance at 1.2680 (50-day MA). A break above could target 1.2720, while failure to hold 1.2600 opens the path to 1.2550. Traders await Thursday's BoE policy decision for further directional clarity.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has halted its recent decline, consolidating around 155.50 after dropping from last week's high of 156.80. Despite the pause, domestic Japanese signals remain bearish with the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy stance. Japan's trade deficit widened to ¥1.22 trillion in May, exceeding forecasts and highlighting ongoing economic challenges. The yen's weakness persists due to the significant interest rate differential between the Fed and BoJ, with US 10-year yields at 4.25% versus Japan's 0.95%. Technical indicators suggest USD/JPY has found temporary support at 155.20, with resistance at 156.00. However, momentum indicators remain negative, with the RSI at 42 signaling further downside potential. A break below 155.00 could accelerate losses toward 154.50, while recovery above 156.00 would neutralize immediate bearish pressure.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Gold prices have rallied 1.2% to $2,340/oz as traders position ahead of today's Federal Reserve decision amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions. The precious metal benefits from dual catalysts: geopolitical safe-haven demand and expectations the Fed may signal a dovish pivot. Markets are pricing a 65% probability of a September rate cut, supporting non-yielding gold. EUR/USD trades at 1.0750, finding support from dollar weakness, while AUD/USD dropped 0.3% to 0.6650 on risk-off sentiment. The DXY index fell 0.2% to 105.80 as investors await Fed Chair Powell's press conference for rate path clarity. Gold's technical picture shows strong momentum with RSI at 68, approaching overbought territory. Immediate resistance lies at $2,350 (April high), with support at $2,320. A hawkish Fed surprise could trigger profit-taking, while dovish signals may propel prices toward $2,375.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical tensions have sparked a 3.1% surge in Brent crude to $86.20/barrel, pressuring import-dependent currencies like sterling. GBP/USD fell 0.4% to 1.2620 as higher oil prices threaten to reignite UK inflation concerns. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5% as risk sentiment deteriorated, supporting safe-haven flows into precious metals. Silver has outperformed, rallying 3.8% to $29.50/oz versus gold's 1.2% gain to $2,340/oz, reflecting industrial demand alongside haven buying. The gold/silver ratio compressed to 79.3 from 81.2, signaling potential economic optimism despite geopolitical risks. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD breaking below its 20-day MA at 1.2640, targeting 1.2580 support. Silver faces resistance at $30.00 psychological level, while maintaining bullish momentum above $29.00. Traders should monitor oil prices as sustained elevation could prompt central banks to maintain restrictive policies longer.
GBPUSD
XAUUSD
XAGUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD is experiencing heightened volatility as multiple fundamental catalysts converge, with the pair trading near 1.2685 amid conflicting pressures from UK inflation data, Bank of England policy expectations, and Federal Reserve positioning. The pound showed initial weakness in early trading as markets digested implications of persistent UK inflation potentially constraining BoE policy flexibility. Dollar strength has been underpinned by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, with the dollar index maintaining levels above 105.00. Technical analysis reveals GBP/USD testing critical support at 1.2680, with a break below potentially accelerating declines toward 1.2630. The confluence of central bank decisions has increased implied volatility in sterling crosses, with options markets pricing in larger moves. Traders are particularly focused on how the BoE will balance inflation concerns against growth risks, while Fed communications will be scrutinized for any shifts in the rate outlook.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD consolidated near 1.0735 ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting, with markets closely watching for signals about a potential July interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The pair has traded in a tight 30-pip range as traders await clarity on the Fed's monetary policy trajectory amid mixed economic signals and persistent inflation concerns. Market pricing currently shows a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in July, though Fed communication could significantly shift these expectations. European Central Bank officials have maintained their gradual easing stance, creating a potential policy divergence that could impact the exchange rate. Technical levels show EUR/USD trapped between resistance at 1.0760 and support at 1.0710, with a breakout likely following the Fed announcement. Volatility measures indicate markets are positioned for a significant move, with options pricing suggesting a potential 80-pip range post-FOMC.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD remains range-bound near 1.2750 following the release of UK inflation data that aligned with market expectations. The UK Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation holding at 2.3% year-over-year, matching forecasts and keeping Bank of England rate cut expectations unchanged. Core CPI also met predictions at 3.9%, suggesting persistent underlying price pressures. The sterling's reaction was muted as traders had already priced in these levels. Focus now shifts to US Jobless Claims data due later today, which could provide fresh directional momentum for the pair. Technical indicators show GBP/USD consolidating between 1.2720 support and 1.2780 resistance. The absence of significant surprises in UK inflation data maintains the status quo for BoE policy expectations, with markets still pricing gradual rate cuts through 2025.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The dollar index touched an intermediate low at 104.20 as geopolitical uncertainties prompted profit-taking in long USD positions. EUR/USD rallied 0.5% to 1.0845, breaking above the 1.0830 resistance level on technical buying. GBP/USD recovered from session lows to 1.2440, though remains vulnerable below 1.2500. USD/JPY retreated from 157.50 highs to 157.00 as safe-haven flows partially returned amid Middle East concerns. The dollar's pullback reflects a combination of overbought conditions and pre-Fed positioning adjustments. Technical analysis shows the DXY facing resistance at 104.80, with support emerging at 104.00. Traders remain cautious given ongoing geopolitical risks, though immediate currency impacts have been limited. Near-term dollar direction likely depends on Fed communication and any escalation in regional tensions.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DXY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD holds steady near 1.2720 ahead of the UK's May inflation report, with markets anticipating a deceleration in price pressures. Economists forecast headline annual CPI to drop to 3.4% from April's 3.5%, while core inflation is expected to decline more sharply to 3.5% from 3.8% previously. The data carries significant weight for Bank of England policy decisions, as persistent inflation above the 2% target maintains pressure for hawkish monetary stance. A softer-than-expected reading could trigger sterling weakness, potentially pushing GBP/USD toward support at 1.2680. Conversely, any upside surprise in inflation figures would likely boost the pound, with immediate resistance seen at 1.2750. The BoE's challenge remains balancing inflation control against economic growth concerns, making today's release crucial for determining the central bank's next policy moves and sterling's near-term trajectory.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY retreated 0.2% to 156.85 as markets digested failed tariff negotiations between Japan and the US at the G7 summit. Japanese PM Ishiba confirmed that disagreements persist over the 25% US tariff on Japanese auto imports, raising concerns about bilateral trade relations. The impasse could weigh on Japan's export-dependent economy, potentially influencing BOJ policy decisions. Ishiba's earlier comments supporting cash handouts to combat high prices suggest continued fiscal stimulus, which may pressure the yen further. Technical indicators show USD/JPY testing support at 156.70, with resistance at 157.20. A breakdown below support could target 156.00, while resolution of trade tensions might propel the pair toward 158.00. Traders should monitor upcoming US-Japan trade discussions and any BOJ policy signals for directional cues.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
