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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, June 12, 2025

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News Statistics for Thursday, June 12, 2025

16
Total Articles
4
Bullish
8
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4
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Archive date: Thursday, June 12, 2025

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Forexlive

Economic calendar in Asia Friday, June 13, 2025 - another light one

Welcome to the Friday data agenda, only a light one. None of this is likely to be too impactful upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' result.
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD strengthens as Treasury 30Y auction shows strong demand at 4.844%

The US dollar gained ground across major pairs following a successful 30-year Treasury bond auction that yielded 4.844%, below the when-issued level of 4.859%. The $22 billion auction attracted robust international demand with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43x, surpassing the six-month average of 2.39x. Indirect bidders, primarily foreign central banks and institutions, took 65.2% of the auction, well above the 63.2% average, signaling strong overseas appetite for US debt. The negative tail of 1.5 basis points indicates aggressive bidding, supporting dollar strength as it reflects confidence in US fiscal stability. This successful auction helps alleviate concerns about Treasury market liquidity and could support the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility. Near-term, the dollar index shows support at 104.50 with resistance at 105.20, as traders await upcoming inflation data for further directional cues.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF AUDUSD USDCAD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

GBP/USD drops below 1.2700 as UK GDP unexpectedly contracts

GBP/USD declined 0.4% to 1.2680 following disappointing UK economic data that showed an unexpected GDP contraction. The UK economy shrank by 0.1% in the latest period, missing forecasts of 0.1% growth and raising concerns about the Bank of England's ability to maintain its hawkish stance. The pound's initial losses were limited by broad dollar weakness, as US inflation data came in below expectations, keeping the greenback under pressure. Technical indicators show GBP/USD struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.2700 psychological level, with immediate support at 1.2650 (50-day moving average) and resistance at 1.2730 (weekly high). The contracting UK economy could prompt the BoE to reconsider its tightening cycle, potentially capping sterling's upside. Traders await tomorrow's US PPI data for further dollar direction, while UK employment figures next week will be crucial for assessing pound strength.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD weakens across the board as CPI miss boosts Fed pause hopes

The US dollar index fell 0.5% to 104.20 after softer-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve policy pause. Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month versus 0.3% expected, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5% previously. EUR/USD jumped 0.6% to 1.0780, while USD/JPY dropped 0.7% to 155.30 as risk sentiment deteriorated. The dollar's broad weakness extended to commodity currencies, with USD/CAD falling 0.4% to 1.3650. Market pricing now shows a 75% probability of no Fed action at the next meeting, up from 60% before the data. Technical analysis reveals the dollar index breaking below key support at 104.50, potentially opening the path to 103.80. Tomorrow's PPI data will be crucial in confirming the disinflationary trend, with any downside surprise likely to accelerate dollar selling pressure across major pairs.
EURUSD USDJPY USDCAD DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

Risk-off sentiment pressures high-beta currencies in European session

European markets showed defensive positioning with equity futures down 0.8% and safe-haven currencies gaining ground. USD/JPY fell 0.5% to 155.50 as the yen benefited from risk aversion, while AUD/USD dropped 0.6% to 0.6420 amid commodity weakness. EUR/USD remained relatively stable near 1.0750 despite the risk-off tone, supported by expectations of continued ECB hawkishness. The Swiss franc also gained, with USD/CHF declining 0.3% to 0.8980. Market participants cited concerns over global growth prospects and upcoming central bank decisions as key drivers of the cautious sentiment. Technical indicators show most risk-sensitive pairs testing key support levels, with AUD/USD approaching the 0.6400 psychological level. Traders are positioning defensively ahead of tomorrow's US PPI data and next week's central bank meetings, suggesting continued volatility in currency markets.
USDJPY AUDUSD EURUSD USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/GBP targets decade-high as ECB-BoE policy divergence widens

EUR/GBP has gained 0.45% over the past two weeks, trading at 0.8420 as monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank and Bank of England becomes increasingly apparent. The ECB appears to be nearing the end of its easing cycle with markets pricing in only 50 basis points of additional cuts through 2025, while the BoE retains substantial room for dovish action amid persistently weak UK economic data. UK GDP growth has stagnated at 0.1% quarterly, while inflation remains stubbornly below target at 1.8%. The pair is approaching the upper boundary of its decade-long trading range near 0.8550, with immediate resistance at 0.8450. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum building, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day MA. A sustained break above 0.8550 could trigger acceleration toward 0.8700, levels not seen since 2016.
EURGBP
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
forexcrunch.com

GBP/USD buyers return despite weak UK GDP as dollar struggles persist

GBP/USD recovered from intraday lows to trade at 1.2710, up 0.2% despite disappointing UK GDP data showing a 0.2% contraction versus 0.1% growth expected. The pound's resilience stems primarily from persistent dollar weakness following yesterday's soft US CPI print. Cable found support at 1.2680 before buyers stepped in, pushing the pair back above the 1.2700 handle. The UK's economic weakness raises questions about the Bank of England's hawkish stance, potentially limiting sterling's upside potential. However, with US inflation trending lower and Fed pause expectations growing, the dollar remains under broad selling pressure. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD facing resistance at 1.2750 (200-day MA) with support established at 1.2680. Tomorrow's US PPI data and next week's UK employment figures will be crucial for determining the pair's near-term direction.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD weakens as Middle East tensions persist, China stays silent

US equity futures have edged lower in early trading, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, weighing on risk sentiment and the US dollar. The dollar index (DXY) has retreated 0.15% to 105.20 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to elevate safe-haven demand, benefiting JPY and CHF. USD/JPY has declined 0.3% to 155.80, while USD/CHF dropped 0.25% to 0.9120. Market participants are particularly concerned about China's unusual silence on economic policy matters this afternoon, adding to uncertainty in Asian markets. The combination of Middle East tensions and China's lack of communication has increased volatility across major forex pairs. Technical indicators show USD/JPY approaching key support at 155.50, with further downside possible if risk-off sentiment intensifies. Traders should monitor weekend developments in the Middle East and any potential policy announcements from China that could impact Monday's opening.
USDJPY USDCHF DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD strengthens as Treasury yields realign with dollar correlation

The US Dollar Index has gained 0.3% to 104.50 as the traditional correlation between Treasury yields and dollar strength reasserts itself following recent divergence. 10-year Treasury yields rose 8 basis points to 4.42%, supporting dollar buying across major pairs. EUR/USD retreated 0.25% to 1.0780, while AUD/USD fell 0.4% to 0.6520 amid renewed risk-off sentiment. The realignment comes as markets digest Federal Reserve officials' hawkish commentary suggesting rates may remain elevated through 2025. EUR/GBP continues its upward trajectory, adding 0.15% to 0.8425 as UK economic concerns persist. NZD/USD underperformed, dropping 0.5% to 0.5950 on commodity weakness. Technical analysis shows the Dollar Index testing resistance at 104.75, with a break potentially opening the path to 105.50. Traders await Thursday's PPI data which could further influence Treasury yields and dollar direction.
EURUSD AUDUSD EURGBP NZDUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

S&P 500 tests resistance ahead of crucial PPI data release

S&P 500 futures hover near 5,850 resistance as markets await Wednesday's Producer Price Index data, which could significantly impact Federal Reserve rate expectations and dollar strength. The index has consolidated in a tight 30-point range over the past three sessions, reflecting uncertainty about inflation trajectory. EUR/USD trades steady at 1.0795, showing resilience despite dollar strength elsewhere. WTI crude oil futures declined 1.2% to $78.30, weighing on commodity currencies. Market positioning suggests heightened sensitivity to inflation surprises, with a higher-than-expected PPI potentially triggering risk-off flows benefiting the dollar. Options data indicates significant hedging activity around the 5,800 support level. A PPI reading above the 0.3% consensus could strengthen the dollar and pressure equities, while a softer print might fuel risk-on sentiment and weaken the greenback against major pairs.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD jumps above 1.08 on softer US CPI, eyes key resistance

EUR/USD surged 0.65% to 1.0825 following softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index data, marking the pair's strongest single-day gain in six weeks. US CPI rose 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% expected, with core CPI matching forecasts at 0.3%, prompting markets to price in earlier Fed rate cuts. The Dollar Index tumbled 0.5% to 103.90, while Treasury yields fell 12 basis points across the curve. Nasdaq futures rallied 1.2% on renewed rate cut optimism, supporting risk sentiment. WTI crude advanced 0.8% to $79.50 on improved demand outlook. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD breaking above the 1.0800 psychological level and 50-day moving average at 1.0810. Next resistance lies at 1.0850 (December high), followed by 1.0880. Support has formed at 1.0800, with deeper backing at 1.0760. Momentum indicators suggest further upside potential if 1.0850 is cleared.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

AUD/USD falls as China trade tensions resurface, CAD outperforms

AUD/USD dropped 0.55% to 0.6485 as renewed US-China trade tensions weigh on the Australian dollar, with reports suggesting tariff discussions have returned to square one. The pair broke below key support at 0.6500, accelerating losses as risk sentiment deteriorated. GBP/USD showed resilience, gaining 0.2% to 1.2740 on UK wage growth data. USD/CAD retreated 0.3% to 1.3580 as oil prices firmed and Canadian employment data exceeded expectations. AUD/CAD plunged 0.8% to 0.8810, reflecting the stark divergence between the commodity currencies. Technical indicators suggest AUD/USD may test 0.6450 support, with the 200-day moving average at 0.6520 now acting as resistance. Trade uncertainty could continue pressuring the Aussie, particularly if Chinese economic data disappoints. Traders are monitoring developments in US-China negotiations closely for further directional cues.
AUDUSD GBPUSD USDCAD AUDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/CAD rises as oil retreats from 200-DMA amid Middle East tensions

USD/CAD has gained 0.15% to 1.3625 as oil prices pulled back from overnight highs near $68.45, coinciding with WTI crude's 200-day moving average. The commodity initially surged to its highest level since April following reports of escalating Middle East tensions, with the US evacuating personnel and Israel reportedly preparing for operations against Iran. However, technical resistance at the 200-DMA has tempered the oil rally, providing relief for the Canadian dollar's recent pressure. The geopolitical risk premium remains elevated, with traders closely monitoring developments that could impact global energy markets. For USD/CAD, immediate support lies at 1.3580 while resistance is seen at 1.3650. A sustained break above oil's 200-DMA could reverse the pair's gains, as higher energy prices typically strengthen the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. Traders should remain cautious as headline risks from the Middle East situation continue to drive volatility.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

Crude oil weakness adds pressure to CAD as WTI drops below $78

WTI crude oil futures declined 2.1% to $77.80, weighing on the Canadian dollar as energy sector concerns mount. USD/CAD rose 0.3% to 1.3720 despite broad dollar weakness, highlighting the loonie's vulnerability to oil price movements. The crude selloff stems from rising US inventories and concerns about global demand amid slowing economic growth. Canada's heavy reliance on energy exports makes CAD particularly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, with the correlation strengthening during periods of volatility. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD approaching resistance at 1.3750, while support holds at 1.3680. The Bank of Canada's dovish tilt compared to other major central banks adds to CAD weakness. Traders should monitor weekly US oil inventory data and any developments in global energy markets, as sustained oil weakness could push USD/CAD toward the 1.3800 level despite dollar headwinds.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD weakens across board as China eases visa policy for 55 nations

The US dollar is experiencing broad-based selling pressure during Asian trading hours, with major currencies posting gains against the greenback. USD/JPY has declined 0.4% to test support near 155.20, while EUR/USD advanced 0.3% to 1.0780. Cable (GBP/USD) gained 0.35% to 1.2650, and USD/CHF dropped 0.3% to 0.8920. Gold prices surged 0.5% to $2,035 per ounce, reflecting risk-off sentiment and dollar weakness. China's announcement of expanded 10-day visa-free transit access to 55 countries, including Indonesia starting June 12, may be contributing to improved risk sentiment in Asian markets. The policy covers 60 entry points across 24 regions including Beijing and Shanghai. Technical indicators suggest further dollar weakness possible, with the DXY index breaking below the 104.50 support level. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data releases for potential catalysts that could either reverse or accelerate the current dollar downtrend.
USDJPY EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF XAUUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/JPY drops 0.4% as safe havens rally in Asian session

The US dollar continues to face selling pressure across the board during Asian trading hours, with safe-haven currencies leading gains. USD/JPY has fallen 0.4% to 155.20, while USD/CHF declined 0.3% to 0.8920, reflecting increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets. EUR/USD climbed 0.3% to 1.0780, and GBP/USD advanced 0.35% to 1.2650, as the dollar index (DXY) broke below key support at 104.50. Gold prices rallied 0.5% to $2,035 per ounce, further confirming the risk-off tone in markets. The persistent dollar weakness suggests traders are positioning defensively ahead of upcoming US economic releases and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY approaching critical support at 155.00, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward 154.50. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could reverse the current dollar downtrend.
USDJPY USDCHF EURUSD GBPUSD XAUUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
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