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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, June 26, 2025

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News Statistics for Thursday, June 26, 2025

18
Total Articles
4
Bullish
11
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3
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Archive date: Thursday, June 26, 2025

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Forexlive

USD weakens as Fed's Barr signals patience on rate cuts amid tariff concerns

The US Dollar Index has softened 0.2% to 105.85 as Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr endorsed a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy, aligning with Chair Powell's cautious stance. Barr highlighted the dual impact of potential tariffs, which could simultaneously push inflation higher while slowing economic growth and increasing unemployment. His emphasis on protecting low-income households from inflation's burden suggests the Fed remains data-dependent rather than rushing to cut rates. Market participants interpret Barr's comments as another dovish voice supporting Powell's patient approach, isolating hawkish members Waller and Bowman. The dollar's weakness has provided relief to major pairs, with EUR/USD testing 1.0420 resistance and GBP/USD approaching 1.2550. Traders are now positioning for potential dollar volatility as tariff uncertainty continues to cloud the inflation outlook, with immediate support for DXY at 105.50.
EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD/CAD breaks below key support as dollar weakness accelerates

USD/CAD has declined sharply by 0.8% (110 pips) to 1.4350, driven by broad-based US dollar weakness across major pairs. The pair broke decisively below the 100-hour moving average at 1.4420 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June rally, confirming bearish momentum. Technical rejection at the 100-hour MA during Asian trading solidified seller control, with the pair now testing the 1.4340 support zone. The move reflects growing concerns about US economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts, while Canadian dollar strength is supported by stable oil prices near $81/barrel. Immediate support lies at 1.4320 (50% retracement), with resistance now established at 1.4420-1.4450. A sustained break below 1.4320 could accelerate losses toward the 1.4250 psychological level, particularly if upcoming US data disappoints market expectations.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

EUR/USD correlation with S&P 500 signals potential dollar instability ahead

The EUR/USD pair has shown an unusual positive correlation with the S&P 500 index, raising concerns about underlying dollar stability as traditional market relationships appear to be breaking down. Currently trading at 1.0415, EUR/USD has gained 0.15% alongside equity strength, diverging from typical risk-off patterns where dollar strength accompanies stock weakness. This correlation breakdown suggests investors are increasingly questioning the dollar's safe-haven status amid mounting fiscal concerns and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD testing the 1.0420 resistance level, with momentum indicators pointing to potential further gains if this level breaks. The Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated to 105.90, showing vulnerability below the key 106.00 psychological level. Market participants are closely monitoring this correlation anomaly as a potential early warning signal for a broader dollar correction, particularly if risk assets continue to rally without corresponding dollar support.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/CHF plunges to 0.8950 as SNB cuts rates to zero amid franc strength

USD/CHF has tumbled 1.2% to 0.8950 following the Swiss National Bank's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut to 0%, surprising markets expecting a smaller reduction. The dramatic policy move aims to counter excessive franc appreciation that threatens to undermine Switzerland's export-dependent economy and GDP growth prospects. Gold prices have surged 0.8% to $2,655 per ounce, benefiting from both dollar weakness and increased safe-haven demand amid monetary policy divergence. The SNB's decision marks a return to zero interest rates, signaling serious concerns about deflationary pressures and economic slowdown. Technical indicators show USD/CHF breaking below crucial support at 0.9000, with next targets at 0.8920 and potentially 0.8850 if selling pressure persists. The franc's strength reflects its traditional safe-haven appeal despite negative rates, while traders position for potential SNB intervention if appreciation continues threatening economic stability.
USDCHF
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Gold surges past $2,650 on Fed dovishness and broad USD weakness

Gold prices have rallied 1.1% to $2,658 per ounce, marking the highest level in three weeks as a combination of Federal Reserve dovishness, geopolitical tensions, and broad dollar weakness drives safe-haven demand. The Dollar Index has retreated 0.3% to 105.75, providing additional tailwind for dollar-denominated commodities. EUR/USD has climbed to 1.0425 while AUD/USD tests 0.6380, both benefiting from the greenback's decline. Fed officials' recent comments suggesting patience on rate adjustments have reduced expectations for aggressive tightening, supporting non-yielding assets like gold. Geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and Middle East continue to underpin defensive positioning. Technical analysis shows gold breaking above the key $2,640 resistance level, with momentum indicators suggesting potential extension toward $2,675. The precious metal's correlation with currency weakness signals continued upside potential if the dollar remains under pressure from dovish Fed communications.
EURUSD AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD steady as ECB's de Guindos notes market calm amid geopolitical risks

EUR/USD maintained stability around 1.0820 as ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos commented on markets' surprising resilience despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. The European Central Bank official's observation highlights the disconnect between heightened global political risks and relatively muted market volatility. Currency markets have shown remarkable composure, with the VIX volatility index remaining below 20 despite Middle East tensions and ongoing Russia-Ukraine concerns. This calm environment has kept EUR/USD trading within a tight 50-pip range over the past week. The pair finds technical support at 1.0800 psychological level, with resistance at 1.0850. Traders appear to be prioritizing economic fundamentals over geopolitical headlines, focusing on upcoming ECB and Fed policy decisions. The subdued volatility could present opportunities for range-trading strategies, though sudden geopolitical escalations remain a key risk that could trigger sharp breakouts.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/JPY falls as dollar weakens broadly in European session, month-end flows

The US dollar declined against major currencies during European morning trade, with USD/JPY dropping 0.5% to 154.20 as month-end rebalancing flows accelerated selling pressure. The greenback faced broad-based weakness across G10 currencies, with the DXY dollar index falling 0.3% to 105.80. Month-end portfolio adjustments by institutional investors and asset managers contributed to dollar selling, as funds rebalanced their currency exposures. EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.0845, while GBP/USD gained 0.6% to 1.2720. The dollar's weakness comes despite relatively hawkish Fed communications, suggesting technical and flow-driven factors are currently dominating fundamentals. Key support for USD/JPY lies at 154.00, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward 153.50. Traders should monitor end-of-month flows through Friday, as these could continue pressuring the dollar regardless of economic data releases.
USDJPY EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD surges to multi-year high above 1.2750 on Fed independence concerns

GBP/USD rocketed to a fresh multi-year peak of 1.2785, gaining 0.8% as concerns over Federal Reserve independence weakened the dollar while a Middle East ceasefire reduced safe-haven demand. Sterling's impressive rally marks its highest level since mid-2023, supported by doubts about the Fed's autonomy following recent political commentary suggesting potential interference in monetary policy decisions. The ceasefire agreement between regional powers has additionally reduced geopolitical risk premiums, encouraging risk-on flows that favor high-yielding currencies like the pound. Technical indicators show GBP/USD has broken above key resistance at 1.2750, opening the path toward 1.2800-1.2850 zone. The DAX index also benefited from improved risk sentiment, climbing 1.2% to 18,450. Traders are closely watching UK inflation data due Friday, which could further support sterling if it exceeds the 2.3% forecast, potentially delaying Bank of England rate cuts.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/JPY drops as Fed's Bowman signals July rate cut possibility

USD/JPY has come under selling pressure following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, who suggested support for a potential rate cut in July if inflationary pressures remain subdued. The dollar index weakened broadly on these remarks, marking a significant shift in Fed communication as Bowman has historically been one of the more hawkish FOMC members. Her openness to easing monetary policy has reinforced market expectations for Fed rate cuts, with futures markets now pricing in increased probability of a July move. The technical picture shows USD/JPY facing immediate support at key levels as bearish momentum builds. Additional dollar weakness emerged from other unspecified catalysts this week, compounding the pressure on the greenback. Traders are reassessing their dollar-long positions as the prospect of earlier Fed easing gains traction, potentially accelerating the pair's decline if support levels fail to hold.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/JPY approaches key breakdown as Nikkei 225 breaks bullish from range

USD/JPY declined to 154.35, testing critical support levels as the dollar faced renewed selling pressure while Japan's Nikkei 225 index achieved a bullish breakout above 39,500. The currency pair is approaching a significant technical breakdown level at 154.00, which has acted as strong support over the past month. A decisive break below could trigger accelerated selling toward 153.00-152.50 zone. Meanwhile, the Nikkei's breakout from its recent trading range signals improved risk appetite and potential yen strength from repatriation flows. EUR/USD advanced 0.4% to 1.0850, while GBP/USD gained 0.6% to 1.2745, confirming broad dollar weakness. AUD/USD also participated in the dollar selloff, rising 0.5% to 0.6680. Technical momentum indicators suggest further dollar weakness ahead, with the RSI on USD/JPY dropping below 40, indicating oversold conditions may be approaching but the downtrend remains intact.
USDJPY EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD index drops on dovish Fed expectations and easing geopolitical tensions

The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 105.75 as markets interpreted recent Federal Reserve communications as increasingly dovish while global geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing. Fed officials' recent speeches suggested growing comfort with current inflation trends, fueling speculation of potential rate cuts in Q3 2025. The dollar's decline accelerated as reduced geopolitical risks diminished safe-haven demand, with Middle East ceasefire talks progressing positively. EUR/USD capitalized on dollar weakness, rising 0.5% to 1.0855, while commodity currencies outperformed with AUD/USD and NZD/USD gaining 0.6% each. The DXY's break below 106.00 support opens the path toward 105.50, where the 50-day moving average provides next support. Market positioning data shows speculative shorts increasing, suggesting further downside potential. Traders await Friday's US PCE inflation data, which could either validate dovish Fed expectations or trigger a dollar rebound if inflation surprises higher.
EURUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Risk-on sentiment pressures USD as markets await key economic data

The US Dollar Index has weakened 0.5% to 104.20 as risk-on sentiment returns to global markets, with S&P 500 futures up 0.7% and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.9%. The dollar's decline reflects growing uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy direction, with markets pricing in a 65% probability of a September rate cut. USD/CAD has dropped 0.6% to 1.4380, while other major pairs show similar dollar weakness. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of today's US GDP revision and weekly jobless claims data, which could significantly impact dollar direction. The shift in sentiment follows yesterday's softer-than-expected consumer confidence data (98.7 vs 100.0 expected), raising questions about US economic momentum. Technical analysis shows the Dollar Index approaching key support at 104.00, while equity market strength suggests continued appetite for risk assets over safe-haven dollars.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD tests 1.1710 as far-right targets EU's von der Leyen

EUR/USD faces pressure near 1.1710 as political uncertainty emerges in the European Union with far-right lawmakers preparing a no-confidence vote against EU President Ursula von der Leyen. The motion centers on the 'Pfizergate' controversy involving alleged lack of transparency in COVID-19 vaccine procurement negotiations with Pfizer during 2021. While the vote faces significant hurdles to pass, the political instability adds to existing headwinds for the euro, which has struggled amid diverging monetary policy expectations between the ECB and other major central banks. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing resistance at 1.1710, with support established at 1.1680. The political development compounds concerns about EU governance stability, potentially limiting euro upside despite recent dollar weakness. Traders should monitor parliamentary developments closely as any escalation could trigger risk-off sentiment, benefiting safe-haven currencies at the euro's expense.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

EUR/USD rises above 1.0700 as Fed uncertainty weighs on dollar

EUR/USD has advanced 0.4% (45 pips) to 1.0720, marking its third consecutive day of gains as US dollar weakness persists amid Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. The Dollar Index has retreated 0.3% to 104.50, breaking below its 20-day moving average at 104.65. Market participants are reassessing Fed rate expectations following mixed economic signals, with implied probabilities for a September cut rising to 68% from 55% last week. The euro's strength is further supported by better-than-expected German business sentiment data, with the Ifo index climbing to 88.6 from 87.0. Technical indicators show EUR/USD breaking above the 1.0700 psychological resistance, with next targets at 1.0750 (June high) and 1.0780 (200-day MA). Support has formed at 1.0680, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential if US data continues to disappoint.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD continues decline across majors in Asia-Pacific session

The US dollar extended its broad-based decline during Thursday's Asia-Pacific trading session, with major currency pairs posting significant gains against the greenback. The dollar index fell 0.4% as traders continued to price in expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance amid cooling inflation data and signs of economic moderation. EUR/USD climbed 0.35% to 1.1708, while GBP/USD advanced 0.42% to 1.3145. The yen strengthened notably with USD/JPY dropping 0.5% to 151.25, approaching key support at 151.00. AUD/USD and NZD/USD both gained approximately 0.6%, benefiting from the risk-on sentiment and commodity price strength. Technical analysis indicates the dollar index has broken below its 50-day moving average at 103.20, suggesting further downside potential toward 102.50. The persistent dollar weakness reflects shifting rate differential expectations and improving global risk appetite, with traders now focusing on upcoming US jobless claims and PCE inflation data.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

EUR/USD surges above 1.1710 on Trump-Powell tension reports

EUR/USD jumped sharply to 1.1715, gaining 0.45% (52 pips) following a Wall Street Journal report suggesting former President Trump is seeking ways to undermine Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's authority. The article sparked immediate dollar selling across the board as traders priced in potential political interference with Fed independence, a development that could compromise the central bank's credibility and weaken the dollar's reserve currency status. The news compounds existing dollar weakness from dovish Fed expectations and adds a new layer of political risk to USD positions. EUR/USD broke through resistance at 1.1700 with strong momentum, targeting the next resistance zone at 1.1750. Support has formed at 1.1680 following the breakout. Market participants are particularly concerned about the implications for Fed policy continuity and the dollar's safe-haven appeal if political pressures intensify. The development suggests heightened volatility ahead for dollar pairs as political risk premiums increase.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/CNH edges lower as China NDRC signals confidence amid external shocks

USD/CNH has softened 0.15% to 7.2890 following reassuring comments from China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) regarding the country's economic resilience. The NDRC official expressed confidence in minimizing the impact of external uncertainties, acknowledging that the global environment has become more complex with challenges to trade growth. China reported improved electricity supply-demand conditions compared to last year, suggesting stable industrial activity. The official emphasized that with current and upcoming policy implementations, China is well-positioned to weather external shocks while maintaining economic stability throughout 2025. Technical indicators show USD/CNH facing resistance at 7.3100, with support established at 7.2750. The yuan's modest strength reflects cautious optimism about China's economic management, though traders remain watchful of global trade tensions and their potential impact on the export-dependent economy.
USDCNH
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
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