Trump: It's hard to make a request for Israel to stop airstrikes, we've talked to IranPhiladelphia Fed Business index for June -4.0 vs -1.0 expectedJapan cancels meeting with US after call for more defense spendingFed's Waller: I'm all in favor of saying 'maybe we should think about cutting' in JulyFeds Barkin sees no rush to cut interest ratesIran finance minister says ready to 'consider' diplomacy 'once the aggression is stopped'Fed's Daly: Things are in balanceUS official says Israel risks...
USD
EUR
JPY
AUD
CAD
NZD
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD has recovered 0.5% to 1.1530, erasing most of the week's losses as safe-haven dollar demand wanes amid de-escalation hopes in the Middle East conflict. The pair traced an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on the hourly chart, targeting a retest of recent highs near 1.1615. The dollar index declined 0.16% as Reuters reported Iran's willingness to discuss uranium enrichment limitations, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Technical indicators show the pair successfully broke above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages during Asian trading, with buyers defending the 1.1445 support level. Immediate resistance lies within the 1.1524-1.1530 swing area. A sustained break above 1.1530 could accelerate gains toward the 1.1615 target, while failure to hold above the 200-hour MA might renew selling pressure. Traders await further developments in diplomatic talks for directional clarity.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is up 43 pips to 1.1537
EURUSD
Source: Marketaux
The dollar index fell 0.16% as safe-haven demand evaporated following reports of potential diplomatic progress between Iran and international negotiators. Reuters reported Iranian officials expressed readiness to discuss uranium enrichment limitations, significantly reducing Middle East conflict risks. Gold prices also retreated from recent highs as risk appetite improved. President Trump's comments suggesting openness to dialogue further calmed market tensions. The dollar's weakness was broad-based, with major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD posting gains. Stock markets rallied on the de-escalation news, with risk-sensitive currencies outperforming. The shift in sentiment marks a reversal from earlier in the week when escalating tensions drove strong safe-haven flows into the dollar. Market participants now await concrete developments from diplomatic channels, with any setbacks likely to quickly restore defensive positioning in the greenback.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has staged a technical recovery, breaking above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages to reach the critical 1.1524-1.1530 resistance zone. After sellers failed to sustain momentum below the 200-hour MA on Wednesday, driving the pair to 1.1445, buyers defended this key support level aggressively. The subsequent rebound saw the pair clear multiple technical hurdles during Asian trading hours. Current price action shows consolidation within the swing area between 1.15239 and 1.15295, with bulls attempting to establish a foothold above these levels. The successful defense of 1.1445 and subsequent MA breaks suggest shifting momentum. However, the 1.1530 area represents significant resistance that must be cleared for continuation toward recent highs at 1.1615. Failure to break above current levels could see renewed selling pressure, with initial support at the 200-hour MA around 1.1490.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Major currency pairs remained confined to tight ranges during Friday's European session, with traders reluctant to establish significant positions ahead of the weekend. EUR/USD held steady near 1.0850, while GBP/USD tested 1.2700 support following disappointing UK retail sales data that plunged -2.7% MoM versus -0.5% expected. USD/JPY consolidated around 157.50 after BOJ Governor Ueda acknowledged Japan's moderate economic recovery, though the central bank signaled no immediate policy changes. Market participants noted heightened caution due to ongoing trade discussions between Japan-US and China-EU, with potential weekend developments creating gap risk. German PPI data showed a -0.2% decline, adding to deflationary concerns in the eurozone. Technical indicators suggest continued consolidation, with major pairs respecting established support and resistance levels as volumes thin ahead of the weekly close.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD trades flat around 1.4375 as markets await Canada's retail sales data, which could provide direction for the pair. The Canadian dollar has shown resilience despite broader US dollar weakness, supported by stable oil prices above $77 per barrel. Analysts expect Canadian retail sales to show a 0.3% monthly increase, potentially strengthening the loonie if data exceeds forecasts. The pair remains within a tight 1.4350-1.4400 range, with technical indicators suggesting consolidation. A break above 1.4400 could target the recent high at 1.4450, while support at 1.4350 has held firm through multiple tests. Bank of Canada rate expectations remain unchanged, with markets pricing in potential easing later this year. The retail sales release could trigger a breakout from the current range, particularly if the data significantly deviates from consensus expectations.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar retreated across major pairs following reports of President Trump's policy reversal on Iran, reducing geopolitical tensions and triggering an unwind of safe-haven positions. EUR/USD advanced 0.4% to test 1.0870 resistance, while GBP/USD climbed above 1.2720. USD/JPY fell sharply by 0.6% to 156.80 as risk appetite improved, with the yen benefiting from both dollar weakness and reduced safe-haven demand for USD. USD/CHF dropped to 0.8920, confirming broad-based dollar selling pressure. The policy shift caught markets off-guard, with traders who had positioned for escalating Middle East tensions forced to cover short EUR and GBP positions. Equity futures pointed higher, suggesting improved risk sentiment could further pressure the dollar. Near-term support for EUR/USD sits at 1.0850, with potential for extension toward 1.0900 if risk-on sentiment persists through the session.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD rallied 0.4% to 0.6580, benefiting from upbeat Chinese economic indicators and broad US dollar weakness. China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year-over-year, exceeding the 5.0% forecast, while industrial production rose 6.8% versus 6.5% expected. Retail sales also impressed with 8.7% growth against 8.3% consensus. The positive data reinforces China's economic recovery narrative, directly supporting the Australian dollar given strong trade ties. Additionally, iron ore prices jumped 2.3% on improved Chinese demand outlook, further boosting AUD sentiment. Technical analysis shows the pair breaking above the 50-day moving average at 0.6565, with next resistance at 0.6600. The combination of dollar weakness and China optimism suggests potential for further gains, though traders remain cautious about RBA policy divergence with other major central banks. Support is established at 0.6550.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Major currency pairs are trading in tight ranges during European morning trade, with EUR/USD holding steady near 1.0800 and GBP/USD around 1.2700. The US Dollar Index remains unchanged at 106.20 as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach amid escalating Middle East tensions. Market participants are particularly cautious about potential US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, leading to subdued volatility across all major pairs. USD/JPY continues to hover near 157.50, while commodity currencies AUD/USD and USD/CAD show minimal movement at 0.6650 and 1.3750 respectively. Risk sentiment remains fragile, with safe-haven flows balanced between the dollar and traditional havens like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Technical indicators suggest consolidation patterns across the board, with traders awaiting clearer geopolitical developments before committing to directional positions.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Gold prices have declined 0.8% to $2,318 per ounce as Federal Reserve officials maintain their hawkish rhetoric despite easing inflation pressures. The precious metal faced additional headwinds from a stronger US Dollar Index, which climbed 0.3% to 106.45. Middle East tensions between Iran and Israel provided limited support, with safe-haven demand offset by expectations of prolonged higher US interest rates. EUR/USD weakened to 1.0785 (-0.2%) as the dollar strengthened across the board. Fed Governor Bowman reiterated the need for restrictive monetary policy, dampening hopes for rate cuts in 2024. Technical analysis shows gold breaking below the key support at $2,325, opening the path toward $2,300. The metal's inverse correlation with real yields remains intact, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding firm at 4.45%. Traders are monitoring upcoming US economic data for further directional cues.
EURUSD
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar entered a consolidation phase as conflict-driven safe-haven flows diminished, leaving traders searching for fresh directional catalysts. EUR/USD stabilized around 1.0855 after failing to breach 1.0880 resistance, while GBP/USD held above 1.2700 support. EUR/GBP remained range-bound near 0.8550, reflecting similar fundamental backdrops for both European currencies. Notable movement emerged in EUR/NOK, which approached the 11.70 level as oil prices softened and Norwegian krone faced pressure from declining energy sector revenues. Without significant economic data releases, forex markets lacked conviction, with implied volatility measures dropping to monthly lows. Technical indicators suggest the dollar index needs to break below 104.20 support or above 104.80 resistance to establish a clear trend. Traders await next week's central bank speeches and economic data for potential market catalysts.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
EURGBP
EURNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has surged 0.6% to 157.85, approaching the psychological 158.00 level after Japan's core CPI accelerated to 2.9% year-over-year in May, exceeding forecasts of 2.6%. The inflation overshoot intensifies pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider policy normalization, though officials remain cautious about aggressive tightening. The yen's weakness persists despite the inflation data, with the interest rate differential between the US and Japan continuing to favor dollar strength. WTI crude oil's rise to $81.50 per barrel adds to Japan's import cost pressures, potentially fueling further inflation. Technical indicators show USD/JPY breaking above the 157.50 resistance, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential toward 158.50. The BoJ faces a delicate balancing act between supporting economic growth and addressing persistent inflation, with markets increasingly pricing in a potential policy shift by year-end.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY remains stable around 156.50 as Japanese trade representative Akazawa clarifies that the July 9 deadline for US-Japan trade negotiations is not fixed. The official emphasized Japan will not compromise its negotiating position despite the approaching date, stating he never confirmed July 9 as a hard deadline. This development reduces immediate pressure on the yen from potential trade concessions. Market participants are monitoring whether negotiations will extend beyond the initial timeframe, which could impact bilateral trade flows and currency dynamics. The pair continues trading within a narrow 156.20-156.80 range, with traders awaiting clearer signals on trade outcomes. Technical indicators suggest consolidation, with resistance at 157.00 and support at 156.00. Any breakthrough in negotiations or deadline extensions could trigger volatility in USD/JPY positioning.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
NZD/USD remains under pressure near 0.5780, declining 0.4% despite New Zealand PM's successful China trade mission securing NZ$871 million in commercial deals. The kiwi faces headwinds from persistent risk-off sentiment driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, overshadowing positive developments from Wellington's diplomatic efforts. China accounts for 20% of New Zealand's exports, making these trade relationships crucial for NZD stability. However, broader market uncertainty and safe-haven flows into USD continue to weigh on the pair. Technical indicators suggest immediate support at 0.5750, with resistance forming at 0.5820. Despite Q1 GDP data showing resilience, risk aversion dominates price action. Traders should monitor upcoming Chinese economic data and any escalation in regional tensions, as these factors will likely determine near-term direction for the kiwi dollar.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
