AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Forexlive

Jun 4, 2025

ICYMI: Saudi Arabia lowered some July price of crude for Asia, raised for Northwest Europe

Saudi Arabia state-owned oil company Saudi Arabian Oil Co. lowered its official selling price for July loadings of Arab Light to Asia to $1.20 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, $1.40 in June. Aramco’s latest pricing moves suggest a softer demand outlook in Asia, with cuts across its light and medium crude grades, while the price for Arab Heavy remained unchanged.In contrast, the company raised its prices to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $1.80 per barrel.

EUR AUD

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jun 4, 2025

Bank of Canada Stays on Hold—Tariffs, Inflation Jitters Keep Easing on Ice

Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Canadian Dollar. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com

USDCAD

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jun 4, 2025

USD/JPY volatility spikes with 130-pip swings on weak US data

USD/JPY experienced extreme volatility this week, with three consecutive 130-pip moves: dropping Monday, rebounding Tuesday, and falling again Wednesday to close around 149.20. The pair's dramatic swings mark a departure from its historically stable trading patterns. Wednesday's decline was triggered by disappointing US economic data, with ADP employment coming in below expectations and ISM Services PMI showing unexpected weakness. The selling pressure intensified during the US session as traders digested the data's implications for Federal Reserve policy. Technical indicators suggest the pair is testing key support at 149.00, with resistance now established at 150.50. The heightened volatility reflects growing uncertainty about US economic resilience and potential shifts in the Fed's monetary stance. Traders should prepare for continued choppy price action as markets reassess the dollar's strength amid mixed economic signals.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

Forexlive

Jun 4, 2025

USD/RUB volatility rises as Putin rules out Ukraine ceasefire prospects

USD/RUB traded volatile around 92.50 levels following Russian President Putin's statement doubting ceasefire possibilities with Ukraine after recent attacks. The ruble weakened 0.8% against the dollar in early Moscow trading, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions. Market participants are pricing in increased risk of military escalation, which could prompt further capital outflows from Russian assets. The Central Bank of Russia's key rate at 16% continues to provide some support for the ruble, though geopolitical factors are dominating price action. Technical indicators show USD/RUB testing resistance at 93.00, with a break above potentially opening the path to 94.50. Support sits at 91.80, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Traders should prepare for increased volatility in emerging market currencies, particularly those with exposure to the region, as the situation develops.

USDRUB

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jun 4, 2025

EUR/USD: US Dollar in Focus Ahead of Expected Trump - Xi Call, ECB and NFP

Market Analysis by covering: Euro US Dollar, US Dollar Index Futures, US Dollar Index RT. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com

EURUSD

Source: Marketaux

zerohedge.com

Jun 4, 2025

Bank of Canada holds rates at 2.75% amid Trump tariff uncertainty

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.75% as expected, adopting a cautious stance while assessing potential impacts from threatened US tariffs under the Trump administration. USD/CAD traded relatively stable around 1.4350 following the announcement, with the Canadian dollar finding support from the central bank's wait-and-see approach. The BoC highlighted concerns about trade policy uncertainty and its potential effects on Canadian economic growth and inflation dynamics. Markets are pricing in limited rate movement in the near term as policymakers navigate the complex trade environment. The decision reflects growing challenges for commodity-linked currencies facing protectionist pressures. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD consolidating within a 1.4300-1.4400 range, with a breakout likely dependent on concrete tariff developments. Traders should monitor US-Canada trade negotiations closely as any escalation could significantly impact the loonie's trajectory against the greenback.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Jun 4, 2025

USD/CAD steady at 1.4350 as BOC holds rates at 2.75% as expected

USD/CAD remained stable near 1.4350 following the Bank of Canada's decision to maintain interest rates at 2.75%, in line with market expectations. The Canadian dollar showed limited reaction as traders had already priced in the hold, with only a 26% probability of a cut anticipated. The central bank's statement maintained a cautious tone on inflation, suggesting rates may remain elevated through Q3 2025. Market focus now shifts to the July 30 BOC meeting, where economists see a higher probability of policy adjustment. Oil prices at $72.50/barrel are providing moderate support for CAD, offsetting some dollar strength. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD consolidating between 1.4320 support and 1.4380 resistance. A decisive break above resistance could target 1.4420, while failure to hold support may see a retest of 1.4280. The pair's direction will likely depend on upcoming Canadian employment data and oil price movements.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Jun 4, 2025

USD/CAD faces uncertainty ahead of BOC decision with 26% cut probability

USD/CAD traded in a tight range around 1.4340 ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision, with markets pricing a 26% chance of a 25bp cut from the current 2.75% rate. The low probability reflects mixed Canadian economic data, with inflation showing signs of persistence while growth remains subdued. Most economists expect the BOC to hold steady today while signaling potential easing at the July 30 meeting. The Canadian dollar has been supported by WTI crude oil holding above $72/barrel and relatively stable risk sentiment. Technical indicators show USD/CAD trapped between 1.4300 support and 1.4380 resistance. A hawkish hold could push the pair toward 1.4300, while any surprise cut would likely propel USD/CAD above 1.4400. Traders are positioning cautiously, with implied volatility rising ahead of the announcement. The decision's forward guidance will be crucial for determining CAD's trajectory through summer 2025.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Jun 4, 2025

EUR/USD holds 1.0520 as markets await concrete US trade policy details

EUR/USD consolidated around 1.0520 during the European session, with minimal 0.1% movement as traders awaited clarity on US trade developments. The pair remained range-bound between 1.0500 support and 1.0540 resistance, reflecting market uncertainty over potential tariff implementations. European economic data was limited, with focus shifting to upcoming US trade policy announcements that could significantly impact dollar valuations. The euro found mild support from steady German industrial orders data, though broader eurozone growth concerns persist. Technical indicators suggest a neutral bias, with the 200-day moving average at 1.0510 acting as a pivot point. A break above 1.0540 could target 1.0580, while failure to hold 1.0500 may expose 1.0460. Traders remain cautious, evidenced by subdued volatility across major pairs. The lack of concrete trade policy details continues to limit directional conviction in forex markets.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jun 4, 2025

Trade War Risks Ease: USD Weakens on De-escalation Expectations

The US dollar has weakened across major pairs as markets price in reduced trade war risks following the April 9 tariff pause. This de-escalation has shifted sentiment from recession fears to growth optimism, with soft economic data showing improvement. The dollar index dropped 0.2% as traders anticipate continued global growth recovery and persistent disinflation trends. Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD gained 0.3-0.4% against the greenback. Market participants are monitoring upcoming PMI releases and central bank communications for confirmation of the growth rebound. Technical indicators suggest the DXY faces resistance at 104.50, with support established at 103.80. The improved risk appetite could continue pressuring the dollar if global growth data maintains its positive trajectory, particularly benefiting commodity currencies and emerging market forex pairs.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD NZDUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

benzinga.com

Jun 4, 2025

USD Weakens: Asian Markets Rally, EUR/USD Tests 1.09 Resistance

The US dollar retreated 0.15% during Asian and European sessions as risk appetite improved amid positive trade talk developments. Asian equities led the rally with the Nikkei up 1.2% and Shanghai Composite gaining 0.8%, pressuring safe-haven dollar demand. EUR/USD advanced to 1.0890, approaching the key 1.09 psychological resistance level. GBP/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.2745, while USD/JPY slipped 0.3% to 155.20 as yen strength emerged. European markets followed Asia's lead with DAX futures up 0.6%. The dollar index (DXY) fell to 104.25, testing support at the 50-day moving average. Traders are positioning for potential further dollar weakness if risk-on sentiment persists. Key levels to watch include EUR/USD resistance at 1.0900 and DXY support at 104.00, with breakthrough potentially accelerating the current moves.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

forexcrunch.com

Jun 4, 2025

AUD/USD rises as dollar weakens ahead of critical tariff negotiations

AUD/USD climbed 0.4% to 0.6520 despite Australia reporting disappointing GDP growth, as broad dollar weakness ahead of crucial tariff discussions provided support for the Aussie. The US dollar index fell 0.3% as markets positioned cautiously before high-stakes trade negotiations that could reshape global commerce flows. Australian GDP data showed slower-than-expected growth, but currency traders focused more on the greenback's vulnerability to trade policy uncertainty. Technical indicators point to immediate resistance at 0.6550, with support established at 0.6480. The pair's strength despite weak domestic data underscores how US policy concerns are currently dominating forex market sentiment. Risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD could see increased volatility as tariff talks progress. Traders should watch for any breakthrough or breakdown in negotiations, which could trigger sharp moves in commodity-linked currencies against the dollar.

AUDUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Jun 4, 2025

EUR/USD Gains 0.2% as Dollar Softens in Quiet European Trade

EUR/USD edged higher by 0.2% to 1.0875 during subdued European morning trading, with the dollar index declining 0.15% to 104.30. The move lacked significant catalysts, suggesting position adjustments ahead of key data releases. GBP/USD advanced modestly to 1.2730, while USD/JPY held steady near 155.50. Trading volumes remained below average with no major economic releases scheduled. The euro found support at the 1.0850 level, coinciding with the 20-day moving average. Dollar weakness appears technical rather than fundamental, with traders awaiting Thursday's ECB meeting minutes and Friday's US jobs data for clearer direction. Immediate resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.0890, while broader dollar weakness could push the pair toward 1.0920. The lack of volatility suggests consolidation phase continuing until fresh fundamental drivers emerge.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jun 4, 2025

USD/CAD Tests 1.3650 Support Ahead of BoC Rate Decision

USD/CAD declined 0.3% to 1.3655, testing critical support at the ascending trendline from March lows ahead of today's Bank of Canada rate decision. Markets price in 65% probability of a 25bp rate cut to 4.50%, which could accelerate CAD weakness if materialized. The pair has traded in a 1.3600-1.3750 range for three weeks, with current price action suggesting potential breakdown. Oil prices supported CAD with WTI crude up 0.8% to $76.40. Technical indicators show RSI at 45, indicating neutral momentum, while the 200-day MA at 1.3620 provides additional support. A dovish BoC could propel USD/CAD toward 1.3750 resistance, while a hawkish surprise might trigger a break below 1.3600. Traders should monitor the BoC's forward guidance on future cuts, particularly given Canada's cooling inflation and sluggish GDP growth.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jun 4, 2025

EUR/USD edges higher as Eurozone PMI beats expectations at 50.2

EUR/USD gained 0.15% to 1.0865 as Eurozone composite PMI data surprised to the upside, printing at 50.2 versus 49.5 preliminary estimates. The services PMI was revised higher to 49.7 from 48.9, though still below the expansion threshold of 50. While the data suggests marginal economic growth rather than contraction, underlying fundamentals remain weak with German demand particularly subdued. The euro found support as markets had positioned for worse readings, though gains remain limited given the economy is essentially stalling. Business confidence continues to lag amid ongoing uncertainty about ECB policy direction and regional growth prospects. Technical resistance sits at 1.0890, with support at 1.0840. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for policy hints, as the central bank balances persistent inflation concerns against weakening growth momentum.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jun 4, 2025

GBP/USD Holds at 3-Year High 1.2780 on Sterling Strength

GBP/USD maintained its position near three-year highs at 1.2780, consolidating after last week's 1.2% rally driven by hawkish Bank of England expectations. The pound showed resilience despite softer UK manufacturing PMI at 51.2 versus 51.5 expected. Markets price in only 35bp of BoE rate cuts for 2025, supporting sterling's outperformance. The pair tested resistance at 1.2800 twice this week without breaking through, while support formed at 1.2750 (previous resistance turned support). UK wage growth remains elevated at 5.2% annually, reinforcing the BoE's cautious stance on rate cuts. Technical momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions with RSI at 72. A decisive break above 1.2800 could target 1.2850, while failure might trigger profit-taking toward 1.2700. Sterling's strength reflects diverging monetary policy expectations between the BoE and other major central banks.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jun 4, 2025

DXY holds 106.50 gains but rally stalls on US tariff uncertainty

The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained gains near 106.50 but momentum faded as doubts emerged over the implementation timeline of proposed tariffs. After rallying 1.2% last week on hawkish Fed expectations, the dollar's advance stalled as traders questioned whether trade measures would materialize as quickly as initially anticipated. Market positioning data shows leveraged funds remain net-long dollars, though conviction has weakened. The index faces resistance at 107.00, coinciding with the November 2024 high, while support sits at 106.20. EUR/USD traded sideways at 1.0520, while USD/JPY held 150.80 amid mixed risk sentiment. Aluminum prices rose 0.8% on supply concerns, providing slight headwinds for the dollar. Technical indicators suggest the DXY is overbought on daily timeframes, increasing the risk of a pullback toward 105.80. Traders await concrete policy announcements and this week's US economic data for fresh directional catalysts.

DXY EURUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jun 4, 2025

Gold falls as USD strengthens ahead of crucial US jobs report

Gold prices declined 0.8% to $2,315 per ounce as the US dollar gained strength ahead of Friday's pivotal Non-Farm Payrolls report. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 105.20, pressuring gold and other dollar-denominated commodities. Markets are positioning for potentially strong employment data that could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and support further dollar appreciation. EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.0780 while AUD/USD dropped 0.5% to 0.6480, reflecting broad-based dollar strength across major pairs. Technical analysis shows gold testing support at $2,310, with resistance at $2,340. A strong jobs report could push gold toward the $2,300 psychological level, while disappointing data might trigger a relief rally. Forex traders should note the inverse correlation between dollar strength and gold prices, which often provides hedging opportunities during periods of economic uncertainty.

EURUSD AUDUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jun 4, 2025

USD/CAD upside momentum builds as BoC rate cut odds diminish

USD/CAD advanced 0.6% to 1.4420 as diminishing Bank of Canada rate cut expectations and surprising economic data strengthened the case for further upside. Canadian inflation data came in higher than expected at 2.9%, while GDP growth surprised to the upside, reducing market expectations for aggressive BoC easing. The pair broke above key resistance at 1.4400, with technical indicators suggesting momentum toward 1.4500. Markets have significantly reduced rate cut pricing, with only 25 basis points of easing now expected over the next six months, compared to 50 basis points previously. The Canadian dollar's resilience faces tests from both domestic economic strength and external trade policy risks. Near-term support has formed at 1.4380, with a break below potentially signaling consolidation. Traders should monitor upcoming Canadian employment data and any developments in US-Canada trade relations for directional cues.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jun 4, 2025

USD/CAD eyes decline on imminent US-Canada trade deal prospects

USD/CAD faces potential downward pressure as reports suggest a US-Canada trade agreement could materialize before the G7 summit next week. Pete Hoekstra, Trump's new envoy to Canada, delivered an optimistic speech at Toronto's Empire Club, expressing confidence in the bilateral relationship's trajectory. The Toronto Sun reports that speculation is mounting about an imminent deal, which could strengthen the Canadian dollar against its US counterpart. Market participants are closely monitoring developments, as any trade agreement would likely reduce uncertainty and boost CAD through improved trade flows and investor confidence. Technical traders should watch the 1.3600 psychological level as immediate support, with a break below potentially accelerating CAD gains toward 1.3550. The timing before the G7 summit adds significance, as it could set a positive tone for broader international cooperation. Traders should prepare for increased volatility in USD/CAD as negotiations progress.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

Forexlive

Jun 4, 2025

USD/CNY faces pressure as Trump plans mineral production emergency powers

USD/CNY trading remains volatile as markets digest Trump's plans to invoke emergency powers for fast-tracking domestic critical minerals production, potentially escalating US-China trade tensions. The move would bypass congressional approval requirements for projects exceeding $50 million and eliminate strict delivery timelines, mirroring Biden's COVID-19 emergency waivers. Despite these measures, experts caution that the US will remain dependent on China for critical minerals in the near term, with domestic production expansion requiring 5-10 years to materialize. The announcement adds to existing trade uncertainties, with traders monitoring potential retaliatory measures from Beijing. Technical levels show USD/CNY testing resistance near 7.2500, while support holds at 7.2200. The development could strengthen the dollar against commodity currencies but may face headwinds if China responds with currency depreciation or trade restrictions, creating additional volatility in Asian forex markets.

USDCNY

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Finnhub