NZ business survey and China trade data due to test recovery narrative Tuesday's Asia calendar carries two releases with genuine policy weight, even if neither lands with US market-moving force in isolation. The NZIER survey is being watched less for its headline average and more for the shape of the quarter, since the survey window straddled the mid June ceasefire and a split between early and late responses would tell the RBNZ far more than a blended number.
USD
Source: Finnhub
US navy details that it will enforce a full blockade on IranUS June federal budget deficit $120 billion vs $138 billion expectedMore from Fed Waller: Now is not the time to use forward guidance.Waller: If there is another hot reading on core inflation this week, the Fed will need to consider raising ratesTrump reimposes Iran blockade, places 20% toll on Hormuz shippingUS 2-year yields touched the highest since February 2025Trump: We're taking over the Strait of HormuzMarkets:WTI crude oil up...
USD
EUR
JPY
AUD
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices are pushing higher following reports from Tasnim News Agency of an attack on Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums across energy and forex markets. Traders are watching the $77.10 level as a key upside target, with a break above that threshold likely to attract further momentum buying. The attack underscores ongoing security concerns in the Middle East, a region critical to global oil supply. Rising oil prices tend to benefit commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while pressuring oil-importing nations' currencies, particularly JPY and EUR. USD/CAD could face downward pressure if crude continues to rally, as higher oil revenues support the Canadian dollar. Near-term market positioning is expected to remain sensitive to further geopolitical developments, with safe-haven flows potentially boosting USD, CHF, and JPY. Traders should monitor headline risk closely, as escalation could trigger significant volatility across major forex pairs.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The GBPUSD has extended its move to the downside after failing to hold above a key technical confluence near 1.3399. That area is defined by the 100-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the 50% retracement of the rally from the May low. Repeated failures against that cluster have shifted the near-term bias back in favor of the sellers.During the North American session, the pair has fallen to its rising 200-hour moving average, currently at 1.3365.
USD
GBP
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar has strengthened broadly as President Trump announced the reimposition of what he termed 'The Iranian Blockade,' restricting Iranian vessels and their customers from transiting the Strait of Hormuz while imposing a 20% toll on all other shipping through the critical waterway. The announcement, made via Truth Social, has sent crude oil prices sharply higher given that approximately 20% of global oil supply transits the strait daily. The toll effectively acts as a tax on global energy trade, raising inflationary concerns that could complicate the Federal Reserve's rate path under Chair Warsh ahead of the July 29 FOMC meeting. USD/CAD and USD/NOK are reacting as oil-linked currencies face crosswinds between higher crude prices and risk-off dollar demand. Safe-haven flows have boosted USD/JPY and USD/CHF, though yen strength from carry trade unwinding partially offsets dollar gains against the Japanese currency. Traders should monitor escalation risks closely, as further military developments could trigger significant volatility across commodity-linked and safe-haven pairs.
USDJPY
USDCAD
USDNOK
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The USDCAD pushed higher during the early Asian session but once again ran into willing sellers at the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.41685. That level has become a reliable barometer for short-term bias. Last Wednesday, buyers tested the moving average and failed.
USD
CAD
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index recorded a mixed but slightly firmer performance against major currencies during the week ended July 10, as traders navigated competing forces of Federal Reserve monetary policy uncertainty and renewed safe-haven demand sparked by Middle East conflict escalation. The dollar benefited from its safe-haven status amid geopolitical tensions, but gains were capped by unclear signals regarding the Fed's next rate move, leaving market participants divided on the trajectory of US interest rates. EUR/USD and GBP/USD faced intermittent selling pressure as risk sentiment deteriorated, while USD/JPY saw two-way flows as both currencies attracted haven bids. The Dollar Index found support near recent lows but lacked conviction for a decisive breakout higher. Traders are closely watching upcoming US inflation data and Fed commentary for directional clarity. Near-term resistance on the DXY sits at the weekly highs, while a break lower could signal broader dollar softness. Positioning remains cautious ahead of key macro catalysts.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
US 2-year Treasury yields have surged to their highest levels since February 2025, reflecting growing market expectations that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh may deliver a rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting. The Fed funds rate currently sits at 3.50-3.75% following three consecutive cuts in September, October, and December 2025. BMO's head of US rates strategy Ian Lyngen notes that Warsh's refusal to provide forward guidance has left markets pricing in a 'July surprise,' driving consistent cheapening in the 2-year sector. The yield spike is providing a tailwind for the US dollar, particularly against low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. USD/JPY faces competing forces as higher yields support dollar demand while geopolitical tensions encourage safe-haven yen buying. EUR/USD is also under pressure as the rate differential narrative favors the greenback. Traders should watch for any pre-FOMC commentary from Fed officials that could further clarify the policy outlook and drive short-term positioning in dollar pairs.
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The USD is mixed to start the new trading day with the NZD vs the USD as the biggest mover at the greenback -0.42% on the day. Meanwhile the USD is higher by 0.24% vs the JPY as buyers in the USDJPY return after the decline on Friday. The USD is lower vs the EUR and higher vs the GBP as the markets deal with the shifting winds of war, and it's implications.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
NZD
Source: Finnhub
President Trump's declaration that the United States is 'taking over the Strait of Hormuz' has triggered a sharp risk-off move across global forex markets, with crude oil prices spiking on fears of a full resumption of the US-Iran military conflict. Trump's assertion that 'Iran has nothing' suggests a willingness to escalate, though the absence of a TACO (Trade And Commerce Order) at the start of the week leaves the scope of further action uncertain. The dollar is strengthening against most G10 currencies as safe-haven demand surges, while commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars face mixed signals from higher oil prices versus deteriorating risk sentiment. USD/JPY remains a key pair to watch as carry trade positioning could amplify volatility if risk aversion deepens further. WTI crude futures are bid sharply, supporting inflation expectations and complicating the near-term monetary policy outlook globally. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility and wider spreads, particularly during illiquid weekend gaps if further military developments emerge over the coming sessions.
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY faces heightened two-way risk as the US-Iran military conflict drives crude oil prices sharply higher while simultaneously raising the specter of a significant yen carry trade unwind. The pair is caught between opposing forces: rising US yields and dollar strength from safe-haven flows support the upside, while institutional deleveraging and risk-off yen demand threaten a swift downside reversal reminiscent of the August 2024 carry unwind episode. WTI crude futures have surged on supply disruption fears through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. The Bank of Japan's policy stance becomes increasingly relevant as higher energy import costs could accelerate Japanese inflation, potentially prompting a more hawkish tilt. Key technical levels include resistance near recent highs, with significant stop-loss clusters below that could accelerate a move lower if carry positions are liquidated. Traders should exercise caution with position sizing given the binary nature of geopolitical risk, and monitor cross-asset correlations between oil, yields, and yen pairs for early signals of a broader risk event.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Oil prices are consolidating near recent highs as escalating US-Iran tensions dominate market sentiment to start the new week. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a halt following renewed confrontations, raising supply disruption fears that are supporting crude prices. Iran has reaffirmed it will not uphold its end of the nuclear deal as long as the US remains non-compliant, though mediators continue diplomatic efforts. The geopolitical risk premium is weighing on risk sentiment broadly, with safe-haven flows potentially benefiting JPY and CHF. On the monetary policy front, Fed's Williams signaled support for rate hikes if monthly core inflation consistently runs above 0.2% on average, reinforcing a hawkish bias for the dollar. Japan's chief cabinet secretary also made remarks, keeping USD/JPY traders alert. Traders should monitor oil price action closely, as sustained elevation could feed into inflation expectations and shift central bank rate path calculations. Key pairs to watch include USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/USD given their sensitivity to commodity and risk dynamics.
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Global forex markets are experiencing significant volatility as the escalation in US-Iran hostilities roils investor sentiment across all asset classes. Risk-sensitive currencies including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and emerging market pairs are under heavy selling pressure as traders rotate into traditional safe havens. The US dollar index is broadly stronger, though gains against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are tempered by competing safe-haven demand for those currencies. EUR/USD has retreated as European markets digest the implications of a potential energy supply shock, with the eurozone particularly vulnerable given its reliance on Middle Eastern oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Equity markets are flashing red, correlating with strengthening demand for the yen and franc. Gold prices have also surged, reflecting broad-based risk aversion that typically accompanies military escalations. Near-term forex volatility measures have spiked, suggesting options markets are pricing in sustained uncertainty. Traders should be prepared for headline-driven moves and consider reducing leverage, as liquidity conditions may deteriorate if the conflict intensifies further over the coming sessions.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Ferrari N.V. has disclosed the latest periodic update on its Euro 250 million share buyback program, announced on April 10, 2026, representing the second tranche of a broader multi-year buyback initiative targeting approximately Euro 3.5 billion in repurchases through 2030. The purchases were executed on the Euronext Milan exchange. While this corporate action is primarily an equity market event, it carries indirect forex implications. Large-scale euro-denominated buybacks can generate marginal EUR demand as the company allocates capital within European markets. However, the incremental daily volumes are unlikely to materially move EUR/USD or other euro crosses. The announcement aligns with Ferrari's capital allocation strategy outlined during its 2025 Capital Markets Day. For forex traders, the broader takeaway is the continued confidence of major European corporates in deploying capital, which signals underlying economic stability in the Eurozone. EUR/USD traders should focus on more impactful macro drivers such as ECB policy and upcoming US inflation data rather than individual corporate actions.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is at a critical inflection point as traders position ahead of a pivotal US inflation report that is expected to determine the pair's near-term trajectory. Analysts emphasize that the Consumer Price Index data will be the dominant catalyst, with a softer-than-expected reading likely to fuel dovish Federal Reserve expectations and push EUR/USD higher, while a hot print could reinforce the dollar's strength and drive the pair lower. The pair has been consolidating in recent sessions as market participants await clarity on the Fed's rate path. Brent crude oil dynamics are also factoring into the equation, as elevated energy prices feed into inflation expectations and complicate central bank decision-making on both sides of the Atlantic. Technical levels to watch include key resistance zones overhead and established support below current price action. The ECB's own policy stance remains a secondary driver, with traders primarily focused on US macro developments. Near-term volatility is expected to spike around the data release, making risk management essential for open EUR/USD positions.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to weigh on broader forex sentiment as Tehran's foreign ministry confirmed that Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan are actively mediating between the US and Iran. The spokesperson noted that discussions are ongoing, offering a glimmer of hope that nuclear negotiations could resume at some stage, though talks do not appear imminent. This development comes alongside renewed concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint. The continuation of mediation efforts provides marginal relief to risk-sensitive currencies, though the lack of concrete progress keeps safe-haven demand elevated. USD pairs remain sensitive to any escalation, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF likely to react to shifts in risk appetite. Oil-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK also face indirect exposure through crude price volatility tied to Hormuz shipping disruptions. Traders should monitor headlines closely, as any breakdown in mediation could trigger sharp moves in risk-off assets and energy-correlated pairs.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY faces downward pressure after Japan's chief cabinet secretary reaffirmed that the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) — the world's largest pension fund — will adjust its basic portfolio as needed. This follows Friday's remarks from Finance Minister Katayama, who stated the government would encourage the GPIF to make substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets. The comments sparked yen appreciation and a rally in domestic bonds, as markets speculate that billions of dollars could be redirected into Japanese markets. A significant GPIF rebalancing toward domestic assets would reduce foreign currency exposure, potentially triggering sustained yen buying flows. USD/JPY traders should watch for any formal GPIF policy announcements, which could accelerate the pair's move lower. Near-term support sits around key psychological levels, while resistance remains at recent highs. The broader implication is structurally bullish for the yen, as pension fund repatriation flows would represent a fundamental shift in capital allocation away from US dollar-denominated assets.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forex markets are set for a subdued session as the economic calendar remains largely empty across major regions. The European session carries no scheduled data releases, leaving traders without fresh catalysts. Fed Governor Bowman is slated to speak at a Bank Policy Institute Roundtable on Modernizing Financial Regulation, though the topic suggests she is unlikely to address the current economic outlook or monetary policy direction. As a result, major USD pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are expected to trade within tight ranges, driven primarily by position adjustments and technical flows. Without meaningful data or central bank guidance, volatility is likely to remain compressed. Traders may look to position ahead of upcoming macro events later in the week. Near-term price action will be dictated by prevailing trends and any unexpected geopolitical developments. This low-activity environment favors range-bound strategies, with breakout traders advised to wait for stronger directional catalysts before committing to positions.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Last week's price action delivered clear directional signals across major forex pairs, with AUD/USD showing notable strength while GBP/USD exhibited persistent weakness. The Australian dollar's rally reflects improved risk appetite and supportive commodity dynamics, with AUD/USD pushing higher against multiple counterparts including EUR/AUD and AUD/CHF. The British pound, by contrast, has been under sustained selling pressure against the greenback, suggesting deteriorating sentiment around UK economic fundamentals or relative monetary policy expectations. Gold is also presenting a notable technical setup that traders are monitoring for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. The divergence between AUD strength and GBP weakness offers cross-pair opportunities, particularly in GBP/AUD. Traders should focus on upcoming Australian employment data and UK GDP releases as potential catalysts. Near-term, AUD/USD bulls will look for continuation above recent resistance levels, while GBP/USD bears may target a test of lower support zones. Risk management remains critical given the current geopolitical backdrop influencing broader market volatility.
AUDUSD
GBPUSD
EURAUD
AUDCHF
GBPAUD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical risk has escalated sharply as Iran has returned to a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reversing a brief period of eased tensions that lasted less than two weeks. The strait is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, with roughly 20% of global crude supply transiting through it daily. The renewed blockade raises serious questions about whether the initial reopening was a strategic maneuver by Tehran. Crude oil prices are expected to surge on the news, directly impacting oil-correlated currency pairs. USD/CAD faces potential downside pressure as higher oil prices typically support the Canadian dollar, while commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and NOK may also benefit. Conversely, oil-importing nations' currencies like JPY and EUR could weaken on deteriorating terms of trade. Safe-haven flows are likely to support USD and CHF in the near term. Traders should brace for elevated volatility across energy-sensitive pairs and monitor any diplomatic developments that could alter the trajectory of this crisis.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is opening the week with safe-haven demand as US-Iran military tensions intensify, with both sides exchanging strikes over the weekend despite earlier diplomatic overtures. President Trump confirmed the ceasefire is over while suggesting talks may continue, creating a contradictory geopolitical backdrop. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments—has sent crude oil prices surging approximately 4%, adding inflationary pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve's rate path. Gold, typically a safe-haven beneficiary, has paradoxically slid over 1%, likely due to margin calls and liquidity needs amid broader equity selloffs. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are key pairs to monitor as traders rotate into traditional safe havens. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are expected to strengthen against risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD. Traders should watch for further escalation headlines, as any expansion of the conflict zone could trigger sharp moves across forex markets, particularly in oil-correlated pairs like USD/CAD.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asia-Pacific forex markets are under significant pressure as escalating US-Iran hostilities dominate risk sentiment. The US launched dozens of new strikes against Iranian targets including attack drones, while Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles targeting Jordan, broadening the conflict's geographic scope. South Korean equities sank over 5% led by profit-taking in SK Hynix, dragging the Korean won lower, while the Nikkei also fell sharply, pressuring USD/JPY toward yen strength. Oil prices jumped approximately 4% on Strait of Hormuz closure fears, bolstering commodity currencies like CAD but weighing on oil-importing nations' currencies including JPY, KRW, and INR. Gold declined over 1% despite the risk-off environment, likely reflecting position liquidation. On the data front, Goldman Sachs forecasts US core CPI to ease to 2.8% year-on-year in June, potentially offering the Fed room for dovish signaling. China's independent teapot refiners are adjusting procurement strategies amid supply disruptions. Traders should anticipate elevated volatility across all major pairs with particular focus on USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDKRW
EURUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
