US June import prices +0.3% vs -0.7% expectedUS housing starts for June 1.427 million versus 1.310 million estimate.US June industrial production +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedWhy Kimi K3 is adding to the market worriesUS July prelim UMich consumer sentiment 54.4 vs 51.0 expectedMeta weighs multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure deal with AnthropicBaker Hughes oil rig count up 7 to 452Iran targeted a ship trying to pass through Hormuz - TasnimTrump says he will add to Canadian tariffs due to wildfire...
USD
GBP
CAD
Source: Finnhub
Trump now says he is going to war against smoke from Canada:We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air, the quality of which is dangerous, and totally unacceptable! I will call the Prime Minister during the day to find out what they are going to do about it. The cost is incalculable!
USD
CAD
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices have surged to $81.30, up $2.36 on the session, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate sharply following reports that Iran targeted a vessel attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The incident, reported by Tasnim news agency, signals no de-escalation in the region's security situation, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions through one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints. The development has significant forex implications, particularly for commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK, while safe-haven flows could benefit JPY and CHF. Analysts note that even with oil at $80, fuel prices are likely to remain elevated as the deflationary benefits from the May-July decline in crude never reached consumers, with refinery margins capturing the entirety of the drop. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for potential CAD strength on rising oil prices, while risk-sensitive pairs may face headwinds. Further escalation could push crude toward the $85 resistance level, amplifying forex market volatility.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The Baker Hughes weekly rig count showed US oil rigs increasing by 7 to 452, while gas rigs held steady at 126, bringing the total rig count to 588. Year-over-year, oil rigs are up from 422 and gas rigs have risen from 117, reflecting a steady recovery in US drilling activity amid elevated crude prices. WTI crude oil is trading at $81.30, up $2.36 on the day, with intraday highs reaching $81.54. The rising rig count suggests producers are responding to sustained higher prices by expanding output, which could eventually temper supply-driven price gains. For forex markets, the data supports continued strength in commodity-linked currencies, particularly CAD, as higher oil prices boost Canada's trade balance. USD/CAD traders should watch for a potential move lower if crude sustains gains above $81. Near-term resistance in crude sits at the session high of $81.54, with support established around the $77.90 level seen earlier in the week.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
WTI crude oil futures have spent the week range-bound between $77.90 support and $81.25 resistance, with price action resembling a pinball between well-defined technical levels. The week began with a dip to the rising 100-hour moving average near $77.55, where buyers successfully defended support and triggered a sharp rally. Sellers have consistently capped advances near $81.25, creating a compression pattern that typically precedes a significant breakout. The tight range reflects competing forces: geopolitical risk premiums from Middle East tensions supporting the downside, while demand uncertainty and rising US rig counts limit upside momentum. For forex traders, the directional resolution in crude will have direct implications for USD/CAD and other commodity-linked pairs. A break above $81.25 could accelerate toward $83-$85 and strengthen CAD, while a loss of $77.55 (100-hour MA) would signal bearish momentum targeting $75. Traders are advised to wait for a confirmed breakout before establishing directional positions in oil-correlated forex pairs.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices are climbing as reports emerge that the United States is sending additional military aircraft to Israel ahead of a possible escalation against Iran. Sources indicate options under consideration include strikes on Iranian infrastructure, such as power plants, and further attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. While no final decision has been made, reports suggest action could come within days. The deliberate leak of these plans raises questions about strategic messaging, potentially aimed at deterring Iranian aggression or preparing markets for escalation. Oil's rally on the news underscores the persistent geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices, with direct consequences for forex markets. Safe-haven currencies including JPY and CHF are likely to see increased demand, while risk-sensitive pairs could face selling pressure. USD/CAD may benefit from dual dynamics of dollar safe-haven flows and CAD strength from rising oil. Traders should maintain heightened awareness of headline risk, as any confirmed military action would likely trigger sharp moves across energy and forex markets.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CHF has experienced sharp two-way volatility this week, surging to a high of 0.8151 above the June high of 0.81392 during Tuesday's Asian-Pacific session before reversing sharply lower. Sellers drove the pair back toward the well-established swing support zone between 0.8060 and 0.80699, creating a wide-ranging but ultimately indecisive weekly candle. The initial break above the June high attracted momentum buyers, but the rapid reversal suggests significant sell interest at elevated levels and potential exhaustion of the bullish move. The 0.8060-0.80699 support zone remains the critical level to watch; a sustained break below would shift near-term bias bearish and open a path toward the 0.8000 psychological level. Conversely, reclaiming the 0.8139-0.8151 resistance zone would confirm renewed bullish momentum. Swiss franc dynamics are being influenced by safe-haven demand amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, which could favor CHF strength. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as escalation could accelerate moves toward USD/CHF support levels.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are extending losses during Thursday's session as a broad risk-off wave sweeps across global markets, driving safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar. Both pairs, widely regarded as risk-sensitive barometers, are under heavy selling pressure as equity markets sell off amid concerns over AI trade valuations and escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions. The deterioration in investor sentiment has amplified dollar buying, with technical breakdowns reinforcing the bearish momentum. AUD/USD has slipped below recent support levels, while NZD/USD faces similar downside pressure as traders flee higher-yielding currencies. The stronger-than-expected U.S. import price data (+0.3% vs. -0.7% expected) has further bolstered the dollar by suggesting persistent inflationary pressures, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders should monitor key support zones on both pairs, as sustained risk aversion could accelerate further declines. Any recovery in global equity sentiment would be needed to stabilize these commodity-linked currencies.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
U.S. June import prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, dramatically beating expectations of a -0.7% decline, signaling that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent despite recent softer CPI and PPI readings. The year-over-year import price increase of 7.1% marked the highest level since August 2022, a figure that could complicate the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting timeline. Export prices declined 0.6% versus the -0.4% consensus, while the prior month's import figure of +1.9% underscored continued price momentum. Crude oil prices rallied in tandem, with Brent climbing to $86.20 and WTI reaching $81, adding further upward pressure to import costs. The data divergence from recent CPI and PPI prints suggests the disinflationary narrative may be premature, potentially supporting the dollar across major pairs. Forex traders should closely watch upcoming Fed commentary for any shift in tone regarding inflation persistence, as this data point strengthens the case for a higher-for-longer rate environment.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
U.S. housing starts for June surged to 1.427 million annualized, significantly exceeding the 1.310 million consensus estimate and marking a sharp rebound from the revised May reading of 1.199 million (initially reported at 1.177 million). Completions also rose 1.5% compared with June 2025, indicating sustained momentum in the construction sector. The stronger-than-expected data paints a picture of economic resilience, potentially reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts and providing underlying support for the U.S. dollar. A robust housing sector suggests consumer confidence and economic activity remain firm despite elevated borrowing costs. For forex markets, the data adds to a string of upside surprises in U.S. economic releases this session, bolstering the dollar's position against risk-sensitive and lower-yielding currencies. Traders should note that persistent housing strength could keep the Fed hawkish, supporting dollar longs in the near term, particularly against pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The U.S. dollar is trading with a mixed bias at the start of the North American session on Thursday, gaining ground against the EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD while losing ground versus the JPY, CHF, and CAD. The dollar's strongest performance is against the British pound and Australian dollar, reflecting the broad risk-off environment that is pressuring higher-beta currencies. Meanwhile, the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc are outperforming the greenback, suggesting that risk aversion is the dominant theme rather than outright dollar strength. The Canadian dollar's resilience against the USD may be linked to elevated crude oil prices, with Brent trading near $86.20. Stronger-than-expected U.S. import prices and housing starts data released during the session are providing fundamental support for the dollar. Traders should monitor whether the risk-off tone intensifies during the New York session, as this could further benefit JPY and CHF crosses while pressuring AUD and NZD pairs lower.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Global market sentiment has deteriorated sharply on Thursday as a convergence of geopolitical and sector-specific risks drives investors toward safe-haven assets. Renewed fears over the global AI trade and stretched semiconductor valuations have triggered a broad equity selloff, while escalating Middle East tensions and the potential closure of Red Sea shipping lanes have amplified risk aversion. Crude oil prices have surged on supply disruption fears, with Brent climbing toward $86.20, adding inflationary concerns that could influence central bank rate decisions. In forex markets, the risk-off environment is benefiting traditional safe havens including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, while commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars are under significant pressure. Interest rate expectations are also shifting, as higher energy costs and persistent inflation could delay monetary easing cycles globally. Forex traders should remain vigilant for further escalation in Red Sea tensions, as any disruption to global trade routes could sustain elevated volatility across currency markets.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Risk-off sentiment dominated European markets as geopolitical tensions and tech sector weakness weighed heavily on risk currencies. CHF emerged as the session's top performer, benefiting from safe-haven flows, while AUD and GBP lagged. WTI crude surged 2.6% to $81.00 after Iran's IRGC reaffirmed that no oil or gas would pass through the Strait of Hormuz while US attacks continue, raising supply disruption fears. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.5% as tech selling pressure persisted into the week's final stretch. The Bank of Japan is reportedly set to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting according to Kyodo, providing some stability for JPY crosses. Euro area inflation was confirmed at 2.8% y/y in June, down from 3.2% prior, with core CPI easing to 2.4%. Interest rate expectations have shifted notably following this week's events. Traders should monitor oil price developments and risk sentiment heading into next week, as escalating Middle East tensions could further support safe-haven currencies like CHF and JPY at the expense of commodity-linked and risk-sensitive pairs.
USDCHF
AUDUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
EURJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Eurozone final June CPI data confirmed headline inflation at 2.8% year-over-year, matching the preliminary reading and marking a notable decline from the prior 3.2%. Core CPI was also confirmed at 2.4% y/y, down from the previous 2.6%, signaling a broad-based cooling in price pressures across the currency bloc. The monthly headline inflation figure recorded a negative reading, driven largely by a significant drop in energy price inflation. The data reinforces the European Central Bank's disinflationary narrative and supports expectations for potential further rate adjustments later in the year. With no revisions to the preliminary estimates, the report had limited immediate impact on EUR/USD, though the disinflationary trend could weigh on the euro over the medium term if markets price in more aggressive ECB easing. Traders should watch for upcoming ECB commentary and compare the Eurozone inflation trajectory with US price data to gauge relative monetary policy divergence, which remains a key driver for EUR/USD directional bias in the weeks ahead.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range during the European session as markets await the release of the final Eurozone CPI report for June. However, the data is widely expected to confirm preliminary readings, leaving little room for a market-moving surprise. The European Central Bank has already factored in the current inflation trajectory into its policy stance, making any significant deviation from expectations unlikely to alter the rate path. With no other major economic releases scheduled during the European session, trading volumes may remain subdued and price action confined to established ranges. Traders should note that the lack of catalysts during this session could lead to consolidation around current levels. Near-term support and resistance levels will be dictated by broader macro themes, including US data releases later in the day. Market participants are advised to monitor any revisions in the CPI components, as unexpected shifts in core inflation could briefly impact EUR crosses, though the overall sentiment remains neutral heading into the session.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY remains largely unchanged following remarks from Japan's Finance Minister Katayama, who reiterated that specific monetary policy decisions are the Bank of Japan's domain. The comments, which echo longstanding government rhetoric, provided no fresh catalyst for yen traders. Katayama emphasized the government's commitment to avoiding market misunderstandings regarding fiscal and monetary policy coordination, while pledging to steadily reduce Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio. He also noted that rate movements are ultimately determined by market forces. The lack of new policy signals means USD/JPY is likely to continue trading within its recent range, with direction dependent on upcoming US economic data and BOJ policy expectations. Traders should watch for any shifts in BOJ rate hike pricing, as that remains the primary driver for yen pairs. Near-term, the pair may find support around key technical levels while resistance remains tied to US Treasury yield movements. The reiteration of policy independence suggests no imminent government pressure on the BOJ to adjust its stance, keeping the policy divergence narrative intact for now.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has reaffirmed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, declaring that no oil or gas shipments will transit the critical chokepoint while US military strikes continue. Vessel traffic through the strait has dropped significantly over the past week, threatening roughly 20% of global oil supply flows and sending crude prices sharply higher. The escalation is driving significant moves across oil-sensitive forex pairs, with USD/CAD facing upward pressure on the Canadian dollar's correlation with crude, while USD/INR is climbing as India — a major oil importer — faces rising import costs. Safe-haven flows are boosting JPY and CHF demand against risk currencies. The disruption represents the most severe threat to global energy supply chains in years, with Brent crude on pace for its biggest weekly gain since April. Traders should monitor further military developments closely, as any escalation or de-escalation could trigger violent moves in commodity-linked and emerging market currencies. Risk aversion is likely to persist until shipping lanes reopen.
USDCAD
USDINR
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asian markets saw intense risk-off trading as the Nikkei plunged 4.25% and Nasdaq futures fell 1%, driving broad safe-haven demand across JPY and CHF pairs. USD/JPY is under pressure from yen strength as investors flee risk assets amid widening US-Iran military strikes across the Gulf and Iraq. The Indian rupee is nearing record lows against the dollar despite active RBI intervention, with surging oil prices and elevated risk aversion compounding pressure on the currency. China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued reassurances that its FX market remains stable and resilient, though USD/CNY remains sensitive to Trump's renewed election-related claims about China, which risk destabilizing the fragile trade truce ahead of a planned Xi meeting. Oil edged higher as the conflict widened, marking its trajectory for the largest weekly gain since April. Near-term, traders should watch for further escalation in Gulf strikes and any RBI policy response. Key pairs to monitor include USD/JPY support near recent lows and USD/INR resistance at the record high.
USDJPY
USDINR
USDCNH
USDCHF
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/SGD faces upward pressure as Singapore's June non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 20.7% year-on-year, falling short of market expectations and decelerating sharply from May's two-decade high. The miss was primarily driven by weakness in non-electronics exports, even as electronics shipments to key markets like Taiwan and the US remained robust, supported by ongoing AI-related demand. The data suggests the extraordinary AI-driven electronics export boom that fueled SGD strength in recent months may be beginning to normalize. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which manages monetary policy through exchange rate bands rather than interest rates, could face reduced justification for maintaining a tight SGD policy stance if export momentum continues to fade. For traders, the weaker-than-expected trade data introduces modest downside risk for the Singapore dollar. Near-term, USD/SGD may find support from this data miss, particularly if upcoming regional trade figures confirm a broader slowdown in Asian export demand. Traders should monitor upcoming MAS commentary and further electronics export trends for directional cues on the pair.
USDSGD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
