Secretary of War Hegseth needs more money for warCrude oil futures settle at $84.91Tension in the middle east intensifiesApple Reinvents the upgrade cycle. Stock price moves higherEuropean Stocks finish strong; Wall Street builds on the momentumTrump meets with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in the White HouseCanada Carney: Latest tariff threat are a violation of USMCAUSTR Greer: Canada is giving other countries better trade dealsPres.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CHF
AUD
CAD
NZD
Source: Finnhub
Secretary of War Hegseth needs more money for warCrude oil futures settle at $84.91Tension in the middle east intensifiesApple Reinvents the upgrade cycle. Stock price moves higherEuropean Stocks finish strong; Wall Street builds on the momentumTrump meets with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in the White HouseCanada Carney: Latest tariff threat are a violation of USMCAUSTR Greer: Canada is giving other countries better trade dealsPres.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CHF
AUD
CAD
NZD
Source: Finnhub
Recent headline news that of the Middle East includes:Iranian Army says shut down a one-way attack drone in the country's northwest.Reports from unofficial sources in Iraq said that three American helicopters from troops in the Al-Badaiya Desert in Iraq. About an hour later, the helicopters took off and flew toward Jordan.IDF says Lebanese Army personnel breached pilot area in Lebanon and Israel fired warning shots into the air. The Lebanese president is meeting with Pres.
USD
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD retreated during early trading but found consistent buying interest near its rising 100-hour moving average, a key technical support level that has now been tested and held across two consecutive sessions. The pair had previously reached an upside technical target before sellers emerged, pushing prices lower toward this dynamic support zone. The repeated defense of the 100-hour MA is a notable bullish signal, suggesting that dip-buyers remain active and the broader uptrend remains intact. The fact that this level attracted buyers during both the current session and yesterday's Asia-Pacific session reinforces its significance as a near-term floor. Traders should monitor whether the pair can sustain above this moving average on subsequent tests, as a decisive break below would shift the short-term bias to bearish and potentially open the door for deeper corrective moves. Conversely, holding above the 100-hour MA keeps the path of least resistance to the upside, with the recent highs serving as the next resistance target.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The Canadian dollar faces renewed uncertainty after Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly stated that the Trump administration's latest tariff threats violate the spirit of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The escalating trade rhetoric between the US and Canada adds fresh geopolitical risk to USD/CAD price action, with the pair sensitive to any deterioration in bilateral trade relations. However, Carney tempered the confrontation by revealing that he spoke directly with President Trump, and both leaders agreed to intensify trade negotiations over the coming weeks before the proposed tariffs take effect. This diplomatic channel offers a potential pathway to de-escalation, which may limit immediate downside pressure on the loonie. Traders should watch for headlines from these intensified negotiations as key catalysts for CAD direction. Near-term, the tariff uncertainty is likely to keep USD/CAD bid, though a resolution or delay in tariff implementation could trigger a sharp reversal in favor of the Canadian dollar.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The broader U.S. stock indices are rallying on Monday, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading the charge, up approximately 280 points to 25,783. The S&P 500 is also tracking higher as risk appetite returns to the market. The NASDAQ's rebound is extending but now approaching a critical technical crossroads that could determine whether bulls maintain control or face rejection. The rally has implications for USD-correlated assets, as rising equity markets typically reflect improved risk sentiment, potentially weighing on safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc while supporting risk-sensitive pairs. Traders should monitor whether the NASDAQ can clear overhead resistance convincingly, as failure at these levels could trigger a reversal and shift sentiment back toward defensive positioning. The equity strength is occurring alongside rising Treasury yields, creating a complex backdrop for forex markets. Near-term, the risk-on tone favors commodity currencies like AUD and CAD against traditional safe havens. Traders should watch for follow-through in the next session to confirm directional bias.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY has surged to a fresh 40-year high of 162.89, driven by persistent demand for the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields that continue to widen the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Buyers remain firmly in control of the near-term trend, with yesterday's pullback finding strong support at an upward-sloping trendline before rebounding into the swing area between 162.399 and 162.508. This zone has now been established as a key near-term support level. The relentless yen weakness underscores the divergence in monetary policy, with the BOJ maintaining its ultra-accommodative stance while U.S. yields push higher. Traders should be alert to potential verbal or direct intervention from Japanese authorities, which has historically occurred near these extreme levels. On the upside, there is limited historical resistance given the multi-decade highs, making psychological levels the primary reference points. A sustained break above 163.00 could accelerate the move, while a drop below 162.399 would signal near-term exhaustion.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD is pushing to new session highs, testing the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.40858 — a level that has taken on significant technical importance after previously acting as the catalyst for the pair's latest downside correction. The pair's advance brings it to a critical inflection point where buyers must demonstrate conviction to break above this dynamic resistance level. A sustained move above the 200-hour MA would signal a shift in short-term momentum from bearish to bullish, potentially opening the door for further upside toward the next resistance zones. Conversely, rejection at this level would reinforce the broader corrective pattern and could send the pair back toward recent lows. The move higher comes amid broader U.S. dollar strength and remarks from USTR Greer regarding Canadian trade practices, which may be adding marginal pressure on the Canadian dollar. Traders should closely monitor the price action around 1.40858, as a decisive break or rejection will likely set the near-term directional tone for the pair.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has publicly criticized Canada for offering other countries more favorable trade deals than the United States, escalating trade tensions between the two North American partners. Greer also cited concerns over Airbus receiving unfair government loans that put Boeing at a competitive disadvantage, broadening the scope of U.S. trade grievances beyond just Canada. These comments add to an already strained trade relationship and could weigh on the Canadian dollar if markets perceive an increased risk of retaliatory tariffs or trade barriers. The remarks come at a sensitive time for USD/CAD, which is already testing key technical resistance levels. For forex traders, the rhetoric introduces additional political risk premium into CAD-related pairs, particularly USD/CAD and CAD/JPY. Any formal trade actions following these statements could significantly impact Canadian economic outlook and Bank of Canada policy expectations. Traders should monitor for further escalation or conciliatory responses from Canadian officials, as the tone of negotiations will be critical for near-term CAD direction.
USDCAD
CADJPY
EURCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices have jumped approximately $1.63 to $84.15 per barrel after reports from the Jerusalem Post indicate that President Trump has rejected a proposed 10-day ceasefire with Iran. The rejection reverses the brief relief that markets experienced yesterday when initial ceasefire reports pushed oil prices below the 100-hour moving average before a sharp rebound closed the day higher. The escalation in geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran — a major oil producer — is reinforcing risk premiums in energy markets and has broad implications for forex. Oil-sensitive currencies such as the Canadian dollar (CAD), Norwegian krone (NOK), and Russian ruble stand to benefit from elevated crude prices, while oil-importing nations like Japan could see further yen weakness. The move also has inflationary implications, as sustained higher oil prices feed into consumer price indices globally, potentially complicating central bank rate-cut timelines. Key technical support for crude sits at the 100-hour MA, while the geopolitical backdrop suggests upside risk remains dominant. Forex traders should monitor Middle East developments closely for potential spillover into currency markets.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar held steady as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined an optimistic economic outlook in a Fox Business Network interview, asserting that 3% GDP growth is "not unreasonable" for the United States. Bessent covered a wide range of topics including Iran, China, artificial intelligence, and broader US economic policy. Notably, he highlighted a substantial increase in purchases of Iranian oil arrangements involving China, a development that carries implications for both energy markets and geopolitical risk sentiment. The growth target of 3% is ambitious relative to recent trends and suggests the administration remains committed to pro-growth fiscal policy, which could be supportive for the dollar if accompanied by credible policy measures. For forex traders, Bessent's comments reinforce a narrative of US economic exceptionalism that has underpinned dollar strength. However, the lack of specific policy details limits the immediate market impact. Traders should monitor upcoming GDP data and fiscal policy announcements to assess whether the 3% growth target gains credibility.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar traded mixed to little changed against the three major currency pairs — EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD — during Monday's session, with price action largely driven by technical levels rather than fresh fundamental catalysts. Technical analysis highlights specific support and resistance zones that are defining the trading bias and risk parameters for each pair. For EUR/USD, the session saw limited directional conviction, while USD/JPY and GBP/USD similarly remained range-bound within their respective technical frameworks. The consolidation pattern across multiple major pairs suggests the market is awaiting a catalyst to establish a clearer directional move. Traders are advised to identify the key technical levels — including bias, risk, and target zones — for each pair to manage positions effectively during this low-conviction environment. A breakout from current ranges in any of the three majors could set the tone for broader dollar direction in the sessions ahead.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The British pound found support during the European session after UK employment data surprised to the upside, with the unemployment rate holding steady in May even as payrolls declined again in June. The better-than-expected labor market figures came alongside new PM Burnham's announcement of a VAT cut on energy bills, his first major policy move which already faces scrutiny. On the European front, the German ZEW survey showed an improvement in recovery sentiment for July, while Eurozone banks continued to tighten lending standards amid ongoing geopolitical concerns. Middle East tensions remained a dominant theme, with Iran stating that any decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz depends on security considerations — a factor keeping oil prices elevated and risk sentiment fragile. FX option expiries at the 10am New York cut also influenced intraday flows. For traders, GBP pairs may benefit from the jobs beat in the near term, but persistent geopolitical risk and questions around UK fiscal policy present headwinds that could cap gains.
GBPUSD
EURUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
July current conditions -77.6 vs -77.8 expectedPrior -81.0July outlook 26.3 vs 17.5 expectedPrior 10.5Even with a slight rebound, current conditions remain subdued and that is reflective of the dampened economic mood as a result of the Middle East conflict. As tensions escalate once again, that is just making for a tough time for German firms. The good news at least is that the outlook is seen picking up going into July.
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD faces downside pressure as the ECB's Bank Lending Survey reveals euro area banks continued tightening credit standards in Q2 2026, signaling deteriorating economic conditions across the bloc. Banks reported moderate tightening for corporate loans, housing loans, and consumer credit, driven by weaker risk tolerance and elevated perceived credit risks. Geopolitical tensions and energy-related risks were cited as key factors weighing on credit conditions. The tightening of lending standards typically constrains economic growth by reducing credit availability to businesses and households, which could weigh on the euro over the medium term. For the ECB, this data may reinforce expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy stance, as restrictive credit conditions effectively do some of the central bank's tightening work. Traders should monitor upcoming Eurozone PMI data and ECB commentary for further directional cues. Near-term, the combination of tighter credit and geopolitical headwinds creates a bearish backdrop for EUR crosses, with particular attention on whether lending conditions deteriorate further in Q3.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD faces uncertainty as newly installed UK Prime Minister Burnham encounters immediate political turbulence over his first major policy announcement — a VAT cut on energy bills aimed at reducing household costs. The policy carries an estimated fiscal cost of approximately £850 million, raising questions about the government's fiscal credibility at a critical juncture. The speed at which the announcement has drawn criticism in Westminster suggests potential instability in the new government's ability to execute its economic agenda. For sterling traders, political risk premiums may begin to build if the new administration struggles to maintain coherent fiscal messaging. The Bank of England will be watching closely, as energy bill relief could marginally reduce headline inflation but the fiscal cost adds to borrowing concerns. Near-term GBP direction will depend on whether Burnham can stabilize the narrative around this policy. Traders should watch gilt yields for signs of fiscal confidence erosion, which would translate into direct GBP pressure across major and cross pairs.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices are surging as the Strait of Hormuz has reverted to a de facto closure following renewed US-Iran military strikes, severely disrupting global energy supply routes. Iran stated that any decision to reopen the critical waterway depends on security considerations, while the US has reimposed its naval blockade, effectively resetting the prior ceasefire agreement. Ship-tracking data confirms traffic through the strait has collapsed to minimal levels. The strait handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, making this closure a significant supply shock. USD/CAD is directly impacted, with the Canadian dollar likely to benefit from elevated crude prices given Canada's status as a major oil exporter. Conversely, JPY and EUR may face headwinds as energy-importing economies absorb higher costs. Safe-haven flows into the US dollar, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen could intensify if the conflict escalates further. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments and crude oil price action, as any de-escalation signals would sharply reverse current positioning across commodity-linked and safe-haven currencies.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Major forex pairs are trading in narrow ranges as markets digest a relatively soft UK employment report and position ahead of the German ZEW economic sentiment index. The UK data showed the ILO unemployment rate holding at 4.9%, slightly better than the 5.0% expected, while employment change surprised to the upside at 147k versus 80k forecast. However, average weekly earnings cooled to 4.3% from 4.4%, a modestly dovish signal for the Bank of England. The muted market reaction reflects limited implications for near-term BoE rate expectations. Attention now shifts to the German ZEW survey, expected at 15.3 versus 10.5 prior, which could provide directional impetus for EUR/USD if it surprises significantly. In the US session, traders will monitor Fed commentary and broader risk sentiment. EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain range-bound as neither dataset alone is likely to trigger a breakout. Positioning ahead of mid-week events suggests consolidation will persist until a clearer catalyst emerges from central bank signals or geopolitical developments.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD showed limited reaction following the release of UK labour market data for May, which painted a mixed picture for the Bank of England's policy outlook. The ILO unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, beating the 5.0% consensus, while employment change surged to 147k versus the 80k expected, suggesting underlying resilience in the jobs market. However, average weekly earnings growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 4.4%, slightly below the 4.5% forecast, providing the BoE with welcome evidence that wage-driven inflationary pressures are easing. Excluding bonuses, earnings growth held flat at 3.4%. June payrolls declined by 4k, a modest deterioration from the prior revised reading of +3k. The ONS cautioned that data quality issues persist with the Labour Force Survey due to the delayed transition, warranting caution in interpretation. For traders, the softer wage component marginally increases the probability of BoE rate action but is insufficient alone to shift expectations materially. Near-term GBP direction will likely be driven by upcoming inflation data and broader risk sentiment.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar remains supported amid escalating US-Iran military tensions, with rising oil prices and Treasury yields providing dual tailwinds for the greenback heading into the new trading week. Brent crude continues to trade near one-month highs as the conflict enters its 10th consecutive night of exchanges, with Goldman Sachs warning that prices could surge above $120/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz faces sustained disruption. President Trump has warned that Iran will pay 'many times over' for the killing of American soldiers, keeping risk sentiment fragile across global markets. Safe-haven flows are bolstering the dollar and Japanese yen, while commodity-linked currencies face mixed dynamics—CAD potentially benefiting from oil strength while risk-sensitive AUD and NZD face headwinds. Elevated oil prices also feed into inflation expectations, pushing Treasury yields higher and reinforcing hawkish Fed pricing. Traders should monitor developments closely, as any escalation toward full-scale war or a ceasefire decision from Trump could trigger sharp volatility across major pairs, particularly USD/JPY and oil-sensitive crosses.
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Asia-Pacific currencies are under pressure as geopolitical risk dominates early-week trading, with Trump reportedly nearing a pivotal decision between a new Iran ceasefire and full-scale war. The RBNZ's own inflation model for Q2 2026 held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from Q1, suggesting the central bank may maintain its current policy stance and limiting near-term NZD upside. USD/CNY was fixed by the PBOC at 6.7917, with reports of China's national team intervening to stabilize markets amid the geopolitical uncertainty. South Korea's President Lee flagged concerns over won weakness and rising risks from leveraged financial products, adding to regional currency pressures. Goldman Sachs' warning that Brent could breach $120/bbl if Hormuz shipping lanes remain disrupted is intensifying risk-off positioning across the region. Israel's intelligence suggesting Iran has relocated nuclear centrifuges into hardened mountain facilities adds another layer of escalation risk. Traders should watch for Trump's imminent decision as the primary volatility catalyst, with safe-haven USD and JPY likely to benefit from further escalation while risk-sensitive Asia-Pacific currencies could face significant selling pressure.
NZDUSD
USDCNY
USDKRW
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD has edged higher as the Canadian dollar softened modestly following reports that Canadian Prime Minister Carney expressed readiness to intensify trade negotiations with Washington after the imposition of new US tariffs. The loonie's weakness extends a broader period of depreciation tied to the ongoing tariff standoff between Canada and the United States. Carney's measured diplomatic tone, emphasizing continued willingness to negotiate rather than pursue immediate retaliatory measures, has provided a degree of stability and may limit further CAD downside in the near term. However, markets remain on alert for any indication that Ottawa could match the new US duties, as it has done with previous American trade measures — a move that could reignite volatility in the pair. The trade tensions inject uncertainty into the Canadian economic outlook, potentially influencing Bank of Canada policy considerations. Traders should monitor upcoming trade policy announcements closely, as escalation or de-escalation will likely dictate USD/CAD direction. Key resistance and support levels will be tested depending on the outcome of intensified negotiations.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
