I'll get a post up with a preview of the Japanese inflation data separately. The Tokyo area data for June indicated rising underlying inflation pressure:Tokyo core-core CPI rose to 1.9% in June as energy-driven inflation began spreading to food and other goods, keeping a July BOJ hike firmly in view. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Source: Finnhub
The ECB left all three key interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, while President Christine Lagarde emphasized that future policy decisions will remain firmly data dependent.
USD
EUR
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD faces renewed downside pressure as escalating trade tensions between the United States and European Union weigh on sentiment. USTR Greer publicly condemned the EU's decision to fine Google, stating that 'the EU continues to target the most competitive U.S. companies,' signaling a potential retaliatory response from Washington. The rhetoric introduces significant uncertainty into transatlantic trade relations, which could lead to broader tariff escalation or regulatory retaliation affecting European exports. The euro is vulnerable to further selling pressure as traders price in the risk of deteriorating US-EU economic cooperation. Markets are closely watching for any formal trade policy responses from the White House, which could amplify volatility in EUR/USD. Near-term support sits around the 1.1300 psychological level, with resistance near 1.1400. Traders should monitor upcoming trade policy announcements and EU economic data for directional cues. A further deterioration in trade rhetoric could push EUR/USD toward lower support zones as risk sentiment sours for the single currency.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Safe-haven currencies and commodities are seeing significant demand as Middle East tensions escalate sharply. The US Senate blocked a resolution to curb Trump's Iran war powers, while reports of powerful explosions on Kuwait's Bubiyan Island heightened fears of broader regional conflict. USD/JPY dynamics are being shaped by competing forces: dollar strength from risk aversion versus yen safe-haven demand. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are attracting flows as traders seek safety, while oil prices surge on supply disruption fears, supporting commodity-linked currencies like CAD but pressuring oil-importing economies. Gold is also benefiting from the geopolitical uncertainty. USD/CHF faces downward pressure as the franc strengthens. Traders should watch for further military developments and crude oil price action, as sustained escalation could drive significant volatility across forex markets. Key pairs to monitor include USD/JPY near the 155.00 level and EUR/CHF, which may see further declines if risk-off sentiment intensifies throughout the session.
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Risk-off sentiment is intensifying across forex markets after President Trump told Axios he is 'close to making a decision' on launching a military strike against Iran that would exceed the scope of previous operations. The statement marks a significant escalation in geopolitical risk, driving sharp moves in safe-haven assets. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are strengthening against the dollar and risk-sensitive currencies as traders rapidly de-risk portfolios. USD/JPY is under pressure from aggressive yen buying, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD face selling pressure as risk appetite collapses. Oil prices are spiking on fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, adding inflationary concerns that complicate central bank policy outlooks. Gold has surged past key resistance levels on haven demand. Traders should expect elevated volatility and widened spreads across major and cross pairs. Near-term direction will depend heavily on whether military action materializes. Position sizing and risk management are critical in this environment.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The Swiss franc is strengthening broadly as Middle East geopolitical risks continue to mount, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps signaling it will no longer tolerate what it calls 'deceptive ceasefires' used by the US to regroup militarily. USD/CHF is declining as traders rotate into traditional safe-haven currencies amid fears of sustained regional conflict. The IRGC's hardened rhetoric suggests Tehran is preparing for prolonged confrontation, reducing the probability of near-term diplomatic resolution. This development compounds existing risk-off flows triggered by earlier reports of explosions in Kuwait and Trump's consideration of expanded military operations. EUR/CHF is also under pressure as the franc outperforms the euro. Oil markets remain elevated on supply disruption fears, adding a stagflationary dimension to the macro outlook. Traders should closely monitor developments from Iranian state media and US military positioning for further directional signals. Support for USD/CHF may be tested at lower levels if escalation continues unabated throughout the week.
USDCHF
EURCHF
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD is surging as the US-Canada trade war intensifies dramatically. The White House announced 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian products including automobiles, dairy, alcoholic beverages, cement, and hockey equipment, prompting Canadian Prime Minister Carney to declare he 'will not hesitate to defend' Canada's interests. The Canadian dollar is under significant selling pressure as traders assess the economic damage of such sweeping tariffs on Canada's export-dependent economy. The tariffs threaten to disrupt major Canadian industries and could weigh on GDP growth, potentially forcing the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish stance to support the economy. USD/CAD has broken above recent resistance levels on the escalation, with the next key resistance zone near 1.4000. Retaliatory measures from Ottawa are expected and could further amplify volatility in the pair. Oil prices, a key driver of CAD, face mixed signals as geopolitical supply risks compete with demand destruction fears from trade disruptions. Traders should watch for Bank of Canada commentary and any further tariff announcements.
USDCAD
CADJPY
EURCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Treasury yields climbed, with both the 2-year and 10-year yields rising 5–6 basis points, and oil prices surged nearly 5%, the U.S. dollar strengthened broadly, with traders following the shift toward higher yields and safe-haven demand.USDJPY: The pair continues to push to fresh four-year highs and is closing in on the 164.00 level. Above that, the next major upside target comes in near 164.50, a level last seen in the 1986 swing highs.
USD
JPY
CHF
AUD
CAD
NZD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD saw limited movement as Canada's May retail sales came in at 1.0%, matching the consensus estimate and marking a significant improvement from the prior month's downwardly revised 0.4% (previously 0.5%). Retail sales ex-autos rose 1.2%, slightly missing the 1.4% forecast, while the prior month was revised down to 0.0% from 0.1%. Sales were up across all nine subsectors, led by gasoline stations and fuel vendors, reflecting the impact of elevated crude oil prices. Core retail sales, excluding gasoline, fuel vendors, and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose a solid 0.9%, indicating healthy underlying consumer demand. The broad-based gains suggest Canadian consumers remain resilient despite elevated interest rates. For USD/CAD traders, the in-line headline figure limits immediate CAD-bullish momentum, though the strong core reading provides underlying support for the loonie. Traders should monitor upcoming Bank of Canada communications for any shift in rate guidance given this evidence of sustained consumer spending.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is rallying broadly as geopolitical tensions escalate following President Trump's warning to Iran, holding them responsible for Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian ships. Crude oil is trading near $91 per barrel, fueling risk-off sentiment across global markets. The NASDAQ is down 364 points in premarket trading, reflecting the sharp deterioration in risk appetite. The intensifying Middle East conflict is driving safe-haven demand into the dollar, US Treasuries, and traditional havens like gold and the Swiss franc. Currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD are facing downward pressure as traders reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets. USD/JPY dynamics are mixed, with both currencies benefiting from haven flows. The geopolitical premium in oil prices is adding to inflationary concerns, potentially complicating central bank policy paths globally. Traders should exercise caution and monitor developments closely, as any escalation or de-escalation could trigger sharp reversals across forex and commodity markets. Elevated volatility is expected to persist in the near term.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is trading under pressure following the European Central Bank's decision on July 23, 2026 to keep all three key interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. The Governing Council highlighted that energy prices, while highly volatile, remain close to the baseline of the June Eurosystem staff projections but well above pre-Middle East conflict levels. The ECB emphasized that uncertainty remains elevated and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to materialize, suggesting the central bank is in a cautious wait-and-see mode. The decision to hold rates steady, combined with the hawkish undertone regarding unresolved energy-driven inflation risks, leaves EUR/USD in a consolidation phase. The pair faces headwinds from concurrent USD strength driven by rising US yields and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. Traders should watch for follow-up commentary from ECB President Lagarde's press conference for further guidance on the rate path. Near-term direction will depend on whether energy prices stabilize or escalate further alongside the Middle East conflict.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is advancing against major counterparts as rising US Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions drive broad-based USD strength heading into the North American session. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD are all showing significant technical developments as traders digest overnight Middle East developments. While geopolitical risks remain elevated, tentative signs of back-channel diplomacy have offered some relief, preventing a full-scale risk-off capitulation. Canada's retail sales data, with a consensus estimate of 1.0%, is a key event risk for USD/CAD. From a technical perspective, the dollar's momentum is supported by the continued move higher in yields, which is pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower while pushing USD/JPY higher. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels across these major pairs, as the combination of rising yields and geopolitical uncertainty creates conditions for sharp directional moves. The interplay between haven demand and yield differentials will be the dominant theme for the remainder of the session.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is benefiting from broad risk-off sentiment as crude oil prices continue their unabated surge amid the intensifying Middle East conflict, with prices trading near $91 per barrel. The sharp rise in energy costs is dominating global market sentiment, pressuring equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies while boosting traditional safe havens. Commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK are seeing mixed reactions — supported by higher oil revenues but weighed down by deteriorating global risk appetite. EUR/USD and GBP/USD face downward pressure as European economies are particularly vulnerable to the energy price shock given their net oil-importing status. USD/JPY remains a focal point as both currencies attract haven flows, creating a tug-of-war dynamic. The oil price surge adds a significant inflationary dimension to the global macro outlook, potentially forcing central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer than previously anticipated. Forex traders should closely track crude oil developments as a leading indicator for near-term currency direction across all major pairs.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The unabated jump in crude oil prices amidst the intensifying Middle East conflict dominated sentiment in global markets..
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Headlines:WTI crude oil hits $90 for the first time in six weeksUSD/JPY at 40-year high as Middle East tensions and hawkish Fed bets drive breakoutAlphabet earnings reaction cools an otherwise selective earnings seasonECB preview: High bar for the ECB to out-hawk the market; September hike likely if inflation surprises to the upsideECB to pause today before delivering next and final rate hike in September - DeutscheFrench business climate brightens a little more as rebound extends into...
USD
EUR
JPY
NZD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is experiencing safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran intensify significantly. US Secretary Rubio has warned that military pressure on Iran will escalate nightly until Tehran agrees to negotiate on Washington's terms. The US has conducted sustained nightly airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, while Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks against US-linked assets across the Middle East. Iran's threats to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi activity in the Red Sea are driving crude oil prices sharply higher, adding inflationary pressure to the global economy. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are seeing notable volatility as traders rotate between risk-off safe havens. The disruption to key shipping lanes threatens global trade flows, potentially weighing on commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD through supply chain uncertainty. Traders should monitor oil price action closely, as sustained elevated crude prices could alter central bank rate expectations globally. Key support for EUR/USD sits near recent lows as dollar demand persists amid the escalating conflict.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is facing complex cross-currents as UK 10-year gilt yields surged over 4 basis points to 5.08%, their highest level in more than two months. Rising gilt yields are fueling increased market expectations for a Bank of England rate hike, reflecting persistent inflationary concerns in the UK economy. While higher yields can theoretically support sterling through interest rate differentials, the sharp move in bond markets also raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and economic strain, creating a mixed backdrop for GBP. The bond market selloff mirrors broader global fixed-income weakness but is particularly pronounced in UK gilts, drawing comparisons to previous episodes of gilt market stress. EUR/GBP is also in focus as traders assess the divergent monetary policy paths between the BOE and ECB. Near-term resistance for GBP/USD remains around the 1.3000 psychological level, while support is found near recent consolidation zones. Traders should watch upcoming UK inflation data and BOE communications for further directional cues on sterling positioning.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
UK gilt yields have surged sharply, with 10-year yields climbing over 4 basis points to 5.08%, marking their highest level in more than two months. The move reflects growing market expectations for further Bank of England rate hikes as persistent inflationary pressures continue to dominate the UK economic landscape. The bond selloff has intensified focus on GBP pairs, with rising yields typically supporting sterling in the near term but also raising concerns about the broader economic impact of tighter monetary policy. Market participants are repricing BOE rate expectations higher, with swap markets now pricing in increased probability of additional tightening at upcoming meetings. For GBP/USD traders, the divergence between BOE and Federal Reserve policy paths remains a key driver. Near-term resistance for GBP/USD sits near recent highs, while support is anchored around key moving averages. Traders should monitor upcoming UK inflation and employment data closely, as further upside surprises could accelerate rate hike bets and amplify gilt market volatility, creating both opportunities and risks for sterling-denominated pairs.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is finding modest support after French business confidence climbed to 97 in July, surpassing expectations of 95 and marking a continued rebound from June's upwardly revised reading of 95. The index is now approaching the long-term average of 100, a level not seen since May 2024, signaling improving economic conditions in the eurozone's second-largest economy. The improvement was broad-based, with gains recorded across manufacturing, services, and retail trade sectors, suggesting a strengthening recovery trajectory. This data arrives ahead of today's ECB rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady while maintaining its data-dependent approach amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from the US-Iran conflict. The better-than-expected French data bolsters the case for ECB caution on further easing, which is marginally supportive for the euro. EUR/USD traders should focus on ECB President Lagarde's press conference for guidance on the policy outlook. Immediate technical resistance is positioned at recent session highs, with support near the 200-day moving average.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of today's pivotal ECB rate decision, where the central bank is unanimously expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Market attention will be squarely on ECB President Lagarde's press conference, as no updated macroeconomic projections are scheduled for this meeting. The ECB is expected to reiterate its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach while acknowledging the elevated uncertainty caused by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy prices and trade flows. Traders will parse Lagarde's language for any shifts in tone regarding inflation risks, particularly given rising oil prices from Middle East tensions, and the improving eurozone economic data highlighted by today's stronger French business confidence figures. EUR/USD has been trading within a defined range as markets await fresh policy signals. A hawkish tilt from Lagarde could push the pair toward resistance levels, while dovish commentary may trigger a move toward recent support. The decision is due in the final part of the European session, and volatility is expected to spike during the press conference.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD has surged higher following Australia's June 2026 employment report, which smashed forecasts with the biggest job gain in a year, keeping the door open for a potential RBA rate hike in August. The unemployment rate printed at 4.4%, reinforcing labor market tightness that supports a hawkish central bank stance. Simultaneously, geopolitical risk escalated sharply as the US deployed a B-1 bomber against Iran in what is being described as the biggest strike escalation yet, pushing crude oil to a six-week high. Houthi blockades of Saudi ports further tightened supply concerns. In Asia-Pacific equities, the Kospi jumped 3% and the Nikkei advanced, buoyed by Google's AI capital expenditure boost lifting semiconductor stocks. The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7906, signaling continued yuan management. Reports of an Iranian tanker on fire added to risk-off undertones in energy markets. Traders should monitor AUD/USD for sustained momentum above recent resistance levels, while elevated oil prices may weigh on JPY and support commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD in the near term.
AUDUSD
USDJPY
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
