Trump to sell faster access to his Truth Social postsGoogle Gemini launch delayed as tech falls short of goals - reportFed's Logan: Investment demand for AI is big, real and near-term inflationaryFed's Schmid: Recent inflation encouraging but too early to sayWhat United Airlines tells us about the shape of the US customerUS May business inventories +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedUS Pending Home sales for June -5.4% versus -0.5% expectedUS initial jobless claims 208K vs 217K estimateUS June retail sales...
USD
JPY
CHF
Source: Finnhub
The price of crude oil settled at $78.95, down $0.65 . Trading was relatively contained, with a low of $78.58 and a high of $80.87, as the market continued to consolidate after Tuesday's breakout to the topside.That breakout was technically significant, with the price pushing above both the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June 3 high at $78.48 and a downward-sloping trend line near the same level.
Source: Finnhub
The GBPUSD surged higher yesterday, breaking through a series of important technical hurdles and shifting the near-term bias in favor of the buyers.The rally began with the pair finding support against the rising 200-hour moving average before powering through a cluster of key moving averages near 1.3400, including the 100-hour, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.
USD
GBP
Source: Finnhub
The U.S. dollar gained broadly against major counterparts as Treasury yields moved higher, driven by a combination of supportive economic data releases. Retail sales figures came in largely in line with market expectations, providing a stable backdrop, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index delivered a sharp upside surprise, suggesting improved business confidence. Analysts attribute the manufacturing optimism partly to geopolitical tailwinds, including a Middle East ceasefire agreement and the subsequent decline in oil prices, which have eased input cost pressures for U.S. manufacturers. However, the housing sector continued to show weakness, with soft data pointing to persistent headwinds from elevated mortgage rates. The divergence between manufacturing strength and housing softness presents a mixed but net-positive picture for the greenback. Rising yields reflect markets pricing in a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, as resilient economic activity may delay rate cuts. Key pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD faced downward pressure, while USD/JPY pushed higher. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed commentary and housing data for further directional cues, with dollar support likely to hold as long as yields remain elevated.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar received a significant bullish catalyst as the July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Index surged to +41.4, far exceeding the consensus estimate of +13.0 and the prior reading of +10.3. The blowout print was driven by broad-based strength across key subcomponents: new orders jumped to 37.0 from 27.3, shipments rose sharply to 33.7 from 14.9, and unfilled orders climbed to 18.1 from 10.5. Price pressures remained elevated, with prices paid ticking up to 53.9 from 53.2 and prices received accelerating to 27.4 from 20.3, reinforcing persistent inflationary concerns. Employment indicators also improved, with the number of employees rising to 10.0 from 7.9 and the average workweek swinging to +14.0 from -6.5. However, the six-month forward-looking index declined to 34.4 from 53.2, and inventories collapsed to 0.3 from 23.0, suggesting some caution about future momentum. Traders should watch for USD strength across major pairs as this data supports a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar opened the North American session with a mixed and largely unchanged tone against major currency pairs. Most major pairs traded within a tight 0.09% range of the previous close, indicating a consolidation phase ahead of key data releases. Notable exceptions included USD/CHF and GBP/USD, which showed slightly wider deviations from flat. Technical analysis of the three primary major pairs — EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD — suggests traders are awaiting a directional catalyst before committing to positions. The narrow trading ranges reflect reduced volatility and cautious market sentiment, with participants likely positioning ahead of upcoming economic data and central bank commentary. From a technical perspective, this period of range-bound price action often precedes a significant breakout, making key support and resistance levels critical to monitor. Traders should watch for volume surges and breaks of established intraday ranges as potential signals for the session's directional bias across the dollar complex.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar held steady during the European session as markets adopted a cautious stance amid escalating US-Iran tensions, with Iran's army warning that continued US attacks could spread the conflict to new areas. US equity futures traded mixed ahead of the Wall Street open, while oil prices remained skewed to the upside, adding pressure to risk-sensitive currencies. In central bank developments, the SNB meeting minutes revealed that inflation pressures remain virtually unchanged and monetary conditions are deemed appropriate, keeping EUR/CHF relatively stable. The Bank of England's Breeden noted the UK is in a 'good place' to monitor developments, while UK GDP data showed marginal growth in May driven by a services sector bounce. The Eurozone trade deficit widened significantly to -€7.8 billion, weighing on EUR sentiment. With geopolitical risks elevated heading into the weekend, traders are likely to maintain defensive positioning, favoring safe-haven assets including the dollar and Swiss franc over higher-beta currencies.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCHF
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD and WTI crude oil are both presenting notable trade opportunities as markets navigate shifting macro dynamics. The British pound against the US dollar remains in focus as traders assess diverging monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. GBP/USD price action is being shaped by the relative strength of the US Dollar Index, with upcoming UK and US economic data likely to serve as key directional catalysts. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil futures continue to influence commodity-linked currencies and broader risk sentiment in forex markets. Oil price movements carry direct implications for pairs such as USD/CAD and other commodity-sensitive crosses. Traders monitoring GBP/USD should pay close attention to technical levels that may define the pair's near-term trajectory, while oil market developments could create secondary volatility across the forex landscape. The interplay between energy prices, central bank outlooks, and macroeconomic data creates a complex trading environment requiring careful risk management.
GBPUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The euro faced renewed selling pressure after Eurostat data revealed the Eurozone trade deficit widened dramatically to -€7.8 billion in May, far exceeding the expected -€1.6 billion and the revised prior reading of -€1.2 billion. This marks the largest trade deficit since January 2023, representing a stark reversal from the €15.0 billion surplus recorded in May of the previous year. The deterioration was primarily driven by surging energy imports, which continue to weigh heavily on the bloc's overall trade balance. Additional pressure came from a narrowing surplus in chemicals and machinery categories, traditionally strong export segments for the Eurozone. The data underscores structural headwinds for the euro, as persistent energy dependency erodes the region's external accounts. For EUR/USD traders, this widening deficit suggests reduced foreign demand for euros through trade channels, potentially limiting upside in the pair. Near-term focus shifts to whether the ECB acknowledges these external imbalances in upcoming communications, which could further influence EUR direction.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD has shifted from an underperformer to a market favorite, with the pair gaining traction amid a combination of supportive UK fundamentals and relative dollar softness. The British pound's resurgence reflects improving sentiment toward the UK economy, supported by recent GDP data showing marginal growth in May driven by a services sector rebound. Technical analysis highlights GBP/USD breaking through key resistance levels, suggesting the pair could extend its rally if momentum holds. The broader context includes the US Dollar Index futures showing signs of fatigue, while USD/JPY dynamics and elevated oil prices linked to the Brent crude market add complexity to dollar positioning. The Bank of England's measured approach to monetary policy, with officials indicating they are comfortable monitoring current conditions, provides a stable backdrop for sterling. Traders should watch for any shift in BoE rhetoric as a potential catalyst. Key technical levels and the interplay between UK economic resilience and US policy uncertainty will likely dictate GBP/USD direction in the sessions ahead.
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD is approaching a potential breakout above the 1.4239 resistance level as Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive price action. The pair has been trending higher as markets reassess the Fed's rate trajectory, with traders weighing the likelihood of prolonged higher rates supporting the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Diverging central bank policies between the Fed and the Bank of Canada remain a key fundamental driver, as Canada's economy faces headwinds from softer commodity prices and weaker domestic demand. Geopolitical risks stemming from the US-Iran conflict are adding a risk-averse bid to the greenback, further pressuring CAD as a commodity-linked currency. A confirmed breakout above 1.4239 could open the path toward the 1.4300 psychological level and beyond. Conversely, failure to breach resistance may trigger a pullback toward support near 1.4150. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed commentary and Middle East developments as primary catalysts for directional clarity.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is attracting safe-haven demand as Iran's military issued stark warnings that continued US attacks would trigger a response that would "go beyond the enemy's expectations" and expand the conflict to new geographic areas. Iran's army emphasized that a significant portion of its military capabilities remains unused, while simultaneously affirming its commitment to peaceful relations with Gulf neighbors. The escalation in rhetoric is injecting fresh geopolitical risk premium into forex markets, benefiting traditional safe havens like the USD, JPY, and CHF at the expense of risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD, NZD, and CAD. Crude oil prices are also reacting to the heightened tensions, indirectly impacting commodity-linked currency pairs. Traders should watch for potential spikes in volatility across major pairs including EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. The situation remains fluid, and any further military escalation could trigger sharp risk-off moves across the broader FX market, with particular downside pressure on emerging market and commodity currencies.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is finding support following a better-than-expected UK GDP report showing three-month rolling growth of 0.7%, comfortably beating the 0.5% consensus estimate. Monthly GDP for May came in at a modest 0.1%, driven primarily by a rebound in the services sector, which remains the backbone of the UK economy. While the monthly figure suggests only marginal expansion, the stronger three-month trend provides a more encouraging picture of the UK's economic trajectory. Traders are now turning attention to key events in the US session, which could shape cross-Atlantic rate differentials and directional moves in cable. The data reduces the urgency for further Bank of England easing in the near term, potentially supporting the pound against its major counterparts. For GBP/USD, traders should monitor whether the pair can sustain gains above key technical levels as broader market sentiment, particularly around US inflation data and Fed policy expectations, continues to drive dollar-side dynamics. The EUR/GBP cross may also see renewed selling pressure on relative UK economic outperformance.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The British pound faces lingering uncertainty as the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed it will only lay the groundwork for labour market statistical improvements in August, rather than implementing full reforms. The issue dates back to 2023 when falling response rates to the Labour Force Survey undermined the reliability of key employment data used by the Bank of England to guide monetary policy decisions. The lack of accurate labour market statistics complicates the BOE's ability to assess the true state of the UK economy, introducing an additional layer of uncertainty for GBP traders. Without reliable employment data, markets may struggle to price in BOE rate expectations with confidence, potentially increasing volatility in GBP pairs around data releases. For GBP/USD and EUR/GBP, this creates a fundamental backdrop where traders must weigh incomplete data against other economic indicators. Until the ONS delivers meaningful statistical upgrades, UK employment reports may carry reduced market impact, forcing traders to rely more heavily on alternative economic gauges such as GDP, inflation, and PMI surveys for sterling direction.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
European traders face a cautious session as markets digest softer-than-expected US PPI data for June, following similarly benign CPI figures earlier in the week. The dual inflation reports have provided significant relief for risk assets and eased concerns about persistent price pressures, though analysts note a common theme: both headline readings were driven lower primarily by falling gasoline prices rather than broad-based disinflation. This nuance is critical for forex positioning, as it suggests underlying inflation may remain stickier than the headline figures indicate. The US-Iran conflict remains a background risk factor, with any escalation potentially reversing the recent decline in energy prices and reigniting inflation concerns. EUR/USD and other dollar pairs are benefiting from reduced expectations for aggressive Fed tightening, with the softer data supporting the case for a more dovish rate path. Traders should exercise caution given the gasoline-driven nature of the inflation cooling, as any rebound in oil prices amid geopolitical tensions could quickly shift the narrative back toward hawkish Fed expectations and renewed dollar strength.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY remained elevated near the 162 level during the Asia-Pacific session, prompting Japan's finance minister to reiterate FX warnings as yen weakness persists. A senior BOJ official added urgency by cautioning that delaying rate adjustments could lead to an economic downturn in the future, signaling a potentially more hawkish stance ahead. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea delivered a unanimous 25 basis point rate hike to 2.75%, citing persistent inflation concerns, which supported the Korean won. Geopolitical developments intensified as the US completed a new wave of strikes on Iran, including hits on Bandar Abbas, maintaining risk-off undertones across Asian markets. The US also imposed 25% tariffs on select Brazilian goods while exempting beef and coffee. Asian chip stocks were slammed, with the Nikkei and Kospi both sliding sharply. South Korean regulators announced plans to curb single-stock leveraged ETFs as sidecars triggered on both the Kospi and Kosdaq. Traders should monitor BOJ policy signals closely, as any concrete move toward rate normalization could trigger a significant yen recovery.
USDJPY
USDKRW
USDBRL
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
