Fresh comments from a U.S. official suggest that any potential ceasefire with Iran remains secondary to the Trump administration's broader objective of holding Tehran accountable. The official added that military and economic pressure will continue until the President decides otherwise.
Source: Finnhub
The British pound faces uncertainty following the appointment of John Healey as the UK's new Chancellor of the Exchequer, a move that introduces fresh fiscal policy questions for GBP traders. Healey, one of Labour's most experienced politicians, brings direct Treasury experience from his tenure as Economic Secretary and Financial Secretary under Blair and Brown. He previously served as Defence Secretary from July 2024 until his resignation on June 11, 2026. His appointment signals potential shifts in UK fiscal policy direction, which could have meaningful implications for GBP pairs. Traders will be closely monitoring his initial policy statements for indications on taxation, government spending, and borrowing targets, all of which directly impact gilt yields and sterling valuation. The transition at the Treasury comes at a sensitive time as GBP/USD is already under technical selling pressure. Near-term, the appointment adds a layer of political uncertainty that may weigh on sterling until markets gain clarity on Healey's economic agenda and its alignment with Bank of England monetary policy objectives.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is extending losses after breaking below critical moving averages, shifting the technical picture decisively in favor of sellers. The pair first breached its 100-hour moving average at 1.34585, a move that emboldened bears and put buyers on the defensive. The subsequent break below the 200-hour moving average confirmed a bearish technical shift, with the pair now targeting a cluster of lower support levels. What had been a relatively balanced session earlier deteriorated as sellers gained momentum through successive technical breakdowns. The sequence of lower support violations suggests increasing downside conviction among market participants. Traders should watch for potential support at the next cluster of technical targets below the 200-hour MA, while any recovery attempt will face resistance at the broken moving averages, which now act as overhead barriers. The breakdown aligns with broader USD strength driven by rising US Treasury yields across the curve. Sellers remain in control unless the pair can reclaim the 200-hour moving average on a sustained basis.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is strengthening broadly as Treasury yields push to new session highs across the entire yield curve, providing fundamental support for the greenback. The 2-year yield has risen 4.5 basis points to 4.216%, the 5-year is up 4.3 bps to 4.316%, the 10-year has climbed 4.1 bps to 4.581%, and the 30-year has advanced 3.2 bps to 5.096%. The 2-year yield bounced from Friday's low of 4.11%, and has now reclaimed technically significant levels, trading back above both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages near 4.187%. The broad-based rise in yields suggests markets are repricing rate expectations, potentially pushing back the timeline for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yield curve dynamics, with the front end leading the move higher, indicate strengthening near-term rate expectations. Dollar bulls are finding reinforcement from these yield movements, putting pressure on major counterparts including the euro, pound, and yen. Traders should monitor whether yields sustain above these moving average levels for continued USD momentum.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both advancing at the start of the North American session, driven by a broad risk-on environment and constructive technical setups. Equity futures are signaling a strong open, with S&P 500 futures up approximately 21 points and Nasdaq futures gaining around 252 points, reinforcing appetite for higher-yielding commodity currencies. The improving risk sentiment appears linked to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly around U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments, which have lifted market confidence. Both antipodean pairs are benefiting from technical breakouts that have attracted momentum buyers. For AUD/USD, traders are watching for sustained moves above recent resistance levels, while NZD/USD is similarly testing key upside targets. The bullish alignment of both risk appetite and technicals suggests further upside potential in the near term, though traders should remain cautious of any reversal in equity sentiment or unexpected USD strength. Positioning favors long exposure in both pairs while risk-on conditions persist.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Canada's June CPI data came in softer than expected across nearly all measures, reinforcing expectations for further Bank of Canada easing. Headline CPI fell to 2.8% year-over-year versus the 2.9% estimate, down sharply from 3.2% in the prior month. The monthly CPI reading plunged to -0.4%, well below the -0.2% forecast and a significant reversal from the prior month's 1.0% gain. BoC Core CPI eased to 2.1% year-over-year from 2.2%, while the core monthly reading dropped to just 0.1% from 0.6%. The CPI median came in at 1.9%, below the 2.1% estimate, marking a notable move below the Bank of Canada's 2% target midpoint. These disinflationary readings strengthen the case for additional rate cuts, placing downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD traders should monitor BoC commentary for confirmation of dovish policy expectations. The data suggests the Bank of Canada's tightening cycle has effectively cooled price pressures, potentially accelerating the timeline for rate reductions.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is trading mixed and largely unchanged against the three major currency pairs to start the North American session. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD are showing little directional conviction, with price action confined to tight ranges as traders assess competing macro signals. In contrast, the commodity-linked AUD and NZD are outperforming on risk-on flows, creating a divergence within the broader dollar complex. Technical analysis across the major pairs reveals a neutral near-term bias, with defined support and resistance levels keeping price contained. For EUR/USD, traders are watching key levels for a breakout in either direction, while USD/JPY and GBP/USD similarly await catalysts for more decisive moves. The mixed dollar performance reflects a market in wait-and-see mode, with participants balancing easing geopolitical tensions against upcoming economic data releases. Traders are advised to monitor technical breakout levels closely, as the current consolidation phase could resolve with a sharp directional move once a catalyst emerges.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Global markets rallied and crude oil prices declined as both the United States and Iran signaled openness to diplomatic negotiations, easing fears of prolonged geopolitical conflict. The prospect of de-escalation has significantly improved risk sentiment across asset classes, with equity markets bouncing and safe-haven demand receding. Crude oil's retreat directly impacts commodity-linked currencies and inflation expectations, potentially influencing central bank policy trajectories. The improved geopolitical outlook is benefiting risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD while reducing safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF. For forex traders, the shift in risk appetite is creating clear divergences across the currency spectrum, favoring carry trades and higher-yielding currencies. However, traders should remain vigilant as geopolitical developments can reverse quickly, and any breakdown in negotiations could trigger a sharp risk-off reversal. Near-term, the diplomatic progress supports a constructive market environment, though positioning should account for headline risk from further U.S.-Iran developments.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
European markets closed with a broadly positive tone as oil prices eased and equities bounced following Iran's Foreign Ministry indicating that diplomatic efforts remain active despite recent hostilities. Iran confirmed receiving mediation proposals from several parties, raising hopes for a negotiated resolution to the U.S.-Iran crisis. Oil's retreat is reducing near-term inflation fears, though gold remains under pressure as elevated geopolitical risk keeps inflation and rate hike expectations alive. The ECB's Q2 SAFE survey showed inflation and wage growth expectations easing, though upside risks persist, supporting a cautious ECB stance. German producer prices edged lower in June, aided by declining energy costs, adding to signs of disinflation in the eurozone. For forex traders, the combination of easing oil prices and improving risk sentiment favors commodity-sensitive and risk-on currencies, while EUR dynamics remain tied to ECB policy expectations. Traders should watch for further geopolitical headlines and upcoming ECB communications for directional cues on EUR pairs.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical tensions show a potential easing signal as mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes between the United States and Iran, aimed at reviving diplomatic negotiations. The proposal calls for both nations to return to their pre-July 9th positions, effectively rolling back recent escalatory actions. This development carries significant implications for forex and commodity markets, as the ongoing US-Iran military confrontation has been a primary driver of oil price spikes and risk-off sentiment. If accepted, the ceasefire could ease pressure on crude oil prices, which have been ramping higher due to Iran's attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent US blockade. A de-escalation would likely benefit risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD while potentially reducing safe-haven demand for JPY and CHF. However, traders should remain cautious, as previous diplomatic attempts have stalled. The proposal's acceptance or rejection will be a key catalyst for near-term direction in oil-correlated and risk-sensitive currency pairs.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index retreated during the week ended July 17, as better-than-expected inflation readings diminished expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Softer CPI data reinforced the narrative that the Fed's tightening cycle may be nearing its conclusion, prompting broad-based dollar selling against major counterparts including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. The cooling inflation figures suggest price pressures are easing more rapidly than anticipated, giving the Fed room to pause or hold rates steady at upcoming meetings. Market participants have significantly repriced rate hike probabilities, with fed funds futures now reflecting reduced odds of additional tightening. The dollar's decline benefited risk-sensitive currencies and commodity-linked pairs such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed commentary and next month's inflation data for confirmation of the disinflationary trend. Near-term, the DXY faces support at recent weekly lows, while resistance sits at pre-CPI levels. A sustained shift in rate expectations could extend the dollar's downside trajectory in the weeks ahead.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Oil prices have pulled back modestly as Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei indicated that Tehran remains open to diplomatic engagement based on national interests, with mediators actively sharing messages in recent days. This development has eased some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting crude prices and commodity-linked currencies. Despite the diplomatic signals, key tensions persist — Iran maintains that sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. The mixed signals create a complex backdrop for oil-sensitive pairs such as USD/CAD, where reduced crude prices typically weigh on the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF may moderate if diplomatic progress materializes. Traders should monitor further US-Iran developments closely, as any breakdown in negotiations could rapidly reverse the current easing in oil prices. Near-term, the balance between escalation headlines and diplomatic overtures will drive volatility in energy markets and correlated forex pairs.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The euro faces a pivotal week as the European Central Bank's July 2026 rate decision takes center stage in a packed global macro calendar. Markets are closely watching for signals on whether the ECB will adjust its monetary stance amid evolving inflation dynamics across the eurozone. The decision comes alongside key developments from the Bank of Canada, adding cross-currency implications for EUR/CAD and USD/CAD positioning. EUR/USD traders are weighing the likelihood of a dovish pivot against persistent core inflation pressures in the bloc. A rate hold would likely support the euro near current levels, while any surprise cut could push EUR/USD toward lower support zones. The broader macro backdrop includes shifting global inflation expectations, which are influencing yield differentials across major pairs. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility around the announcement window, with particular attention to the ECB's forward guidance language and updated economic projections. Near-term EUR/USD direction will hinge heavily on the policy statement's tone relative to market pricing.
EURUSD
EURCAD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The European session opens with a thin economic calendar, featuring only low-tier releases including German PPI and Eurozone Construction Output, neither of which is expected to materially shift ECB policy expectations. EUR/USD is likely to trade in a narrow range during European hours absent fresh catalysts from the data front. However, the dominant driver across forex markets remains the escalating US-Iran situation, with a US official confirming Washington is planning for a wider military conflict and the Pentagon increasing aircraft deployments to the Middle East. This geopolitical escalation is fueling safe-haven demand for JPY and CHF while pressuring risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD. Oil prices remain elevated on supply disruption fears, supporting CAD but adding inflationary concerns globally. Traders should exercise caution as headline risk is extreme — sudden developments could trigger sharp moves across major pairs. Key focus shifts to any new US-Iran statements that could either accelerate de-escalation or push markets deeper into risk-off positioning throughout the session.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices are rallying sharply to start the new week as escalating military confrontations between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz fuel supply disruption fears. Iran has struck commercial tankers transiting the critical waterway, prompting the US to reimpose a naval blockade in the region. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil shipments, making any disruption a significant macroeconomic event. Rising oil prices are expected to weigh heavily on oil-importing currencies, particularly USD/INR, USD/JPY, and EUR/USD, while commodity-linked currencies such as CAD may find support. The geopolitical risk premium is casting a dark cloud over broader risk sentiment, with safe-haven flows likely to benefit JPY and CHF. Traders should monitor developments closely as further escalation could push WTI toward key resistance levels and amplify volatility across forex markets. Near-term, energy-sensitive pairs like USD/CAD may see increased directional moves as the market prices in sustained supply risk.
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
USDINR
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil prices continue to climb sharply to start the new trading week as the US-Iran military conflict intensifies in the Middle East, casting a dark shadow over global risk sentiment. Iran has escalated operations by attacking ships in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil supply, prompting the United States to reimpose a naval blockade in the region. This dual escalation threatens significant disruption to global oil supply chains, driving crude prices higher and injecting volatility across forex markets. Oil-correlated currencies like the Canadian dollar (CAD) and Norwegian krone (NOK) stand to benefit from elevated crude prices, while oil-importing nations' currencies, particularly JPY, may face additional headwinds. The geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices is also supporting safe-haven flows into USD and CHF. Traders should closely monitor developments around the proposed 10-day ceasefire and any further Strait of Hormuz disruptions, as these will be primary drivers for oil-sensitive forex pairs in the near term.
USDCAD
CADJPY
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asian currencies are under significant pressure in early Monday trading as surging oil prices driven by the expanding US-Iran military conflict rattle regional markets. The Indian rupee has been particularly hard hit, with USD/INR pushing higher as India's heavy reliance on oil imports amplifies the impact of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. MUFG analysts note that the oil rebound is broadly pressuring Asian currencies, with knock-on effects expected for USD/KRW, USD/THB, and USD/MYR. Adding to regional market stress, the best-performing equity market of 2026 has been rattled by chip sector volatility and ETF unwinds, compounding risk-off sentiment. Safe-haven demand is likely supporting JPY and CHF in the near term. Traders should watch for potential central bank intervention in Asian FX markets if oil continues its ascent. Key resistance for USD/INR sits at recent highs, while broad dollar strength against EM currencies could persist if geopolitical tensions remain elevated and crude prices hold their gains.
USDINR
USDJPY
USDKRW
USDTHB
USDMYR
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
