Iranian news agencies report that there are strikes in Iran for a third day. Iran yesterday retaliated against US bases in the region and is threatening to take that further.
Source: Finnhub
US June existing home sales highlights:Prior was 4.17mSales pace -2.4% vs +3.2% prior Inventory at 4.6 months vs 4.5 month priorMedian sale price +1.8% vs +1.3% y/y priorThe Fed is fighting an inflation battle but housing has been a material help in keeping prices low. That's a blessing but it could be a curse if/when home prices begin to accelerate again.
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures are trading higher while crude oil prices decline as markets largely shrug off the latest round of Middle East airstrikes, signaling a risk-on shift that is supporting the US dollar. The muted reaction in oil markets, despite escalating geopolitical tensions, suggests traders are pricing in limited disruption to global energy supply chains. Typically, Middle East conflicts drive safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF while boosting commodity-linked currencies like CAD through higher oil prices, but the current dynamic is inverting that pattern. The drop in oil prices is weighing on USD/CAD, as the Canadian dollar loses a key support driver, while USD/JPY is seeing upward pressure as risk appetite improves and equity futures point to a stronger open. EUR/USD remains under modest pressure as the dollar benefits from the broader risk-on tone. Traders should monitor whether geopolitical developments escalate further, which could rapidly reverse current positioning. Near-term, the market's willingness to fade geopolitical risk suggests continued dollar strength against commodity and safe-haven currencies alike.
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Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Headlines:US president Trump reaffirms that Iran called a while ago and that they want to make a dealOil prices continue to surge amid heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed supply fearsDollar holds lower after Trump says that Iran wants to make a deal againECB's Escriva: the ECB cannot adjust monetary policy in response to every geopolitical developmentAll members viewed risks to inflation outlook as being to the upside - ECB accountsJapan chief cabinet secretary says government is watching...
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Source: Finnhub
Government is watching markets with very high sense of urgencyLong-term interest rates are decided by markets based on various factorsWant to secure market trust by stably lowering government debt-to-GDP ratioIt's not direct verbal intervention and jawboning towards the Japanese yen currency situation, but the headline remark is indirectly alluding to that. The Japanese government continues to reaffirm that Takaichi's fiscal policy approach remains the right way to go.
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Source: Finnhub
EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the ECB accounts. This is never a market moving report as the information is outdated by the time it's released. At the moment, the markets are just extending the pullbacks from yesterday's lows after Trump started to de-escalate the situation with Iran.
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Source: Finnhub
Most regional economies are seen as "recovering moderately" still.Besides that, many regions did note a risk of a sharp drop in exports while firms are mulling price increases for food, daily ncessities around the summer onwards.
Source: Finnhub
It looks like war is back on the menu, or is it?US president Trump said that he believes the ceasefire deal with Iran was "over" yesterday, before saying that he doesn't think that the war will start up again here. At the same time though, he says that "anything that happens will be over quickly".
Source: Finnhub
Bank of Korea's Shin flags rate hike as inflation runs hottest in yearsChina factory-gate inflation hits 4-year high as CPI coolsChipmaker rally lifts Kospi, Nikkei as oil risk lingersChina June 2026 CPI +1% y/y Oil has moved a little higher in price as Iranian retaliatory attacjs continuePBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8036 Iran launches missiles on Bahrain, Gulf sirens soundIran seeks a deal, Trump says, after first US infrastructure strikeTrump: Iranians "called a short...
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Source: Finnhub
The divergence between rising producer prices and cooling consumer inflation captures China's two-track economy in a single data set: upstream and export-linked sectors are seeing genuine pricing power return as global AI-driven demand lifts advanced manufacturing, while domestic consumption remains too weak for that cost pressure to reach households.
Source: Finnhub
