Trump is speaking on FOXBusiness and says: Oil prices will yo-yo for a while.Thinks inflation at year end will be lower than it is now.Would like to see rates go down, but better to pause than to hike.Warsh has a board. Maybe it is hostile.Has respect for Fed Chair Warsh. Wishes he could use tariffs faster.Iran wants to meet. Iran wants to settle.We'll find out if we settle with them. They want to settleThe WSJ is now reporting that:Trump is leaning toward expanding US military...
Source: Finnhub
It is the capital of Khuzestan and sits along the Karun River, Iran's longest navigable river.Why it matters. Oil hub: Ahvaz sits in the heart of one of the world's largest oil-producing regions. Many of Iran's largest oil fields, including the Ahvaz Oil Field, are nearby. Strategic location: It is about 75–100 km east of the Iraqi border and roughly 150 km north of the Persian Gulf.
Source: Finnhub
The EURUSD has extended its rally, climbing to a new session high of 1.1456 as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure following another round of softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data.
USD
EUR
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is receiving a supportive bid as markets react positively to the appointment of Shabana Mahmood as the next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. Mahmood, widely regarded as more business-friendly and pragmatic compared to Labour's left wing, is expected to prioritize fiscal restraint, policy stability, and predictable decision-making at the Treasury. Investors have welcomed the prospect, viewing her leadership as conducive to measured government spending balanced with targeted investment in infrastructure and public services. The appointment reduces political uncertainty surrounding UK fiscal policy, which has historically been a key driver of sterling volatility. Market participants recall the sharp GBP sell-off during the 2022 mini-budget crisis, and Mahmood's emphasis on fiscal discipline provides a stark contrast. For traders, the new Chancellor's policy stance is likely to anchor gilt yields and reduce risk premiums on sterling assets. Near-term, the political development adds a bullish tailwind for GBP crosses, though the magnitude of any move will depend on concrete fiscal policy announcements in the coming weeks.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD has surged to a new session high, testing a key retracement and swing area target as weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index data bolstered the disinflation narrative. The rally extends gains following yesterday's softer CPI report, with consecutive below-forecast inflation readings prompting a fresh wave of US dollar selling. The back-to-back soft inflation prints have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in upcoming meetings, weighing heavily on the greenback across the board. From a technical perspective, the pair is now testing a confluence of resistance at a retracement zone and prior swing area, a level that could act as a near-term ceiling if buyers fail to sustain momentum above it. A decisive break higher would open the door to further upside, while rejection at this resistance could trigger a pullback toward intraday support levels. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed commentary for further rate path clarity, as the inflation data materially shifts the policy outlook in favor of potential easing.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD has corrected back to unchanged on the day after yesterday's sharp decline triggered by weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI data. The pair had fallen decisively below the key support zone between 1.4125 and 1.4143, breaking beneath the 100-hour moving average and an upward-sloping trendline that had guided the rally since May 1. The initial breakdown was significant from a technical perspective, as sellers maintained pressure even after the first move lower, reinforcing the bearish case. However, today's session has seen buyers step back in, reclaiming lost ground and returning the pair to its opening level. The bounce suggests the support break may not yet be definitive, with the 1.4125–1.4143 zone now acting as potential resistance on any retest. Traders should watch whether the pair can sustain above this area or if sellers reassert control. The broader context remains USD-negative following soft inflation data, but the correction highlights the importance of confirmation before committing to directional trades.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD remains under scrutiny as analysts warn the pair is not out of the woods despite a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report. While the weaker inflation reading initially boosted the euro against the dollar, structural headwinds continue to weigh on the pair's upside potential. The U.S. Dollar Index remains resilient, suggesting that markets are not fully pricing in a dovish Federal Reserve pivot despite the inflation miss. Energy markets, including Brent crude dynamics, add another layer of complexity to the EUR/USD outlook. From a fundamental standpoint, Eurozone-specific risks and divergent monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Fed continue to cap gains. Traders should note that a single soft CPI print may not be sufficient to reverse the broader dollar trend, particularly if upcoming economic data surprises to the upside. Key technical levels and the interplay between rate expectations and risk sentiment will be critical in determining EUR/USD's near-term direction. Caution is warranted for bullish euro positions.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
U.S. Producer Price Index for June came in significantly below expectations at 5.5% year-over-year versus 6.2% forecast and 6.5% prior, with the month-over-month reading declining 0.3% against the expected +0.1%. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) also missed estimates at 4.7% versus 5.2% expected on an annual basis, while the monthly core reading rose just 0.2% against 0.4% anticipated. The data validates yesterday's CPI downside surprise and strengthens the case for easing inflationary pressures. Key details show final demand energy plunging 6.4%, with gasoline down 12.0%, while food prices fell 0.6%. Services showed a modest 0.2% gain. Processed goods for intermediate demand declined 1.2% month-over-month. This broad-based softness in producer prices is USD-negative, as it reduces urgency for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. The data supports expectations for a potential pause or slowdown in rate hikes, which could weigh on the dollar across major pairs in the near term.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Canadian manufacturing sales for May missed expectations, coming in below the anticipated +1.1% growth, following a strong prior reading of +4.2%. Wholesale trade data also disappointed, falling short of the expected -0.7% decline, compared to a +0.6% prior reading. The softer-than-expected data arrives at a critical juncture, with the Bank of Canada rate decision scheduled for 9:45 AM ET on the same day. The weaker economic indicators could influence the BoC's forward guidance and policy tone, potentially signaling a more cautious approach to further tightening. For USD/CAD traders, the combination of soft Canadian data and yesterday's weak U.S. CPI creates a mixed fundamental backdrop, with both currencies facing headwinds from their respective data releases. The BoC decision will likely be the dominant catalyst for CAD direction in the near term. Traders should monitor the rate statement closely for any shifts in language regarding inflation expectations and future rate path, as these will drive CAD volatility.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The U.S. dollar is trading virtually unchanged against all major currencies at the start of the North American session, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD all within 0.13% of their opening levels. The tight ranges suggest markets are in a holding pattern following yesterday's significant CPI-driven moves, awaiting the next catalyst for directional conviction. Several major U.S. data releases are expected to provide the next potential shove for these pairs. From a technical standpoint, all three major pairs are trading in confined ranges, with key support and resistance levels well-defined on the hourly charts. The consolidation phase reflects a market digesting the implications of softer U.S. inflation data while weighing upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary. Traders should be prepared for potential breakouts from these tight ranges as new data hits the wires. Low volatility environments often precede sharp directional moves, making risk management and level identification particularly important during this session.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY shrugged off a softer-than-expected US CPI print as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept inflation risks alive and supported the pair. European markets closed with oil prices holding at elevated levels and bond yields pushing higher, reflecting persistent uncertainty despite the brief relief from cooler US inflation data. ECB policymaker Nagel stated that interest rates are at an appropriate level following June's decision, while Panetta emphasized the ECB's commitment to anchoring inflation expectations and limiting second-round effects. Stournaras warned that renewed US-Iran conflict has reignited inflation and growth concerns across the region. Meanwhile, the PBOC reaffirmed its accommodative monetary stance. The interplay between easing US inflation and escalating geopolitical risks creates a complex backdrop for USD pairs. Rising oil prices add upward pressure on yields, potentially supporting the dollar against the yen. Traders should monitor Middle East developments closely, as any further escalation could override the dovish CPI signal and sustain USD/JPY's resilience near current levels.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Market Analysis by covering: Euro US Dollar, FTSE 100, US Dollar Index Futures, Crude Oil WTI Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
EURUSD
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD faces downward pressure after Eurozone industrial production data for May came in at -0.2% month-over-month, significantly missing the expected +0.2% gain. The prior month's reading was revised upward to +0.3% from the initially reported +0.1%, providing only partial offset to the disappointing headline figure. The country-level breakdown highlighted a sharp drop in Irish industrial output, likely driven by well-known volatility in Ireland's pharmaceutical and technology sectors, which have historically distorted aggregate Eurozone data. The miss underscores ongoing fragility in the euro area manufacturing sector and may reinforce expectations that the ECB will maintain a cautious stance on further rate adjustments. For EUR/USD, the weak data adds to bearish fundamental headwinds at a time when the pair is already navigating mixed signals from US inflation dynamics. Traders should watch upcoming PMI releases and ECB commentary for further directional cues, as persistent industrial weakness could weigh on euro sentiment in the near term.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is trading in a consolidation pattern as market participants await upcoming political news from the United Kingdom that could inject fresh volatility into the pair. The cable has been range-bound as traders weigh the potential impact of political developments against the broader macro backdrop, including elevated Brent oil prices and shifting US dollar dynamics. Political uncertainty in the UK has historically created short-term volatility for sterling pairs, and the current environment is no exception, with positioning remaining cautious ahead of expected announcements. The interplay between UK political risk and global factors such as oil prices and US monetary policy expectations continues to shape GBP/USD's near-term trajectory. Traders should be prepared for sharp moves in either direction once political clarity emerges. Key technical levels to watch include recent support zones and resistance near psychological round numbers. A decisive break from the current range, driven by political catalysts, could set the tone for GBP/USD's direction in the coming sessions.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY remains in focus as Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi moved to dismiss concerns that the government's draft economic blueprint was responsible for the recent surge in Japanese government bond yields. Takaichi emphasized that foreign exchange rates and interest rates are determined by markets, influenced by various factors including US interest rates and broader economic indicators. The statement follows growing market anxiety over potential political interference in monetary policy after the blueprint stated it was 'very important for monetary policy to be guided appropriately.' Japan's commitment to a strong economy and sustainable fiscal policies was reiterated. The remarks aim to calm bond market volatility, which had raised fears of wider repercussions across yen-denominated assets. For USD/JPY traders, the key risk remains whether the Bank of Japan's policy independence is perceived as compromised. Rising JGB yields typically support the yen, but political uncertainty could offset this dynamic. Traders should monitor subsequent BOJ communications and US rate differentials for near-term directional cues.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is navigating mixed signals as Spain's final June CPI was confirmed at 3.2% year-over-year, in line with the preliminary reading. Core annual inflation edged down marginally to 2.9% from 3.0% in May, remaining stubbornly above the ECB's 2% target. The data underscores persistent inflationary pressures in the euro area's fourth-largest economy, a factor the ECB must weigh alongside similar readings from Germany. However, when aggregated with other euro area inflation data, the June figures still afford the ECB flexibility to pause rate adjustments at its July meeting. Meanwhile, the recently soft US CPI print has eased Fed tightening fears, providing a supportive backdrop for risk sentiment and relieving some downward pressure on EUR/USD. Traders should watch for Eurozone Industrial Production data and broader inflation trends for further direction. Near-term, the pair is likely to consolidate as markets await more definitive guidance from the ECB. Persistent core inflation above target limits the scope for aggressive ECB easing.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD and broader risk-sensitive pairs are benefiting from improved market sentiment following a surprisingly soft US CPI report, which has reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. The European session ahead features only low-tier releases, including final Spanish CPI and Eurozone Industrial Production, neither of which is expected to materially shift ECB rate expectations or generate significant market reaction. The softer US inflation data has provided a notable breather for markets, encouraging positive risk sentiment and reducing dollar demand. Focus now shifts to the US session, where PPI data and Fed Chair Powell's testimony are anticipated as the next major catalysts. These events carry the potential to either reinforce or reverse the current dovish repricing of Fed policy. Traders should remain alert for volatility around Powell's remarks, which could set the tone for USD pairs through the week. In the interim, EUR/USD is expected to trade in a narrow range during European hours, with directional conviction likely deferred to US session developments.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar came under pressure following the June CPI report, which printed at 3.5% versus the 3.8% consensus forecast, providing markets with a notable dovish signal. The softer inflation reading initially triggered broad USD selling across major pairs, though analysts caution that the decline was largely driven by a marked fall in gasoline prices rather than a broad-based disinflationary trend. Core components of the report may still reflect persistent underlying price pressures. The cooler headline figure has reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more accommodative stance in upcoming policy meetings, potentially bringing forward rate cut expectations. For USD pairs, traders should monitor whether the dollar weakness extends or stabilizes as markets digest the details behind the headline miss. Key levels to watch include DXY support near recent lows, with resistance at pre-CPI levels. The data provides temporary relief for risk assets, but traders should remain cautious as gasoline-driven disinflation may prove transitory, limiting sustained dollar downside.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Asian-Pacific markets navigated a volatile session as China's Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year, the weakest pace in three and a half years, while geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated dramatically. China's June retail sales rose a tepid 1.0% y/y, while industrial output held at 5.3% y/y. New home prices fell for a fourth consecutive year, declining 3.3% y/y in June, underscoring persistent weakness in the property sector. These figures weigh heavily on CNH, AUD, and NZD as China-sensitive proxies. Meanwhile, US military strikes on Iranian sites near the Strait of Hormuz triggered retaliatory attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, sending oil prices sharply higher and boosting safe-haven flows into JPY and CHF. The Korea Exchange halted trading amid the turmoil. The Nikkei posted modest gains but was capped by caution ahead of ASML earnings. Traders should brace for elevated volatility across oil-linked and safe-haven currencies, with USD/JPY likely pressured lower on risk-off sentiment.
USDJPY
USDCNH
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
USDKRW
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD faces downward pressure following China's Q2 GDP print of 4.3% year-on-year, significantly missing the 4.5% consensus forecast and marking the weakest growth pace in three and a half years, down sharply from Q1's 5.0%. The quarter-on-quarter figure came in at 0.9%, matching expectations but decelerating from the prior 1.3%. The GDP miss is compounded by Iran-linked oil supply disruptions adding an external drag to China's persistent property downturn, creating a challenging dual headwind for growth. While industrial output and exports showed resilience, fixed asset investment remained weak, highlighting an increasingly unbalanced growth composition. For AUD traders, China's status as Australia's largest trading partner makes this data critical. The narrowing policy options for Beijing — particularly the reluctance to address the property sector directly — suggest sustained economic headwinds that could weigh on commodity demand. Traders should monitor USD/CNH for directional cues, while AUD/USD may test nearby support levels if risk sentiment deteriorates further on China growth concerns.
AUDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CNH is poised for upside after China reported Q2 GDP growth of 4.3% year-on-year, well below the 4.5% forecast and a sharp deceleration from Q1's 5.0% pace. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth printed at 0.9%, matching expectations but slowing from the prior 1.3%. The H1 2026 national urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, pointing to lingering labor market softness that could constrain consumer spending. The weaker-than-expected annual growth figure increases the probability of additional People's Bank of China easing measures, including potential reserve requirement ratio cuts or targeted lending facilities, which would weigh on the yuan. The divergence between the in-line quarterly figure and the annual miss suggests that growth momentum faded meaningfully through the quarter. For forex traders, this data strengthens the case for CNH weakness against the dollar in the near term. Key resistance for USD/CNH sits at recent highs, while any PBOC stimulus announcements could trigger volatility. AUD and NZD crosses also remain vulnerable given their China-sensitive trade profiles.
USDCNH
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD remains under bearish pressure as data shows new home prices in China continued declining in June, extending the downturn to a fourth consecutive year. While the pace of deterioration showed marginal signs of easing on both a year-on-year and month-on-month basis, the broader trend remains firmly negative, indicating the property market has yet to find a floor. China's housing sector, a critical driver of domestic consumption and commodity demand, continues to weigh on growth expectations and risk-sensitive currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The persistent property weakness limits the effectiveness of monetary easing measures already deployed by the PBOC, as credit transmission remains impaired by weak housing demand. For AUD/USD traders, the prolonged Chinese property downturn reinforces a cautious stance, particularly given Australia's heavy reliance on iron ore and other commodity exports tied to Chinese construction activity. Near-term price action will likely hinge on whether Beijing introduces more aggressive property-specific stimulus measures. Traders should also watch copper and iron ore prices as leading indicators for AUD direction.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCNH
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
