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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, September 4, 2025

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News Statistics for Thursday, September 4, 2025

12
Total Articles
4
Bullish
4
Bearish
4
Neutral

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Archive date: Thursday, September 4, 2025

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Forexlive

investingLive Americas FX news wrap: ISM services a touch strong, ADP a touch soft

August US ADP employment +54K vs +65K expectedISM August services PMI 52.0 vs 51.0 expectedUS September S&P Global final services PMI 54.5 vs 55.4 prelimUS initial jobless claims 237K vs 230K expectedFed's Williams says he expects rates to come down gradually over timeWilliams: Expects tariff impact to play out into the middle of next yearMore from Williams: Sees reduced upside risk to inflation from tariffsUS EIA weekly oil inventories +2415K vs -2031K expectedMiran says tightening US borders...
USD JPY NZD
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD weakens as oil inventory build exceeds expectations, crude unmoved

US crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged by 2.415 million barrels versus expectations of a 2.031 million barrel draw, marking a significant miss that typically pressures oil prices and weighs on commodity currencies. The build contrasts sharply with the previous week's 2.392 million barrel decline. Distillate stocks also rose 1.681 million barrels against a projected 598,000 barrel draw, while gasoline inventories fell 3.795 million barrels, exceeding the expected 1.068 million decline. Despite the bearish crude data, WTI oil prices remained largely unchanged in immediate trading, suggesting the market may have already priced in supply concerns. The muted reaction indicates traders are focusing more on broader economic indicators than energy fundamentals. For forex traders, the lack of oil price movement limits immediate impact on commodity-linked currencies like CAD and NOK, though sustained inventory builds could eventually weaken these pairs against majors.
USDCAD USDNOK
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/JPY recovers fully from Tuesday's decline, yen weakness persists

USD/JPY has staged a complete recovery from yesterday's losses, climbing to session highs as yen weakness continues to dominate trading. The pair's rebound suggests strong underlying dollar demand and persistent concerns about Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy stance. Technical momentum appears bullish with the pair erasing Tuesday's entire decline, indicating buyers are defending key support levels aggressively. The move higher reflects broader risk-on sentiment in markets and ongoing divergence between Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy expectations. Immediate resistance lies at recent highs, while yesterday's low now acts as near-term support. The swift recovery demonstrates limited downside appetite for USD/JPY, with traders viewing dips as buying opportunities. Further yen weakness could accelerate if upcoming US economic data supports Fed hawkishness, potentially pushing the pair toward psychological resistance levels.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

EUR Markets Steady Ahead of Key US Data Releases

European forex markets displayed improved stability during Wednesday's morning session, with major currency pairs consolidating after recent volatility. EUR/USD held steady near 1.0780, while GBP/USD maintained levels around 1.2650 as traders positioned cautiously ahead of crucial US economic indicators. The dollar index remained flat at 101.50, reflecting market uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. Investors are particularly focused on upcoming US employment data, including ADP private payrolls and weekly jobless claims, which could provide insights into labor market conditions ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. European equities showed modest gains, with the DAX up 0.2% and FTSE 100 advancing 0.3%, supporting risk sentiment. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD facing resistance at 1.0800, while support holds at 1.0750. The subdued volatility suggests markets are in wait-and-see mode, with potential for sharp moves once US data is released.
EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexcrunch.com

EUR/USD cautious near 1.1100 as weak ADP data fuels Fed cut hopes

EUR/USD trades cautiously around the 1.1100 level following disappointing US ADP employment data that has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The private payrolls report showed significantly weaker job creation than anticipated, immediately weakening the dollar across major pairs. Markets are now positioning defensively ahead of Friday's crucial Non-Farm Payrolls release, which could confirm labor market softening and cement aggressive Fed easing expectations. The pair remains range-bound as traders await clearer directional catalysts, with technical resistance at 1.1150 and support at 1.1050. European economic concerns continue to cap euro gains despite dollar weakness. The soft ADP figures have shifted market focus entirely to US employment dynamics, with a weak NFP potentially triggering a sustained EUR/USD rally above 1.1200. Conversely, a strong jobs report could quickly reverse recent dollar losses.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexcrunch.com

AUD/USD gains as weak US jobs data strengthens Fed easing outlook

AUD/USD has advanced following disappointing US ADP employment figures that have significantly strengthened the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The weaker-than-expected private payrolls data immediately pressured the dollar, allowing the Australian dollar to gain ground despite mixed domestic fundamentals. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of aggressive Fed easing, which could narrow the interest rate differential between the US and Australia. The pair faces immediate resistance at recent highs, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential if US labor market weakness persists. Support has formed at previous resistance levels, indicating a potential trend reversal. Friday's NFP report becomes crucial for confirming this bullish AUD/USD trajectory. A continuation of soft US employment data could propel the pair toward key psychological levels, while any positive surprise might trigger a sharp reversal as Fed cut expectations moderate.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY Consolidates at 147.50 as Volatility Spikes Higher

USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase around 147.50, displaying increased volatility as markets balance conflicting fundamental forces. The pair has traded in a 100-pip range between 147.00-148.00 over the past 48 hours, reflecting uncertainty about both Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policies. Implied volatility measures have jumped to three-month highs, suggesting traders expect significant price swings ahead. The yen found support from safe-haven flows amid global growth concerns, while the dollar benefited from elevated US Treasury yields, with the 10-year reaching 4.25%. Technical indicators show the pair in equilibrium, with the RSI at neutral 50 and price action respecting both the 50-day (147.80) and 200-day (146.20) moving averages. Key resistance lies at 148.50, while support at 146.50 has proven durable. Traders should prepare for potential breakout scenarios, particularly around upcoming US employment data and any unexpected BOJ policy communications.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD drops as Eurozone retail sales disappoint at -0.5% vs -0.2% expected

EUR/USD declined 0.2% to 1.1095 following weaker-than-expected Eurozone retail sales data for July. The -0.5% month-over-month decline significantly missed the -0.2% forecast, despite June's figure being revised higher from +0.3% to +0.6%. The breakdown revealed broad-based weakness: food, drinks, and tobacco sales fell 1.1%, automotive fuel dropped 1.7%, while non-food products managed only a marginal 0.2% increase. This disappointing data adds to concerns about Eurozone consumer demand and could influence ECB policy decisions. The euro faces immediate support at 1.1080 (daily pivot), with resistance at 1.1120 (50-day moving average). Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for potential dovish shifts, as persistent retail weakness may prompt reassessment of the central bank's tightening cycle.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD Weakens as Employment Concerns Mount Before NFP Release

The US dollar retreated against major currencies as deteriorating labor market sentiment weighed on the greenback ahead of Friday's crucial Non-Farm Payrolls report. EUR/USD advanced 0.4% to 1.0820, while GBP/USD climbed 0.5% to 1.2720, with both pairs breaking above key resistance levels. Recent employment indicators have painted a mixed picture, with job openings declining to 8.1 million and continuing jobless claims rising to 1.86 million, their highest level in six months. The dollar index dropped 0.6% to 101.20, marking its lowest level in two weeks. Market participants are pricing in a 65% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut by December, up from 45% last week. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD targeting 1.0850 resistance, while GBP/USD eyes the 1.2750 level. EUR/GBP remained stable at 0.8510. Traders should monitor Thursday's ADP employment data for additional clues about labor market health before Friday's pivotal NFP release.
EURUSD GBPUSD EURGBP
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD technical outlook: Historical patterns signal potential bounce extension

EUR/USD technical analysis suggests the pair may extend its recent bounce based on historical price patterns and key technical levels. The pair has shown resilience after testing major support zones, with momentum indicators pointing to potential upside continuation. Historical data reveals similar bounce patterns have led to sustained recoveries in 70% of cases over the past five years. The analysis also covers GBP/USD showing consolidation patterns, USD/JPY maintaining bearish momentum after failing at the 200-day moving average, and AUD/USD displaying mixed signals. Key resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.1150, coinciding with the 100-day moving average, while support holds at 1.1050. A break above resistance could target 1.1200 psychological level. Traders should watch for confirmation through increased volume and positive momentum oscillator readings before positioning for extended gains.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD faces pressure as Goldman projects weak NFP at +60K for Friday

The US dollar remains under selling pressure ahead of Friday's crucial Non-Farm Payrolls report, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a disappointing +60K job additions for August, well below consensus expectations. The investment bank anticipates the unemployment rate to climb to 4.3%, reflecting continued deterioration in labor market conditions. Average hourly earnings are expected to match estimates at +0.3% month-over-month. Goldman notes that seasonal negative bias in August's initial prints could push the actual figure even lower, potentially intensifying dollar weakness. This projected softness in employment data reinforces market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with traders pricing in increased probability of aggressive monetary easing. Major dollar pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD could see upward momentum if the data disappoints, while USD/JPY may test recent support levels. The weak jobs outlook suggests the Fed's pivot toward easier monetary policy may accelerate.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/JPY breaks down after 200-day MA rejection signals bearish reversal

USD/JPY has entered a bearish phase after failing to break above the crucial 200-day moving average at 147.50, triggering a technical breakdown that has pushed the pair down 0.8% to 146.20. The rejection at this key resistance level confirms selling pressure and suggests further downside potential. Technical indicators show bearish divergence on the RSI and MACD crossing below its signal line, reinforcing the negative outlook. The analysis also notes EUR/USD maintaining a constructive bias above 1.1000. For USD/JPY, immediate support lies at 145.80 (previous week's low), with a break potentially accelerating losses toward 145.00 psychological support. Resistance now sits at 146.80, with the failed 200-day MA at 147.50 acting as a strong ceiling. The bearish reversal pattern suggests yen strength may persist amid risk-off sentiment.
USDJPY EURUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
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