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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Friday, September 12, 2025

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News Statistics for Friday, September 12, 2025

15
Total Articles
1
Bullish
8
Bearish
6
Neutral

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Archive date: Friday, September 12, 2025

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nasdaq.com

Dollar Climbs with T - note Yields

The dollar index today is up by +0.10% on support from higher T-note yields. However, today’s rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high has curbed some liquidity demand for the dollar. Comments today from Fed Chair Powell today were neutral for the dollar.
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD weakens as UMich sentiment drops to 55.4, inflation expectations rise

The US dollar faced selling pressure following the University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment index, which fell sharply to 55.4 from 58.2 previously, significantly below the 58.0 forecast. The disappointing sentiment data was compounded by rising inflation expectations, with the 5-year outlook jumping to 3.9% from 3.5%, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Current conditions remained relatively stable at 61.2 versus 61.3 expected, while future expectations plummeted to 51.8 from 54.9 anticipated. The deteriorating consumer confidence suggests weakening economic momentum, which could influence the Fed's rate trajectory. Major dollar pairs showed immediate reactions, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD gaining ground as traders reassessed dollar positions ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Technical indicators point to further dollar weakness if support levels fail to hold.
EURUSD GBPUSD DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

Major FX Pairs Face Volatility as Global Rate Cut Expectations Shift

Interest rate expectations have undergone significant revisions this week, with markets pricing in 71 basis points of Fed cuts by year-end, substantially higher than other major central banks. The ECB shows minimal easing expectations at just 4 bps, while the BoE and BoC anticipate 9 bps and 43 bps respectively. This divergence is creating notable pressure on USD pairs, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD likely to face headwinds as rate differentials narrow. The RBA and RBNZ show moderate easing expectations at 30-38 bps, potentially weakening AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Conversely, the BoJ remains the outlier with 16 bps of hikes expected, supporting JPY strength across major pairs. Looking toward 2026, cumulative easing expectations reach 145 bps for the Fed versus just 10 bps for the ECB, suggesting long-term dollar weakness. Traders should monitor upcoming central bank communications for potential shifts in these expectations.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
financefeeds.com

EUR/USD declines as Fed rate cut expectations shift on mixed signals

EUR/USD experienced downward pressure during Thursday's session as traders recalibrated Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following Wednesday's inflation data. The pair retreated from recent highs as market participants processed conflicting signals ahead of the crucial FOMC decision. US inflation figures came in line with expectations, maintaining uncertainty about the Fed's policy stance, while rising jobless claims added another layer of complexity to the monetary policy outlook. The European Central Bank's decision to hold rates steady provided limited support for the euro, with officials expressing cautious optimism about the eurozone economy. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD testing key support levels, with immediate resistance at the 1.1100 psychological mark. The mixed fundamental backdrop suggests continued volatility as traders await clearer directional cues from central bank communications and upcoming economic releases.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
financefeeds.com

USD weakens broadly as ECB holds steady, US inflation meets expectations

The US dollar declined across major pairs following a combination of steady ECB policy and in-line US inflation data that reinforced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, citing improving eurozone conditions, which supported the euro's relative strength. US CPI data matched forecasts while jobless claims unexpectedly increased, adding to evidence of cooling labor markets and supporting dovish Fed bets. EUR/USD capitalized on the dollar weakness, breaking above key technical levels as traders positioned for potential Fed policy easing. The greenback's broad-based retreat extended to other major pairs, with commodity currencies particularly benefiting from the risk-on sentiment. Market positioning suggests further dollar weakness possible if upcoming Fed communications maintain a dovish tone, with traders closely monitoring support levels across major USD pairs.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCAD USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY: BOJ warns weak yen fuels inflation risks, intervention likely

USD/JPY remains elevated near 147.50 as former Japanese FX official Toyoo Gyoten highlights growing inflation concerns from the weakening yen. The Bank of Japan faces increasing pressure to address currency weakness that threatens to import inflation into the economy. Japan's core CPI has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for consecutive months, primarily driven by higher import costs from the depreciating yen. Market participants are closely monitoring the 148.00 psychological level, where previous intervention occurred. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, with RSI above 70 on the daily chart. The Ministry of Finance has intensified verbal warnings, suggesting potential intervention if the yen weakens beyond 150.00. Traders should prepare for increased volatility and possible sharp reversals if Japanese authorities act. The upcoming BOJ policy meeting could signal a shift toward normalization, potentially supporting the yen.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD targets 1.1100 on ECB-Fed policy convergence expectations

EUR/USD has gained 0.25% to trade at 1.1075, driven by expectations of narrowing policy divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve. Markets price in a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, while the ECB maintains its hawkish stance with inflation at 2.6%. European economic data shows resilience, with German industrial production rising 0.3% month-over-month. The pair broke above the key 1.1050 resistance level, triggering fresh buying interest. Technical momentum indicators remain bullish, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day MA. Immediate resistance lies at 1.1100, followed by 1.1150. Support levels are established at 1.1050 and 1.1020. The dollar index weakened 0.2% to 101.50, providing additional tailwind for the euro. Traders anticipate continued euro strength if upcoming US CPI data shows further disinflation.
EURUSD DXY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD consolidates as European markets open, DXY holds above 101.50

The US dollar index maintains a neutral stance at 101.55 as European trading commences, with major pairs showing minimal movement. EUR/USD trades flat at 1.1070, while GBP/USD hovers near 1.3150 amid thin pre-data flows. Asian session saw limited price action with USD/JPY stuck in a 147.30-147.60 range. Market participants await key economic releases, including German factory orders and UK services PMI data. The dollar's recent resilience stems from better-than-expected US labor market indicators, tempering aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. Technical analysis shows the DXY trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting an imminent breakout. Immediate resistance sits at 101.80, while support holds at 101.20. Volatility remains subdued with implied volatility indicators near monthly lows, indicating potential for sharp moves once catalysts emerge.
DXY EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

AUD/USD, NZD/USD face resistance as Fed rate cut expectations peak

AUD/USD retreated 0.4% to 0.6720 and NZD/USD dropped 0.5% to 0.6180 as aggressive Fed easing bets reach saturation. Markets have fully priced in 100 basis points of cuts through 2025, limiting further dollar weakness. Australian employment data disappointed with only 15.9K jobs added versus 25K expected, pressuring the Aussie. New Zealand's business confidence index fell to -28, highlighting economic headwinds. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD rejected at the 0.6750 resistance level, with the 200-day moving average acting as a ceiling. NZD/USD failed to sustain moves above 0.6200, confirming bearish momentum. US 10-year yields rose 5 basis points to 3.85%, supporting dollar strength against commodity currencies. Both pairs face additional pressure from China's slowing growth concerns. Near-term support levels are 0.6680 for AUD/USD and 0.6150 for NZD/USD.
AUDUSD NZDUSD DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD weakens as traders price in 75bps Fed cuts by year-end

The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 101.85 as traders increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts following concerning labor market data. Weekly initial jobless claims jumped to their highest level since October 2021, reaching 258,000 versus expectations of 230,000, signaling accelerating job market weakness. While Wednesday's CPI data showed inflation cooling to 2.9% year-over-year, the employment figures took precedence in driving market sentiment. Fed funds futures now price in nearly three 25-basis-point rate cuts by December 2025, up from two cuts priced earlier this week. Major USD pairs reflected this weakness, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.0920 and GBP/USD advancing to 1.2780. Technical indicators suggest further dollar weakness possible, with the DXY approaching key support at 101.50. Traders should monitor upcoming NFP data and Fed communications for confirmation of this dovish repricing.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

Asia-Pacific FX sees muted trading amid thin news flow

Asian currency pairs experienced subdued volatility during Friday's trading session, with major pairs confined to tight ranges amid limited economic catalysts. USD/JPY held steady near 142.50, while AUD/USD consolidated around 0.6680 levels. The absence of significant data releases kept traders sidelined, with most awaiting next week's Bank of Japan policy meeting and Australian employment figures. Regional equity markets showed mixed performance, with the Nikkei up 0.2% while Shanghai Composite declined 0.3%. Currency volumes remained below average, typical for end-of-week Asian sessions without major announcements. NZD/USD showed slight weakness, dipping 0.1% to 0.6120 on residual concerns about New Zealand's economic outlook. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of weekend risk events and Monday's Chinese industrial production data, which could provide fresh directional cues for Asia-Pacific currencies.
USDJPY AUDUSD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/JPY faces pressure as Japan expands Russia-related export restrictions

USD/JPY trading remains under scrutiny as Japan's Trade Ministry announced expanded export restrictions targeting entities in China, Turkey, and UAE as part of ongoing sanctions against Russia's Ukraine invasion. The measures include restrictions on 6 Chinese entities, 2 Turkish entities, and 1 UAE entity, signaling Japan's continued alignment with Western sanctions despite maintaining its energy interests. This development follows Japan's earlier announcement to lower the price cap on Russian oil imports, demonstrating Tokyo's delicate balancing act between international obligations and domestic energy security. The yen could see modest support from these geopolitical developments, particularly if risk-off sentiment emerges in Asian markets. Technical levels show USD/JPY resistance at 147.50 with support around 146.80. Traders should monitor how these sanctions impact broader Asia-Pacific trade flows and whether China responds to Japan's restrictions, which could influence regional currency dynamics.
USDJPY CNHJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
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