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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Friday, August 1, 2025

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News Statistics for Friday, August 1, 2025

10
Total Articles
4
Bullish
4
Bearish
2
Neutral

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Archive date: Friday, August 1, 2025

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Forexlive

Why are jobs revised and is there a better way? I think so. It starts with the data.

Now that Pres. Trump has fired the person in charge of the BLS employment report, Axios wrote an article that outlines the general BLS process to the jobs release. Here is the down and dirty without getting too much into the weeds:Release timing: The Bureau of Labor Statistics , a nonpartisan agency under the Labor Department, releases the monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m.
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

EUR/USD breaks key averages - deeper correction ahead?

EUR/USD has broken below critical moving averages, declining 0.4% to 1.0780 as technical selling pressure intensifies. The pair has breached both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, triggering algorithmic selling and stop-loss orders. This technical breakdown follows recent ECB dovish signals and stronger US economic data that reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2025. The dollar index strengthened to 104.20, adding downward pressure on the euro. Technical indicators show oversold conditions developing, with RSI approaching 30. Immediate support lies at 1.0750 (January low), while resistance has formed at 1.0820 (former 200-day MA). A sustained break below 1.0750 could accelerate losses toward 1.0700, while any recovery attempts will likely face selling pressure near the broken moving averages. Traders should monitor upcoming Eurozone inflation data for potential catalysts.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/CAD Soars on Tariff Threats, BoC Rate Cut Risk Looms

USD/CAD has surged to multi-year highs near 1.4350, gaining 2.8% over the past week as Trump's tariff threats and diverging monetary policies weigh heavily on the Canadian dollar. The threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian exports has intensified selling pressure, while the Bank of Canada's dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause. Canada's economic vulnerability is evident with GDP growth slowing to 1.2% and inflation falling below the 2% target. Market participants are pricing in a 70% probability of a BoC rate cut at the next meeting, which could push USD/CAD toward the 1.4500 psychological level. Technical indicators show the pair breaking above the 1.4300 resistance with strong momentum. The combination of trade tensions, monetary policy divergence, and weak Canadian fundamentals suggests continued CAD weakness ahead, with immediate support at 1.4250.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

US NFP Preview: Market Positioned for 185K Jobs, Distribution Key

Markets are bracing for Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report with consensus expecting 185,000 new jobs for July, though forecast distribution reveals significant uncertainty. The range of estimates spans from 140K to 230K, with the majority clustered between 170K-200K, suggesting potential for outsized market reactions if data deviates significantly. A stronger-than-expected print above 220K could reinforce dollar strength and push major pairs like EUR/USD below 1.0800 support. Conversely, a disappointing sub-150K reading might trigger dollar weakness and fuel rate cut speculation. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%, while average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% MoM. Given the Federal Reserve's data-dependent stance and recent hawkish pause, this NFP report carries extra weight for determining near-term monetary policy expectations and forex positioning across major pairs.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
thestockmarketwatch.com

Global Markets Eye Heatwave Impact, Trade Tensions Escalate

European markets face multiple headwinds as an approaching heatwave threatens agricultural output and energy demand, potentially impacting EUR crosses. The extreme weather event could strain power grids and boost energy prices, adding to existing inflationary pressures that the ECB is combating. Meanwhile, escalating US-China trade tensions are creating risk-off sentiment, benefiting safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. Tech stock warnings from major US companies have triggered equity market volatility, with spillover effects into forex markets as investors reassess risk exposure. The combination of climate-related economic disruption, geopolitical tensions, and equity market weakness is creating a complex trading environment. EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.0820, while USD/JPY has retreated to 149.50 as yen buying intensifies. Traders should monitor commodity currencies closely as agricultural and energy market disruptions could significantly impact AUD, CAD, and NZD valuations.
EURUSD USDJPY EURJPY USDCHF AUDUSD USDCAD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD Falls 0.8% on Fed Hawks, USD/JPY Drops on BoJ Inflation Shift

EUR/USD has declined 0.8% to 1.0790 following the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause, with officials signaling rates may remain elevated longer than anticipated. The Fed's emphasis on persistent inflation above 3% has strengthened dollar demand across the board. Meanwhile, USD/JPY plummeted 1.2% to 148.80 after the Bank of Japan surprised markets by revising its inflation outlook upward and hinting at potential policy normalization. The BoJ's shift represents a significant departure from ultra-loose policy, with Governor Ueda suggesting negative rates could end by year-end. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD breaking below the 1.0800 psychological support, targeting 1.0750 next. USD/JPY faces strong support at 148.50, with a break potentially accelerating losses toward 147.00. The diverging central bank stances are reshaping major pair dynamics, with the dollar benefiting against European currencies while losing ground to the increasingly hawkish yen.
EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD AUDUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD Breaks 1.2650 Support, Bearish Pattern Targets 1.2500

GBP/USD has accelerated its decline, breaking below crucial 1.2650 support to trade at 1.2620, down 0.6% on the day and 2.1% for the week. The confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart projects a downside target near 1.2500, representing another 120 pips of potential losses. Dollar strength continues to dominate as US yields rise following hawkish Fed commentary, while UK economic data disappoints with manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.8. The Bank of England's cautious stance amid slowing growth has undermined sterling support. Technical indicators show RSI entering oversold territory below 30, suggesting a potential bounce, though the broader trend remains firmly bearish. Immediate resistance now sits at the broken 1.2650 level, with 1.2700 as the next major hurdle. Traders are positioning for continued pound weakness, with stop-losses clustered above 1.2680 potentially accelerating any corrective bounce.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/CAD rallies as Fed cut expectations fade, tariff fears mount

USD/CAD surged 0.6% to 1.4350, reaching a two-month high as reduced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and escalating tariff tensions bolstered the US dollar. Markets have scaled back Fed easing bets following robust US labor market data, with futures now pricing only 25 basis points of cuts for 2025. The Canadian dollar faces additional pressure from potential US tariff threats, which could significantly impact Canada's export-dependent economy. Oil prices declining 2% to $78.50/barrel further weakened the commodity-linked CAD. The dollar index climbed to 104.50, reflecting broad USD strength. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD breaking above the 1.4300 resistance level, opening the path toward 1.4400. Support has formed at 1.4280 (previous resistance turned support). Traders are positioning for continued CAD weakness unless oil prices recover or tariff concerns ease.
USDCAD DXY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY, USD/CHF Eye Breakout Ahead of Key US Payrolls Data

USD/JPY and USD/CHF are testing critical resistance levels as dollar bulls position for potential breakouts ahead of Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report. USD/JPY has consolidated near 150.50, approaching the psychological 151.00 resistance, while USD/CHF hovers around 0.9050, threatening to breach the 0.9100 level. The US Dollar Index has gained 0.4% this week, supported by resilient economic data and hawkish Fed expectations. Markets are pricing in a 185,000 job addition for January, with unemployment expected to remain at 4.1%. A stronger-than-expected payrolls figure could accelerate dollar strength and confirm breakouts in both pairs. Technical indicators show bullish momentum building, with RSI readings above 60 for both pairs. Key support levels stand at 149.80 for USD/JPY and 0.9000 for USD/CHF. Traders should watch for volatility around the employment release, as disappointing data could trigger profit-taking and test these support zones.
USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/CAD & USD/CHF spike on Trump's aggressive tariff threats

USD/CAD surged 1.2% to 1.4350 and USD/CHF jumped 0.9% to 0.9180 following President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs of 35% on Canadian imports and 39% on Swiss goods. The aggressive trade rhetoric sent shockwaves through forex markets during Friday's Asian session, with both CAD and CHF weakening significantly against the greenback. The Canadian dollar faced additional pressure from concerns over energy sector impacts, while the Swiss franc's safe-haven appeal diminished amid trade uncertainty. Technical indicators show USD/CAD breaking above the 1.4300 resistance level with momentum targeting 1.4400, while USD/CHF cleared the 0.9150 barrier. Traders are positioning for continued volatility as markets assess the likelihood of actual tariff implementation and potential retaliatory measures. The moves mark a significant shift in North American trade dynamics and could trigger broader risk-off sentiment across G10 currencies.
USDCAD USDCHF
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
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