AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Forexlive

Jul 16, 2025

Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 17 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: Finnhub

financemagnates.com

Jul 16, 2025

ATFX Taps Joshua Dentrinos as CEO of Prop Trading Arm ATFunded

The company launched the prop trading arm last year.

USDJPY

Source: Marketaux

financefeeds.com

Jul 16, 2025

Bloomberg to Add EBS FX Trades to Benchmarks in Data Deal with CME

Bloomberg is beefing up its FX benchmark offerings by pulling in live transaction data from EBS Market, the electronic trading platform owned by CME Group.

USDJPY

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 16, 2025

USD weakens as Senator warns Powell firing would hurt US credibility

The US dollar faced selling pressure following Senator Tillis's stark warning that firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would undermine US economic credibility. The senator's comments come amid reports of GOP support for potential Fed leadership changes, creating uncertainty in forex markets. Dollar index futures retreated 0.2% as traders reassessed Fed independence risks and potential policy disruption. The political uncertainty adds to existing dollar headwinds from mixed economic data and speculation about the Fed's rate trajectory. Market participants are increasingly concerned that political interference with the Fed could damage the dollar's reserve currency status and trigger capital outflows. Technical indicators show the DXY approaching key support at 104.50, with a break below potentially accelerating dollar weakness across major pairs. Traders should monitor political developments closely as any concrete moves against Powell could spark significant dollar volatility.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF AUDUSD USDCAD NZDUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

financefeeds.com

Jul 16, 2025

Global FX Market Summary: Escalating Trade Tensions and Tariffs, FED, ECB 16 July 2025

US tariff hikes spur global trade tension and inflation, while Fed resists political pressure to cut rates, unlike dovish ECB stance.

GBPUSD

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 16, 2025

Oil inventories data impacts USD/CAD as EIA reports mixed results

The EIA oil inventory report shows mixed results with crude inventories expected to decline by 0.552M barrels, a sharp reversal from the previous week's 7.07M barrel build. Distillate inventories are forecast to increase by 0.199M barrels after last week's 0.825M drawdown, while gasoline stocks are projected to fall by 0.952M barrels. These mixed inventory levels could create volatility in oil prices, directly impacting the Canadian dollar given Canada's significant oil export economy. USD/CAD traders are closely monitoring these figures as oil price movements typically show strong inverse correlation with the CAD. A larger-than-expected crude draw could support oil prices and strengthen CAD, potentially pushing USD/CAD lower from current levels. The data release comes amid broader concerns about global oil demand and supply dynamics, making this inventory report particularly significant for forex traders focused on commodity currencies.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jul 16, 2025

GBP/USD holds steady near 1.3100 after UK inflation beats expectations

GBP/USD maintained stability around 1.3100 following hotter-than-expected UK inflation data that reinforced expectations for Bank of England policy tightening. UK CPI rose more than forecast, suggesting persistent price pressures that could prompt the BoE to maintain its hawkish stance longer than previously anticipated. The pound initially spiked 0.4% on the inflation release before consolidating gains as traders digested the implications for UK monetary policy. Against the yen, GBP/JPY advanced to test resistance near 198.50, benefiting from the inflation surprise and risk-on sentiment. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD facing immediate resistance at 1.3150, with support established at 1.3050. The inflation data strengthens the case for further BoE rate hikes, potentially widening the UK-US yield differential in sterling's favor. Traders should watch for any BoE commentary on the inflation outlook and prepare for potential volatility around upcoming UK economic releases.

GBPUSD GBPJPY

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Jul 16, 2025

GBP/USD surges as UK inflation exceeds expectations significantly

GBP/USD has rallied sharply following hotter-than-expected UK inflation data, with the pair gaining momentum during the European session. The UK Consumer Price Index came in significantly above forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may need to maintain its hawkish stance on monetary policy. This inflation surprise has prompted traders to reassess rate differential dynamics between the UK and US, with markets now pricing in a higher probability of sustained BoE rates. The pound's strength was broad-based, gaining against most major currencies as the inflation print exceeded both headline and core measures. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum building, with GBP/USD breaking above key resistance levels. The data strengthens the case for GBP outperformance in the near term, particularly if UK inflation remains sticky while other major economies see cooling price pressures. Traders should monitor upcoming BoE communications for policy guidance.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

forexcrunch.com

Jul 16, 2025

USD/JPY holds firm as Fed rate cut expectations diminish sharply

USD/JPY remains elevated as diminishing Federal Reserve rate cut expectations maintain the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan. Markets have significantly reduced bets on Fed easing following recent economic data, keeping the yield gap that favors USD/JPY intact. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Fed's higher-for-longer narrative, providing fundamental support for the pair. Current market pricing suggests the Fed may delay rate cuts well into 2025, while the BoJ shows no urgency to normalize policy despite recent inflation gains. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY consolidating near multi-month highs, with strong support from the carry trade dynamic. The persistent rate differential continues to attract yield-seeking flows into USD/JPY positions. Traders should monitor any shifts in either central bank's policy stance, as narrowing rate expectations could trigger significant unwinding of long USD/JPY positions built on carry trade strategies.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

forexcrunch.com

Jul 16, 2025

USD/CAD retreats from peaks as traders assess US-Canada inflation gap

USD/CAD has pulled back from recent highs as traders evaluate diverging inflation trends between the United States and Canada. The pair's retreat suggests market participants are weighing the relative pace of disinflation in both economies, with implications for respective central bank policies. Recent Canadian inflation data showed continued moderation, potentially giving the Bank of Canada more room to maintain its pause or even consider future easing. Meanwhile, US inflation remains stickier, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts. The pair found resistance near key technical levels, prompting profit-taking after its recent advance. Oil prices also factor into USD/CAD dynamics, with stable crude levels providing some support for the Canadian dollar. Near-term direction will likely depend on upcoming economic releases from both countries, particularly employment and inflation metrics that could shift central bank expectations and influence the interest rate differential driving the pair.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 16, 2025

EUR/USD rises as Eurozone trade surplus beats expectations at €16.2B

EUR/USD gained 0.15% to 1.0842 following stronger-than-expected Eurozone trade balance data for May. The trade surplus expanded to €16.2 billion, significantly exceeding the forecast of €14.0 billion and the upwardly revised prior reading of €15.1 billion. This improvement reflects robust export performance across the monetary union, particularly in manufacturing goods, providing support for the euro amid concerns about regional economic growth. The positive data reinforces the European Central Bank's cautious stance on monetary policy, as healthy trade flows help offset domestic demand weakness. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing resistance at 1.0850, with the 50-day moving average at 1.0835 providing immediate support. A sustained break above 1.0850 could open the path toward 1.0880, while failure to hold current levels may see a retest of 1.0820. Traders await Thursday's ECB meeting minutes for further policy direction clues.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jul 16, 2025

USD/JPY breaks above 200-EMA as Japan election uncertainty weighs on yen

USD/JPY surged 0.8% to 158.45, clearing the key 200-period exponential moving average at 157.80 as political uncertainty ahead of Japan's upcoming election weakens the yen. The breakthrough marks a significant technical development, with the pair now trading at its highest level in three weeks. Market participants are positioning for potential policy continuity concerns, as election outcomes could impact the Bank of Japan's gradual normalization path. The yen's weakness is compounded by widening US-Japan yield differentials, with the 10-year spread hovering near 350 basis points. Technical momentum indicators turned bullish, with RSI climbing above 60 and MACD generating a buy signal. Immediate resistance lies at 159.00, coinciding with the June high, while the broken 200-EMA now acts as support. A decisive move above 159.00 could accelerate gains toward 160.00, though election results may introduce volatility.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 16, 2025

GBP/USD breaks key trendline support, signals potential further decline

GBP/USD fell 0.5% to 1.2680 after breaking below a critical ascending trendline that had provided support since early June. The technical breakdown suggests growing bearish momentum, with the pair now trading below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The sterling's weakness reflects mounting concerns over UK economic growth, with recent PMI data showing contraction in manufacturing activity. Additionally, expectations for Bank of England rate cuts have increased following softer inflation readings. The trendline break opens the door for a test of 1.2650 support, where the 200-day moving average converges with horizontal support. Below that level, 1.2600 becomes the next major target. Resistance is now seen at the broken trendline near 1.2720, with any recovery attempts likely to face selling pressure. The daily RSI has dropped below 40, confirming bearish momentum as traders position for further pound weakness.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 16, 2025

USD strength continues as traders raise bar for bearish dollar bets

The US Dollar Index climbed 0.4% to 104.25, extending its recent rally as traders become increasingly reluctant to bet against the greenback despite mixed economic signals. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0835, while GBP/USD fell to 1.2675, reflecting broad-based dollar strength. The shift in sentiment comes as resilient US economic data and persistent inflation concerns support expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Market positioning data shows speculators reducing short dollar positions, with net shorts falling to their lowest level in six weeks. EUR/GBP remains range-bound near 0.8550, suggesting synchronized weakness in European currencies. Technical analysis reveals the Dollar Index approaching resistance at 104.50, a break of which could trigger acceleration toward 105.00. Support holds at 103.80, aligned with the 20-day moving average. The higher bar for dollar bears reflects growing recognition that Fed rate cuts may be further delayed than previously anticipated.

EURUSD GBPUSD EURGBP

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 16, 2025

Mixed US CPI data sparks volatile forex moves across major pairs

Confusing market reactions followed the latest US CPI release, with major currency pairs experiencing whipsaw price action as traders struggled to interpret the mixed inflation signals. USD/JPY initially spiked to 158.20 before retreating to 157.85, while USD/CAD dropped 0.3% to 1.3640 on the data. The headline CPI came in below expectations at 3.1% year-over-year versus 3.3% forecast, but core inflation remained sticky at 3.4%. EUR/CAD jumped to 1.4780 as the Canadian dollar outperformed on oil price strength. Bond yields displayed erratic behavior, with the 10-year Treasury yield first falling then reversing higher. The Nasdaq 100 futures swung between gains and losses, reflecting uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's reaction to the data. Technical levels across major pairs are being tested, with USD/JPY support at 157.50 and resistance at 158.50. The mixed signals suggest continued volatility ahead as markets await clearer inflation trends.

USDJPY USDCAD EURCAD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 16, 2025

USD mixed as CPI data fails to clarify Fed's policy direction

The US Dollar Index showed mixed performance following CPI data that left markets uncertain about the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory amid ongoing tariff concerns. The inflation reading provided little clarity on whether the Fed will maintain its current pause or consider rate adjustments in coming meetings. GBP/USD particularly benefited from dollar uncertainty, with the pound gaining ground as traders reassess relative central bank stances. The ambiguous CPI print has left questions about potential tariff impacts on future inflation unanswered, adding another layer of complexity to Fed decision-making. Market participants remain divided on the Fed's next move, with some expecting extended pause while others anticipate policy shifts if economic conditions change. Technical levels for major USD pairs suggest consolidation as traders await clearer signals. The lack of definitive direction from the CPI data means markets will closely scrutinize upcoming Fed communications and economic indicators for policy clues.

GBPUSD DXY

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 16, 2025

GBP/USD surges as UK inflation exceeds forecasts, dampening BOE cut hopes

GBP/USD jumped 0.4% to 1.2980 following stronger-than-expected UK inflation data that reduced expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. June CPI accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year, surpassing the 3.4% forecast and previous reading. Core CPI also surprised higher at 3.7% versus 3.5% expected, while services inflation remained sticky at 4.7%, above the 4.6% consensus. The data significantly exceeds even the highest analyst forecasts, with core CPI matching the most bullish prediction. Markets had priced in 53 basis points of BOE easing through year-end before the release, but August cut probability has now diminished considerably. While two rate cuts remain possible across the three meetings following August, the persistently high inflation readings suggest the BOE may need to maintain its hawkish stance longer than anticipated. Sterling found immediate support at 1.2920 with resistance emerging near 1.3000 psychological level.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Finnhub

Forexlive

Jul 16, 2025

GBP/USD awaits UK inflation data amid BOE rate cut expectations

GBP/USD trades cautiously around 1.2970 ahead of today's UK inflation release, with markets anticipating key data that could influence Bank of England policy decisions. Services inflation is expected to moderate to 4.5% year-on-year from 4.7%, which would support growing expectations for BOE rate cuts. While headline and core inflation figures are projected to remain similar to May's levels, persistent food price uncertainties add complexity to the outlook. The pound has shown limited movement in early trading as investors await confirmation of the cooling services sector inflation. Technical indicators suggest immediate support at 1.2950 with resistance at 1.3000. A softer-than-expected services inflation reading could pressure sterling below the 1.2950 support level, while any upside surprise might challenge the psychological 1.3000 barrier. Traders are closely monitoring this data release as it will likely shape market expectations for the timing and pace of BOE monetary policy easing in the coming months.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Finnhub

Forexlive

Jul 16, 2025

USD/CNH falls as Morgan Stanley, UBS boost China 2025 GDP forecasts

USD/CNH declined 0.2% to 7.2850 in early Asian trading as major investment banks upgraded their China growth outlook for 2025. Morgan Stanley and UBS both raised their GDP forecasts, citing expectations of stronger fiscal stimulus and improving domestic consumption trends. The yuan strengthened across the board, with EUR/CNH dropping 0.15% and GBP/CNH falling 0.18%. The upgrades come amid growing optimism about China's economic recovery and potential policy support measures from Beijing. Market participants are now closely watching for any signals from the People's Bank of China regarding monetary policy adjustments. Technical indicators show USD/CNH testing support at 7.2800, with a break below potentially targeting 7.2600. The improved growth outlook could attract foreign capital inflows, providing additional support for the yuan. Traders should monitor upcoming Chinese economic data releases and any policy announcements that could validate these upgraded forecasts.

USDCNH EURCNH GBPCNH

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub