AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Forexlive

Jul 17, 2025

Trade ideas thread - Friday, 18 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: Finnhub

Forexlive

Jul 17, 2025

US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Climbs to 6.75% Amid Housing Market Pressure

The US 30-year mortgage rate has increased to 6.75% from 6.72%, according to Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey. This marks a continued rise from the 2025 low of 6.62% recorded in April, though rates remain below January's peak of 7.04%. The mortgage market has been consolidating within a 6.10% to 7.22% range throughout most of the year, with the exception of a brief spike during September-November. Higher mortgage rates are pressuring housing affordability and dampening demand, which could influence Federal Reserve policy considerations. The persistent elevation in borrowing costs reflects ongoing inflation concerns and market expectations for sustained higher interest rates. For forex traders, elevated mortgage rates typically support USD strength as they signal tighter financial conditions and potentially higher yields on US assets.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

EUR/USD Rally Stalls at 2025 Highs as Traders Lock in Profits

EUR/USD has encountered significant profit-taking pressure near key 2025 highs, causing the recent rally to lose momentum. The pair had been advancing on broad dollar weakness and improving eurozone economic sentiment, but traders are now booking gains at technically significant resistance levels. The pullback suggests the market may be entering a consolidation phase after the strong upward move, with traders reassessing positions ahead of upcoming economic data releases. Technical indicators show the pair remains in an overall uptrend despite the current retracement, with immediate support emerging at previous resistance levels. Market participants are closely monitoring European Central Bank communications and US economic indicators for direction. The profit-taking activity reflects healthy market dynamics rather than a fundamental shift in the bullish EUR/USD narrative, though sustained moves above 2025 highs may require fresh catalysts.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 17, 2025

USD Shows Resilience Despite Trump-Powell Tensions, Business Inventories Flat

The US dollar maintained its upward trajectory during European trading hours, shrugging off political tensions between former President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. US business inventories remained unchanged at 0.0% for May, matching market expectations and indicating stable inventory levels. The inventory-to-sales ratio showed modest tightening, suggesting businesses are managing stock levels efficiently relative to sales activity. This data point reinforces the view of a balanced US economy, neither overheating nor contracting sharply. The dollar's resilience demonstrates market focus on economic fundamentals rather than political noise. Technical indicators suggest continued dollar strength across major pairs, with USD index holding above key support levels. Traders are positioning for upcoming retail sales data which could provide further direction for dollar pairs in the near term.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

Dow Jones Gains on Strong US Retail Sales as Netflix Earnings Loom

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has posted gains following stronger-than-expected US retail sales data, bolstering confidence in consumer spending resilience. The upbeat economic release has provided support for risk assets while creating mixed signals for forex markets. EUR/USD and GBP/USD showed varied reactions as traders balanced dollar-positive economic strength against risk-on sentiment that typically weighs on the safe-haven currency. The FTSE 100 also participated in the global equity rally, reflecting improved market sentiment. Attention now turns to Netflix earnings after the bell, which could influence tech sector sentiment and broader market direction. For forex traders, the retail sales strength reinforces the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, potentially supporting the dollar in the medium term. However, immediate currency movements remain subdued as markets await additional catalysts and corporate earnings results.

EURUSD GBPUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

GBP/USD: Will It Continue the 5th Wave?

Market Analysis by covering: British Pound US Dollar, US Dollar Index Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com

GBPUSD

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Jul 17, 2025

AUD/USD Drops on Weak Australian Employment Data, Eyes US Retail Sales

AUD/USD experienced significant selling pressure following disappointing Australian employment figures, though specific data points were not detailed in the source. The pair's weakness reflects growing concerns about the Australian labor market's health, potentially limiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance. Market participants are now focused on upcoming US retail sales data, which could further impact the pair's direction. The Australian dollar's underperformance against a broadly stronger US dollar suggests risk-off sentiment and reduced commodity currency appeal. Technical analysis indicates the pair is testing key support levels, with a break below potentially accelerating losses. The combination of weak domestic data and anticipated strong US economic indicators creates a bearish outlook for AUD/USD. Traders should monitor the US retail sales release closely as it could confirm or reverse the current downtrend.

AUDUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

GBP/USD Tumbles as UK Unemployment Hits 4-Year High

GBP/USD faced sharp selling pressure as UK unemployment data revealed joblessness rising to a 4-year high, significantly weakening sterling's appeal. The deteriorating labor market conditions raise concerns about the UK economy's resilience and could influence the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions going forward. The pound's weakness was exacerbated by broad US dollar strength, creating a double headwind for the currency pair. This employment data marks a significant shift in UK economic momentum, potentially signaling broader economic challenges ahead. Technical analysis suggests GBP/USD has broken below key support levels, with further downside likely if the psychological 1.3000 level fails to hold. The combination of weak domestic fundamentals and strong dollar momentum creates a bearish environment for sterling. Traders should watch for any BoE commentary on the employment situation as it could provide near-term direction.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Very Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

USD/JPY Rally Pauses as Overbought Conditions Signal Potential Pullback

USD/JPY's relentless rally has finally stalled as technical indicators flash overbought warnings, suggesting the pair may be due for a correction. The yen pair has been on an extended upward trajectory, driven by persistent dollar strength and Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy stance. However, current price action shows signs of exhaustion, with momentum indicators reaching extreme levels that historically precede pullbacks. The pause in the rally provides an opportunity for traders to reassess positions as the market digests recent gains. Key resistance levels are being tested, and failure to break higher could trigger profit-taking activities. Despite the technical warning signs, fundamental factors still favor dollar strength, limiting potential downside moves. Traders should monitor for any intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials, as excessive yen weakness often prompts verbal warnings that can cause sharp reversals.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 17, 2025

USD mixed as Fed rate cut expectations shift post-inflation data

The US dollar showed mixed performance as markets repriced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following recent inflation reports. Initially, the Fed pricing turned hawkish after CPI data, reducing year-end cut expectations to 45 basis points, but subsequent PPI figures reversed this sentiment, returning to pre-inflation levels. The Bank of England saw similar volatility, with hot UK CPI initially reducing cut expectations before stabilizing at 51 basis points by year-end. Other major central banks show varied expectations: RBA leads with 66 basis points of cuts priced, while the ECB shows only 24 basis points. The Bank of Japan remains the outlier with 16 basis points of hikes expected. This repricing reflects ongoing uncertainty about the global disinflation trajectory and central bank policy divergence, creating volatile trading conditions across major currency pairs as traders adjust positions based on shifting monetary policy outlooks.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCHF USDJPY

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

EUR/USD faces pressure from ECB concerns over tariffs and FX strength

EUR/USD is experiencing downward pressure as European Central Bank officials express growing concerns about potential US tariffs and euro strength impacting the region's economic outlook. The ECB's previously comfortable position is being threatened by the combination of trade policy uncertainties and currency appreciation that could dampen export competitiveness. Market participants are closely monitoring developments as the stronger euro could complicate the ECB's inflation targeting efforts, potentially forcing a more dovish stance. The US dollar index has shown resilience, supported by expectations of continued economic outperformance and uncertainty around global trade relations. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at recent highs, while support levels are being tested as traders position for potential ECB policy adjustments. The currency pair's direction will likely depend on upcoming ECB communications and any concrete developments regarding US trade policy, with downside risks mounting if tariff threats materialize.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

EUR/USD weakens as strong dollar sentiment dominates trading

EUR/USD continues to face selling pressure as robust US dollar sentiment drives the pair lower in recent trading sessions. The greenback's strength stems from a combination of factors including resilient US economic data, expectations of sustained higher interest rates, and safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties. The euro struggles to find support as traders price in diverging monetary policy paths between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD testing key support levels, with momentum indicators suggesting further downside potential if current levels fail to hold. Market participants are closely watching upcoming US economic releases and Federal Reserve communications for directional cues. The persistent dollar strength reflects broader market confidence in the US economy's relative outperformance compared to the eurozone. Traders should monitor critical support zones and be prepared for continued volatility as the currency pair navigates through this period of dollar dominance.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Jul 17, 2025

Dollar gains momentum in European session amid short squeeze

The US dollar found fresh buying interest during early European trading hours as a short squeeze accelerated following yesterday's brief pullback. Major currency pairs saw the greenback strengthen across the board, with EUR/USD dropping back below key technical levels and GBP/USD reversing earlier gains. The move appears to be driven by position adjustments as traders who bet against the dollar were forced to cover shorts, amplifying the upward momentum. Market participants noted thin liquidity conditions exacerbated the price action, leading to sharper moves than fundamental factors would typically warrant. Technical indicators suggest the dollar's near-term uptrend remains intact, with resistance levels from earlier this week now acting as support. The squeeze highlights ongoing market positioning dynamics and suggests traders remain cautious about fighting the dollar's strength. Further gains could materialize if key resistance levels are breached, potentially triggering additional short covering.

EURUSD GBPUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

USD/CHF tests 0.90 as SNB-Fed policy divergence widens

USD/CHF approaches the psychologically important 0.90000 level as diverging monetary policies between the Swiss National Bank and Federal Reserve drive the pair higher. The Swiss franc weakens amid expectations that the SNB will maintain its accommodative stance with only 11 basis points of cuts priced by year-end, while the Fed shows more hawkish positioning. Recent US dollar strength, supported by resilient economic data and higher yield differentials, continues to pressure the franc despite its traditional safe-haven status. Technical analysis reveals USD/CHF trading near multi-month highs, with the 0.90000 level representing a critical resistance point that could trigger further gains if breached. Market participants are closely monitoring SNB communications for any shift in policy stance that could alter the current dynamics. The widening interest rate differential between US and Swiss assets makes carry trades more attractive, potentially adding to franc selling pressure in the near term.

USDCHF

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

USD/JPY Consolidates After Extended Rally as Overbought Signals Emerge

USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase after a relentless rally pushed the pair into overbought territory on multiple timeframes. Technical indicators including the RSI above 70 and stretched positioning data suggest the pair may be due for a pullback or sideways movement. The pause comes as traders reassess the sustainability of the yen's weakness amid diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. USD/CHF and the Dollar Index have shown similar patterns, indicating broad dollar strength may be temporarily exhausted. Key resistance levels are being tested, with failure to break higher potentially triggering profit-taking. Despite near-term caution signals, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for USD/JPY given the wide interest rate differential. Traders are advised to monitor 145.00-146.00 as a critical range for determining the next directional move.

USDJPY USDCHF

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

EUR/USD pressured below key uptrend lines as technical resistance builds

EUR/USD remains under selling pressure, trading below critical uptrend lines that have supported the pair's recent advance. The currency pair has struggled to maintain momentum above these technical levels, suggesting potential weakness in the euro's near-term outlook. Technical analysis indicates the pair is facing resistance at the confluence of multiple uptrend lines, with failure to break above these levels potentially signaling a reversal in the recent bullish trend. Market participants are closely monitoring whether EUR/USD can reclaim these key technical levels or if the breakdown will accelerate selling pressure. The pair's inability to sustain gains above these trendlines reflects broader concerns about eurozone economic momentum relative to US dollar strength. Traders should watch for a decisive break below support at current levels, which could open the path toward lower targets, while any recovery above the trendlines would need to be accompanied by strong volume to confirm bullish continuation.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 17, 2025

European futures gain 0.8% catching up to US rally amid trade deadline focus

Eurostoxx futures advanced 0.8% in early European trading, with German DAX futures up 0.7% and UK FTSE futures adding 0.1%, as markets catch up to yesterday's late US rally following the Trump-Powell drama. European indices had closed lower yesterday, missing the recovery in US stocks that came after initial volatility surrounding reports of tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. The positive sentiment in European futures reflects stabilization in global risk appetite, with US futures also maintaining steady levels in Asian trading. Market attention is increasingly focused on the approaching August 1 deadline for US-EU trade negotiations, with investors hoping for a provisional trade agreement that could ease transatlantic tensions. Any breakthrough in trade talks could provide additional support for European equities and the euro, while failure to reach an agreement might renew pressure on risk assets and support safe-haven flows into the US dollar.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

forexlive.com

Jul 17, 2025

USD holds firm despite Trump-Powell tensions as market tests dollar strength

The US dollar maintains its recent gains despite yesterday's volatility triggered by reports that President Trump threatened to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The greenback showed resilience during the drama, with traders ultimately viewing the situation as noise rather than a fundamental shift in monetary policy outlook. The dollar index has held above key support levels, suggesting underlying strength remains intact despite the political uncertainty. Market participants appear confident that institutional safeguards would prevent any dramatic policy shifts, with the Fed's independence ultimately protected by legal framework. The dollar's ability to weather this political storm demonstrates continued investor confidence in US assets and monetary stability. Technical indicators show the dollar defending its recent breakout levels, with momentum indicators still favoring further upside. Traders are monitoring whether this resilience can translate into renewed buying pressure or if political uncertainties might eventually weigh on sentiment.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

USD/JPY drops on risk-off flows; AUD/USD plunges after weak employment data

USD/JPY declined sharply as risk-off sentiment drove investors toward the safe-haven yen, with the pair dropping from recent highs as market uncertainty increased. The yen's strength reflects growing caution among traders about global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, AUD/USD suffered significant losses following disappointing Australian employment data that missed expectations by a wide margin. The weak jobs report has raised concerns about the Australian economy's resilience and could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its dovish stance longer than anticipated. The Australian dollar's weakness was compounded by the broader risk-off environment, with commodity currencies particularly vulnerable during periods of market stress. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking below key support levels, potentially opening the path for further declines, while AUD/USD has fallen through multiple support zones. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data for potential catalysts that could either reinforce or reverse these moves.

USDJPY AUDUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Jul 17, 2025

AUD/USD Plunges as Australian Unemployment Surges to 2021 Highs

AUD/USD has tumbled sharply following the release of Australian employment data showing unemployment jumping to levels not seen since 2021. The deteriorating labor market conditions have sparked concerns about the Australian economy's resilience and potential Reserve Bank of Australia policy shifts. NZD/USD showed sympathy weakness, while AUD/NZD remained relatively stable as both Antipodean currencies faced pressure. The Dollar Index strengthened on the back of risk-off sentiment and flight to safety. The unemployment spike raises questions about the RBA's ability to maintain its hawkish stance, with markets now pricing in increased likelihood of rate cuts in 2025. Technical support at 0.6500 is being tested, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward 0.6400. The employment shock represents a significant fundamental shift for the Australian dollar's outlook.

AUDUSD NZDUSD AUDNZD

Sentiment: Very Negative

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 17, 2025

USD/JPY rises to 148.65 as dollar strengthens, Trump uncertainty persists

USD/JPY advanced 0.5% to 148.65 on Wednesday, marking a significant retest of recent resistance levels as the dollar gained strength across the board. The move higher reflects ongoing market uncertainty surrounding Trump administration policies, particularly regarding trade relations and Federal Reserve criticism. Trump's continued public disputes with Fed Chair Powell have added volatility to dollar pairs, with traders positioning defensively ahead of potential policy announcements. The yen's weakness also stems from diverging monetary policies, as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose stance while the Fed signals hawkish intentions. Technical indicators show USD/JPY approaching the 149.00 psychological resistance, with support established at 147.80. The pair's upward momentum could accelerate if it breaks above 149.00, potentially targeting 150.00. However, any escalation in geopolitical tensions or aggressive Trump rhetoric could trigger safe-haven yen buying.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Finnhub

thestockmarketwatch.com

Jul 17, 2025

AUD/USD drops on Australia unemployment surge, RBA rate cut imminent

AUD/USD declined sharply following Australia's unexpected jump in unemployment data, which has virtually guaranteed an RBA rate cut at the August meeting. The unemployment rate surge caught markets off-guard, intensifying pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to ease monetary policy despite holding steady at the previous meeting when cuts were widely anticipated. The Australian dollar weakened against its major counterparts as traders rapidly repriced rate expectations, with money markets now fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut next month. The RBA's previous hesitation to cut rates despite market expectations adds uncertainty to the current scenario, though deteriorating labor market conditions leave little room for further delays. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD testing support at 0.6650, with the next major level at 0.6620. A break below current support could accelerate losses toward 0.6600, while any RBA surprises could provide temporary relief rallies.

AUDUSD

Sentiment: Very Negative

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Jul 17, 2025

USD/JPY faces pressure as Japan warns against speculative FX moves

USD/JPY trading remains cautious following comments from Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki expressing concern over speculative movements in the foreign exchange market. The official emphasized the importance of currency stability reflecting economic fundamentals, suggesting heightened government attention to recent yen volatility. Japanese authorities continue monitoring how interest rate differentials affect domestic livelihoods, with the wide gap between Fed and BOJ rates keeping the yen under pressure. The comments signal potential intervention risk if USD/JPY extends gains beyond recent highs near 150.00. Market participants are closely watching for any concrete action from Japanese authorities, particularly verbal intervention escalation or actual market intervention. Technical levels show immediate resistance at 149.50, while support sits at 148.00. Traders should remain vigilant for sudden volatility spikes as Japanese officials increasingly voice concerns about excessive yen weakness impacting import costs and inflation.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

forexlive.com

Jul 17, 2025

USD/JPY climbs 0.5% to 148.65 amid Trump drama, palm oil duties rise

USD/JPY strengthened 0.5% to 148.65 on Wednesday, July 17, as the dollar gained momentum against the Japanese yen in a session marked by ongoing Trump administration uncertainty. The pair's advance reflects broader dollar strength despite continuous political drama surrounding trade policies and Federal Reserve criticism from President Trump. Markets remain on edge with Trump's unpredictable approach to geopolitics and monetary policy commentary creating volatile trading conditions. In commodity markets, Malaysia's decision to raise palm oil export duties added another layer of complexity to global trade dynamics, though direct forex impact remained limited. The USD/JPY move represents a significant retest of recent resistance levels, with traders eyeing the 149.00 psychological barrier. Technical momentum suggests further upside potential if the pair sustains above 148.50, while downside support sits at 147.80. Continued Trump-related headlines could inject additional volatility into yen crosses.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux