The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimate for the July–September quarter to $1.01 trillion.The revision reflects the impact of the recent debt ceiling suspension, which allowed for a $5 trillion increase. In response, the Treasury is accelerating bond issuance to replenish its cash holdings, aiming for an $850 billion balance by the end of September. For the fourth quarter, borrowing is projected to be lower at $590 billion.
Source: Finnhub
Forex markets are bracing for extreme volatility this week with multiple high-impact events scheduled across major currency pairs. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating near 104.50 ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, where markets are pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike. EUR/USD trades at 1.0820, with the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday potentially delivering another 50bp increase. GBP/USD hovers around 1.2650 as UK inflation data is expected to show continued pressure. JPY pairs remain volatile with USD/JPY testing 150.00 resistance amid Bank of Japan speculation. Technical indicators suggest heightened volatility with major pairs approaching key psychological levels. Traders should prepare for significant price swings and potential breakouts as central bank decisions could reshape the forex landscape for the remainder of Q3 2025.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The EUR/USD forecast shows a sudden decline in the euro after a trade deal between the US and the European Union.
EURUSD
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD declined 0.4% to 1.0820 during European trading as initial optimism over the US-EU trade agreement gave way to domestic backlash. The proposed 0% tariff framework faces resistance from EU member states, with Germany's industry association warning against normalizing such deals and France calling it merely temporary stability. EU's Sefcovic confirmed the tariff list remains open to additions, suggesting negotiations are incomplete. The dollar index strengthened 0.3% as traders reassessed the deal's viability. Meanwhile, US-China trade talks are set to begin in Stockholm, with reports indicating the US may ease technology export restrictions to secure an agreement. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing support at 1.0815, with resistance at 1.0865. The pair's near-term direction depends on further trade developments and upcoming ECB policy guidance.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD declined 0.4% to 1.0780 following the announcement of a comprehensive trade agreement between the European Union and United States. The deal, which removes tariffs on several key sectors and establishes new regulatory cooperation, has boosted dollar strength as markets anticipate increased US exports to Europe. The agreement particularly benefits US technology and agricultural sectors, potentially improving America's trade balance with the EU. Technical indicators show EUR/USD breaking below the 1.0800 psychological support level, with the next key support at 1.0750 (50-day moving average). The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 42, suggesting bearish momentum without being oversold. Traders are now focusing on this week's FOMC meeting, where a potential dovish hold could limit further euro losses. The trade deal's implementation timeline and its actual economic impact will be crucial for determining the pair's medium-term direction.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD experienced a sharp decline of 0.5% to 1.0765 as technical selling accelerated following the EU-US trade agreement announcement. The pair broke through multiple technical support levels, including the 200-hour moving average at 1.0795 and the ascending trendline from July's lows. Volume surged 40% above the 20-day average, confirming the bearish breakout. The trade deal has shifted market dynamics, with traders repositioning for potential dollar strength as reduced trade barriers favor US economic growth. Fibonacci retracement analysis shows the next major support at 1.0735 (38.2% retracement), while resistance has formed at the former support of 1.0800. The daily MACD has crossed into negative territory for the first time in two weeks, suggesting further downside potential. Short-term traders are targeting the 1.0700 psychological level, though oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart may trigger a brief consolidation before the next leg lower.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD fell 0.35% to 1.0825 in European morning trade as market participants digested the complexities of the recently announced US-EU trade agreement. The initial positive reaction reversed as concerns emerged about implementation challenges and domestic opposition within EU member states. The dollar index gained 0.25%, benefiting from safe-haven flows amid trade uncertainty. Technical analysis shows the pair breaking below the 1.0850 support level, with momentum indicators turning bearish. The 50-day moving average at 1.0810 provides immediate support, while resistance has formed at 1.0870. Traders are closely monitoring comments from EU officials regarding the deal's sustainability. Market positioning suggests further euro weakness if the trade agreement faces significant hurdles, with the next major support level at 1.0800 psychological barrier.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Currency markets experienced heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions and commodity price fluctuations dominated trading. The dollar index rose 0.2% to 104.50, supported by risk-off sentiment amid ongoing global trade negotiations. EUR/USD traded 0.25% lower at 1.0835, while GBP/USD held steady near 1.2650. Commodity currencies showed mixed performance, with AUD/USD declining 0.3% to 0.6480 as iron ore prices weakened, while USD/CAD gained 0.2% to 1.3520 despite firm oil prices. Gold's 0.5% rise to $2,045 provided support for CHF pairs. Market participants are positioning for potential shifts in monetary policy as central banks navigate inflation concerns and growth risks. Technical indicators suggest consolidation across major pairs, with traders awaiting clearer directional catalysts from upcoming economic data releases.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index (DXY) has strengthened to 103.50, showing bullish technical patterns across major forex pairs ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. EUR/USD remains under pressure at 1.0775, while GBP/USD struggles below 1.2600 resistance. USD/JPY has broken above 150.00, reaching three-month highs, as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose policy stance. AUD/USD faces headwinds at 0.6450, weighed down by concerns over Chinese economic growth. Technical indicators favor continued dollar strength, with the DXY above its 50 and 200-day moving averages. However, markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a dovish hold from the Fed, which could trigger a dollar reversal. Key levels to watch include EUR/USD support at 1.0750, GBP/USD resistance at 1.2650, and USD/JPY resistance at 150.80. Traders should prepare for potential volatility around Wednesday's FOMC statement and Chair Powell's press conference.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is experiencing increased volatility, trading in a 148.50-149.80 range as the yen faces competing macro forces. The pair gained 0.15% to 149.20 amid diverging monetary policy expectations between the Fed and BoJ. Technical analysis reveals key resistance at 150.00 psychological level, while support holds at 148.00. The yen's safe-haven appeal conflicts with Japan's ultra-loose monetary stance, creating trading opportunities. Upcoming tech earnings from Apple and Amazon could impact risk sentiment and influence the pair's direction. USD/CHF also shows similar patterns, trading 0.1% higher at 0.8920. Options market pricing suggests elevated implied volatility, with traders positioning for potential breakouts. Near-term catalysts include US GDP data and BoJ policy guidance, which could trigger moves beyond the current range.
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD opened with a small gap higher during Monday's Asian trading session, climbing 0.15% (16 pips) to 1.0865 following news of a breakthrough in EU-US trade negotiations. The currency pair benefited from improved risk sentiment after weekend reports confirmed progress on reducing tariffs on European exports, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors. The euro's gains were limited by thin liquidity typical of Asian hours, with major European and US markets closed. Technical indicators show the pair testing resistance at 1.0875, the previous week's high, while support remains firm at 1.0845. The modest gap suggests traders are cautiously optimistic but awaiting confirmation from European trading. With no major economic releases scheduled for Monday, the focus remains on trade headlines and whether the euro can sustain its gains when London markets open. A decisive break above 1.0875 could target the psychological 1.0900 level.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CNY is trading near 7.2850, showing signs of potential yuan strength as China's National Energy Administration announced plans to establish a unified national power market by year-end. This major infrastructure reform signals Beijing's commitment to economic modernization and energy security, potentially boosting investor confidence in Chinese assets. The initiative comes as authorities prepare for peak summer power demand, demonstrating proactive economic management. Market participants are closely watching how these reforms might enhance China's economic efficiency and attract foreign investment flows. Technical indicators suggest USD/CNY faces resistance at 7.3000, while support lies at 7.2700. A successful implementation of the power market reforms could strengthen the yuan further, particularly if it improves China's energy cost competitiveness and industrial productivity. Traders should monitor related policy announcements and their impact on China's economic outlook.
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
