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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, July 31, 2025

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News Statistics for Thursday, July 31, 2025

16
Total Articles
7
Bullish
5
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Archive date: Thursday, July 31, 2025

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Forexlive

Economic calendar Asia Friday, August 1, 2025 - second Chinese manufacturing PMI due today

The official PMIs we had from China for July, out yesterday, were disappointing:InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Chinese PMIs disappoint, BoJ on hold as expectedThe Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July is expected to remain in expansion but drip a touch lower from June. If you need an explanation on how the two PMIs differ and why they are both of value, I've popped it below .
Source: Finnhub
finance.yahoo.com

USD Index Hits 2-Month High on Strong US Labor Market Data

The US Dollar Index surged 0.23% to reach a fresh 2-month high, driven by robust US economic data revealing labor market resilience and persistent inflationary pressures. Today's employment figures showed stronger-than-expected job openings and wage growth, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its hawkish stance longer than previously anticipated. The combination of sticky price pressures and elevated labor costs suggests the Fed could delay any potential rate cuts, providing sustained support for the greenback. Technical indicators show the dollar index breaking above key resistance levels, with momentum indicators pointing to further upside potential. Major pairs including EUR/USD and GBP/USD faced selling pressure as traders repositioned for a stronger-for-longer dollar scenario. The data reinforces the divergence between US economic performance and other major economies, potentially extending the dollar's relative strength advantage through the summer months.
DXY EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/CAD extends 6-day rally, breaks above 100-day MA at 1.3853

USD/CAD has surged to 1.3853, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains and adding 278 pips from the July 23 low of 1.3575. The pair's impressive 2.05% rally has been driven by diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada, with markets pricing in potential BoC rate cuts amid softening Canadian economic data. The breakthrough above the key 100-day moving average at 1.3840 signals strong bullish momentum, attracting technical buyers to the market. Oil price weakness has further pressured the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, as WTI crude trades near monthly lows. Immediate resistance lies at 1.3870 (June high), while the newly conquered 100-day MA should provide support. A sustained break above 1.3870 could open the path toward the psychological 1.4000 level, making this a critical juncture for trend continuation.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/TRY and EMFX Carry Trade Analysis for August Trading

Emerging market FX carry trade opportunities are shifting focus for August, with particular attention on regional selection and risk-adjusted returns. The analysis covers major carry pairs including USD/TRY (Turkish Lira), alongside traditional funding currencies EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF. Turkish Lira remains attractive for carry traders despite elevated political risks, offering substantial yield differentials against major currencies. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue serving as preferred funding currencies due to their ultra-low interest rates and safe-haven status. Regional considerations highlight Latin American and Asian emerging markets as potential alternatives to Turkish exposure. Traders are advised to monitor central bank policies closely, as any shifts in monetary stance could rapidly alter carry trade dynamics. Risk management remains crucial given potential volatility spikes in emerging market currencies during global risk-off episodes.
USDTRY EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY jumps as BoJ's Ueda dampens rate hike expectations

USD/JPY has rallied sharply following Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's press conference, with the yen weakening across the board as immediate rate hike expectations diminished. The pair gained 0.8% to reach session highs near 153.50, reversing earlier losses after the BoJ maintained its ultra-loose policy stance. While inflation projections were revised higher, Ueda's cautious tone suggested the central bank remains in no rush to normalize policy, disappointing yen bulls who had positioned for a more hawkish shift. US futures maintained their positive momentum throughout the European session, adding to dollar strength. Technical indicators show USD/JPY breaking above the 153.00 resistance level, with next targets at 154.20 (July high). The divergence between Fed and BoJ policy paths continues to favor USD/JPY upside, though traders remain watchful for potential intervention risks above 155.00.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY rises as BoJ holds rates despite higher inflation outlook

USD/JPY advanced 0.6% to 153.20 after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, despite raising its inflation projections for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The central bank's updated forecasts show core CPI reaching 2.1% in FY2025 and 2.0% in FY2026, above its 2% target. However, the BoJ's cautious approach to policy normalization and emphasis on data dependence disappointed markets expecting a more aggressive tightening timeline. Governor Ueda hinted at potential future rate hikes but stressed the need to assess wage growth and consumption trends. The yen's weakness was broad-based, with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also posting gains. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY facing resistance at 153.80, while support has formed at 152.50. The policy divergence between the Fed's higher-for-longer stance and BoJ's gradual approach continues to underpin the pair's bullish bias.
USDJPY EURJPY GBPJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD Falls to Multi-Week Lows on Weak UK Data, Strong Dollar

GBP/USD has declined sharply to test multi-week lows near 1.2650, dropping 0.8% (105 pips) as disappointing UK economic data compounds pressure from broad dollar strength. UK Manufacturing PMI contracted to 47.2 in July, missing forecasts of 48.5, while consumer confidence plunged to -15, its lowest level since March. The pound's weakness accelerated after Federal Reserve Chair Powell's hawkish stance reinforced expectations for sustained higher US rates. Technical indicators show GBP/USD breaking below the key 1.2700 support level, with immediate support now at 1.2630 (June low). Resistance stands at 1.2720 (former support turned resistance). The bearish momentum suggests further downside toward 1.2600 psychological support is likely, especially if upcoming UK GDP data disappoints. Traders should monitor the Bank of England's response to weakening economic indicators.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD Faces Sustained Selling Pressure Below 1.0800 Support

EUR/USD continues its downward trajectory, trading at 1.0765 after falling 0.5% (55 pips) as persistent selling pressure undermines the euro. The US Dollar Index surged to 104.50, its highest level in three weeks, supported by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and robust US economic fundamentals. European economic concerns intensify with German industrial production showing unexpected weakness and ECB officials hinting at a potential pause in rate hikes. Technical analysis reveals EUR/USD has broken below the critical 1.0800 psychological support, with the next major support at 1.0730 (May low). Resistance now stands at 1.0800-1.0820 zone. The bearish momentum indicators and negative divergence on the daily RSI suggest selling pressure will likely persist. Traders are positioning for a potential test of 1.0700 if upcoming Eurozone inflation data disappoints market expectations.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY Rebounds as BOJ's Ueda Signals Cautious Rate Approach

USD/JPY has staged a recovery to 152.80, gaining 0.4% (60 pips) following Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's dovish press conference remarks. Ueda stated there is "no clear prescription" for dealing with the challenges of raising interest rates, dampening expectations for aggressive policy normalization. The yen's weakness was exacerbated by the contrast with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, widening the US-Japan yield differential. Markets had anticipated a more definitive timeline for BOJ policy adjustments, but Ueda's cautious tone suggests the ultra-loose monetary policy will persist longer than expected. Technical indicators show USD/JPY bouncing from support at 152.20, with immediate resistance at 153.20 (weekly high). The pair's positive momentum shift indicates potential for a retest of the 154.00 psychological level if US yields continue rising. Traders should monitor upcoming Japanese inflation data for further policy clues.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

US Dollar Rallies on Powell's Hawkish Stance, DXY Hits 3-Week High

The US Dollar Index has surged to 104.50, marking a three-week high after gaining 0.7% following Federal Reserve Chair Powell's unexpectedly hawkish commentary. Powell emphasized the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation "until the job is done," reinforcing expectations for rates to remain higher for longer. Markets have repriced the probability of rate cuts in 2025, with futures now showing only 50 basis points of easing versus 75 basis points previously expected. The dollar's strength was broad-based, with EUR/USD falling to 1.0765 and GBP/USD dropping below 1.2700. Technical analysis shows the DXY breaking above key resistance at 104.20, opening the path toward 105.00. The bullish momentum is supported by strong US economic fundamentals and widening interest rate differentials. Traders are positioning for continued dollar strength ahead of next week's US inflation data.
EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD, AUD/USD Face August Headwinds from Seasonal Patterns

Historical seasonality data suggests renewed downside pressure for GBP/USD and AUD/USD entering August, with both pairs showing consistent weakness during this month over the past decade. GBP/USD, currently at 1.2680, has declined an average of 1.2% in August over the last 10 years, while AUD/USD at 0.6540 typically falls 1.5% during the same period. The seasonal weakness coincides with typical summer liquidity drains and risk-off positioning ahead of September's heavy economic calendar. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD approaching critical support at 1.2650, while AUD/USD tests the 0.6520 level. EUR/USD and USD/JPY also exhibit August volatility patterns, though less pronounced. The combination of seasonal factors, current technical setups, and fundamental headwinds suggests traders should prepare for potential continuation of recent downtrends. Risk management becomes crucial as reduced liquidity can amplify price movements.
GBPUSD AUDUSD EURUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD eyes 1.0800 as German CPI data looms, inflation concerns persist

EUR/USD trades near 1.0785, showing limited movement as markets await German state CPI readings later today. Germany's inflation continues hovering above the ECB's 2% target, with June's headline CPI at 2.0% year-over-year while core inflation remains elevated at 2.7%. July's headline inflation is forecast to ease to 1.9%, potentially offering some relief to ECB policymakers. The persistent core inflation above target complicates the ECB's monetary policy stance, limiting scope for rate cuts. Technical indicators show EUR/USD consolidating within a tight 1.0770-1.0800 range, with immediate resistance at 1.0800 and support at 1.0750. A softer-than-expected German CPI reading could pressure the euro below 1.0750, while any upside surprise might push the pair toward 1.0820. Traders remain cautious ahead of the data release, with the inflation dynamics crucial for ECB policy expectations.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

WTI Crude Oil futures drop to $69.84 on technical short signals

WTI Light Crude Oil futures have declined to $69.84, trading below yesterday's close as technical indicators triggered short positions. The oil market's weakness reflects multiple technical factors that prompted bearish positioning overnight. While specific technical levels weren't detailed in the source, the move suggests key support levels have been breached, validating the short trade setup. Oil prices directly impact commodity currencies like CAD, NOK, and RUB, with lower oil prices typically pressuring these currencies against majors. The decline in crude prices could strengthen USD/CAD as the Canadian dollar weakens on lower energy export values. Traders should monitor the $70.00 psychological level as potential resistance, while further downside could target support zones around $68.50-69.00. The bearish oil outlook may continue to weigh on commodity-linked forex pairs in upcoming sessions.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/JPY holds steady at 153.20 as BoJ maintains policy, China PMI weighs

USD/JPY remains unchanged at 153.20 following the Bank of Japan's decision to keep monetary policy on hold as widely expected. The yen showed limited reaction despite disappointing Chinese PMI data that typically weighs on risk sentiment. China's manufacturing PMI fell below expectations, signaling continued economic weakness in Japan's largest trading partner. The BoJ's decision to maintain its ultra-loose policy stance contrasts sharply with other major central banks, keeping downward pressure on the yen. Market participants noted muted volatility across Asian FX pairs despite the weak Chinese data. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY trapped between 152.80 support and 153.50 resistance, with a neutral bias prevailing. The pair's next directional move likely depends on upcoming US economic data and any shifts in global risk sentiment. Traders should monitor the 154.00 psychological level as a key upside target.
USDJPY USDCNY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY slides as yen strengthens ahead of crucial BoJ decision

The Japanese yen has strengthened notably against major currencies in thin overnight trading, with USD/JPY declining ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy announcement expected between 02:30-03:30 GMT. The move reflects heightened speculation about potential policy adjustments from the BoJ, as traders position defensively before the central bank statement. Thin liquidity conditions have amplified the yen's gains, creating sharper price movements than typical trading sessions would allow. The market remains highly sensitive to any hints of policy normalization from the BoJ, which has maintained ultra-loose monetary policy for years. A hawkish surprise could trigger further yen appreciation, potentially pushing USD/JPY below key support levels. Conversely, maintaining the status quo might reverse current yen strength. Traders should prepare for increased volatility around the announcement time, with potential ripple effects across JPY crosses including EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.
USDJPY EURJPY GBPJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/CNH faces pressure as China tightens precious metals oversight

USD/CNH is trading near 7.2850, showing marginal weakness as China announces stricter oversight of precious metals and gemstone transactions starting Friday. The new regulations require reporting of all high-value cash purchases in these markets, signaling Beijing's intensified efforts to monitor capital flows and strengthen financial system transparency. This move could impact dollar demand in China as authorities seek to curb potential money laundering and underground banking activities often facilitated through precious metals trading. The policy aligns with China's broader financial reform agenda and may reduce unofficial dollar circulation channels. Technical indicators show USD/CNH consolidating below the 7.30 resistance level, with immediate support at 7.2750. Traders should monitor how these regulations affect capital flow patterns and yuan stability, as tighter controls typically support the local currency by reducing capital flight opportunities through alternative investment channels.
USDCNH
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
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