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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Tuesday, July 29, 2025

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News Statistics for Tuesday, July 29, 2025

16
Total Articles
1
Bullish
12
Bearish
3
Neutral

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Archive date: Tuesday, July 29, 2025

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Forexlive

AUD/USD breaks below key MAs as sellers take control near 0.6530

AUD/USD has declined below critical technical levels, trading near 0.6520 as sellers push the pair beneath the 100 and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart. These key MAs, clustered between 0.6528 and 0.6540, now act as resistance, signaling a shift in near-term momentum. The bearish tone intensifies as price action remains confined within the established downward channel, with recent movements respecting this technical formation. Traders are monitoring whether the pair can reclaim the MA resistance zone, which would be necessary to neutralize the bearish outlook. Immediate support lies at the channel bottom near 0.6500, while a break below could accelerate losses toward 0.6480. The technical setup suggests sellers maintain control as long as prices stay below the 0.6540 resistance cluster, with the channel structure providing a clear framework for short-term trading opportunities.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD weakens as JOLTS job openings miss forecast at 7.437M

The US dollar index declined 0.2% following the release of June JOLTS job openings data, which came in at 7.437 million versus the 7.500 million estimate. The vacancy rate dropped to 4.4% from 4.6% last month, while the quits rate fell to 2.0% from 2.1%, signaling cooling labor market conditions. Arts, entertainment, and recreation sectors saw notable declines with 42,000 fewer openings, while government sectors also contracted. The softer-than-expected data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause or slow its tightening cycle, putting downward pressure on the dollar. Major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD saw modest gains of 0.15-0.20% in immediate reaction. Technical indicators suggest the DXY could test support at 101.50 if weakness persists. Traders are now focusing on upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls data for further confirmation of labor market softening.
EURUSD GBPUSD DXY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
rttnews.com

Markets trade mixed ahead of Fed decision Wednesday

Global financial markets are displaying mixed sentiment as traders position cautiously ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path has created a wait-and-see approach across major currency pairs, with forex markets showing limited directional conviction. Corporate earnings reports are adding another layer of complexity to market dynamics, influencing risk sentiment and currency flows. Traders are particularly focused on upcoming economic data releases that could shape central bank decisions and currency valuations. The cautious tone reflects broader market concerns about monetary policy divergence among major central banks. With the Fed decision looming, volatility remains subdued but could spike following the announcement. Market participants are closely monitoring any signals about future rate trajectories, which could significantly impact dollar pairs and cross-currency positioning in the near term.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
risk.net

FX options skew shifts wildly amid fragile geopolitical conditions

Foreign exchange options markets are experiencing unprecedented volatility in calls-versus-puts demand as dealers struggle to balance positions amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The options skew, measuring relative demand between calls and puts, has been flipping dramatically in response to geopolitical events, creating challenges for market makers. This instability is particularly pronounced in safe-haven pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CHF, where implied volatility has surged 15-20% above historical averages. Risk reversals in major pairs show extreme readings, with EUR/USD 25-delta risk reversals swinging from -0.5 to +0.8 within days. The fragile market conditions have led to wider bid-ask spreads and reduced liquidity, especially during Asian trading hours. Options dealers report difficulty in maintaining delta-neutral positions, potentially amplifying spot market moves. Traders should expect continued volatility spikes and possible gap moves in major pairs as geopolitical uncertainties persist.
EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD faces critical week ahead of Fed decision - breakout imminent

The US dollar index (DXY) is consolidating near the 102.50 resistance level as markets await this week's Federal Reserve policy decision. EUR/USD remains range-bound between 1.0820-1.0890, while GBP/USD tests support at 1.2850 amid UK economic concerns. USD/JPY shows strength above 150.00, supported by diverging monetary policies between the Fed and BoJ. USD/CHF holds steady near 0.8650 as safe-haven flows remain balanced. Technical analysis reveals the DXY is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting an imminent breakout. A hawkish Fed stance could propel the index above 103.00, while any dovish surprise might trigger a decline toward 101.00 support. Key resistance levels across major pairs align with the Fed decision, making this a pivotal week. Traders are advised to monitor Fed Chair Powell's press conference closely for directional cues on rate trajectory and economic outlook.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF DXY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD drops to 9-week low at 1.2810 on UK food inflation surge

GBP/USD plummeted 0.8% to 1.2810, marking a 9-week low as UK food inflation unexpectedly jumped, raising concerns about persistent price pressures. The pair broke below the crucial 1.2850 support level following data showing UK food prices rose at their fastest pace in six months. This development complicates the Bank of England's policy outlook, as elevated inflation may require sustained higher interest rates despite economic growth concerns. The dollar index strengthened 0.3% to 102.80, adding to sterling's woes. Technical indicators show GBP/USD entering oversold territory with RSI at 28, suggesting a potential bounce, though the trend remains bearish. Immediate support lies at 1.2800 (psychological level), with resistance now at 1.2850 (former support turned resistance). Traders are positioning for potential BoE hawkishness at next week's meeting, though growth concerns may limit sterling's recovery potential.
GBPUSD DXY
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD Plunges to 5-Week Low on US-EU Trade Deal Impact

EUR/USD has declined sharply to five-week lows near 1.0780, dropping 0.8% (90 pips) as markets digest the implications of a new US-EU trade agreement. The deal, which reportedly favors US exports, has strengthened dollar demand while pressuring the euro across the board. Technical indicators show EUR/USD breaking below key support at 1.0820, with momentum indicators pointing to further downside potential. The pair faces immediate support at 1.0750 (June low), while resistance now sits at 1.0820 (former support turned resistance). Market positioning data reveals traders are increasingly bearish on the euro, with speculative shorts rising to multi-month highs. The trade deal's terms could continue weighing on EUR/USD sentiment, especially if European growth concerns intensify. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for potential policy responses to the trade dynamics.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD Long Positions Under Stress as Trade Deal Pressures Mount

EUR/USD long positions are being stress-tested as the pair trades near 1.0785, down 0.7% amid ongoing US-EU trade deal fallout. The agreement has shifted market dynamics, with the dollar gaining strength against major currencies. EUR/GBP has also weakened to 0.8420, reflecting broad euro selling pressure. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD testing critical support levels, with the 50-day moving average at 1.0765 now in focus. The DAX index has fallen 1.2%, highlighting concerns about European export competitiveness under the new trade framework. Sentiment indicators suggest increasing bearish momentum, with RSI dropping below 40. Fund flow data reveals significant euro liquidation by institutional investors. The stress on long positions could trigger further stop-loss selling if 1.0750 support breaks. Traders should consider tightening risk management as volatility increases.
EURUSD GBPUSD EURGBP
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

EUR/USD Tests 5-Week Lows at 1.0775 on Trade Deal Concerns

EUR/USD continues its descent to five-week lows at 1.0775, extending losses by 0.85% (95 pips) as the US-EU trade deal aftermath dominates market sentiment. The dollar remains broadly bid, with the DXY index climbing 0.6% to 104.20. European traders express concern over the trade agreement's potential impact on eurozone competitiveness, fueling euro selling across the board. Technical indicators show EUR/USD breaking below the 200-day moving average at 1.0790, a bearish signal that could accelerate declines. Immediate support lies at 1.0750, with a break potentially opening the path to 1.0700. Market participants note the absence of ECB officials' comments on the trade situation, adding to uncertainty. Options market data shows increased demand for EUR/USD puts, reflecting growing bearish sentiment among professional traders.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

Oil Bears Target $66.74 as WTI Crude Maintains Downward Pressure

WTI crude oil is trading at $66.74, down 0.07% from the previous close, reinforcing bearish momentum according to tradeCompass technical analysis. The minimal decline suggests consolidation near current levels, with sellers maintaining control of the market direction. Technical indicators point to potential short-selling opportunities at current prices, though some traders may wait for a retracement toward $66.71, where high-volume trading areas could attract price action. The Point of Control (POC) and Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) deviations serve as magnetic zones due to collective market participant beliefs. This bearish stance in oil markets could strengthen commodity currencies like CAD and NOK while potentially weakening oil-importing nations' currencies. The narrow trading range indicates market indecision ahead of potential catalysts, with immediate support at $66.50 and resistance near $67.00.
USDCAD USDNOK
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

AUD/USD Slides Below 0.6500 Ahead of Key Economic Week

AUD/USD has weakened to 0.6485, falling 0.5% (55 pips) as traders position defensively ahead of a pivotal week featuring RBA rate decisions and crucial economic data releases. The US Dollar Index strengthened to 104.15, adding pressure on commodity currencies. Markets are pricing in a 65% probability of an RBA rate hold at Tuesday's meeting, though recent inflation data has increased hawkish expectations. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD breaking below the psychological 0.6500 support level, with the next target at 0.6450 (July low). The pair faces resistance at 0.6520 (previous support). Chinese PMI data due this week could significantly impact AUD sentiment given Australia's trade exposure. Risk-off sentiment in global markets has also weighed on the Australian dollar. Traders should monitor upcoming Australian employment and Chinese manufacturing data for directional cues.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD faces pressure as Treasury borrowing jumps to $1.007T in Q3

The US dollar showed weakness across major pairs following the Treasury's announcement of significantly increased borrowing plans for Q3 2025, jumping to $1.007 trillion from previous estimates made in April. This substantial increase in debt issuance comes after months of constrained borrowing due to debt ceiling limitations earlier in the year. The announcement has raised concerns about increased Treasury supply potentially weighing on bond prices and yields, creating headwinds for the dollar. Market participants are now awaiting tomorrow's quarterly refunding announcement for additional details on auction sizes and maturity composition. The increased borrowing needs reflect ongoing fiscal pressures and could influence Federal Reserve policy considerations. Technical indicators suggest USD index testing support at 103.50, with potential further weakness if Treasury yields continue to adjust to the supply dynamics.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCAD USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

Asia-Pacific FX trades in tight ranges amid quiet summer session

Currency markets in the Asia-Pacific region experienced exceptionally narrow trading ranges during Tuesday's session, with major pairs confined to tight consolidation patterns. USDJPY held within a 30-pip range around 153.20, while AUDUSD fluctuated minimally near 0.6550. The subdued price action reflects typical summer trading conditions with reduced liquidity and absence of significant economic catalysts. Regional equity markets showed mixed performance, providing little directional bias for currency movements. Traders appeared reluctant to establish new positions ahead of key risk events later in the week, including central bank decisions and economic data releases. Technical analysis indicates major pairs are respecting recent support and resistance levels, suggesting range-bound conditions may persist. The lack of volatility presents challenges for momentum-based strategies while potentially offering opportunities for range traders.
USDJPY AUDUSD NZDUSD EURJPY GBPJPY AUDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

XAU/USD targets $4,000 on Fed dovishness and dollar weakness

XAU/USD could reach $4,000/oz by end-2026, according to Fidelity International, representing a potential 60% gain from current levels near $2,500. The investment firm cites an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve stance, anticipated dollar weakness, and sustained central bank gold purchases as primary catalysts. Multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson revealed that some portfolios have doubled their gold allocations to 10% following the recent pullback from April's record highs above $3,500. The bullish outlook reflects growing expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025-2026, which historically correlates with gold strength and dollar weakness. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue their aggressive gold accumulation strategy, providing consistent demand support. Technical analysis suggests immediate resistance at $2,600, with support established at $2,450. A sustained break above $2,600 could accelerate momentum toward the psychological $3,000 level, making the $4,000 target increasingly feasible for long-term positioned traders.
XAUUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
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