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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Thursday, July 10, 2025

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News Statistics for Thursday, July 10, 2025

18
Total Articles
6
Bullish
3
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9
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Archive date: Thursday, July 10, 2025

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Forexlive

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: initial jobless claims tick lower; Daly talks rate cuts

US weekly initial jobs claims 227K versus 235K expectedFed's Daly: It's time to think about adjusting the interest rateFed's Waller: Fed has long way to go to shrinking size of Balance SheetFed Waller: Stablecoins are just a new method for making a paymentMore from Waller: Tariffs increase prices one time, central banks can look through thatJamie Dimon: I would price in a 40-50% chance of higher US interest ratesFed's Musalem: The outlook is for inflation to increase going forward due to...
USD EUR GBP JPY AUD
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD Gains as 30-Year Treasury Yields Hit 4.889% in Strong Auction

The US dollar index advanced 0.22% as Treasury yields climbed following a robust 30-year bond auction at 4.889% yield. The $22 billion auction saw strong demand with a negative tail of 0.1 basis points, better than the 6-month average of -0.3 basis points. Direct bidders took 27.4% (vs 23.1% average), while indirect bidders absorbed 59.78% (vs 63.0% average), suggesting solid but slightly reduced foreign demand. The auction grade of B indicates above-average performance, supporting dollar strength across major pairs. Higher yields are reinforcing the greenback's appeal as traders reassess Fed rate cut expectations for 2025. Technical resistance for the dollar index stands at 106.50, with support at 105.80. The yield dynamics suggest continued dollar support in the near term, particularly against low-yielding currencies like the JPY and CHF.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
finance.yahoo.com

USD Strengthens on Positive Labor Market Data and Rising Yields

The dollar index rose 0.22% today, supported by encouraging US labor market indicators and climbing Treasury yields. Fresh employment data revealed unexpected strength in the US jobs sector, diminishing expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. The positive labor market momentum has pushed yields higher across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield advancing significantly. This yield differential is attracting flows into dollar-denominated assets, pressuring major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower. Market participants are recalibrating their Fed policy expectations, with the probability of near-term rate cuts declining. Technical analysis shows the dollar index breaking above key resistance at 106.00, targeting 106.50 next. The combination of robust employment figures and attractive yields suggests continued dollar strength, particularly if upcoming economic data confirms the labor market's resilience.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/Fed tensions escalate: Trump pushes for rate cuts amid inflation

USD volatility remains muted as President Trump intensifies pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, despite US inflation running above the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years. The dollar index holds steady near 105.50 as markets assess the political conflict's impact on monetary policy. Current economic conditions show robust growth with unemployment at 3.5% and GDP expanding at 2.8% annually, making rate cuts difficult to justify. The Fed maintains its hawkish stance, with futures pricing only a 15% probability of cuts before year-end. Technical indicators suggest USD consolidation between 105.00 support and 106.20 resistance. Trump's likely nomination of a dovish Fed chair replacement in May 2025 adds long-term uncertainty. Traders should monitor upcoming FOMC meetings for any shifts in rhetoric, though near-term policy changes appear unlikely given persistent inflationary pressures from proposed tariffs.
DXY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
rttnews.com

USD Eases as Fed Minutes Calm Hawkish Policy Fears

The US dollar retreated modestly as June FOMC meeting minutes alleviated concerns about an overly hawkish Federal Reserve stance. The minutes revealed a more balanced approach among policymakers, with several members acknowledging progress on inflation while maintaining data dependency. This tempered tone contrasted with recent hawkish market pricing, prompting a recalibration of rate expectations. Treasury yields pulled back from recent highs, reducing the dollar's yield advantage against major currencies. EUR/USD found support above 1.0800, while GBP/USD stabilized near 1.2700. The minutes suggested the Fed remains patient on policy adjustments, waiting for clearer economic signals before committing to a specific path. Near-term dollar direction will likely depend on upcoming inflation and employment data. Technical indicators show the dollar index testing support at 105.80, with a break below potentially accelerating the correction toward 105.50.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flat as tariff concerns dominate trading

Major currency pairs trade sideways in early Asian session with EUR/USD at 1.0825 (-0.05%), GBP/USD at 1.2450 (-0.02%), and USD/JPY at 155.20 (+0.01%). Markets remain cautious amid ongoing tariff discussions between the US and major trading partners, creating uncertainty about global trade flows. The dollar index hovers near 105.40 as traders await clearer policy direction. European currencies show resilience despite trade tensions, supported by steady economic data from the eurozone. Technical analysis reveals EUR/USD trapped between 1.0800 support and 1.0850 resistance, while GBP/USD tests 1.2430 support. USD/JPY maintains its range-bound pattern between 154.80-155.50. With no major economic releases scheduled, sentiment remains driven by geopolitical headlines. Traders should watch for any concrete tariff announcements that could trigger breakouts from current ranges.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexcrunch.com

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700 Amid UK Tariff Discussions

GBP/USD maintained stability around 1.2700 as traders monitor ongoing UK-US tariff negotiations and await tomorrow's crucial UK GDP data. Sterling showed resilience despite broader dollar strength, supported by expectations of positive UK economic growth figures. Market participants are closely watching developments in trade discussions, which could significantly impact UK export competitiveness and sterling valuations. The pair found support at 1.2680, with resistance emerging at 1.2730. Tomorrow's GDP release is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.3%, which could provide additional support for the pound if confirmed. Technical indicators suggest a neutral stance, with the pair trading within a tight range. A break above 1.2730 could target 1.2780, while disappointing GDP data might pressure the pair toward 1.2650 support. Traders remain cautious ahead of the data release and any tariff-related headlines.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

EUR/USD drifts lower as German CPI holds at 2.0%, FOMC divided

EUR/USD declined 0.2% to 1.0810 following confirmation that German CPI remained at 2.0% year-over-year in June, matching expectations but failing to provide upward momentum. The euro faces headwinds as ECB rate cut expectations persist, with markets pricing a 65% probability of a 25bp reduction by September. Meanwhile, FOMC minutes revealed a split committee, with three members favoring immediate cuts while four preferred maintaining current rates at 5.25-5.50%. The dollar index strengthened to 105.60 as diverging central bank paths become clearer. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing crucial 1.0800 support, with a break potentially opening the path to 1.0750. Resistance sits at 1.0840 (50-day MA). German economic resilience remains key for euro stability, though manufacturing PMI at 43.5 signals continued contraction. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for policy guidance.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD hits 2-week low at 1.2420 on UK fiscal concerns, tariffs

GBP/USD plummeted 0.8% to 1.2420, marking a two-week low as UK fiscal challenges and potential US tariffs weigh heavily on sterling. The UK budget deficit widened to £17.4 billion in May, exceeding forecasts and raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Markets now price a 40% chance of Bank of England rate cuts by year-end, up from 25% last week. Trump's tariff threats particularly impact the UK given its £184 billion annual trade relationship with the US. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD breaking below key 1.2450 support, with next targets at 1.2380 and 1.2350. The 200-day moving average at 1.2385 offers potential support. UK gilt yields rose 15 basis points to 4.35%, reflecting fiscal concerns. Sterling weakness may accelerate if upcoming UK retail sales disappoint or if concrete tariff announcements emerge targeting British exports.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Gold rises to $2,035/oz on Trump tariffs, Fed uncertainty

Gold prices advanced 0.6% to $2,035 per ounce as Trump's escalating tariff threats and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty drive safe-haven demand. The precious metal benefits from a weakening dollar index at 105.35 and rising geopolitical tensions. EUR/USD trades at 1.0820 while USD/JPY holds at 155.10 as currency markets digest mixed signals. Trump's pressure on the Fed for rate cuts, despite inflation at 3.2%, creates monetary policy confusion that traditionally supports gold. Technical indicators show gold breaking above $2,030 resistance, targeting $2,050 next. The 50-day moving average at $2,015 now acts as support. Real yields declined to 2.1% from 2.3%, enhancing gold's appeal. With tariff implementation potentially sparking inflation while dampening growth, gold's hedge characteristics attract increased institutional interest. Traders should monitor Fed communications and concrete tariff announcements for further directional cues.
EURUSD USDJPY XAUUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

GBP/USD builds momentum for bullish reversal at key support zone

GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.2720, showing signs of potential bullish reversal after testing critical support levels. The pair has found buying interest near the 1.2700 psychological level, which aligns with the 50-day moving average, suggesting a possible pivot point for upward momentum. Sterling's resilience comes despite ongoing concerns about UK economic growth, with traders positioning ahead of upcoming UK inflation data expected next week. Technical indicators show oversold conditions on the daily RSI, supporting the case for a bounce. Immediate resistance lies at 1.2780, followed by the 1.2820 zone where the 200-day moving average converges. A sustained break above 1.2780 could trigger further gains toward 1.2850. However, failure to hold above 1.2700 support may expose the pair to deeper declines toward 1.2650. Traders are closely monitoring US dollar strength and any shifts in Bank of England rate expectations.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexcrunch.com

USD/CAD Pauses at 1.3650 as Treasury Yields Retreat

USD/CAD consolidated around 1.3650 as a sharp decline in US Treasury yields halted the dollar's recent rally against the Canadian currency. The 10-year yield dropped significantly in the previous session, reducing the dollar's yield advantage and prompting profit-taking in USD/CAD longs. The pair retreated from recent highs near 1.3700, finding support at the 50-day moving average around 1.3640. Canadian dollar strength was also supported by stable oil prices above $75/barrel, benefiting the commodity-linked currency. Technical indicators suggest the pair entered overbought territory during the recent rally, warranting a consolidation phase. Immediate resistance stands at 1.3680, while support lies at 1.3620. The near-term direction will likely depend on US yield movements and oil price dynamics. A sustained break below 1.3640 could signal further downside toward 1.3600, while a recovery in yields might reignite USD/CAD buying interest.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

Major FX pairs stuck in ranges as traders await tariff developments

Major currency pairs remained largely unchanged during European trading hours, with EUR/USD hovering near 1.0830 and GBP/USD around 1.2720. Market participants are exercising caution ahead of potential trade and tariff announcements that could significantly impact currency valuations. The lack of directional momentum reflects broader uncertainty about global trade policies and their implications for economic growth. USD/JPY continues to trade within a tight 155.20-155.80 range, while commodity currencies like AUD/USD and USD/CAD show minimal movement around 0.6580 and 1.3650 respectively. Trading volumes remain below average as investors await clearer signals on trade negotiations. Technical analysis shows most pairs trapped between key support and resistance levels, suggesting continued consolidation until a catalyst emerges. The subdued price action may persist until concrete developments on tariffs provide direction for currency markets.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD USDCAD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/USD dips as Italy industrial output contracts 0.9% vs +0.2% forecast

EUR/USD traded marginally lower at 1.0845, declining 0.1% (10 pips) following disappointing Italian industrial production data. Italy's industrial output contracted 0.9% year-over-year in the latest reading, significantly worse than the +0.2% growth economists had forecast and reversing the previous month's +0.1% gain. The month-over-month figure also disappointed, falling 0.7% against expectations of flat growth at 0.0%, down from the prior +0.9% expansion. While Italian industrial production is typically a volatile indicator with limited immediate market impact, the weak data adds to concerns about Eurozone economic momentum. The euro remains under pressure as traders await more significant economic releases later this week. Technical resistance for EUR/USD sits at 1.0880, while support emerges at 1.0820. The broader trend will likely depend on upcoming ECB policy signals and US economic data releases.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/BRL surges on Trump's 50% Brazil tariff threat; copper pairs volatile

USD/BRL spiked 2.8% to 5.95 during Asian trading hours after former President Trump confirmed plans for a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports if re-elected. The real weakened sharply as traders priced in potential trade war risks, pushing the pair to three-month highs. Trump also announced a separate 50% tariff on copper imports, triggering volatility in commodity-linked currencies. AUD/USD fell 0.4% to 0.6520 and USD/CLP jumped 1.2% as copper prices fluctuated on the news. The Chilean peso, heavily dependent on copper exports, bore the brunt of selling pressure. Market participants are reassessing emerging market exposure ahead of the 2024 US election, with Latin American currencies particularly vulnerable to protectionist rhetoric. Technical analysis shows USD/BRL targeting 6.00 psychological resistance, while support for risk-sensitive pairs like AUD/USD emerges near 0.6500. Traders should expect continued volatility in commodity currencies as election-related headlines dominate.
USDBRL AUDUSD USDCLP
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

EUR/GBP rises on France-UK nuclear pact amid European defense concerns

EUR/GBP has gained 0.2% to 0.8435 as markets digest the strategic defense agreement between France and the UK to coordinate nuclear deterrence strategies against major European threats. The unprecedented military cooperation announcement has sparked safe-haven flows into European assets, with the euro benefiting from France's central role in EU defense policy. Sterling faced headwinds despite UK involvement, as traders weighed potential defense spending implications and fiscal pressures. The geopolitical development comes amid heightened tensions in Eastern Europe and ongoing concerns about regional security. Technical indicators show EUR/GBP testing resistance at 0.8450, with support established at 0.8400. The pair's 50-day moving average at 0.8425 now acts as dynamic support. Traders are monitoring further diplomatic developments and potential NATO responses, which could drive additional volatility in European currency pairs throughout the week.
EURGBP
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

EUR/USD Rabobank targets 1.20 in 12 months amid ECB concerns

Rabobank has issued a bullish forecast for EUR/USD, projecting the pair to reach 1.20 within the next 12 months, representing a significant appreciation from current levels. This forecast suggests a potential 10-15% gain for the euro against the dollar, depending on current spot rates. The projection comes despite expectations that the European Central Bank will attempt to counter excessive euro strength through verbal intervention, commonly known as 'jawboning.' Such ECB communication strategies typically aim to temper currency appreciation that could harm export competitiveness and complicate inflation targets. The 1.20 level represents a key psychological resistance that hasn't been sustainably breached since early 2021. Traders should monitor ECB officials' statements for any attempts to talk down the euro, which could create temporary selling pressure. The forecast implies confidence in eurozone economic resilience and potential dollar weakness driven by Federal Reserve policy shifts or US economic headwinds over the coming year.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
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