Next week, the Fed will be in the quiet period ahead of the FOMC rate meeting on July 30. The S&P Global flash manufacturing and services data will be released for Europe and the US on Thursday. The ECB will likely keep rates unchanged, but given the tariff threat, will likely be biased to more easing .US initial jobless claims fell to 221K last week and moved back toward the lower levels after a modest rise toward 250K.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
AUD
NZD
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faced mild selling pressure following the latest Baker Hughes rig count data, which showed oil rigs declining by 2 to 422 while gas rigs surged by 9 to 117, bringing total rigs up by 7 to 544. This mixed energy sector signal creates uncertainty for USD strength, as lower oil rig counts suggest potential supply constraints that could boost oil prices and inflation expectations. However, the significant increase in gas rigs indicates expanding natural gas production capacity, which may help moderate energy costs. The divergent trends in oil versus gas drilling activity reflect the complex energy landscape affecting the dollar. Currency pairs with commodity-linked currencies like CAD and NOK could see increased volatility as markets digest these conflicting signals. Traders should monitor how energy prices react to these rig count changes, as sustained moves in oil and gas could influence Federal Reserve policy considerations and broader USD momentum in the coming sessions.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Market Analysis by covering: British Pound US Dollar. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
GBPUSD
Source: Marketaux
Market Analysis by covering: New Zealand Dollar US Dollar. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
NZDUSD
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is experiencing downward pressure across major pairs following the IMF's latest assessment highlighting complex economic conditions shaped by escalating trade tensions since April. While specific price movements were not detailed in the initial report, the IMF's cautionary stance on global economic indicators suggests potential headwinds for risk assets and safe-haven flows. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on market sentiment, with traders monitoring developments for potential currency volatility. The dollar's status as a safe-haven currency could see mixed reactions depending on how severe the IMF views these trade disruptions. Technical traders should watch key support levels on major USD pairs as the market digests this development. The lack of specific economic data points in the IMF statement leaves room for interpretation, but the overall tone suggests caution for dollar bulls in the near term as global trade dynamics remain uncertain.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The GBP/USD price analysis shows declining expectations for Bank of England rate cuts amid stronger UK inflation and employment data.
GBPUSD
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar experienced broad-based weakness during European trading hours, with major pairs posting gains against the greenback following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. EUR/USD climbed 0.4% to test 1.0920 resistance, while GBP/USD advanced 0.35% toward 1.2850. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.5% to 103.20, breaking below key support at 103.50. Waller's remarks suggested the Fed may be approaching the end of its tightening cycle sooner than markets anticipated, citing moderating inflation pressures and potential economic headwinds. USD/JPY dropped 0.6% to 148.50 as safe-haven flows benefited the yen. The dovish shift in Fed communication has prompted traders to reassess rate differential trades that had supported dollar strength. Technical indicators show the DXY approaching oversold conditions, with the next major support at 102.80. Markets now await next week's FOMC minutes for further clarity on the Fed's policy trajectory.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY maintains its bullish stance above 149.00, supported by yesterday's robust US retail sales data that exceeded expectations. June retail sales surged 0.7% month-over-month, beating forecasts of 0.5% and signaling resilient consumer spending despite elevated interest rates. The pair trades at 149.20, up 0.15% in Asian session continuation. Core retail sales, excluding autos, jumped 0.8%, reinforcing the narrative of US economic strength that supports the dollar. The Bank of Japan's continued ultra-loose monetary policy stance creates a widening rate differential favoring USD strength. Technical analysis shows immediate resistance at 149.50, with a break potentially opening the path toward the psychological 150.00 level. Support holds firm at 148.80, coinciding with the 20-day moving average. Traders remain cautious of potential BOJ intervention above 150.00, though Japanese officials have remained relatively quiet. The pair's upward trajectory likely continues as long as US economic data remains supportive.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar has come under pressure following former President Trump's harsh criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him 'too late' and one of his 'worst appointments.' Trump accused Powell and the Fed of 'choking out' the housing market with high interest rates, making homeownership difficult for young buyers. The political pressure adds uncertainty to the Fed's policy outlook, with markets already pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025. The dollar index (DXY) has retreated 0.2% from daily highs as traders reassess Fed policy expectations amid mounting political rhetoric. With housing affordability becoming a key political issue, increased pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy could weaken the dollar's yield advantage. Near-term support for DXY sits at 104.50, while resistance remains at 105.20. Traders should monitor upcoming Fed communications for any shift in tone regarding the pace of potential rate adjustments.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY maintains its bullish momentum near 156.50, supported by the widening monetary policy divergence between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a passive Bank of Japan. The pair has gained 0.4% (62 pips) in today's session, extending its weekly advance to 1.2%. The Fed's higher-for-longer stance contrasts sharply with the BoJ's reluctance to normalize policy despite rising inflation pressures. US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield holding above 4.25%, enhancing the dollar's carry trade appeal. Japanese officials have expressed verbal concerns about yen weakness but have not signaled imminent intervention. Technical indicators show USD/JPY testing resistance at 156.75, with a break potentially opening the path to 157.50. Support levels are established at 156.00 and 155.50. Traders should remain vigilant for any shift in BoJ rhetoric or surprise intervention, which could trigger sharp reversals in the pair.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is staging a broad rebound against major currencies, with the DXY index climbing 0.5% to 104.85 as risk-off sentiment returns to markets. EUR/USD has retreated 0.4% to 1.0920, while GBP/USD dropped 0.3% to 1.2680. The dollar's recovery follows a period of consolidation and is supported by resilient US economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its restrictive stance longer than other central banks. US 10-year Treasury yields have risen 8 basis points to 4.28%, reinforcing the dollar's yield advantage. Technical analysis shows the DXY breaking above its 50-day moving average at 104.70, targeting resistance at 105.30. EUR/USD faces immediate support at 1.0900, with a break potentially accelerating declines toward 1.0850. The rebound could gather pace if upcoming US data continues to show economic resilience, particularly in employment and inflation metrics.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has advanced 0.2% to approach the 1.0950 resistance level following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The dollar index retreated 0.3% as Waller suggested the Fed might consider slowing the pace of rate hikes if inflation continues to moderate. His remarks reinforced market expectations for a potential pause in the tightening cycle after the July meeting. Technical indicators show EUR/USD facing immediate resistance at the 1.0950-1.0960 zone, which has capped gains multiple times this week. A successful break above this level could open the path toward 1.1000 psychological resistance. Support remains firm at 1.0900, backed by the 20-day moving average. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US jobless claims and European PMI data for additional directional cues. The pair's ability to sustain above 1.0950 will be crucial for maintaining bullish momentum in the near term.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD surged 0.5% to 1.3580 while USD/CHF climbed 0.4% to 0.8920 as robust US economic data sparked renewed dollar strength. US retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.7% month-over-month versus 0.4% forecast, indicating resilient consumer spending despite elevated interest rates. The upbeat data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its hawkish stance longer than previously anticipated. USD/CAD broke above the key 1.3550 resistance level, targeting 1.3600 next, while USD/CHF cleared 0.8900 resistance with momentum building toward 0.8950. The dollar index gained 0.6% to 103.20, recovering from recent lows. Both pairs are benefiting from risk-off sentiment as traders reduce exposure to commodity currencies. Technical indicators suggest further upside potential if US economic resilience continues. Key support levels stand at 1.3520 for USD/CAD and 0.8880 for USD/CHF.
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD declined 0.4% to 1.2680 as disappointing UK employment data contrasted sharply with robust US retail sales figures. UK unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, while wage growth slowed to 5.7% year-over-year from 6.0%, raising concerns about the UK economy's resilience. The weak labor market data reduces pressure on the Bank of England to maintain aggressive rate hikes. Meanwhile, US retail sales jumped 0.7% month-over-month, significantly beating the 0.4% forecast and reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Technical analysis shows GBP/USD breaking below the crucial 1.2700 support level, with next support at 1.2650. The 50-day moving average at 1.2720 now acts as resistance. Traders are positioning for further sterling weakness unless UK data improves. The diverging economic trajectories between the UK and US suggest continued pressure on the pound in the near term.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has weakened 0.2% to 1.2935 following Goldman Sachs' revised Bank of England rate forecast, removing their September cut prediction. The investment bank now anticipates sequential rate reductions from November through March 2026, targeting a terminal rate of 3.00% from the current 5.25%. This represents a more gradual easing cycle than previously expected, with the first cut still anticipated in August. The revised timeline suggests the BOE remains cautious about persistent UK inflation pressures despite recent moderation. Markets have adjusted expectations accordingly, with sterling finding temporary support around the 1.2920 level. Immediate resistance sits at 1.2965, with a break below 1.2920 potentially opening the path to 1.2880. Traders should monitor upcoming UK inflation data and BOE communications for further directional cues on the pound's trajectory.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
