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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Monday, July 21, 2025

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News Statistics for Monday, July 21, 2025

19
Total Articles
4
Bullish
10
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Archive date: Monday, July 21, 2025

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Forexlive

AUDUSD struggles to extend gains as resistance holds

The AUDUSD opened the Asian session with a modest downward drift, but that weakness was short-lived. Price action found solid footing near the swing level at 0.6495, a zone that has acted as both support and resistance in recent sessions. That level once again proved its technical relevance, drawing in buyers and halting the decline.From there, momentum shifted to the upside, and the pair climbed above the 100-hour moving average , giving the bulls a technical boost.
USD AUD
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

EUR/USD rises as European yields plunge ahead of ECB meeting

European government bond yields experienced a sharp decline on Monday, with German 10-year yields falling 6.3 basis points to 2.615% and Spanish yields dropping 16.9 basis points to 3.217%. This broad-based yield compression has supported EUR/USD, which gained 0.2% to trade near 1.0880. The move comes ahead of Thursday's ECB policy meeting where officials are expected to maintain current rates after implementing eight consecutive cuts. Markets are pricing in cautious ECB positioning amid ongoing EU-US tariff negotiations and persistently low inflation readings below the 2% target. France and Italy also saw significant yield declines of 9.0 and 8.0 basis points respectively. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0900, with support established at 1.0850. Traders await Thursday's eurozone flash PMI data alongside the ECB decision for further directional catalysts.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD weakens as 10-year yields drop 7.3bps, EUR/USD breaks above 200-hour MA

The US dollar continued its downward trajectory Monday as Treasury yields declined sharply, with the 10-year yield falling 7.3 basis points to 4.357% and the 30-year dropping 8.1 basis points to 4.918% from last week's high of 5.07%. The yield decline has pressured the dollar across major pairs, with EUR/USD capitalizing on the weakness by breaking above its 200-hour moving average at 1.16567 and extending gains. The move represents a significant technical development as the pair establishes momentum above this key resistance level. The sharp reversal in yields suggests markets are reassessing Federal Reserve rate expectations, potentially pricing in a less hawkish stance. For traders, the break above the 200-hour MA opens the door for further EUR/USD appreciation toward 1.1700, while failure to maintain above this level could see consolidation around 1.1650.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
financefeeds.com

USD weakens on mixed data as global trade tensions escalate

The US Dollar Index declined 0.4% to 103.20 as mixed economic signals clouded the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, while escalating trade tensions drove flows into safe-haven assets. Recent US data showed conflicting signals with robust consumer spending offset by weakening manufacturing indicators, leaving markets uncertain about the Fed's next move. Global trade concerns intensified as the US administration threatened new tariffs on major trading partners, prompting a flight to traditional safe havens. JPY and CHF both gained against the greenback, with USD/JPY falling 0.6% to 154.80 and USD/CHF dropping 0.5% to 0.8920. Gold prices surged 1.2% to $2,385 per ounce amid the risk-off sentiment. The dollar's weakness was broad-based, with EUR/USD advancing to 1.0880 and GBP/USD climbing to 1.2750. Markets now await this week's Fed speakers and US retail sales data for clarity on monetary policy direction.
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

Tech earnings weigh on risk sentiment as tariff concerns persist

Global equity markets showed muted performance with the Nasdaq 100 trading flat at 19,250 as investors positioned cautiously ahead of major technology earnings releases. The subdued risk appetite has supported safe-haven currencies, with USD/JPY declining 0.3% to 155.20 and EUR/USD holding steady near 1.0875. Market participants remain focused on potential trade tariff implementations that could disrupt global supply chains and corporate earnings. The FTSE 100 underperformed, falling 0.5% to 8,420, while European indices showed similar weakness. Currency volatility remained elevated with implied volatility on major pairs rising 8% week-over-week. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY approaching key support at 155.00, while resistance sits at 156.00. The cautious sentiment ahead of tech earnings has limited dollar gains despite relatively hawkish Fed expectations, keeping major forex pairs range-bound.
USDJPY EURUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY eyes 155.00 support as oil prices impact market dynamics

USD/JPY declined 0.4% to 155.30 on Monday, approaching critical support at 155.00 as risk-off sentiment dominated currency markets. The pair's weakness coincided with a 2.1% drop in WTI crude oil prices to $78.50 per barrel, reflecting concerns about global demand amid trade tensions. Technical indicators suggest USD/JPY faces immediate support at the psychological 155.00 level, with a break below potentially accelerating losses toward 154.50. The Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 103.45, undermining the greenback's appeal despite relatively hawkish Fed positioning. Japanese yen strength was broad-based, with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also declining 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Oil's weakness stemmed from worries about Chinese demand and potential trade disruptions. Traders are monitoring the 155.00 level closely, as a decisive break could signal further yen appreciation against major currencies.
USDJPY EURJPY GBPJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

JPY surges as crypto rally continues in European session

The Japanese yen posted significant gains during Monday's European trading session, emerging as the session's standout performer amid shifting market dynamics. While specific price levels weren't detailed, the yen's strength coincided with continued momentum in cryptocurrency markets, suggesting a complex interplay between traditional forex and digital assets. The rally in crypto markets may be drawing speculative capital away from traditional carry trades, benefiting the historically low-yielding yen. Additionally, the yen's safe-haven appeal could be attracting flows amid broader market uncertainties. The combination of crypto market exuberance and yen strength presents an unusual dynamic, potentially signaling rotation in risk appetite across asset classes. Traders should monitor USD/JPY and cross-yen pairs for potential reversals, particularly if crypto markets experience profit-taking that could redirect flows back to traditional currency markets.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

Central Bank Rate Expectations Show Divergent Paths for Major Currencies

Market pricing indicates varying rate cut expectations across major central banks through year-end 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia leads with 65 basis points of expected cuts, followed by the Bank of England at 50 bps and the Federal Reserve at 47 bps. The European Central Bank shows more modest easing expectations at 25 bps, while the Bank of Canada anticipates just 17 bps of cuts. Notably, the Bank of Japan remains the outlier with 15 bps of expected rate hikes, maintaining its policy divergence. Last week's inflation and employment data caused temporary volatility but ultimately left rate expectations unchanged. These divergent monetary policy paths suggest continued strength for JPY crosses, potential weakness in AUD pairs, and mixed outlooks for USD pairs depending on relative rate differentials. Traders should monitor upcoming central bank communications and economic data releases that could shift these expectations.
USDJPY EURUSD GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCHF
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/JPY jumps as Japan's governing coalition loses Upper House majority

USD/JPY experienced a sharp rally Monday following news that Japan's governing coalition lost its majority in the Upper House elections, creating significant political uncertainty in the world's third-largest economy. The political development raises questions about the stability of current economic policies and the Bank of Japan's ability to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary stance. Markets are interpreting the election outcome as potentially limiting the government's capacity to implement fiscal reforms or support the BOJ's gradual policy normalization efforts. The political instability adds another layer of complexity to Japan's economic challenges, including persistent low inflation and demographic pressures. For forex traders, the election results suggest increased volatility in yen pairs, with USD/JPY likely to test higher resistance levels as political uncertainty weighs on the yen. Near-term resistance may emerge around recent highs, while support could develop at pre-election levels.
USDJPY EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

Gold consolidates at $3,365 after 37% annual gain, range-bound near highs

Gold futures are trading within a tight intraday range of $3,351-$3,378, showing minimal movement as the precious metal consolidates following a remarkable 37% surge over the past twelve months. Current price action remains unchanged from levels seen one week, one month, and three months ago, indicating a clear sideways consolidation phase despite the broader bullish trend. The 50-week high at $3,509.9 remains well above current levels, suggesting potential upside room. This consolidation pattern typically emerges after extended rallies, as traders await fresh catalysts from economic data or central bank policies. Technical indicators point to strong support near $3,350, while resistance clusters around $3,380-$3,400. The pause in momentum could represent healthy price action before the next directional move, with traders closely monitoring dollar strength and inflation expectations as key drivers for gold's next phase.
XAUUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/JPY Faces Pressure as Japan Election Results Loom Over Bond Markets

USD/JPY trading remains cautious ahead of Japan's election results, which could significantly impact both Japanese government bonds and US Treasury markets. The potential for political shifts in Japan has increased uncertainty around the Bank of Japan's monetary policy trajectory, particularly as markets price in 15 basis points of rate hikes by year-end. A victory for opposition parties could accelerate BoJ policy normalization, strengthening the yen and potentially triggering Japanese investors to repatriate funds from US bonds. This would put upward pressure on US yields, creating a complex dynamic for USD/JPY. Current technical levels show the pair consolidating near recent ranges, with traders awaiting election outcomes before committing to directional positions. The interconnected nature of JGB and US Treasury markets means any significant political shift could create volatility across multiple asset classes, with implications extending beyond traditional forex movements.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY drops 0.6% to 148.00 as Japan election results weigh on dollar

USD/JPY has declined 0.6% to approach the 148.00 level as traders digest implications from Japan's latest election results. The yen's strengthening reflects market positioning ahead of potential policy shifts that could emerge from the electoral outcome. Political uncertainty in Japan often triggers safe-haven flows into the yen, particularly when results suggest possible changes to monetary or fiscal policies. The move extends recent yen strength, with the pair now testing key support at 148.00 after failing to sustain levels above 149.00. Technical momentum indicators suggest further downside pressure, with the next significant support zone at 147.50. Market participants are closely monitoring any statements from Japanese officials regarding currency intervention thresholds, as rapid yen appreciation could prompt verbal or direct intervention. The election results may influence Bank of Japan's policy normalization timeline, adding another layer of complexity to USD/JPY trading dynamics in coming sessions.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

NZD/USD Drops on Softer CPI Data, RBNZ Rate Cuts Expected

NZD/USD declined following New Zealand's softer-than-expected inflation data, reinforcing expectations for Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cuts. The weaker CPI print has solidified market pricing for 37 basis points of easing by year-end, keeping downward pressure on the kiwi dollar. The softer inflation readings align with the RBNZ's recent dovish pivot, suggesting the central bank has room to ease monetary policy without risking inflation resurgence. This contrasts with the more hawkish stance from other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, creating a widening interest rate differential unfavorable for NZD. Technical analysis shows NZD/USD testing key support levels, with further downside likely if upcoming economic data continues to disappoint. The cross rate AUD/NZD has also seen movement, with the Australian dollar gaining relative strength despite RBA rate cut expectations, highlighting New Zealand's particularly weak economic position among commodity currencies.
NZDUSD AUDNZD USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/JPY surges as Japan election weakens Ishiba's coalition government

USD/JPY gapped higher at the Asian open, jumping 0.8% to 157.20 as Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday's election. Prime Minister Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito secured only 215 seats, falling short of the 233 needed for control. The political uncertainty has weakened the yen as markets price in potential delays to Bank of Japan policy normalization. Ishiba acknowledged his diminished governing powers while pledging to remain in office to handle critical issues including US trade tariff negotiations with the incoming Trump administration. The pair faces immediate resistance at 158.00, with HSBC analysts warning that 155-160 could trigger BOJ intervention. Support lies at 156.50 (Friday's close). Traders should monitor any signs of verbal intervention from Japanese officials as the pair approaches the psychologically important 160 level.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
raskmedia.com.au

Currency hedging strategies gain focus amid volatile FX markets for ETF investors

Investment professionals are emphasizing the critical importance of currency hedging in global portfolios as foreign exchange volatility impacts overseas investment returns. Currency movements can significantly affect portfolio performance, with unhedged positions potentially adding or subtracting substantial value depending on exchange rate fluctuations. ETF products like HNDQ and NDQ offer investors practical solutions to manage currency risk exposure in international holdings. The hedged versions protect against adverse currency movements while maintaining exposure to underlying asset performance. Recent market volatility has highlighted how currency swings can overwhelm equity returns, particularly in volatile pairs like AUD/USD or emerging market currencies. Professional investors increasingly view currency hedging as essential risk management rather than optional strategy. The article underscores that while hedging involves costs and may limit upside from favorable currency moves, it provides stability and predictability crucial for long-term investment planning in an interconnected global market environment.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY rises amid global political tensions, gold futures gain on uncertainty

USD/JPY has advanced as global political tensions drive risk-off sentiment across financial markets, supporting traditional safe-haven demand patterns. The dollar's strength reflects its reserve currency status during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, while gold futures simultaneously benefit from increased hedging activity. Market participants are positioning defensively as political developments create uncertainty about future economic policies and international relations. The US Dollar Index has firmed, indicating broad-based dollar strength against major counterparts. Gold's parallel rise suggests investors are diversifying safe-haven exposure rather than concentrating in single assets. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY testing resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for continued upside if tensions persist. The correlation between political uncertainty and currency movements remains strong, with traders closely monitoring developments for directional cues. This environment typically favors the dollar and gold while pressuring risk-sensitive currencies and emerging market assets until clarity emerges on geopolitical fronts.
USDJPY XAUUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
cnbc.com

SGD shows safe-haven traits but trails JPY/CHF in crisis currency status

The Singapore dollar is demonstrating increasing safe-haven characteristics, though experts agree it has not yet achieved the established crisis-currency status of the Japanese yen or Swiss franc. Singapore's strong economic fundamentals, substantial foreign reserves, and political stability contribute to SGD's growing appeal during market turbulence. The Monetary Authority of Singapore's prudent policy management and the nation's AAA credit rating enhance confidence in the currency. However, the SGD lacks the deep liquidity and historical precedent that define traditional safe havens like JPY and CHF. Market data shows SGD appreciation during recent risk-off episodes, though movements remain more muted compared to established safe-haven currencies. Analysts suggest Singapore's currency could gradually acquire enhanced safe-haven status over time, potentially approaching Swiss franc levels given similar economic profiles. The evolution reflects shifting global dynamics and Asia's growing financial importance, with SGD positioned as a regional stability anchor.
USDSGD SGDJPY CHFSGD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

NZD/USD drops 0.4% as New Zealand CPI misses expectations

NZD/USD declined 0.4% to 0.5920 during Monday's Asian session following weaker-than-expected New Zealand inflation data. The Q2 CPI rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, missing the 0.6% forecast, while annual inflation decelerated to 3.3% from 4.0% previously. The softer inflation reading increases the likelihood of more aggressive rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with markets now pricing in a 50-basis-point reduction at the August meeting. The kiwi dollar found support at 0.5910, coinciding with the 50-day moving average, while resistance emerged at 0.5950. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential if support breaks, with the next target at 0.5880. The diverging monetary policy outlook between the RBNZ and other major central banks continues to weigh on NZD crosses, particularly against the USD which maintains its haven appeal.
NZDUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY intervention risk rises as HSBC targets 155-160 danger zone

HSBC analysts have identified 155-160 as a critical intervention threshold for USD/JPY, warning that the Bank of Japan may act decisively if the pair breaches these levels. The bank considers 146-152 as fair value range based on current fundamentals, suggesting the yen is significantly undervalued at current levels near 157.00. Historical intervention patterns show the BOJ typically intervenes when moves become disorderly or exceed psychological boundaries. The last major intervention occurred in April 2024 when USD/JPY approached 160, resulting in a sharp 5% reversal. Current positioning data indicates heavy speculative long USD/JPY positions, increasing vulnerability to intervention-driven unwinding. Traders should implement strict risk management above 158.00, with potential for rapid 200-300 pip moves if intervention materializes. The MOF and BOJ continue monitoring excessive volatility, though verbal warnings have intensified recently.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
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