Canada CPI – Tuesday, July 15 at 8:30am ET Canada’s inflation data will be closely watched, with headline CPI m/m expected at 0.2%, down from 0.6% previously. Both Median and Trimmed CPI y/y are forecast to remain steady at 3.0%, signaling a still-elevated but stable inflation environment.
EUR
Source: Finnhub
Central bank reserve managers executed significant selling of JPY and AUD positions during Q1 2025, according to MUFG's analysis of COFER data. The Japanese yen depreciated approximately 2.5% against major currencies as reserve managers reduced exposure, while the Australian dollar faced similar pressure with a 2.1% decline in allocation weightings. Conversely, the Swiss franc emerged as the primary beneficiary, with holdings surging 3.2% as managers sought traditional safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. This reallocation trend reflects growing concerns about Japan's monetary policy divergence and Australia's commodity-linked vulnerabilities. Technical indicators show USD/JPY approaching 148.00 resistance, while AUD/USD tests support at 0.6450. The shift in reserve management strategies suggests continued pressure on both currencies, particularly as global central banks reassess portfolio compositions in response to evolving geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations.
USDJPY
AUDUSD
USDCHF
AUDJPY
CHFJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Bank of America reaffirms its long USD/JPY position as the pair advances to 147.50, marking a two-week high with gains of 0.8% (115 pips) in today's session. The bank cites mounting election uncertainties and potential tariff implementations as key drivers weakening the yen's appeal. Political risk premiums have expanded significantly, with implied volatility reaching 12.5%, the highest level since March. BofA analysts project further yen depreciation as Japanese exporters face headwinds from prospective US trade policies, potentially impacting Japan's trade surplus by 15-20%. The technical picture supports continued upside, with the pair breaking above the 50-day moving average at 147.20. Immediate resistance lies at 148.50, coinciding with the May high, while support has formed at 146.80. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data and any Bank of Japan intervention signals, though BofA suggests intervention risks remain limited below the 150.00 threshold.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has surged to 147.50, achieving a two-week high following persistent buying pressure throughout July. The pair has gained 1.2% (175 pips) since the month's opening, driven by widening US-Japan yield differentials and dollar strength. The 10-year Treasury-JGB spread expanded to 365 basis points, near yearly highs, supporting the dollar's appeal. Technical momentum indicators confirm the bullish trend, with RSI reaching 68 and the pair trading above all major moving averages. July's steady accumulation pattern suggests institutional positioning ahead of potential Federal Reserve hawkishness and continued Bank of Japan accommodation. Key resistance emerges at 148.00, a psychological level that coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June decline. Support levels stand at 147.00 and 146.50. The sustained buying interest indicates market confidence in further upside, particularly if US economic data continues to outperform Japanese metrics.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD continues to trade within a tight range, finding solid support between 1.0663 and 1.0691, a critical technical zone established during April-November 2021. The pair has tested this support area multiple times this week, with buyers consistently defending these levels, reinforcing its importance as a technical floor. On the upside, moving average resistance is capping gains, creating a compression pattern that suggests an impending directional breakout. The repeated tests of support indicate accumulation, though the inability to break higher suggests lingering selling pressure. Technical traders are closely monitoring for a decisive break of either boundary, which could trigger accelerated momentum. A sustained break below 1.0663 would expose the 1.0600 psychological level, while a push above the moving average resistance could target 1.0750. The current consolidation phase reflects market indecision ahead of upcoming economic data releases.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Foreign exchange markets experienced heightened volatility as Trump's aggressive tariff proposals intensified global trade tensions, driving safe-haven demand and USD strength. The dollar index climbed 0.9% to 106.50, its highest level in three weeks, while risk-sensitive currencies declined sharply. EUR/USD dropped 1.1% (120 pips) to 1.0780 as ECB-Fed policy divergence widened, with markets pricing a 75% probability of ECB rate cuts versus Fed hawkishness. Safe-haven flows benefited CHF and JPY, with USD/CHF falling 0.6% to 0.8920 and USD/JPY consolidating near 147.00 despite broader yen weakness. Emerging market currencies faced severe pressure, with USD/MXN surging 2.3% on direct tariff threats. Technical analysis reveals EUR/USD approaching critical support at 1.0750, while GBP/USD tests 1.2600. The confluence of protectionist policies, central bank divergence, and flight-to-quality flows suggests continued volatility ahead.
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDMXN
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD has fully retraced its earlier gains sparked by Trump's tariff threats, with the Canadian dollar staging a notable recovery in what traders are calling the 'TACO trade' (Tariff-Affected Currency Opportunity). The pair surged initially on concerns that potential US tariffs could harm Canadian exports, particularly in the energy and automotive sectors. However, the loonie's resilience emerged as markets reassessed the actual likelihood and timing of tariff implementation. Oil prices, a key driver for CAD strength, have also provided support as WTI crude maintains levels above key technical supports. The reversal highlights how quickly sentiment can shift in currency markets when geopolitical rhetoric meets economic reality. Traders are now watching the 1.3700 level as a pivotal point, with a break below potentially accelerating CAD gains toward 1.3650. The episode underscores the importance of not overreacting to political headlines without concrete policy details.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
European forex trading volumes have demonstrated remarkable resilience in early 2025, with most platforms reporting increased activity amid volatile market conditions. The surge reflects heightened trader engagement as currency markets navigate shifting central bank policies and geopolitical uncertainties. However, performance across platforms shows divergence, with Euronext FX's Fastmatch experiencing a decline to $589 billion in February from $610 billion in January. This 3.4% monthly drop contrasts with broader market strength, suggesting competitive pressures and possible migration of volume to other venues. The overall volume increase indicates robust institutional and retail participation, driven by increased volatility in major currency pairs. Market participants are capitalizing on wider trading ranges and clearer directional trends emerging in 2025. The mixed platform performance highlights the increasingly fragmented nature of forex liquidity, requiring traders to optimize execution across multiple venues for best results.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD is challenging the upper trendline resistance near 0.6750, maintaining its rangebound behavior as the dollar consolidates following last week's Non-Farm Payrolls report. The NFP data showed robust job creation but softer wage growth at 3.9% year-over-year, limiting USD gains and causing traders to reconsider expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market pricing now reflects reduced probability of a third rate cut by year-end, down from 75% to approximately 60%. The pair has found support at 0.6680 while resistance holds firm at the 0.6750-0.6760 zone. Tuesday's US CPI report becomes the next critical catalyst, with consensus expecting core inflation to remain sticky at 3.3% year-over-year. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the dollar and push AUD/USD below 0.6700, while softer inflation might propel the pair above the current resistance toward 0.6800.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Asian equity markets failed to sustain early gains as renewed trade war concerns from Trump's rhetoric dampened risk appetite, creating spillover effects in currency markets. The uncertainty has strengthened safe-haven currencies, with USD/JPY declining as investors seek yen protection amid heightened geopolitical risks. EUR/USD remains under pressure as European growth concerns compound trade war fears, while GBP/USD struggles with both global risk aversion and persistent Brexit-related uncertainties. AUD/USD, particularly sensitive to China trade dynamics, has weakened significantly as Australia's economic ties to China make it vulnerable to any US-China trade tensions. The revived trade war narrative has shifted forex market dynamics, favoring defensive positioning over risk-taking. Technical levels are being tested across major pairs as traders reassess positions. Market participants are closely monitoring any clarification on trade policies, which could trigger rapid reversals in current risk-off positioning.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has declined 0.4% to 1.2845 following disappointing UK economic data showing GDP contracted 0.1% month-over-month in May, missing expectations of 0.2% growth. The unexpected contraction marks the first monthly decline in 2024 and raises concerns about the UK's economic momentum. Industrial production fell 0.2% while construction output dropped 1.8%, contributing to the overall weakness. The pound's decline accelerated as traders increased bets on potential Bank of England rate cuts later this year, with market pricing now showing 45 basis points of easing expected by December. Technical indicators show GBP/USD has broken below the 50-day moving average at 1.2870, with immediate support at 1.2820. The pair faces resistance at 1.2900, which coincides with the previous week's high. Further weakness in UK data could push the pair toward the 1.2780 support level.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has rallied 0.6% to 162.35, reaching fresh multi-month highs as growing US-China trade tensions and Japan's struggling currency dynamics drive the pair higher. The yen's traditional safe-haven appeal has diminished amid escalating trade disputes, with markets focusing on potential tariff implementations. Japanese officials have expressed concern about the rapid yen depreciation, with Finance Minister suggesting intervention remains an option if movements become excessive. The Bank of Japan's ultra-dovish stance continues to weigh on the yen, maintaining negative interest rates while other major central banks remain restrictive. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking above the key 162.00 psychological level with momentum indicators signaling overbought conditions. Immediate resistance lies at 162.80, while support has formed at 161.50. Traders remain vigilant for potential BOJ intervention, which could trigger sharp reversals from current levels.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Asian currency markets showed mixed performance during Friday's session as investors digested President Trump's threats of increased tariffs on Canada while monitoring China stimulus expectations. S&P 500 futures declined 0.3% on tariff concerns, though Asian equities remained resilient with Hong Kong stocks gaining 1.2% on hopes of additional Chinese economic support. AUD/USD traded sideways at 0.6745, caught between risk-off sentiment from trade tensions and support from potential China stimulus. USD/CAD jumped 0.5% to 1.4380 as the Canadian dollar weakened on direct tariff threats. Gold prices edged 0.2% lower to $2,748 as the dollar strengthened broadly. USD/JPY maintained levels near 162.00 despite safe-haven flows. Markets await next week's US CPI data, which could provide clearer direction for dollar pairs amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
AUDUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index has climbed 0.3% to 103.45 as traders position ahead of next week's critical inflation print, with markets now fully focused on Tuesday's CPI release. EUR/USD retreated 0.2% to 1.0920 as dollar strength weighed on the common currency despite stable Eurozone data. USD/CAD surged 0.4% to 1.4365, extending gains on persistent concerns about potential tariff implementations affecting Canadian exports. The dollar's broad-based strength reflects shifting market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with traders now pricing only 35 basis points of rate cuts through year-end, down from 50 basis points last month. Technical analysis shows the DXY breaking above the 103.30 resistance level, targeting 103.80 next. Support sits at 103.00. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could propel the index toward 104.00, while disappointing inflation data might trigger a pullback to 102.50.
EURUSD
USDCAD
DXY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD is exhibiting classic consolidation behavior around the 1.3700 psychological level, with price action confined to a narrow range as markets await fresh directional catalysts. The pair has been oscillating in a 50-pip range between 1.3675 and 1.3725, reflecting balanced forces between USD and CAD fundamentals. Oil prices remain a key factor, with WTI crude stability near $78 per barrel providing underlying support for the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada continue to influence positioning. Technical indicators suggest decreasing volatility and potential for a breakout, with traders monitoring the 1.3750 resistance and 1.3650 support levels. The sideways momentum indicates market indecision ahead of next week's Canadian inflation data and US retail sales figures. A decisive break of the current range could trigger momentum-based moves, with stops likely clustered beyond the range boundaries.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has advanced toward the psychologically significant 1.2000 level, gaining 0.7% (85 pips) in recent trading as the Euro's strength raises concerns among European policymakers about export competitiveness. The pair currently trades at 1.1950, its highest level since January, driven by improving Eurozone economic data and expectations of ECB policy normalization. Manufacturing PMIs across the bloc exceeded forecasts, with Germany posting 52.3 versus 51.5 expected. However, the Euro's 8% appreciation year-to-date threatens to dampen export growth, with automotive and machinery sectors already reporting margin pressures. ECB officials have begun verbal interventions, suggesting discomfort with the current exchange rate. Technical resistance at 1.2000 remains formidable, representing both psychological and historical significance. Support levels stand at 1.1880 and 1.1820. Traders should monitor upcoming ECB communications for potential policy shifts aimed at curbing Euro appreciation.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CHF declined 0.2% to 0.9045 following Switzerland's better-than-expected consumer climate data for June, which came in at -32.2 versus -35.0 forecast and improving from the previous -36.5. The Swiss franc strengthened as the data showed consumer confidence recovering faster than anticipated, with indices for past financial situation, financial outlook, and major purchase intentions all higher than year-ago levels. Despite the economic outlook index remaining below 2024 levels, the overall improvement suggests stabilizing domestic conditions in Switzerland. The early release caught markets off-guard, triggering immediate CHF buying. Technical indicators show USD/CHF testing support at 0.9040, with further downside possible toward 0.9000 if the level breaks. The improving Swiss consumer sentiment reduces pressure on the Swiss National Bank to ease policy aggressively, potentially supporting the franc in coming sessions.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD is positioned to extend its recent advance, currently trading at 1.3680, as persistent weakness in crude oil prices undermines the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. WTI crude has fallen 2.5% this week to $81.20 per barrel amid concerns over global demand and rising US inventories. The US Dollar Index remains steady at 105.50, providing additional support for the pair. Technical analysis indicates USD/CAD has broken above the 1.3650 resistance level, opening the path toward 1.3720 and potentially 1.3750 if momentum continues. The correlation between CAD and oil prices remains strong, with further crude weakness likely to pressure the loonie. Traders are monitoring upcoming Canadian employment data and any shifts in oil market dynamics. The Bank of Canada's recent dovish stance compared to the Federal Reserve's hawkish positioning adds fundamental support for USD/CAD bulls in the medium term.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index gained 0.4% in early Asian trading, with USD/CAD surging 1.2% to 1.4450 after Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective August 1st. The aggressive trade stance has sparked broad dollar buying, pushing USD/JPY above 147.00 for the first time this week, gaining 0.8% to 147.25. Market participants view the tariff threats as potentially inflationary for the US, supporting hawkish Fed expectations. The Canadian dollar faces immediate pressure with support at 1.4500 likely to be tested, while the yen's weakness accelerated despite verbal intervention warnings from Japanese officials. Technical indicators show USD momentum building, with the DXY approaching resistance at 106.50. Traders are positioning for continued dollar strength as Trump's protectionist policies could force other central banks into defensive monetary easing, widening rate differentials in favor of the greenback.
USDCAD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD has maintained its upward momentum for a fourth consecutive session, rising 0.4% to 0.6720 on Friday, recovering from intraday losses despite broader US dollar strength. The Australian dollar's resilience reflects improving risk sentiment and expectations of continued hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia policy amid persistent domestic inflation concerns. The pair has gained over 150 pips from Monday's low of 0.6565, breaking above the key 0.6700 psychological level. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum with the RSI at 62, while immediate resistance lies at 0.6750 (50-day moving average). Support has formed at 0.6680, with a break below potentially exposing 0.6650. The divergence between AUD strength and USD gains highlights specific fundamental support for the Aussie, including strong commodity prices and RBA rate expectations. Traders await next week's Australian employment data for further directional cues.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Market Analysis by covering: British Pound US Dollar. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD experienced its sharpest single-day gain in three months, surging 170 pips to 1.4450 following Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. The dramatic move pushed the Canadian dollar to its weakest level since March 2024, with the loonie losing ground against all major currencies. Market analysts expect the Bank of Canada may need to accelerate rate cuts to offset the economic impact, potentially widening the rate differential with the Fed. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD broke above the critical 1.4300 resistance level with conviction, opening the path toward 1.4500 and potentially 1.4600. The RSI indicator entered overbought territory at 72, suggesting possible near-term consolidation. However, fundamental pressures remain heavily CAD-negative as Canada's export-dependent economy faces significant headwinds. Traders are monitoring Ottawa's response, with retaliatory measures likely to escalate trade tensions further.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY climbed 0.8% to 147.35, decisively breaking above the psychologically important 147.00 level as the yen faced broad-based selling pressure. The move accelerated following Trump's tariff announcements, which sparked risk-off sentiment benefiting the dollar over traditional safe havens. Despite the yen's decline approaching intervention territory, Japanese officials have only issued verbal warnings without concrete action. The pair's momentum indicators show strong bullish signals, with the 14-day RSI at 68 and MACD extending positive divergence. Immediate resistance lies at 147.50, followed by the June high of 148.20. Support has formed at the broken 147.00 level, with stronger backing at 146.50. Market participants note the diverging monetary policies between the Fed and BoJ continue to drive the pair higher, with Japan's ultra-loose policy stance contrasting sharply with potential Fed hawkishness amid US fiscal expansion.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/EUR sentiment shifts bearish as Trump's proposed weapons sales to NATO allies for Ukraine support could strain European defense budgets and impact currency flows. The plan, discussed with President Zelensky, PM Starmer, and President Macron during the May NATO Summit, involves US arms sales to European nations who would then transfer weapons to Ukraine. This arrangement could significantly increase European defense expenditures, potentially weakening the EUR against USD as capital flows toward US defense contractors. The proposal may accelerate European fiscal spending, pressuring EUR stability while boosting USD through increased military exports. Markets are monitoring potential impacts on European debt levels and fiscal deficits. Technical traders should watch key EUR/USD support at 1.0800 as geopolitical tensions typically favor safe-haven USD flows over EUR during military escalations.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
