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Source: Finnhub
The dollar index gained 0.47% as geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine conflict influenced market positioning. Former President Trump's statement that Ukrainian President Zelenskiy should not target Moscow has added complexity to the ongoing conflict narrative, potentially affecting risk sentiment and safe-haven flows. The comments come amid broader market uncertainty about the conflict's economic implications for global trade and energy markets. Additionally, Trump mentioned potential trade deals with Indonesia involving tariff structures, which could impact future dollar dynamics. The DXY's strength reflects both geopolitical risk considerations and anticipation of upcoming economic data releases. Traders are closely monitoring how geopolitical developments might influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and global risk appetite. Near-term dollar support appears solid given the current environment, though volatility remains elevated.
EURUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The dollar index surged 0.47% today, supported by rising Treasury yields as the 10-year note yield climbed 3.6 basis points and the 30-year bond yield breached 5% for the first time in 1.5 months. This significant move in yields has strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials against major currencies, making USD-denominated assets more attractive to international investors. The rise in long-term yields suggests market expectations of sustained higher interest rates or increased inflation concerns. Technical momentum appears bullish for the dollar, with the DXY breaking above recent resistance levels. The yield curve dynamics indicate potential further dollar strength if Treasury yields maintain current levels. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data releases that could either reinforce or challenge current yield trends. Key resistance for the dollar index now sits at recent highs, while support has formed at today's opening levels.
DXY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has surged through the June high of 148.019, reaching 148.669 and approaching the critical May peak at 148.647. The pair has gained approximately 65 pips (0.44%) in today's session, driven by renewed dollar strength and widening US-Japan yield differentials. Technical analysis on the 4-hour chart reveals a key swing area between 148.56 and 148.73, which could determine the pair's next directional move. The Bank of Japan's continued ultra-loose monetary policy stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's hawkish positioning, supporting the bullish momentum. Traders are closely monitoring whether the pair can sustain levels above the May high, which would open the path toward the 149.00 psychological resistance. A failure to hold above 148.50 could trigger profit-taking and a retest of support near 147.80.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD is experiencing sustained bearish pressure as sellers target the lower boundary of the recent trading range. Technical analysis indicates the pair has been unable to maintain gains above key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting further downside potential. The bearish sentiment reflects both dollar strength from rising Treasury yields and concerns about UK economic fundamentals. Current price action shows the pair testing support levels that have held over recent sessions, with a break below potentially accelerating losses. Volume analysis confirms increased selling interest at higher levels, preventing any sustainable recovery attempts. Key support lies at the range bottom near recent lows, while resistance has formed at failed breakout levels. Traders are positioning for a potential range breakdown, which could trigger stop losses and extend the decline. Near-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair can reclaim broken support levels.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Major forex pairs are trading cautiously with the dollar mostly lower ahead of today's crucial US CPI inflation data release. EUR/USD is holding above key support levels as traders position for potential volatility, while USD/JPY remains range-bound near recent highs. GBP/USD shows mixed signals with technical indicators suggesting consolidation before the data. The upcoming CPI report will be pivotal for Federal Reserve rate expectations, with any surprise potentially triggering significant moves across all major pairs. Current market positioning suggests expectations for a moderate inflation reading, though deviation from consensus could spark sharp reactions. Technical setups show EUR/USD facing resistance at recent highs, USD/JPY supported by BOJ policy divergence, and GBP/USD trapped between converging moving averages. Traders should prepare for increased volatility and potential breakouts from current ranges following the CPI release.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD is trading in a tight range as markets await inflation data from both the United States and Canada, creating a unique dual-catalyst scenario for the pair. Current price action shows consolidation near recent levels with reduced volatility as traders avoid taking significant positions before the data releases. Both CPI reports will directly impact respective central bank policy expectations, with the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve closely monitoring inflation trends. Technical indicators suggest the pair is coiling for a potential breakout, with support holding at recent lows and resistance capping gains at psychological levels. The simultaneous release of inflation data from both countries could create heightened volatility and establish new directional trends. Market positioning appears balanced, reflecting uncertainty about relative inflation dynamics between the two economies. Traders should prepare for potential whipsaw movements as the market digests both data points.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
AUD/USD gained 0.25% to 0.6745 as risk appetite improved following President Trump's expressed willingness to continue trade negotiations with China. The Australian dollar, being a risk-sensitive currency, benefited from the shift in market sentiment as traders reduced safe-haven positions. The positive trade rhetoric eased concerns about escalating tariffs that had previously weighed on commodity currencies. Technical indicators show AUD/USD testing resistance at 0.6760, with immediate support at 0.6720. The pair's upward momentum could extend toward 0.6800 if trade optimism persists and Chinese economic data remains supportive. However, traders remain cautious ahead of Australian employment data due Thursday and any concrete developments in US-China trade discussions. The improved risk environment also supported other commodity currencies, with NZD/USD advancing in tandem.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
USD/RUB experienced heightened volatility, trading in a 75.50-76.20 range following Kremlin's measured response to Trump's statements about the Ukraine conflict. The Russian ruble faced pressure as geopolitical uncertainty increased after reports suggested Trump had inquired about Ukraine intensifying strikes against Russia. Moscow stated readiness for negotiations while criticizing Washington and Brussels for enabling continued conflict. The currency pair's movements reflect market concerns about potential escalation and its impact on sanctions and trade flows. Technical analysis shows USD/RUB consolidating near the 76.00 psychological level, with resistance at 76.50 and support at 75.00. Traders are closely monitoring diplomatic developments and their potential impact on energy markets, given Russia's role as a major oil and gas exporter. The uncertainty has also affected broader emerging market currencies.
USDRUB
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD traded at 1.0885, up 0.15%, as the pair approaches a crucial technical zone ahead of Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index report. The euro found support near 1.0850 while testing the psychologically important 1.0900 resistance level. Markets are pricing in a 65% probability of steady inflation at 3.1% year-over-year, which could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions. A break above 1.0900 could signal continuation toward 1.0950, while failure might trigger a retreat to 1.0820 support. The Dollar Index futures showed weakness at 104.20, down 0.2%, providing additional tailwind for the euro. Technical indicators including the RSI at 58 suggest room for further upside without being overbought. Traders are positioning cautiously as the CPI data could spark significant volatility, particularly if inflation surprises either direction.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
US equity futures have risen following Nvidia's approval to sell AI chips to China, boosting risk sentiment ahead of critical US inflation data. The development has created mixed signals for dollar pairs, with EUR/USD holding near 1.0825 while USD/CHF trades around 0.8970. Markets are positioning for today's US Consumer Price Index release, with consensus expecting a 0.2% monthly increase. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen the dollar significantly, as it would support the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and potential for sustained higher rates. NZD/USD has shown resilience near 0.6150, benefiting from improved risk appetite. The Nasdaq 100 futures indicate a positive open, which typically weighs on safe-haven demand for the dollar and Swiss franc. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility around the CPI release, with immediate EUR/USD resistance at 1.0850 and support at 1.0800.
EURUSD
USDCHF
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD advanced 0.4% to 1.0875 following President Trump's announcement of openness to negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union. The euro strengthened as markets interpreted this as a potential easing of transatlantic trade tensions that had previously weighed on European exports. German DAX futures rose 0.8% on the news, reflecting improved business sentiment across the Eurozone. The development comes after months of trade uncertainty that had pressured European manufacturing and export sectors. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD breaking above the 50-day moving average at 1.0860, with next resistance at 1.0900. Support levels are established at 1.0840 and 1.0800. The positive momentum could extend if concrete negotiation timelines emerge, potentially lifting the euro toward 1.0950 in the near term as trade optimism supports European growth prospects.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD declined 0.5% to test critical support at 1.2650 as selling pressure mounted amid concerns over UK economic fundamentals. The sterling faced headwinds from weak UK retail sales data showing a 0.3% monthly decline versus 0.1% expected, raising questions about consumer resilience. Technical indicators point to oversold conditions with RSI at 32, suggesting a potential bounce, though momentum remains bearish. The pair has broken below the 200-day moving average at 1.2680, signaling a shift in medium-term trend. Immediate support lies at 1.2650, with a break potentially accelerating losses toward 1.2600. Resistance now stands at 1.2680-1.2700 zone. Bank of England officials' recent dovish comments about potential rate cuts have added to sterling weakness. Traders await Thursday's UK GDP data which could either validate current pessimism or provide relief for the embattled pound.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/JPY continues to show strong trending behavior, holding above the 190.00 psychological level as traders position ahead of this week's economic calendar. The pair has gained 0.8% over the past three sessions, supported by sterling strength and persistent yen weakness. Technical indicators suggest the uptrend remains intact, with the pair respecting its ascending trendline from early July. Key UK inflation data due Wednesday could further boost the pound if it exceeds the Bank of England's expectations, potentially accelerating rate hike speculation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's dovish stance continues to weigh on the yen, with EUR/GBP remaining relatively stable near 0.8400. Immediate resistance for GBP/JPY sits at 190.80, while support has formed at 189.50. USD/JPY's parallel strength above 148.50 reinforces the yen's broad weakness across major pairs.
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
USDJPY
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar's near-term direction has become increasingly data-dependent as markets await today's crucial CPI release. EUR/USD trades in a tight range near 1.0830, while GBP/USD hovers around 1.2850, both pairs showing limited directional conviction ahead of the inflation data. Market consensus expects core CPI to rise 0.2% monthly, but any deviation could trigger significant volatility. USD/CAD has edged higher to 1.3680, benefiting from softer oil prices weighing on the Canadian dollar. The Federal Reserve's next policy move hinges critically on inflation trends, with persistently high readings likely to support dollar strength through higher-for-longer rate expectations. EUR/GBP remains stable near 0.8435 as both currencies face their own inflation challenges. Traders should prepare for potential breakouts in major pairs, with EUR/USD eyeing 1.0800 support and 1.0860 resistance as key levels.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
EURGBP
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Today's US Consumer Price Index data stands as a pivotal event for dollar pairs, with potential to accelerate the greenback's recent rebound. EUR/USD faces pressure near 1.0825, having retreated from last week's highs above 1.0900. A hotter-than-expected CPI print above the 0.2% monthly consensus could propel USD strength, potentially pushing EUR/USD toward 1.0780 support. GBP/USD similarly vulnerable near 1.2840, while USD/JPY could extend gains beyond the current 148.60 level toward 149.00. USD/CHF has already shown anticipatory strength, trading above 0.8980. The Federal Reserve has signaled data dependency for future rate decisions, making inflation readings particularly market-moving. Technical setups across major pairs suggest coiled volatility, with traders positioned for potential breakouts. A surprisingly soft CPI could reverse dollar gains, lifting EUR/USD back toward 1.0880 resistance.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD is currently testing critical support levels around 1.2650, experiencing increased volatility as traders weigh conflicting market signals. The pair has retreated 0.4% from recent highs, pressured by renewed dollar strength amid risk-off sentiment. Sterling faces headwinds from mixed UK economic data, with inflation showing signs of cooling while employment remains resilient. Technical indicators suggest the pair is at a crucial juncture, with the 50-day moving average at 1.2645 acting as immediate support. A break below could trigger further declines toward 1.2600, while holding above may encourage bulls to target resistance at 1.2720. USD/JPY dynamics are also influencing broader dollar sentiment, with the yen strengthening on safe-haven flows. Traders should monitor upcoming UK GDP data and Bank of England commentary for directional cues, as the pair appears poised for a decisive move following this consolidation phase.
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Tuesday's European trading session centers on Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment index, expected to maintain elevated levels following last month's significant rebound to 47.5 from 41.8. The improved sentiment reflects easing trade war concerns, recent ECB rate cuts, and expectations of expansionary fiscal measures across the Eurozone. EUR/USD trades steady near 1.0825 ahead of the release, with traders positioning cautiously given the light economic calendar. The optimism in German business sentiment could provide support for the euro, particularly if the reading exceeds expectations. Market participants note that sustained improvement in European economic indicators may challenge the ECB's dovish stance, potentially limiting further rate cuts. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD consolidating within a 1.0800-1.0850 range, with a breakout likely dependent on the ZEW data and any shifts in broader risk sentiment throughout the session.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar US Dollar, New Zealand Dollar US Dollar, Orange Juice Futures. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD strength may face headwinds as Q2 earnings season kicks off with major banks reporting this week, potentially impacting risk sentiment and dollar demand. The convergence of corporate earnings, upcoming US economic data releases, and escalating trade tensions ahead of Trump's August 1 deadline creates a complex trading environment for major USD pairs. Big tech earnings scheduled for late July could trigger significant volatility in equity markets, affecting safe-haven flows into the dollar. Market participants are positioning cautiously as month-end flows approach, with traders monitoring corporate guidance for insights into economic health. The interplay between equity performance and dollar strength remains crucial, as strong earnings could reduce demand for defensive USD positions. Technical traders should prepare for increased volatility across USD pairs, particularly USD/JPY and EUR/USD, as risk sentiment shifts with each earnings release.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Asian markets experienced notable movements Tuesday, with Japanese Government Bond yields reaching new records, pressuring USD/JPY lower by 0.3% to 155.20. The yen strengthened as 10-year JGB yields climbed to fresh multi-year highs, raising speculation about potential Bank of Japan policy adjustments. China released mixed economic data, with industrial production beating expectations at 5.6% YoY while retail sales disappointed at 3.7%, missing the 4.6% forecast. This divergence kept USD/CNH range-bound near 7.2650. Additionally, reports of Nvidia receiving approval to sell restricted GPUs to China provided temporary support for risk assets, though currency impacts remained muted. AUD/USD edged 0.2% higher to 0.6485, benefiting from the industrial production beat given Australia's commodity exposure. Regional currencies showed resilience despite global uncertainty, with traders awaiting further catalysts from European and US sessions.
USDJPY
USDCNH
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CNY strengthened following disappointing Chinese economic data, with June retail sales growing only 4.8% year-over-year versus expectations of 5.4% and prior reading of 6.4%. The weaker consumption data suggests ongoing challenges in China's economic recovery, weighing on the yuan. However, industrial production surprised significantly to the upside at 6.8% y/y versus 5.6% expected, indicating manufacturing resilience. Fixed asset investment also disappointed at 2.8% YTD y/y compared to 3.7% forecast. The urban unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%, while separate data showed house prices declining 3.2% y/y in June. The mixed data reinforces expectations that the People's Bank of China may need to maintain accommodative policies to support growth. For forex traders, the retail sales miss is likely to keep pressure on the yuan, with USD/CNY finding support above 7.26 levels as markets digest China's uneven recovery trajectory.
USDCNY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
Global forex markets are experiencing heightened volatility as traders navigate escalating trade tensions, significant policy decisions, and sharp currency movements. The dollar index (DXY) fluctuates near 104.50 as markets digest mixed signals from various economic regions. Trade dispute concerns between major economies have intensified safe-haven flows, benefiting the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, with USD/JPY declining 0.5% and USD/CHF dropping 0.3%. Meanwhile, commodity currencies face pressure, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD both retreating amid risk-off sentiment. Central bank policy divergence remains a key theme, as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance while other major banks consider easing measures. Technical indicators suggest increased volatility ahead, with major pairs testing key support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to monitor geopolitical developments closely, as any escalation in trade tensions could trigger further currency swings throughout the week.
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
