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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Tuesday, July 8, 2025

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News Statistics for Tuesday, July 8, 2025

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Archive date: Tuesday, July 8, 2025

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Forexlive

Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, July 9, 2025 - RBNZ day, Chinese inflation data

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave its cash rate on hold at its meeting today:Poll: Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates at 3.25% on July 9BNZ forecasts no rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the July meetingNewsquawk Week Ahead: Week Ahead: Trade deadlines, FOMC Minutes, RBA, RBNZ, Canada jobsReserve Bank of New Zealand Shadow Board advises RBNZ to hold rates steady this weekI suspect that'll be the outcome, yes.
EUR
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD Strengthens as 3-Year Treasury Auction Shows Weak Demand

The US dollar gained momentum following a disappointing $58 billion 3-year Treasury note auction that yielded 3.891%, above the When-Issued level of 3.887%. The 0.4 basis point tail and below-average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.51x (versus 2.61x six-month average) signaled weaker demand from investors. Direct bidders surged to 29.4% from the typical 15.1%, while indirect bidders fell to 54.1% from 66.6% average, suggesting reduced foreign central bank participation. The auction's C- grade contributed to rising Treasury yields across the curve, with the 10-year yield reaching a 2-week high at 4.43%. This yield spike strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials against major currencies. Technical indicators suggest continued dollar strength if yields maintain above 4.40%, with potential resistance for DXY at 106.50.
DXY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
finance.yahoo.com

DXY Rises 0.30% as 10-Year Treasury Yields Hit 2-Week High

The dollar index (DXY) advanced 0.30% to reach a 1.5-week high, recovering from overnight losses as US Treasury yields surged across the curve. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, marking a 2-week peak and enhancing the dollar's yield advantage against major counterparts. This move reflects growing market expectations for sustained higher US interest rates, widening interest rate differentials in favor of the greenback. The yield surge followed weak demand at today's Treasury auction and concerns about persistent inflation pressures. Major currency pairs showed corresponding weakness, with EUR/USD declining toward 1.0800 and GBP/USD testing support near 1.3550. Traders are positioning for potential further dollar strength if yields continue climbing, with the next resistance for 10-year yields at 4.50%.
DXY EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
insidermonkey.com

Forex Lot Sizes: Essential Risk Management Tool for Traders

Understanding lot sizes in forex trading is crucial for effective risk management and position sizing, yet remains overlooked by many novice traders. A standard lot represents 100,000 units of the base currency, while mini lots (10,000 units) and micro lots (1,000 units) offer smaller exposure options. Proper lot size selection directly impacts potential profits and losses - a 1 pip movement in EUR/USD equals $10 for a standard lot, $1 for a mini lot, and $0.10 for a micro lot. Professional traders typically risk 1-2% of account capital per trade, adjusting lot sizes accordingly. For example, with a $10,000 account risking 1% ($100) with a 50-pip stop loss, the appropriate position would be 0.2 standard lots. Mastering lot size calculations helps traders maintain consistent risk exposure regardless of market volatility or trading pair.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

GBP/USD Breaks Below 1.3550 as Dollar Strength Accelerates

GBP/USD extended its decline, breaking below the crucial 1.3550 support level to trade at 1.3533, as broad-based US dollar strength dominated forex markets. The pair has now breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of June's trading range at 1.35786, signaling potential for further downside. Yesterday's low at 1.3574 and last week's support at 1.3561 have been decisively broken, opening the path toward the next support zone between 1.3505-1.3514. The current level at 1.35292 represents a critical juncture - a sustained break below could accelerate selling pressure. Dollar strength against all major currencies reflects rising US Treasury yields and improved risk sentiment toward USD assets. Technical momentum indicators suggest bearish continuation, with immediate resistance now at the broken 1.3550 level. Traders should monitor the 1.3505 area for potential bounce opportunities.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexcrunch.com

USD/JPY Surges on Trump's 25% Tariff Threat to Japan

USD/JPY rallied sharply as President Trump's announcement of potential 25% tariffs on Japanese goods sparked concerns about Japan's economic outlook. The tariff threat adds significant pressure to Japan's export-dependent economy, already struggling with weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures. Market participants fear the tariffs could reduce Japanese corporate earnings and weaken the yen further as the Bank of Japan may be forced to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy longer than anticipated. The pair has broken above key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting continued upside potential. Technical analysis shows immediate resistance at 157.50, while support has formed at 156.00. The widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan, combined with trade tensions, suggests USD/JPY could test the 158.00 psychological level if risk-off sentiment persists.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/JPY weakens as small business optimism misses expectations

USD/JPY slipped 0.15% to 161.20 following the release of disappointing US small business data. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 98.6 for June, slightly below the expected 98.7 and down from May's 98.8 reading. The decline was primarily driven by a substantial increase in excess inventories, while the Uncertainty Index dropped five points to 89. Notably, 19% of small business owners cited taxes as their top concern, up from May's figure. This data adds to recent mixed economic signals from the US, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Technical indicators suggest immediate support at 161.00, with resistance at 161.50. The softer business sentiment could weigh on dollar strength in the near term, particularly if upcoming economic releases continue to disappoint market expectations.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

AUD/USD targets breakout as RBA maintains hawkish stance

AUD/USD is testing key resistance levels near 0.6750 after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady, maintaining its hawkish bias amid persistent inflation concerns. The pair has gained 0.4% in early Asian trading, supported by the RBA's commitment to keeping rates elevated until inflation returns sustainably to target. Technical analysis indicates the pair is approaching a critical breakout zone, with immediate resistance at 0.6760 (50-day moving average) and stronger resistance at 0.6800. A successful break above these levels could open the path toward 0.6850. Support remains firm at 0.6700, reinforced by positive sentiment around Australia's commodity exports and China's economic recovery. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming Australian employment data and Chinese economic indicators, which could provide additional momentum for the Aussie dollar's upward trajectory.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
financemagnates.com

Prop trading insights: Only 6% of traders achieve funded status

ATFunded, ATFX's proprietary trading division, revealed that merely 6% of traders successfully secured funded accounts in June, highlighting the challenging nature of professional forex trading. This data provides valuable insight into the realistic success rates within the prop trading industry, where traders must demonstrate consistent profitability and risk management to access larger capital allocations. The low success rate underscores the importance of proper education, disciplined trading strategies, and robust risk management in forex markets. For retail traders considering prop firm challenges, these statistics serve as a reality check about the skill level required to trade professionally. The data suggests that while opportunities exist for skilled traders to access significant capital without personal investment, the vast majority struggle to meet the stringent performance criteria. This information may influence market sentiment as it reflects the difficulty retail participants face in achieving consistent profitability.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

RBA holds rates steady, AUD/USD jumps above 0.6600 on hawkish surprise

AUD/USD surged 0.8% (55 pips) to 0.6615 following the Reserve Bank of Australia's unexpected decision to maintain rates at 4.35%, defying market expectations of a 25bp cut. The RBA indicated they require additional inflation data from the upcoming quarterly CPI report before initiating their easing cycle, suggesting a more cautious approach than markets anticipated. This hawkish tilt caught traders off-guard, triggering short covering in AUD positions. The pair broke through key resistance at 0.6580 and is now testing the 0.6620 level, with momentum indicators turning bullish. Looking ahead, today's calendar remains light with only US NFIB Small Business Optimism and NY Fed inflation expectations due, neither typically market-moving. The RBA's patient stance contrasts with other major central banks' easing bias, potentially supporting AUD crosses in the near term as carry trade dynamics shift favorably.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

AUD/USD falls as RBA holds rates at 4.35% despite 92% cut expectations

AUD/USD dropped 0.8% (55 pips) to 0.6620 following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, defying market expectations. Traders had priced in a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, making the hold decision a significant hawkish surprise. The decision was split, with 6 members voting to maintain rates while 3 favored a cut, highlighting internal disagreement within the RBA board. The Australian dollar initially spiked on the announcement before retreating as markets digest the implications. Governor Michele Bullock's upcoming press conference will be crucial for understanding the RBA's forward guidance and rationale behind maintaining restrictive policy. Technical indicators show immediate support at 0.6600, with resistance emerging at 0.6680. The unexpected hold suggests the RBA remains concerned about inflation persistence, potentially delaying rate cuts until late 2024.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

USD/JPY pressured by Trump's 25% tariffs on Japanese imports

USD/JPY declined 0.6% to 160.85 following President Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on Japanese imports, intensifying trade tensions between the two nations. The yen strengthened as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating trade uncertainty. The tariff announcement caught markets off-guard, potentially disrupting supply chains and impacting Japanese exporters' competitiveness. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking below the 161.00 support level, with next support at 160.50. The US Dollar Index fell 0.3% as traders reassessed the potential economic impact of renewed protectionist policies. Japanese officials have yet to respond, but retaliatory measures could further complicate the trade relationship. Near-term sentiment remains bearish for the pair, with additional downside possible if trade tensions escalate. Traders should monitor upcoming diplomatic developments and any policy responses from the Bank of Japan.
USDJPY USDKRW
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

AUD/USD spikes to 0.6615 as RBA defies rate cut expectations

AUD/USD jumped 0.8% to 0.6615 after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, despite widespread expectations for a 25 basis point cut. The central bank's decision reflects ongoing concerns about inflation persistence, with officials preferring to wait for the next quarterly CPI data before committing to policy easing. This unexpected hawkish stance triggered immediate AUD buying across the board, with AUD/JPY gaining 1.2% and EUR/AUD dropping 0.7%. The Australian dollar's strength comes amid broader USD weakness, amplifying the move higher. Technical indicators show AUD/USD breaking above the 50-day moving average at 0.6585, with next resistance at 0.6650. The RBA's patience contrasts sharply with dovish pivots from other major central banks, potentially establishing a more favorable interest rate differential for the Aussie in coming months.
AUDUSD AUDJPY EURAUD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY slides below 157.00 on Trump tariff uncertainty, risk-off flows

USD/JPY declined 0.5% to 156.85 during Asian trading as uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariff policies weighed on both currencies, with safe-haven yen flows outpacing dollar weakness. Markets remain anxious about potential trade disruptions after conflicting signals from the administration regarding implementation timelines for proposed tariffs on China and other trading partners. The uncertainty has dampened risk appetite, benefiting the yen while pressuring high-beta currencies. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking below the 157.00 psychological support, with the next target at 156.50 (Friday's low). The pair's decline accelerated after failing to hold above the 200-hour moving average at 157.20. Traders are also positioning ahead of Thursday's Bank of Japan meeting, where officials may provide guidance on future rate hikes. The combination of trade uncertainty and potential BoJ hawkishness could extend yen strength in the near term.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/JPY faces pressure as Kato signals no forex talks with US Treasury

USD/JPY trading remained cautious following Japanese Finance Minister Kato's statement that no specific foreign exchange discussions are planned with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The comment triggered immediate market reaction as traders unwound yen short positions, reflecting heightened sensitivity to any potential bilateral currency discussions. Kato's strategic name-dropping of Bessent has become a market-moving tactic, often causing rapid position adjustments in yen crosses. The absence of planned talks suggests Japan may not be immediately seeking US cooperation on currency matters, leaving the yen vulnerable to continued depreciation pressures. Market participants are closely monitoring for any shift in Japan's intervention stance, with USD/JPY hovering near multi-month highs. The lack of coordinated action between Tokyo and Washington could embolden yen bears, though traders remain wary of potential unilateral Japanese intervention if the currency weakens too rapidly.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Finnhub

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