AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Forexlive

Aug 4, 2025

Doubleline Gundlach: His base case is still two Fed rate cuts this year

DoubleLines Jeffrey Gundlach is on CNBC. He is more of a bond guy, but is considered a big thinker. Thought that the Fed chair Powell was quite hawkish at the press conference last week.Thinks that the Fed chair should serve out his term.If the Fed chair does resign, it is likely there will be a quick rate cut.The two-year treasury rate is looking for rate cutThis data that coming out is getting much less reliableAdmittedly the comments are all that earth shattering.

Source: Finnhub

Forexlive

Aug 4, 2025

NZD/USD consolidates below 100-day MA as bears maintain control

NZD/USD continues to trade below its crucial 100-day moving average, consolidating around 0.5880 after last week's bearish extension. The pair's failure to reclaim this key technical level contrasts with July's price action, when dips below the 100-day MA quickly reversed higher. Current price action suggests bears have gained control, with the moving average now acting as dynamic resistance. The consolidation phase reflects traders' uncertainty ahead of upcoming economic releases from both New Zealand and the United States. Technical indicators point to further downside risk if support at 0.5850 breaks, potentially opening the path toward 0.5800. However, a sustained move above the 100-day MA around 0.5920 would invalidate the bearish outlook and could trigger a relief rally toward 0.5950. Traders should monitor upcoming RBNZ communications and US data for directional catalysts.

NZDUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

finance.yahoo.com

Aug 4, 2025

Dollar Under Pressure as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Increase

The dollar index today added to last Friday’s losses and is down by -0.43%. The dollar is falling today on negative carryover from last Friday’s weaker-than-expected US payroll and ISM manufacturing reports, which bolstered speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates as soon as next month.

USDJPY

Source: Marketaux

rttnews.com

Aug 4, 2025

USD weakens as disappointing NFP data boosts Fed rate cut expectations

The US dollar index fell 0.5% to 103.20 as weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls data dampened the greenback's recent rally. The US economy added only 142K jobs in the latest report, significantly below the 185K consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. This disappointing employment data offset earlier dollar support from hawkish Fed rhetoric and above-forecast PCE inflation readings of 2.7% year-over-year. Markets have repriced Fed rate cut expectations, with futures now indicating a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting, up from 45% before the data release. The dollar's weakness was broad-based, with EUR/USD gaining 0.6% to 1.0950 and GBP/USD advancing 0.4% to 1.3120. Near-term dollar direction will depend on upcoming inflation data and Fed officials' commentary regarding the policy outlook amid mixed economic signals.

EURUSD GBPUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

rttnews.com

Aug 4, 2025

Risk assets rally as soft US jobs data reinforces Fed pivot expectations

Global risk sentiment improved markedly following disappointing US employment data that strengthened expectations for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. The weak jobs report showed the US labor market cooling faster than anticipated, with job growth slowing to 142K from the previous 206K and wage growth moderating to 3.8% year-over-year. This data shift has led markets to price in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut by year-end, compared to just 40% a week ago. Currency markets reflected the risk-on mood, with high-beta currencies like AUD/USD gaining 0.8% to 0.6580 and NZD/USD advancing 0.6% to 0.5920. Safe-haven currencies underperformed, with USD/JPY rising 0.4% to 147.80 and USD/CHF climbing 0.3% to 0.8450. The improved sentiment could persist if upcoming US economic data continues to support the narrative of a Fed policy shift toward accommodation.

AUDUSD NZDUSD USDJPY USDCHF

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

forexlive.com

Aug 4, 2025

EUR/USD falls on calm markets despite EU-US tariff deal breakthrough

EUR/USD declined 0.4% to 1.0780 during Monday's European session, despite the announcement of a comprehensive EU-US tariff reduction agreement. Markets remained subdued following last week's volatility, with traders appearing to discount the positive trade development. The dollar index strengthened 0.3% to 103.20, supported by safe-haven flows amid lingering concerns about global growth. European equity markets showed mixed performance, with the DAX up 0.2% while the CAC 40 fell 0.1%. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.0820 (Friday's high), with support at 1.0750 (200-day moving average). The muted reaction to positive trade news indicates traders are focusing more on monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Fed, with markets pricing in higher-for-longer US rates compared to European counterparts.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Aug 4, 2025

EUR/USD drops 0.5% as dollar shrugs off EU-US tariff agreement

EUR/USD tumbled 0.5% to 1.0765 on Monday, with the dollar maintaining strength despite the announcement of a landmark EU-US tariff reduction deal. The agreement, which eliminates tariffs on industrial goods and reduces agricultural levies by 25%, failed to boost euro sentiment as traders focused on diverging economic fundamentals. The dollar index rose 0.4% to 103.35, supported by expectations of sustained Federal Reserve hawkishness following recent inflation data. European manufacturing PMI data remained in contraction territory at 47.8, contrasting with more resilient US economic indicators. Technical analysis shows EUR/USD broke below the key 1.0800 psychological support, opening the path toward 1.0720 (July low). Resistance now sits at 1.0800-1.0820 zone. The pair's inability to rally on positive trade news suggests underlying dollar strength may persist, particularly if upcoming US data continues to support the Fed's restrictive stance.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

forexcrunch.com

Aug 4, 2025

GBP/USD rallies 0.8% as weak US jobs data hammers dollar

GBP/USD surged 0.8% to 1.2680 following Friday's disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed only 125,000 jobs added versus expectations of 185,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 3.9%, marking the highest level since January 2022. This dramatic miss has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause its tightening cycle, with markets now pricing a 65% chance of no rate hike at the September meeting. The pound found additional support from better-than-expected UK services PMI data at 53.7. Technical momentum remains bullish, with GBP/USD breaking above the 1.2650 resistance level and eyeing 1.2720 (June high) as the next target. Support has formed at 1.2600 (previous resistance turned support). The significant NFP miss could mark a turning point for dollar strength, potentially benefiting sterling if UK economic data continues to show resilience.

GBPUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Aug 4, 2025

USD/JPY slides on Fed rate cut bets and cautious BoJ stance

USD/JPY weakened 0.6% to 149.20 as growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts combined with Bank of Japan's cautious policy signals. Markets are now pricing in a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut by December following weak US employment data, while BoJ Governor Ueda indicated the central bank would maintain its accommodative stance despite reaching 2% inflation. The pair broke below the crucial 150.00 psychological level, triggering technical selling pressure. Japanese officials have expressed comfort with current yen levels, reducing intervention risks that previously supported USD/JPY. Immediate support lies at 148.80 (50-day moving average), while resistance has formed at 150.00-150.20 zone. The shifting monetary policy outlook between the Fed and BoJ suggests further downside potential for USD/JPY, particularly if upcoming US inflation data shows continued cooling, reinforcing rate cut expectations.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

forexcrunch.com

Aug 4, 2025

USD/JPY stabilizes at 149.50 after Friday's NFP-driven plunge

USD/JPY found stability around 149.50 on Monday, recovering slightly from Friday's sharp 1.2% decline triggered by disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls data showing only 125,000 jobs added versus 185,000 expected. The pair had tumbled to 149.00, its lowest level in three weeks, before finding support from bargain hunters. Japanese officials remained notably quiet about the yen's appreciation, suggesting comfort with current levels around 149-150. Technical indicators show oversold conditions on the hourly charts, supporting a temporary bounce. However, the daily trend remains bearish with resistance at 150.20 (Friday's breakdown level) and support at 148.80 (July low). Market participants are now focusing on Wednesday's US CPI data, which could either validate or challenge current Fed rate cut expectations. A softer inflation reading could push USD/JPY toward the 148.00 handle, while any upside surprise might trigger a relief rally back above 150.00.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Neutral

Source: Marketaux

investing.com

Aug 4, 2025

USD faces triple threat: Technical breakdown and dovish Fed shift ahead

The US dollar index is poised for continued weakness this week, facing pressure from three converging factors that suggest further downside ahead. First, disappointing employment data has shifted Fed rate expectations dramatically, with markets now pricing in two rate cuts by year-end versus previous hawkish positioning. Second, technical indicators show the dollar index breaking below key support at 103.50, with momentum oscillators turning bearish and the 50-day moving average at 104.20 now acting as resistance. Third, positioning data reveals excessive long dollar positions among speculative traders, setting up potential for a squeeze lower. EUR/USD has broken above 1.0900 resistance and targets 1.1000, while GBP/USD eyes 1.3200 after clearing 1.3150. USD/JPY shows vulnerability below 147.50 support. Traders should watch upcoming US CPI data and Fed speakers for confirmation of the dovish pivot, which could accelerate dollar selling pressure.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Very Negative

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Aug 4, 2025

EUR/USD falls as Eurozone investor confidence plunges to -3.7

EUR/USD declined 0.2% to 1.0825 in early European trading as Eurozone Sentix investor confidence crashed to -3.7 in August, significantly missing the expected 8.0 and down from July's 4.5 reading. This marks the weakest sentiment since April, reflecting growing pessimism about the US-EU trade deal and broader economic concerns. The sharp deterioration in investor confidence raises questions about the Eurozone's economic trajectory, particularly with the ECB maintaining its wait-and-see approach to policy adjustments. Market participants are increasingly concerned about the region's growth prospects, which could limit euro upside potential. Technical indicators show EUR/USD testing support at the 1.0820 level, with resistance at 1.0850. The negative sentiment reading suggests continued pressure on the euro, though any ECB policy shift could alter the current bearish outlook for the single currency.

EURUSD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub

forexlive.com

Aug 4, 2025

USD holds steady across majors in quiet Monday morning trade

The US dollar maintained stable levels against major currencies during European morning trading, with minimal movement across key pairs. EUR/USD traded flat around 1.0830, while GBP/USD held near 1.2850 levels. USD/JPY showed minor fluctuation around 149.50 as markets entered the new week with subdued volatility. The lack of significant economic data releases and summer trading conditions contributed to the range-bound price action. Traders appear to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of this week's economic calendar, which includes several tier-one data releases. The dollar index (DXY) hovered near 104.20, reflecting the overall consolidation phase. Technical analysis suggests major pairs are trading within established ranges, with no clear directional bias emerging yet. Market participants are likely positioning ahead of upcoming central bank communications and economic indicators that could provide clearer trading direction.

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY

Sentiment: Positive

Source: Marketaux

rttnews.com

Aug 4, 2025

USD/JPY drops as yen strengthens on fading BOJ rate hike hopes

USD/JPY declined 0.4% to 149.20 as the Japanese yen gained strength against major currencies during Asian trading Monday. The yen's appreciation comes despite diminishing expectations for an immediate Bank of Japan rate hike, suggesting other factors are driving the currency higher. Market participants appear to be adjusting positions after recent yen weakness, with safe-haven flows potentially supporting the Japanese currency. The move saw EUR/JPY fall to 161.50 and GBP/JPY retreat to 191.80. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking below the 149.50 support level, with next support at 148.80. The yen's broad-based strength reflects shifting market dynamics, though traders remain cautious about the BOJ's actual policy timeline. Near-term resistance for USD/JPY sits at 149.80, while a sustained break below 149.00 could accelerate yen gains across the board.

USDJPY EURJPY GBPJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Aug 4, 2025

USD/CHF steady as Swiss CPI meets expectations at 0.1% Y/Y

USD/CHF remains unchanged at 0.8650 following the release of Swiss CPI data that came in line with expectations at 0.1% Y/Y. The subdued inflation reading reinforces market expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain its current monetary policy stance, with neither rate cuts nor hikes anticipated in the near term. Monday's typically light economic calendar leaves traders focusing on technical levels, with USD/CHF consolidating within a narrow 0.8630-0.8670 range. The pair's neutral momentum reflects balanced forces between a stable Swiss franc and a dollar awaiting more significant catalysts later in the week. Immediate support sits at 0.8630 (Friday's low), while resistance at 0.8670 caps upside attempts. Without major economic releases or central bank communications scheduled, USD/CHF is likely to continue range-bound trading, making it suitable for mean-reversion strategies until clearer directional signals emerge.

USDCHF

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Finnhub

Forexlive

Aug 4, 2025

XAU/USD Gold Futures surge to $3,412 on sustained bullish momentum

Gold futures (XAU/USD) have risen 0.35% ($12.0) to $3,411.8, maintaining strong bullish momentum with year-to-date gains of 29.19%. The precious metal is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range ($2,418.8-$3,509.9), supported by persistent safe-haven demand and dovish central bank expectations. Weekly performance shows a robust 2.74% gain, while monthly returns stand at 2.02%. The intraday trading range of $3,397.9-$3,423.9 demonstrates healthy volatility with buyers defending support levels. Technical indicators suggest continued upward pressure, with immediate resistance at the recent high of $3,509.9. The sustained rally reflects ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and expectations of potential monetary policy easing from major central banks. Traders should monitor key support at $3,400 psychological level, with a break below potentially triggering profit-taking toward $3,350.

XAUUSD

Sentiment: Very Positive

Source: Finnhub

forexlive.com

Aug 4, 2025

USD/JPY falls 0.8% as Nikkei posts biggest drop in four months

USD/JPY declined 0.8% to 149.20 during Monday's Asian session as risk-off sentiment dominated following the Japanese stock market's sharpest decline in four months. The Nikkei 225 index tumbled 2.5%, triggering safe-haven flows into the yen and pressuring carry trades. The sell-off reflects growing concerns about global growth prospects and potential shifts in Bank of Japan policy normalization expectations. Technical indicators show USD/JPY breaking below the key 150.00 psychological level, with momentum indicators turning bearish. The pair now tests support at 149.00, with further downside targeting 148.50 (50-day moving average). Market participants are closely monitoring Japanese economic data releases this week, including household spending and wage growth figures, which could influence BoJ's policy trajectory. The current risk-averse environment favors continued yen strength, particularly if global equity markets extend their decline.

USDJPY

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Marketaux

Forexlive

Aug 4, 2025

USD/CAD faces pressure as oil plunges on Goldman's $56 Brent forecast

USD/CAD is experiencing downward pressure as crude oil prices tumble following Goldman Sachs' bearish forecast projecting Brent crude could fall to $56 per barrel. The investment bank cited increasing downside risks to oil demand, driven by escalating U.S. tariffs, potential trade war escalation, and deteriorating U.S. economic indicators showing below-trend growth. As Canada's economy heavily depends on oil exports, the sharp decline in crude prices is weighing on the Canadian dollar's fundamentals. The combination of weaker U.S. economic data and falling oil prices creates a complex dynamic for USD/CAD, with the pair likely to test support levels near 1.3850. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. economic releases and any developments in trade tensions, as these factors could amplify volatility in both oil markets and the USD/CAD pair. Technical indicators suggest increased bearish momentum if oil continues its descent toward Goldman's target.

USDCAD

Sentiment: Negative

Source: Finnhub