The US dollar ends the month lower. Will September be the same?Baker Hughes US oil rig count 412 vs 408 expectedDallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE for July +1.9% vs +3.4% priorJudge did not rule on the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook todayGold rises back to the upper bound of a 4-month long range.
USD
Source: Finnhub
The dollar index today is up by +0.05%. The dollar is climbing today on signs of strength in US consumer spending after July personal spending rose by the most in four months. Also, sticky inflation pressures are hawkish for Fed policy and are supportive for the dollar after...
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is consolidating above the key 1.0820 support level, though upward momentum shows signs of fading as traders await crucial US PCE inflation data. The pair has been range-bound between 1.0820-1.0870 during European trading, with the dollar maintaining steadiness despite softer equity markets. Month-end flows are adding complexity to price action, while traders position cautiously ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected PCE reading could strengthen the dollar and pressure EUR/USD below support, potentially targeting 1.0780. Conversely, softer inflation data might revive euro buying interest toward 1.0900 resistance. Technical indicators suggest waning bullish momentum, with the RSI retreating from overbought territory. The pair's ability to hold above 1.0820 remains crucial for maintaining the near-term uptrend structure.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The USD/CAD price analysis shows a steady Canadian dollar as the greenback heads for a monthly loss due to Fed rate cut expectations.
USDCAD
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar index has retreated 0.2% to 101.45 ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due later today. Markets are expecting core PCE to show a 2.8% year-over-year increase, potentially influencing the Fed's rate cut timeline. EUR/USD has edged higher to 1.1095, while USD/JPY slipped to 146.20 as traders reduce dollar exposure before the key data release. The heightened anxiety reflects uncertainty about whether inflation is cooling sufficiently for the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in September. Technical indicators show the dollar index testing support at 101.30, with resistance at 101.80. A PCE reading above expectations could strengthen the dollar and push back rate cut expectations, while a softer print might accelerate the recent dollar weakness across major pairs.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar held steady during European morning trading on August 29, with major pairs showing limited movement as investors awaited key US inflation data. EUR/USD traded flat near 1.0840, while GBP/USD hovered around 1.3170, both pairs consolidating recent gains. European equity markets eased lower, with the DAX down 0.4% and FTSE 100 declining 0.3%, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of month-end rebalancing and the upcoming US PCE release. The dollar index (DXY) maintained support at 101.20, showing resilience despite yesterday's mixed economic signals. Market participants are particularly focused on the Core PCE reading, expected at 2.6% year-over-year, which could influence Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for September. Month-end portfolio adjustments are creating additional cross-currents in forex markets, potentially masking underlying directional bias until after the PCE data release.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index remains range-bound near 104.50 as traders weigh concerns over potential Federal Reserve independence risks against upcoming economic data. EUR/USD continues to hover around 1.0850, showing limited directional bias ahead of Friday's crucial US PCE inflation data. USD/CAD trades near 1.3550, supported by diverging monetary policy expectations between the Fed and Bank of Canada. NZD/USD holds steady at 0.6200, with the kiwi finding support from improved risk sentiment. Markets appear to be discounting political pressures on Fed independence, though this could emerge as a volatility catalyst. Technical indicators suggest most major pairs remain trapped in consolidation patterns, awaiting a fundamental catalyst for directional breakouts. The upcoming PCE data release could provide the momentum needed to break current ranges across major dollar pairs.
EURUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY continues to consolidate in a tight range around 146.50, with traders reluctant to take directional positions before Friday's US PCE inflation release. The pair has been confined between 146.00 support and 147.00 resistance for the past week, reflecting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. Japanese yen strength has been limited despite Bank of Japan's hawkish stance, as yield differentials continue to favor the dollar. Technical indicators show neutral momentum, with the RSI hovering near 50 and moving averages converging. A break above 147.00 could trigger stops and accelerate gains toward 148.00, while failure below 146.00 might open the path to 145.00. The PCE data will be crucial, with a higher-than-expected reading likely supporting USD/JPY bulls, while softer inflation could reignite yen buying interest.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD trades at 1.0845 ahead of Friday's critical US PCE inflation data, which could determine the pair's near-term direction. Current market positioning suggests traders are slightly long euros, anticipating softer US inflation that could weaken the dollar. The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.0880, coinciding with the 50-day moving average, while support sits at 1.0820. European Central Bank officials remain hawkish, providing underlying support for the euro despite growth concerns. Traders should watch for a PCE reading above 2.8% y/y, which could trigger EUR/USD selling toward 1.0800. Conversely, a reading below 2.6% might propel the pair above 1.0900. Options activity shows increased demand for upside protection, suggesting market participants are preparing for potential euro strength. Risk management will be crucial given expected volatility around the data release.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY maintains a neutral stance at 146.35, finding support at the key 146.20 level as markets await fresh directional catalysts. The US Dollar Index trades sideways near 104.40, reflecting balanced forces between hawkish Fed expectations and global growth concerns. Technical analysis reveals the pair remains within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with decreasing volatility suggesting an imminent breakout. The 200-day moving average at 146.20 continues to provide dynamic support, while resistance caps gains at 146.80. Japanese authorities remain vigilant against excessive yen weakness, though intervention risks appear limited at current levels. Momentum oscillators paint a mixed picture, with MACD showing slight bullish divergence while RSI remains neutral at 52. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic releases and any shifts in Bank of Japan communication for breakout triggers.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.0820 ahead of crucial German state inflation data, with the pair showing limited movement in early European trading. July's German national CPI held steady at 2.0% year-over-year, while core inflation persisted at 2.7%, significantly above the ECB's comfort zone. The stubborn core inflation readings continue to support the ECB's hawkish stance, with market participants now pricing out any rate cuts through Q3 2025. Despite resilient economic conditions across the eurozone, the central bank maintains its guard against persistent price pressures. Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.0850, with support established at 1.0800. Today's German state CPI releases could provide fresh directional momentum, particularly if readings deviate from expectations. Traders should monitor whether inflation shows signs of moderation, which could weaken the euro, or remains elevated, potentially supporting further ECB tightening bias.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY remains trapped in a 146.00-147.00 range as markets await clearer signals on US interest rate direction. The pair trades at 146.45, with implied volatility dropping to multi-week lows, indicating trader indecision. S&P 500 futures edge 0.2% higher while VIX futures decline, suggesting improving risk sentiment that typically supports USD/JPY. However, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy keeps buyers cautious above 147.00 resistance. Technical patterns show a potential ascending triangle formation, with a breakout target near 148.50 if 147.00 gives way. Conversely, failure below 146.00 could accelerate declines toward 145.00. Market positioning data reveals leveraged funds slightly short yen, leaving room for squeeze higher if US data disappoints. The upcoming FOMC minutes and US employment data will likely determine whether the current consolidation resolves higher or lower.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY traded lower during Asian hours following Tokyo CPI data that remained well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for potential BoJ policy normalization. The persistent inflation in Japan's capital city suggests nationwide price pressures remain elevated, contrasting with the BoJ's historically accommodative stance. Market participants are increasingly positioning for a gradual shift in Japanese monetary policy, which has provided underlying support for the yen. The pair has retreated from recent highs near 150.50, with immediate support emerging at 149.20. Technical momentum indicators suggest further downside potential if the 149.00 psychological level breaks. The inflation dynamics create a divergence between BoJ and other major central banks, particularly as the Fed approaches its terminal rate. Traders should watch for any BoJ communication signals that might accelerate policy normalization timeline, which could trigger more substantial yen appreciation against the dollar.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
