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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Monday, August 11, 2025

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News Statistics for Monday, August 11, 2025

11
Total Articles
2
Bullish
6
Bearish
3
Neutral

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Archive date: Monday, August 11, 2025

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Forexlive

Crude oil settles at $63.96

The price of crude oil futures are settling eight cents higher at $63.96. The high price today reached $64.44 the low price was at $63.02.Looking at the hourly chart, the price consolidation seen over the last few days has led to the 100-hour moving average catching up with the price. The current 100 hour moving average is at $64.49 and moving lower.
Source: Finnhub
rttnews.com

Rate Cut Hopes Drag The Dollar Down

dollar declined against major currencies during the week ended August 8 amidst weak economic data that renewed hopes of a larger-than expected and higher-than-expected monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
finance.yahoo.com

Dollar Gains on Euro Weakness

The dollar index today is up by +0.38% at a 1-week high. The dollar is moving higher today as EUR/USD retreated after comments from Ukrainian President Zelenskiy dampened optimism of any quick resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war when he rejected any talk of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia....
EURUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USDCAD fails at 100-day MA despite technical breakout attempt

USDCAD surged to test key resistance levels during Monday's session, breaking above the 200-hour moving average at 1.37817 and briefly piercing the 100-day moving average at 1.37876. Despite these technically significant breaks that should have triggered further upside momentum, the pair failed to sustain gains and reversed sharply lower. The rejection at these critical resistance levels suggests strong selling pressure emerged near the 1.3790 area, potentially from profit-taking or fresh short positions. This false breakout pattern indicates underlying weakness in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, with bears defending the 100-day MA successfully. Technical traders will now watch for a potential retest of support at the 200-hour MA, while a break below could accelerate losses toward 1.3750. The failed breakout serves as a cautionary signal for bulls, suggesting additional consolidation or downside pressure may develop before any sustainable move higher.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD at risk as S&P 500 futures signal bullish breakout above 6,422

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6,425, maintaining a narrow 21-point range between 6,408.5 and 6,429.5, with the 50-week high at 6,468.6 within reach. The TradeCompass technical indicator identifies 6,422 as the critical bullish threshold, which has now been surpassed, signaling positive momentum for risk assets. This bullish equity positioning typically correlates with USD weakness as traders shift toward higher-yielding assets and risk-on currencies. The technical breakout suggests continued upward pressure on stocks, which could weigh on the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Major USD pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD may benefit from this risk-on sentiment shift. Traders should monitor whether the S&P 500 can sustain levels above 6,422 and potentially challenge the 6,468.6 resistance, as failure to hold could reverse the dollar's bearish outlook and trigger defensive positioning back into the greenback.
EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
investing.com

EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1700 amid consolidation phase

EUR/USD is trading in a tight consolidation pattern just below the psychologically important 1.1700 level, reflecting a period of indecision among market participants. The pair appears to be digesting recent gains while traders await fresh catalysts for directional movement. Current price action suggests the euro is maintaining its strength against the US dollar, though momentum has stalled near this key resistance area. The 1.1700 level has proven to be a significant barrier, with multiple attempts to break above failing to generate sustained follow-through buying. Support is forming around 1.1650, creating a narrow 50-pip trading range. This consolidation phase may continue until upcoming economic data releases provide clearer direction. Traders should monitor for a decisive break above 1.1700, which could open the path toward 1.1750-1.1800, while failure to hold current levels might see the pair retreat to test support at 1.1620.
EURUSD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD outlook: Economic data takes precedence over geopolitical concerns

The US dollar's near-term trajectory will be primarily driven by incoming economic data rather than geopolitical developments, despite ongoing global tensions. Market focus has shifted decisively toward fundamental indicators that could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains sensitive to US economic releases, with traders closely monitoring inflation, employment, and growth metrics. Current geopolitical risks, while present, are taking a backseat to data-driven trading strategies. EUR/USD and GBP/USD movements will likely reflect dollar strength or weakness based on comparative economic performance. Additionally, commodity currencies may see indirect impacts through oil price fluctuations, as WTI crude futures respond to both supply dynamics and dollar movements. This data-centric approach suggests increased volatility around key economic releases, with technical levels serving as secondary considerations. Traders should prepare for potential sharp moves in major pairs coinciding with high-impact data announcements.
EURUSD EURGBP DXY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD/JPY Faces CPI Volatility as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise

USD/JPY remains under pressure as markets position ahead of crucial Japanese inflation data, with Fed rate cut expectations dominating sentiment. The pair has been consolidating near recent lows as traders anticipate Japan's Consumer Price Index release, which could influence Bank of Japan policy decisions. Market pricing now reflects increased probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, weighing on dollar strength across major pairs. The S&P 500 futures and VIX volatility index movements suggest risk sentiment remains fragile, potentially supporting safe-haven yen flows. Technical indicators point to key support at the 145.00 psychological level, while resistance emerges near 147.50. A stronger-than-expected Japanese CPI reading could accelerate yen appreciation, particularly if it reinforces expectations for BOJ policy normalization. Conversely, disappointing inflation data might provide temporary relief for USD/JPY bulls, though broader dollar weakness from Fed cut speculation continues to cap upside potential.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD: CPI Data Crucial as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Mount

USD faces pivotal week with July CPI release expected to show 0.2% monthly increase, as markets price in September Fed rate cut amid recent weak economic data. The dollar index has softened 1.2% over the past week as traders position for potential policy shift. Fed officials have turned increasingly dovish following disappointing employment and manufacturing indicators, with futures markets now pricing 85% probability of 25bp cut in September. Stagflation concerns are rising as growth slows while inflation remains sticky. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could trigger sharp dollar rally and unwind rate cut bets, potentially pushing EUR/USD below 1.0900 support and USD/JPY toward 147.00 resistance. Conversely, softer inflation would likely accelerate dollar selling, with EUR/USD targeting 1.1000 psychological level. Traders should monitor closely as unexpected inflation surprises could cause significant volatility across all major USD pairs.
EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD USDCHF AUDUSD USDCAD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
Forexlive

USD faces pressure as July CPI forecast at 0.1% amid US-China trade tensions

USD index has retreated 0.2% to 102.45 as markets anticipate Tuesday's US CPI report for July, with Deutsche Bank projecting a sharp deceleration to 0.1% month-over-month from June's 0.2%. The dollar's weakness stems from expectations of cooling inflation potentially supporting Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Adding to USD uncertainty, the August 12 deadline for US-China tariff pause extension looms large, with trade tensions potentially impacting risk sentiment and dollar demand as a safe haven. Core CPI remains the key focus for traders, expected to moderate to 0.2% from 0.3% previously. Technical indicators show USD index testing support at 102.30, with resistance at 103.00. A softer-than-expected CPI reading could accelerate dollar selling across major pairs, while any surprise uptick might provide temporary USD relief. The confluence of inflation data and trade policy decisions creates a pivotal week for dollar positioning.
USDCNY EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
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