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AI-Enhanced Forex News Archive

Professional trading insights from Monday, August 25, 2025

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News Statistics for Monday, August 25, 2025

15
Total Articles
4
Bullish
7
Bearish
4
Neutral

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Archive date: Monday, August 25, 2025

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nasdaq.com

Dollar Follows T - Note Yields Higher

The dollar index today is up by +0.16%. Also, weakness in stocks today has boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. Gains in the dollar are limited after the Jul Chicago Fed national activity index fell more than...
USDJPY
Source: Marketaux
rttnews.com

USD Index Drops as Powell Signals September Rate Cut at Jackson Hole

The USD Index declined 0.8% following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, extending weekly losses to 1.2%. Powell signaled the Fed is prepared to cut rates as early as September, citing moderating inflation and cooling labor market conditions. His comments marked a clear pivot from the Fed's previous hawkish stance, catching markets off-guard and triggering broad dollar selling. Major pairs saw significant moves, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.1150 and GBP/USD reaching 1.3200. Technical indicators show the USD Index breaking below its 50-day moving average at 101.50, with next support at 100.80. The dovish shift opens the door for a potential 25-50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, likely maintaining downward pressure on the dollar in the near term as traders reprice Fed expectations.
DXY EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
fortune.com

USD/CAD Volatility Expected to Rise from August Lows: BofA Analysis

Bank of America analysts highlight that forex volatility has been unusually subdued throughout August, particularly for the USD/CAD pair currently trading at 1.3580. Historical patterns suggest this calm period is atypical for late summer trading and unlikely to persist. The USD/CAD implied volatility has dropped to multi-month lows near 6.5%, well below the 9.2% yearly average. Analysts point to several upcoming catalysts that could spark movement, including Canadian CPI data next week and diverging central bank policies between the Fed and Bank of Canada. The BoC has already cut rates twice this year while the Fed maintained its hawkish stance until Powell's recent dovish pivot. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD compressed in a tight 1.3520-1.3620 range, with a breakout imminent. Traders should prepare for increased volatility as the pair exits this consolidation phase, with oil prices and interest rate differentials likely determining direction.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
forexcrunch.com

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.3500 as Fed Signals Dovish Shift

GBP/USD maintains its position above the crucial 1.3500 psychological level following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish commentary at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The pair has gained approximately 0.5% (65 pips) since Powell's speech, which hinted at a more accommodative monetary policy stance amid concerns about global economic growth. The dovish tilt has weakened the US dollar across the board, providing support for sterling despite ongoing Brexit uncertainties. Technical indicators show GBP/USD finding immediate resistance at 1.3550, with strong support established at 1.3480. The relative strength index (RSI) reads 58, suggesting room for further upside without entering overbought territory. Traders are now focused on upcoming UK GDP data and US PCE inflation figures, which could determine whether the pair can sustain its break above 1.3500 or face renewed selling pressure.
GBPUSD
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexcrunch.com

AUD/USD Surges on Powell's Dovish Tone, Eyes US PCE Data

AUD/USD posted its strongest daily performance in three months, rallying 1.2% (85 pips) to 0.6780 as dovish Federal Reserve commentary sparked aggressive US dollar selling. The Australian dollar found robust support at 0.6700, attracting significant dip-buying interest as risk appetite improved following Powell's Jackson Hole speech. The Fed Chair's acknowledgment of global growth concerns and openness to policy adjustments has shifted market expectations toward potential rate cuts. Australian fundamentals remain mixed, with iron ore prices stabilizing near $105/ton while domestic employment data shows resilience. Technical analysis reveals the next resistance at 0.6820 (50-day moving average), with momentum indicators turning bullish. This week's US PCE inflation data will be crucial, as a softer reading could propel AUD/USD toward the 0.6850 resistance zone, while stronger inflation might trigger profit-taking.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
rttnews.com

Global Markets Show Mixed Signals Post-Powell's Dovish Jackson Hole Speech

World markets display divergent sentiment following Friday's rally triggered by Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly dovish Jackson Hole address. Asian markets opened mixed Monday, with Japan's Nikkei up 0.4% while China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.3%. European futures point to a cautious open as traders digest the Fed's policy shift implications. The dollar weakness persisted, with the DXY holding near Friday's lows at 101.20. Risk-sensitive currencies like AUD/USD (+0.5% to 0.6780) and NZD/USD (+0.4% to 0.6220) benefited from improved risk appetite. However, uncertainty remains regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed cuts, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Safe-haven flows show JPY strength with USD/JPY down to 144.50. Market positioning suggests traders are awaiting this week's US PCE inflation data for further direction, with volatility likely to increase as summer trading winds down.
DXY AUDUSD NZDUSD USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
financefeeds.com

AUD/USD Surges 1.2% to 0.6820 Ahead of Critical Australian CPI Release

The Australian dollar posted sharp gains against the USD, climbing 1.2% (80 pips) to 0.6820 in Monday's Asian session, marking its highest level since early August. The surge combines broad USD weakness following Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech with anticipation ahead of Wednesday's Australian CPI data. Markets expect headline inflation to moderate to 3.4% YoY from 3.8%, potentially keeping the RBA on hold at 4.35%. The AUD also benefits from improved risk sentiment and stable commodity prices, with iron ore holding above $100/ton. Technical momentum appears strong, with AUD/USD breaking above the 200-day moving average at 0.6780 and eyeing resistance at 0.6850. A softer-than-expected CPI print could cap gains as it would reduce pressure for further RBA tightening. However, the prevailing USD weakness and positive risk environment suggest dips may find buyers, with support established at 0.6750.
AUDUSD
Sentiment: Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD Faces Extended Decline as MUFG Projects Further Weakness Post-Jackson Hole

MUFG analysts project continued USD weakness following Fed Chair Powell's dovish shift at Jackson Hole, suggesting conditions are set for September rate cuts. The bank's forex strategists see the DXY potentially testing 100.00 support in coming weeks, representing a further 1.5% decline from current levels around 101.40. Powell's acknowledgment of labor market cooling and confidence in inflation's path to 2% marked a definitive policy pivot. MUFG highlights that markets are now pricing in 100 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from 75bps pre-Jackson Hole. This repricing particularly benefits high-yielding EM currencies and commodity-linked majors. Technical analysis shows the dollar breaking key support levels across multiple pairs, with EUR/USD targeting 1.1200 and GBP/USD eyeing 1.3300. The bank warns that only significantly strong US data could halt this dollar downtrend, making the upcoming NFP report crucial for near-term direction.
DXY EURUSD GBPUSD
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
investing.com

USD Weakens Broadly as Fed Pivot Boosts Risk Currencies

The US dollar index (DXY) declined 0.8% to 101.50 as markets interpreted Federal Reserve communications as signaling a potential policy pivot, triggering a broad-based rally in risk currencies. GBP/USD advanced 0.6% to 1.3520, while USD/JPY retreated 1.1% to 145.80 as the yen benefited from both dollar weakness and safe-haven flows. USD/CHF fell 0.7% to 0.8650, with the Swiss franc gaining on its traditional defensive appeal. EUR/GBP remained relatively stable at 0.8480, as both currencies gained against the dollar. The market's risk-on sentiment was evident as commodity currencies outperformed, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD posting gains exceeding 1%. Technical indicators suggest the dollar's downtrend may extend, with the DXY approaching key support at 101.00. Traders are positioning for continued dollar weakness unless upcoming US economic data significantly exceeds expectations.
GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF EURGBP AUDUSD NZDUSD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD steady as markets await European session after Friday's volatility

Major currency pairs showed limited movement during Monday's Asian session, with traders hesitant to extend Friday's price action ahead of the European open. EUR/USD held near 1.0845, consolidating after Friday's 0.2% gain, while GBP/USD remained stable around 1.3120. The dollar index (DXY) traded flat at 101.50, reflecting cautious market positioning. Asian equities showed mixed performance, with the Nikkei closing 0.3% higher while Shanghai Composite declined 0.2%. Market participants are awaiting fresh catalysts from European economic data releases, including German IFO Business Climate and Eurozone Consumer Confidence figures. Technical indicators suggest range-bound trading likely to continue, with EUR/USD facing resistance at 1.0870 and support at 1.0820. The lack of follow-through from Friday's moves indicates traders are reassessing positions ahead of this week's key economic releases, including US GDP revision and PCE inflation data.
EURUSD GBPUSD DXY
Sentiment: Positive
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD weakens as Powell signals September rate cut, USD/JPY volatile

The US dollar retreated broadly after Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech maintained a dovish stance, acknowledging risks to the labor market and economy that may warrant policy adjustment. Powell highlighted a "curious kind of balance" in employment conditions, prompting markets to price in 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. This dovish tilt has pressured the dollar across major pairs, with particular focus on USD/JPY dynamics. The pair initially sold off on Powell's comments but has since recovered to approach 147.50, demonstrating significant volatility. Nomura has increased conviction in their USD/JPY short position, targeting 142.00 by October, citing both Fed dovishness and potential Bank of Japan rate hike risks supporting yen strength. Technical levels show immediate resistance at 147.50, while support remains at Friday's lows. Traders should monitor upcoming US employment data for confirmation of labor market weakness that could solidify September rate cut expectations.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/JPY rises 0.4% as yen weakens across the board in Asian trading

The Japanese yen experienced broad-based weakness during Monday's Asian session, with USD/JPY climbing 0.4% (60 pips) to 149.85, approaching the psychologically important 150.00 level. EUR/JPY advanced 0.5% to 162.45, while GBP/JPY gained 0.4% to 196.70. The yen's decline came despite no major fundamental catalysts, suggesting position adjustments ahead of this week's Bank of Japan meeting minutes release. Japanese equity markets supported the move, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 0.8% on yen weakness boosting exporter shares. Technical analysis shows USD/JPY breaking above the 149.50 resistance level, with next target at 150.20 (monthly high). Support now lies at 149.30 (previous resistance turned support). The absence of intervention rhetoric from Japanese officials has emboldened yen bears, though traders remain cautious of potential verbal intervention if USD/JPY approaches 151.00.
USDJPY EURJPY GBPJPY
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Marketaux
forexlive.com

USD/JPY targets 142 as Nomura shorts on Fed dovishness, BOJ hike risk

USD/JPY faces increased selling pressure as Nomura strengthens its short position following Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech, targeting 142.00 by October. The investment bank cites dual pressures on the pair: Federal Reserve's likely September rate cut with 84% probability priced in, and rising Bank of Japan rate hike expectations creating a narrowing interest rate differential. Powell's acknowledgment of labor market risks and potential need for policy adjustment has shifted market sentiment decisively dovish on the dollar. Meanwhile, the yen finds additional support from BOJ's gradual policy normalization path, contrasting sharply with the Fed's easing trajectory. The pair currently trades near 147.50 after recovering from Friday's post-Powell selloff, but technical indicators suggest further downside momentum. Key support levels to watch include 145.00 psychological level and 142.00 target, while resistance sits at 148.00. Traders should monitor both central banks' communications and upcoming economic data for directional clarity.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
Forexlive

USD/CAD drops as oil hedge funds cut bullish bets to 17-year lows

USD/CAD declined 0.4% to 1.3650 as hedge funds slashed their crude oil long positions to the lowest level since October 2008, with net-long WTI futures positions falling by 19,578 lots to just 29,686. The dramatic reduction in bullish oil bets reflects easing concerns over Russian sanctions and growing oversupply fears, which paradoxically strengthened the Canadian dollar despite lower oil prices. Market positioning data from CFTC reveals extreme bearish sentiment in the energy sector, with several agencies forecasting oil supply to outstrip demand in coming months. The loonie found additional support from stable domestic economic conditions and expectations that the Bank of Canada may pause its easing cycle. Technical indicators show USD/CAD testing support at 1.3640, with a break below potentially targeting 1.3600. Traders should monitor upcoming Canadian GDP data and OPEC+ production decisions for further directional cues.
USDCAD
Sentiment: Negative
Source: Finnhub
forexlive.com

USD/JPY rebounds to 147.50 after Powell-driven selloff, volatility persists

USD/JPY has staged a notable recovery to approach 147.50 following Friday's sharp selloff triggered by Fed Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech. The pair initially plunged as Powell acknowledged economic risks warranting potential policy adjustment, with markets now pricing 84% odds of a September rate cut. Despite the initial dollar weakness, USD/JPY has bounced back approximately 150 pips from Friday's lows, highlighting increased volatility in the pair. The recovery suggests some traders may be taking profits on short positions or viewing the selloff as overdone in the near term. However, the broader bearish sentiment remains intact with Nomura maintaining its short position targeting 142.00 by October. Technical analysis shows immediate resistance at 147.50-148.00 zone, while support has formed at Friday's lows near 146.00. The pair's sharp moves reflect conflicting forces between Fed easing expectations and potential BOJ policy tightening, creating challenging trading conditions requiring careful risk management.
USDJPY
Sentiment: Neutral
Source: Marketaux
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