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EURUSD Bullish

Analysis Price: 1.16703 (Updated: 25 August 2026, 00:25 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURUSD showing a moderate bullish bias (medium confidence) with 66% bullish signal balance across the weighted factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

View EURUSD sentiment overview

Signal Overview

Bullish Medium Confidence Low Volatility
Signal Balance:
66% Long
34% Short
Signal strength 32%
Factor agreement 100% of weight
Factor detail
Sentiment 12%
Strength 20%
Patterns 17%
S/R 27%
HP Zones 24%

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bullish bias for EURUSD (signal strength: 32%). Supporting factors include: Price is near a support level at 1.16551 (0.13% below current price); High probability (62%) support zone detected at 1.16551; EUR is showing relative strength against USD (diff: 30%); Technical patterns identified: Bullish Engulfing (H4), Bullish Engulfing (H1); Retail leans short (66%): a mild contrarian tailwind. Volatility on this pair is currently low.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (34% long / 66% short). The overall bullish bias (66%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.
LONG SHORT
34% 66%

Historical Sentiment

Sentiment Interpretation

Retail leans short (66%). Our signals read positioning contrarian and weigh it by how one-sided the book is: near 60/40 it barely registers, and its weight grows with the imbalance - full strength only comes near a true 90/10 extreme.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Analysis Price: 1.16703

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.16858 0.13% ↑
R2: 1.17114 0.35% ↑
R3: 1.17500 0.68% ↑

Support Levels

S1: 1.16551 0.13% ↓
S2: 1.16140 0.48% ↓
S3: 1.15814 0.76% ↓
S4: 1.15048 1.42% ↓
Market Regime:
Uptrend
AI Bias:
Bullish
AI Comment:
Breakout above 1.1610 is consolidating just under 1.1711 with MACD still expanding and retail 66% short. Buy dips toward 1.1655 while 1.1614 holds.
Direction Probability:
70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.16551 (0.13% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.16858 (0.13% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

H4
63%
Bullish Engulfing
Reliability:
Detected: Aug 24, 20:00 · last closed bar
H1
63%
Bullish Engulfing
Reliability:
Detected: Aug 24, 20:00 · 3 H1 bars ago · fading
D1
59%
Shooting Star
Reliability:
Detected: Aug 17, 00:00 · 5 D1 bars ago · fading
D1
74%
Morning Star
Reliability:
Detected: Aug 14, 00:00 · 6 D1 bars ago · fading

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bullish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting upward momentum. The most relevant formation right now is a Bullish Engulfing on H4, documented at 63% historical reliability for that pattern type and printed on the last closed bar. The same bullish reading appears on 3 timeframes, which is worth more than a single chart agreeing with itself.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone
62%
Zone Level:
1.16551
Analysis Price:
1.16703
Distance:
0.13%
Confluence Factors:
Bullish Engulfing 2× tested (30d)
Support Zone
52%
Zone Level:
1.16140
Analysis Price:
1.16703
Distance:
0.48%
Confluence Factors:
2× tested (30d)
Resistance Zone
51%
Zone Level:
1.16858
Analysis Price:
1.16703
Distance:
0.13%
Confluence Factors:
1× tested (30d)
Resistance Zone
51%
Zone Level:
1.17114
Analysis Price:
1.16703
Distance:
0.35%
Confluence Factors:
1× tested (30d)

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is sitting right on the strongest support zone we scored for this pair, at 1.16551 (confluence score 62%). The score comes from 2 factors converging here: a bullish engulfing formed at the level and 2 distinct tests in the last 30 days.

4 zones were scored for this pair: 2 below the analysis price and 2 above it.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:
Daily Range (pips):
47.1
Volatility Regime:
Low
Volatility Level:
3%
10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (D1)

EURUSD is exhibiting low volatility (3 percentile) with an expected range of just 47.1 pips per session. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURUSD

USDCHF
-0.91
GBPUSD
0.81
NZDUSD
0.78
USDCAD
-0.72
CADCHF
-0.71

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURUSD shows strong positive correlation with: GBPUSD, NZDUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

EURUSD shows strong negative correlation with: USDCHF, USDCAD, CADCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Weighted across timeframes the way the signal engine reads it (daily counts most), EUR vs USD comes out at +0.30 — bullish for EURUSD. Individual tabs can disagree with it: shorter windows swing more.

EUR
0.09
Neutral
vs
USD
-0.71
Very Weak
Relative Strength:
0.80
Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (D1)

EUR is significantly stronger than USD on the D1 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.80. This suggests a strong bullish bias for EURUSD. However, this bias is primarily driven by the weakness of USD.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

  • Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
  • Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
  • Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
  • Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
  • Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
  • Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align: the aggregated signal at the top of this page weighs five of them into one reading, and the strongest setups are the ones where the factors that voted agree with each other. See every pair ranked on the Signals page, and the day's trade plans on the Daily Forecast.

Other Currency Pairs

GBPUSD
Bullish (High)
USDJPY
Neutral (Low)
USDCHF
Bearish (Medium)
AUDUSD
Bullish (High)
USDCAD
Bearish (Low)
NZDUSD
Bullish (High)
EURGBP
Neutral (Low)
EURJPY
Bullish (Medium)
EURCHF
Bullish (Low)
EURAUD
Bearish (Medium)
EURCAD
Bullish (Medium)
EURNZD
Bearish (Low)
GBPJPY
Bullish (High)
GBPCHF
Bullish (Medium)
GBPAUD
Bearish (Low)
GBPCAD
Bullish (Medium)
GBPNZD
Bearish (Medium)
AUDJPY
Bullish (High)
CADJPY
Bullish (Low)
NZDJPY
Bullish (High)
CHFJPY
Bullish (Medium)
AUDCHF
Bullish (Medium)
AUDCAD
Bullish (High)
AUDNZD
Neutral (Low)
NZDCHF
Bullish (Medium)
NZDCAD
Bullish (High)
CADCHF
Bearish (Low)
XAUUSD
Neutral (Low)

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