Daily Forex Forecast

Every night our AI builds a trade plan for every market that offers one — entry, stop, two targets, with the reward-to-risk and what the plan is worth on average per unit risked in plain sight; pairs it reads as directionless get a range instead. Then the market judges it: every plan is checked against real candles and published again, win or lose. And the rollover hour, when spreads blow out and stops get hit for nothing, stays outside the plan on purpose.

Forecast generated: Sunday, 04 October 2026 Forecast for: Monday, 05 October 2026 Plan window: Sun 23:00 – Mon 20:00 UTC Stop hit on about 2 in 10 plans · verified record

Archive 2026-10-04

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

The dollar stays firm going into Monday even after soft US jobs data cut bets on a Fed hike. The euro is lagging on French bond stress, and the Swiss franc is holding the gains from its October 1 surge. Today's plans express three themes: short the euro, short the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD), and long the Swiss franc, with the yen as a second safe haven. USD/JPY stays on the sidelines because of intervention risk near this year's highs. The only scheduled US catalyst is the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 New York time, and China's bank holiday thins Asian trading.

Volatility Forecast

Medium

Key Events to Monitor

USD ISM Services PMI at 10:00 NY (forecast 55.1, previous 55.4)
JPY: intervention risk on any push toward 159-160 after the coordinated US-Japan action in August
EUR: French bond spread stress weighing on the euro; EURUSD test of the 1.1215 Oct 1 low
CNY bank holiday: thin Asian session for AUD and NZD

Best Opportunities

EURUSD Bearish

NZDUSD Bearish

EURCHF Bearish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The Top 3 are the pairs the model singles out as the best of the session, kept only when what the plan is worth — the odds of the target, the reward-to-risk and the share of plans that run out of time, read together — is positive; if fewer than three clear that bar, the list is shorter — sometimes empty. Each forecast carries an entry, a stop loss and two targets, so the whole plan is on the table before you decide. No plan is published below 1:1: if no real level on the chart offers at least as much reward as risk, the pair is published as Neutral instead. The whole chain is ours — our AI generates the plan, our own geometry rules validate every level server-side, and our verification republishes the outcome win or lose — and the same feed powers the MT5 Trade Panel. On the verified record when these plans were written (291 filled plans), 10% hit the target, 24% hit the stop and 66% timed out at the window close: that is the mix behind the expected result shown on each plan.

EURUSD

Bearish Medium Confidence

R/R 1:1.79

Expected result +0.13 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 1.12650 Sell limit

Stop Loss 1.12930 (28.0 pips)

Conservative Target 1.12150 (50.0 pips)

Optimal Target 1.12000 (65.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.12854 1.13367 1.13801

Support: 1.12150 1.12000

Rationale

Lower highs since 1.16541, building downside MACD momentum and 79% retail longs back a sell limit under the 1.12854 high, with a 0.5 ATR stop and the 1.1215 low as target. French bond stress keeps the euro weak despite softer Fed hike odds; ISM Services at 10:00 NY is the main intraday risk.

Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail

NZDUSD

Bearish Medium Confidence

R/R 1:1.68

Expected result +0.09 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.56260 Sell limit

Stop Loss 0.56500 (24.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.55858 (40.2 pips)

Optimal Target 0.55500 (76.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.56440 0.56643 0.56872

Support: 0.55858 0.55500

Rationale

A fresh low at 0.55858 and 82% retail longs (the most crowded USD major) back a sell limit under the 0.5644 lower high, with a 0.5 ATR stop. Softer Fed hike odds mean the plan relies on NZD weakness, and ISM Services at 10:00 NY can whipsaw it.

Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail

EURCHF

Bearish Medium Confidence

R/R 1:1.35

Expected result +0.09 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.93370 Sell limit

Stop Loss 0.93630 (26.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.93018 (35.2 pips)

Optimal Target 0.92700 (67.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.93490 0.93801 0.94105

Support: 0.93018 0.92700 0.92597

Rationale

The Oct 1 franc shock broke the September floor and French bond stress keeps EURCHF sliding, so the plan is a sell limit with a 0.5 ATR stop above 0.9349. The Oct 2 wick at 0.92597 argues for banking profits at 0.93018 first.

Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail

These plans can go straight onto your chart. The Trade Panel EA reads this same forecast inside MetaTrader 5 — entry, stop and both targets — and prefills the pending order at the published price, so the trade you place is the one measured on this page. The Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws the plan on the chart of that market, with stop and target you can drag. It is available now — one license covers both panels. New to trade panels? How an MT5 trade panel places these plans.

Discover the Trade Panel EA

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, the reward-to-risk ratio and the expected result it is worth per unit of risk. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair	Direction	Confidence	Analysis Price	Entry	Stop Loss	Target	Expected result	Risk:Reward
EURUSD	Bearish	Medium	1.12587	1.12650Sell limit	1.12930	1.12150	+0.13R	1:1.79
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 1.12587 Entry Point 1.12650 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 1.12930 Conservative Target 1.12150 Risk:Reward 1:1.79 Optimal Target 1.12000 Stop Loss Distance 28.0 pips Target Distance 50.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.12854 1.13367 1.13801 Support: 1.12150 1.12000 Rationale Lower highs since 1.16541, building downside MACD momentum and 79% retail longs back a sell limit under the 1.12854 high, with a 0.5 ATR stop and the 1.1215 low as target. French bond stress keeps the euro weak despite softer Fed hike odds; ISM Services at 10:00 NY is the main intraday risk. Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDUSD	Bearish	Medium	0.69560	0.69620Sell limit	0.69870	0.69220	+0.11R	1:1.60
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 0.69560 Entry Point 0.69620 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.69870 Conservative Target 0.69220 Risk:Reward 1:1.60 Optimal Target 0.69037 Stop Loss Distance 25.0 pips Target Distance 40.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.69755 0.69946 0.70239 Support: 0.69220 0.69037 0.69000 Rationale Every bounce from 0.72378 has been sold, MACD keeps widening lower and retail is 69% long, so the plan is a sell limit under 0.69755 with the stop just beyond it, targeting 0.6922 then 0.69037. A dovish-sounding RBA hike leaves AUD soft; the China holiday and ISM Services at 10:00 NY are the risks. Full AUDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURJPY	Bearish	Medium	177.668	177.850Sell limit	178.550	176.595	+0.11R	1:1.79
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 177.668 Entry Point 177.850 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 178.550 Conservative Target 176.595 Risk:Reward 1:1.79 Optimal Target 176.000 Stop Loss Distance 70.0 pips Target Distance 125.5 pips Key Levels Resistance: 177.902 179.309 179.539 Support: 176.595 176.000 Rationale Lower highs at 180.795, 179.722 and 179.309 keep sellers in control, and euro weakness pairs with yen haven demand. Because 179.309 is more than 1 ATR away, the stop is a 0.53 ATR volatility stop, targeting the 176.595 low. Full EURJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPAUD	Bullish	Medium	1.90472	1.90350Buy limit	1.89830	1.91148	+0.10R	1:1.53
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 1.90472 Entry Point 1.90350 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.89830 Conservative Target 1.91148 Risk:Reward 1:1.53 Optimal Target 1.91889 Stop Loss Distance 52.0 pips Target Distance 79.8 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.90693 1.91148 1.91889 Support: 1.90035 1.89678 1.88552 Rationale The breakout above the 1.895 September ceiling is holding with MACD above zero, so the plan is a buy limit with a 0.55 ATR stop below 1.90035, targeting 1.91148 then 1.91889. A dovish-sounding RBA hike keeps AUD on the back foot. Full GBPAUD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCHF	Bearish	High	0.46574	0.46610Sell limit	0.46790	0.46330	+0.10R	1:1.56
Forecast Details Confidence High Analysis Price 0.46574 Entry Point 0.46610 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.46790 Conservative Target 0.46330 Risk:Reward 1:1.56 Optimal Target 0.46000 Stop Loss Distance 18.0 pips Target Distance 28.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.46627 0.47081 0.47237 Support: 0.46330 0.46000 Rationale The breakdown below the 0.4668-0.4672 base and 78% retail longs back a sell limit near the 0.46627 pivot. Because 0.47081 is more than 1 ATR away, the stop is a 0.54 ATR volatility stop, targeting 0.4633 then 0.4600. Full NZDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
CADCHF	Bearish	Medium	0.58150	0.58200Sell limit	0.58390	0.57872	+0.10R	1:1.73
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 0.58150 Entry Point 0.58200 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.58390 Conservative Target 0.57872 Risk:Reward 1:1.73 Optimal Target 0.57811 Stop Loss Distance 19.0 pips Target Distance 32.8 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.58225 0.58503 0.58638 Support: 0.57872 0.57811 0.57625 Rationale Price closed below the old 0.5828 floor after the franc shock, and retail is 75% long. The plan is a sell limit under 0.58225 with a 0.5 ATR stop, targeting the 0.57872 low then 0.57811. Full CADCHF analysis Sentiment detail
NZDUSD	Bearish	Medium	0.56199	0.56260Sell limit	0.56500	0.55858	+0.09R	1:1.68
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 0.56199 Entry Point 0.56260 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.56500 Conservative Target 0.55858 Risk:Reward 1:1.68 Optimal Target 0.55500 Stop Loss Distance 24.0 pips Target Distance 40.2 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.56440 0.56643 0.56872 Support: 0.55858 0.55500 Rationale A fresh low at 0.55858 and 82% retail longs (the most crowded USD major) back a sell limit under the 0.5644 lower high, with a 0.5 ATR stop. Softer Fed hike odds mean the plan relies on NZD weakness, and ISM Services at 10:00 NY can whipsaw it. Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURCHF	Bearish	Medium	0.93306	0.93370Sell limit	0.93630	0.93018	+0.09R	1:1.35
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 0.93306 Entry Point 0.93370 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.93630 Conservative Target 0.93018 Risk:Reward 1:1.35 Optimal Target 0.92700 Stop Loss Distance 26.0 pips Target Distance 35.2 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.93490 0.93801 0.94105 Support: 0.93018 0.92700 0.92597 Rationale The Oct 1 franc shock broke the September floor and French bond stress keeps EURCHF sliding, so the plan is a sell limit with a 0.5 ATR stop above 0.9349. The Oct 2 wick at 0.92597 argues for banking profits at 0.93018 first. Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDJPY	Bearish	Medium	109.764	109.880Sell limit	110.360	109.233	+0.09R	1:1.35
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 109.764 Entry Point 109.880 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 110.360 Conservative Target 109.233 Risk:Reward 1:1.35 Optimal Target 108.886 Stop Loss Distance 48.0 pips Target Distance 64.7 pips Key Levels Resistance: 109.892 110.104 110.888 Support: 109.666 109.233 108.886 Rationale Lower highs since 112.616 and MACD widening below its signal back a sell limit at 109.892 resistance, with a volatility stop above 110.104 because 110.888 is more than 1 ATR away. Intervention risk on USDJPY adds two-way yen upside; targets are 109.233 then 108.886. Full AUDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCAD	Bullish	Medium	1.88821	1.88700Buy limit	1.88060	1.89527	+0.08R	1:1.29
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Analysis Price 1.88821 Entry Point 1.88700 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.88060 Conservative Target 1.89527 Risk:Reward 1:1.29 Optimal Target 1.89527 Stop Loss Distance 64.0 pips Target Distance 82.7 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.88934 1.89210 1.89527 Support: 1.88096 1.87486 1.87117 Rationale Rising lows, a near-full recovery of the Oct 1 dip and 69% retail shorts back a buy limit with the stop below 1.88096 support. Only 1.89527 reaches 1:1 and no level is mapped beyond it, so profit is taken there. Full GBPCAD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPUSD	Neutral	Low	1.32490	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 1.32490 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.32557 1.33110 1.33488 Support: 1.32040 1.31811 Rationale Cable is grinding inside the 1.3181-1.3311 box with only a mild retail skew, and selling GBP would fight the long-GBP plans in GBPAUD and GBPCAD. The long-USD exposure is already carried by EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Full GBPUSD analysis Sentiment detail
USDJPY	Neutral	Low	157.805	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 157.805 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 158.056 158.450 159.036 Support: 156.948 156.678 156.375 Rationale Upside targets at 158.45-159.036 sit in the zone where the US and Japan intervened jointly in August, and soft US jobs data has cut Fed hike odds. Buying the dip into that combination is fighting the macro picture, and retail at 50/50 offers no edge. Full USDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
USDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.82873	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 0.82873 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.83266 0.83615 0.83822 Support: 0.82272 0.81830 0.80671 Rationale The Oct 1 bearish reversal from 0.83822 and the franc shock argue against buying here, and a long would cut against the long-CHF plans in EURCHF, NZDCHF and CADCHF. The long-USD slots are already used. Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
USDCAD	Neutral	Low	1.42526	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 1.42526 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.42625 1.43000 Support: 1.42001 1.41543 1.40836 Rationale The trend is strong, but price sits under the double cap at 1.4261-1.42625 with RSI at 77.5, and only 1.43 offers about 1:1 with no level beyond it. The long-USD theme is already carried by three plans. Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURGBP	Neutral	Low	0.84978	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 0.84978 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.85269 0.85443 0.85828 Support: 0.84942 0.84547 Rationale With the stop above 0.85269, the only target that reaches 1:1 is 0.84547, about 1.8 ATR away, which is too far for one session. The short-EUR theme is carried by EURUSD, EURCHF and EURJPY. Full EURGBP analysis Sentiment detail
EURAUD	Neutral	Low	1.61857	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 1.61857 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.62272 1.62518 1.63366 Support: 1.61658 1.61355 1.60807 Rationale Price is mid-range in the 1.6064-1.6335 band with MACD near zero and no clear lead. Both legs are on the short side of today's themes. Full EURAUD analysis Sentiment detail
EURCAD	Neutral	Low	1.60458	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 1.60458 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.60589 1.61027 1.61362 Support: 1.60154 1.60005 1.59700 Rationale The Oct 2 snapback from 1.597 leaves the range breakdown unconfirmed. The trade is redundant with the short-EUR plans in EURUSD, EURCHF and EURJPY. Full EURCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURNZD	Neutral	Low	2.00339	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 2.00339 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.01090 2.01427 2.01643 Support: 1.99334 1.98728 1.95740 Rationale This is a low-confidence plateau with MACD below its signal, and buying EUR would fight the short-euro theme. NZD weakness is already expressed in NZDUSD and NZDCHF. Full EURNZD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPJPY	Neutral	Low	209.074	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 209.074 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 209.108 209.993 210.890 Support: 207.866 207.300 206.883 Rationale The pair is compressed between 206.883 and 209.993 with momentum flattening, so there is no directional edge. Long-GBP and long-JPY are both themes, and they cancel out here. Full GBPJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCHF	Neutral	Low	1.09801	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 1.09801 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.09836 1.10054 1.10662 Support: 1.09110 1.08975 1.08892 Rationale The pair is swinging inside the 1.089-1.110 range with a flat MACD and no trend. Long-GBP and long-CHF are both themes, and they offset each other here. Full GBPCHF analysis Sentiment detail
GBPNZD	Neutral	Low	2.35757	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 2.35757 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.36202 2.37000 Support: 2.34420 2.34109 2.32432 Rationale With the stop below 2.3442, only 2.37 gives about 1:1 and RSI is near overbought at 70, which is too thin an edge. Short NZD is already carried by NZDUSD and NZDCHF. Full GBPNZD analysis Sentiment detail
CADJPY	Neutral	Low	110.721	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 110.721 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 111.297 111.514 112.586 Support: 110.537 110.379 110.150 Rationale Redundant with the long-JPY plans in EURJPY and AUDJPY and the short-CAD plans in GBPCAD and CADCHF. Only the 110.15 monthly low reaches 1:1, with no level beyond. Full CADJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDJPY	Neutral	Low	88.682	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 88.682 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 88.829 89.068 89.511 Support: 88.263 88.116 88.000 Rationale RSI at 28 and a fresh bullish MACD cross inside the compressed 88.1-89.1 band make a short fragile. Short NZD is carried by NZDUSD and NZDCHF. Full NZDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CHFJPY	Neutral	Low	190.406	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 190.406 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 190.944 191.932 192.478 Support: 189.836 189.082 188.455 Rationale This is an early, low-confidence rebound with RSI below 50. Long-CHF and long-JPY are both themes, so the cross has no clean expression. Full CHFJPY analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.57647	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 0.57647 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.57810 0.58226 0.58571 Support: 0.57280 0.56728 0.56665 Rationale Redundant with the AUD shorts in AUDUSD, AUDJPY and GBPAUD and the CHF longs in EURCHF, NZDCHF and CADCHF. Retail is balanced, so there is no extra edge. Full AUDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.99136	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 0.99136 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.99256 0.99690 0.99908 Support: 0.98982 0.98389 0.98193 Rationale The pair is in a low-confidence range at the midline, with both legs on the sold side of the commodity-currency theme. The engulfing bar is unconfirmed until it closes above 0.99256. Full AUDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDNZD	Neutral	Low	1.23774	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 1.23774 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.24003 1.24367 1.24906 Support: 1.23565 1.23363 1.22877 Rationale The range shows lower highs at 1.24578, 1.24367 and 1.24057, and MACD is cooling, so the edge to 1.24367 is too thin. Both legs are already short in other plans. Full AUDNZD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.80093	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 0.80093 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.80161 0.80394 0.80518 Support: 0.79815 0.79624 0.79504 Rationale The pair is in a range with weak momentum, and both NZD and CAD are being sold elsewhere today. The Oct 2 recovery to 0.80018 leaves the breakdown unconfirmed. Full NZDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
XAUUSD	Neutral	Low	4140.75	—	—	—	—	—
Forecast Details Confidence Low Analysis Price 4140.75 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 4166.08 4226.97 4303.22 Support: 4125.33 4110.89 4020.39 Rationale Fed hike odds collapsed after soft US jobs data, which cuts against the bear flag. With a 0.5 ATR stop, only 4020.39 reaches 1:1, about 1.4 ATR away, which is too far for an edge. Full XAUUSD analysis Sentiment detail

Expected result is in R — multiples of what the plan risks. +0.20R on a $100 risk means about $20 back, on average over a long run of plans like it — an estimate, not a result.

Verified record

The three we pick

+$6 average per $100 risked

66 of 99 picks filled, over 33 verified days · target hit 18%

Every plan on the board

−$6 average per $100 risked

291 plans over 33 verified days · target hit 10%

33 verified days is a short record, and neither number is proof yet. On 66 picks the honest range around the +$6 runs from −$14 to +$25 — wide enough to include zero. We publish both figures as they grow, win or lose.

How solid is this, exactly?

What the two numbers are. The board is the whole sheet, all 29 markets, and it includes every plan that did not clear the bar for the Top 3. The Top 3 are the ones declared the evening before, when the forecast is published — not picked afterwards: every one of them is in the dated archive, so you can check any past day yourself. Of 99 picks published, 66 were actually filled; the rest never reached their entry price and are excluded, here as everywhere else.

Why the sample is weaker than the count suggests. 19 of the 66 picks lost the full $100, against 39 that closed above zero — the shape of the record so far. One session accounts for 79% of the Top 3 result, and 25 of the 66 picks were the same underlying bet (long AUD) expressed on different pairs, so they are fewer independent outcomes than they look. The board figure carries its own range, −$14 to +$3, which also includes zero.

What this sample cannot show. That the picks beat the board, and that either of them makes money over time. What it does show is the method: every plan checked against the real candles of its day and republished, whatever it did.

How the 291 plans of the board ended (19 Aug – 2 Oct 2026)

Target hit 10% (30)
Stop hit 24% (69)
Timed out 66% (192)

Every plan is checked against the real market candles of its target day. “Timed out” means the order was still open at the end of the day and is counted at its closing price — not as a loss. 145 plans never reached the entry price, so they are excluded.

See the full breakdown

30% Win rate 30 of 99 plans closed at target or stop

-0.06R Actual average result what the plans really returned, per traded plan, risking the same amount on every one

+0.09R Timed-out average how those 192 orders ended, on average

A high win rate alone doesn’t mean profit: what matters is how much each win and each loss is worth. That is what the number at the top measures.

Win rate by direction

Bullish

23%

14 of 60 plans

Bearish

41%

16 of 39 plans

Win rate by pair

Pair	Win rate	Plans
GBPJPY	75%	3 / 4
NZDJPY	67%	2 / 3
AUDCHF	50%	3 / 6
USDCAD	50%	2 / 4
NZDCAD	50%	2 / 4
AUDUSD	43%	3 / 7
EURCHF	33%	3 / 9
GBPUSD	33%	1 / 3
CHFJPY	33%	1 / 3
AUDJPY	25%	1 / 4
EURNZD	25%	1 / 4
EURUSD	25%	1 / 4
USDCHF	25%	1 / 4
USDJPY	25%	1 / 4
NZDUSD	25%	1 / 4
AUDCAD	0%	0 / 3
GBPCAD	0%	0 / 4
NZDCHF	0%	0 / 3
GBPNZD	0%	0 / 3
EURGBP	0%	0 / 3

What each outcome means

Target hit: Price reached the conservative target without touching the stop first, and the minute-by-minute prices of our data feed (bid and ask, the sides a real order fills and closes on) confirm it happened after the order filled; where a day has no complete minute record, the hourly candles take over. A price printed before the entry was reached does not count: there was no position to close.
Stop hit: Price reached the stop before the target. Counts as a loss. When a day touched both levels, the minute prices say which one came first (the hourly candles where the minute record is incomplete) — and a stop can only be hit after the entry filled, never before. In the rare event that both land inside the same minute, the tie goes to the loss.
Timed out: The order was still open when the day ended: it is closed at that day's closing price, so the result can be slightly positive or slightly negative. Not a loss.
Not filled: Price never reached the entry, so the order would never have opened. Excluded from every rate — counting it either way would be inventing a trade that did not exist.
Range held / Range broken: Only for neutral calls, where the forecast says a pair has no direction and publishes no trade. We check whether the day closed inside the levels we published: held if it did, broken if it did not. Neither counts in the statistics, because there was no order to place.

The Result column is in R, multiples of what that plan put at risk: +1.50R means one and a half times the risk, −1R is a full stop loss. It is the same unit as the headline above, which is simply the average R turned into dollars.

Day by day

2 Oct 2026 0 target · 3 stop · 4 timed out $100 → $71

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURJPY	Bearish	177.950 → 176.771	Not filled	–
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Bearish	1.59970 → 1.59500	Stop hit	-1.00R
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90320 → 1.91157	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35400 → 2.36208	Timed out	+0.59R
AUDJPY	Bearish	109.650 → 108.708	Timed out	-0.33R
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	88.680 → 88.119	Timed out	+0.06R
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Bearish	0.98610 → 0.98198	Stop hit	-1.00R
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.23580 → 1.24376	Timed out	+0.64R
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–

1 Oct 2026 2 target · 4 stop · 1 timed out $100 → $65

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Bearish	0.69540 → 0.69223	Target hit	+1.09R
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42200 → 1.42500	Not filled	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCHF	Bullish	0.94640 → 0.94862	Stop hit	-1.00R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90830 → 1.91910	Timed out	-0.56R
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88720 → 1.89536	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Bearish	109.500 → 108.892	Stop hit	-1.00R
CADJPY	Bearish	110.720 → 110.170	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDJPY	Bearish	88.810 → 88.231	Target hit	+1.03R
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCAD	Bearish	0.80270 → 0.79944	Not filled	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

30 Sep 2026 2 target · 0 stop · 2 timed out $100 → $177

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Bullish	0.94530 → 0.94767	Target hit	+1.25R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Bullish	2.00950 → 2.02000	Timed out	+0.16R
GBPJPY	Bearish	208.260 → 207.103	Target hit	+1.45R
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	88.790 → 88.000	Timed out	+0.25R
CHFJPY	Bearish	188.780 → 187.841	Not filled	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–

29 Sep 2026 1 target · 0 stop · 3 timed out $100 → $107

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83130 → 0.83500	Not filled	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.41670 → 1.42388	Not filled	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Bullish	0.94530 → 0.94767	Timed out	+0.14R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Bullish	2.00350 → 2.01232	Target hit	+1.47R
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.87780 → 1.88293	Timed out	-0.39R
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Bearish	111.170 → 110.549	Not filled	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	89.330 → 88.685	Not filled	–
CHFJPY	Bearish	189.500 → 188.464	Not filled	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Bearish	4125.00 → 4020.65	Timed out	-0.95R

28 Sep 2026 1 target · 2 stop · 3 timed out $100 → $91

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.13965 → 1.13593	Not filled	–
GBPUSD	Bearish	1.32510 → 1.32094	Timed out	-0.01R
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.41360 → 1.42000	Not filled	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Bullish	2.01100 → 2.02000	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Bearish	110.570 → 110.029	Target hit	+1.23R
CADJPY	Bearish	111.310 → 110.549	Timed out	+0.42R
NZDJPY	Bearish	89.140 → 88.500	Timed out	-0.17R
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46945 → 0.46727	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts combine technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to write one tradable plan per market for the next session — and only where the levels allow one. What each plan is worth is stated as an expected result, and how the plans actually ended is published below.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels on the daily candles.
AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model reads all of those factors together and writes the plan: entry, stop and two targets, with the levels it is built on.
Verification: every forecast is checked against the real market candles of its target day — target reached, stop hit, still open at the close, or entry never touched — and the full record is published on this page, win or lose.

Since August 2026 the model also receives the week's economic calendar: since 16 September 2026 a pair with a high-impact release on either of its currencies inside the plan window gets no directional plan at all (on the verified record those plans lost 0.35R per filled plan and were stopped half of the time, against a small gain and one stop in six for the rest), medium-impact releases are weighed as gap risk, and the events considered are recorded with each forecast. Since September 2026 it also reads the last 48 hours of our forex news feed and runs a few web searches for the day's macro context (central-bank expectations, intervention warnings, risk events), and the plans are treated as one book: at most three directional plans per currency, the rest set to neutral, so that one adverse headline cannot stop twenty plans that were really a single trade.

Forecasts are generated at 18:30 New York time, ninety minutes after the daily rollover, and cover the trading day that has just opened. Each plan is meant to run until 16:00 New York, an hour before the next rollover: that hour is left out on purpose, because spreads widen so much that a stop can be hit without the market ever moving there. The verification uses the same window.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
Entry Point: The price the order waits for. Every plan is a limit order — a buy limit for a long, a sell limit for a short — so the entry is a pullback from the price at the time the plan was written, and the numbers above hold whenever you place it.
Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
Targets: Two price objectives — a conservative one, which is the first real level worth at least as much as the plan risks, and an optimal one further out
Expected Result: What one plan is worth for every unit of risk, over a long run of plans like it — the single number that summarises the plan. Risk $100 on each and +0.20R means about $20 back on average per plan, −0.05R about $5 lost. It weighs three outcomes, not two: the target is reached, the stop is reached, or the order is still open when the window closes and is counted at its closing price — that last case is the majority, and the rate it is priced at comes from the verified record below, not from an assumption. Only plans with a positive expected result, and with target odds above the no-edge baseline, are promoted to the Top 3; when fewer than three clear the bar, the Top 3 is shorter, or empty
Target odds: the model's chance that the conservative target is hit before the stop and before the window closes, once the order fills. It is not shown next to each plan: with three possible outcomes a plan with no edge at all already sits at the no-edge baseline for a 1:1 plan is about 17%, not 50%, so the raw figure means nothing without that baseline printed beside it. The expected result carries the baseline inside, and the rates actually measured on the record are published below. Since 22 September 2026 the odds behind the expected result give the model's declared edge over that baseline only 50% credit: on the verified record the edges the model declared had not materialised, so the published expected result is computed from the credited odds, and the model's raw figure is kept in the data as model_probability
Risk/Reward Ratio: What the plan stands to make against what it risks. Never below 1:1 — a plan that risks more than it can win needs to be right most of the time just to break even

Trading Implementation

Read the expected result, not the reward-to-risk alone: a wide target that is rarely reached can be worth less than a near one, and the expected result is the number that already weighs the two together
Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
Adjust position size based on expected volatility
Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: A positive expected result is an estimate over many plans, not a promise about the next one, and no forecast here guarantees future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

ChartJudge: an AI second opinion on your chart

Paste the chart you are looking at and get the trend, the key levels, bull and bear scenarios and a plan with entry, stop and two targets, or the setups worth waiting for. Behind every analysis on 29 markets is the Forex Sentiment engine: retail positioning, the five-factor signal, levels on real prices and the calendar. Free to try with a verified email, no card needed.

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Background reading

From our blog, on what this page measures.

Trading Expectancy: How to Calculate It Correctly and Improve ItExpectancy measures the average value you can expect per trade. It is the number that explains why a strategy can win mo…Read the article Forex Trade Management After Entry: Breakeven, Trailing, Partial Close, and When to Leave It AloneBreakeven, trailing, partial closes and the daily rollover: what each management tool does to a one-session plan, what i…Read the article Forex Position Sizing: How Much Should You Invest?Position Sizing refers to determining the most suitable investment for a single trade. Deciding to invest 10 euros rathe…Read the article

Daily Forex Forecast

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Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

General Outlook

Volatility Forecast

Key Events to Monitor

Best Opportunities

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

EURUSD

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NZDUSD

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