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Daily Forex Forecast

AI-generated forex forecasts for the next trading day, including precise entry points, targets and stop losses. Updated every evening ahead of the Asian session to provide you with actionable trading opportunities.

Forecast generated: Wednesday, 19 August 2026 Forecast for: Thursday, 20 August 2026

You are viewing an archived forecast

This is the forex forecast generated for 19 August 2026. View current forecast

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

Broad USD weakness dominates going into 20 August, with EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD all closing on range highs while USDCHF and USDCAD printed fresh lows. The Swiss franc is the second driver, having crushed the CHF crosses and pushed CHFJPY through 197.0 into a breakout. Extreme retail short positioning in the strongest currencies (AUD 80%, EURJPY 82%, GBPJPY 88%) plus gold's record high argue for continuation rather than reversal, though stretched RSI readings favour buying pullbacks over chasing breakouts.

Volatility Forecast

Medium

Key Events to Monitor

  • Asian session follow-through in USD pairs after the broad breakout day; watch AUDUSD 0.71294 and NZDUSD 0.59378 range tops
  • London open test of EURUSD 1.16772 resistance and GBPUSD 1.36304
  • Stabilisation attempt in CHF crosses: EURCHF 0.9276-0.9350 and GBPCHF 1.09076 retest decide direction
  • New York session gold reaction at the 4499.15 record-high resistance with ATR near 100

Best Opportunities

AUDUSD Bullish
EURUSD Bullish
XAUUSD Bullish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The opportunities presented here are selected based on their high probability of success in the next 24 hours. Each forecast includes precise entry points, stop loss levels, and multiple targets to help you structure your trade. The success probability and risk/reward ratio allow you to evaluate the potential of each operation.

AUDUSD

Bullish High Confidence
70% prob.
R/R 1:0.52
Entry Point 0.71050
Stop Loss 0.70580 (47.0 pips)
Conservative Target 0.71294 (24.4 pips)
Optimal Target 0.71500 (45.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.71294 0.71500 0.72000
Support: 0.70873 0.70668 0.70223

Rationale

Higher lows plus an extreme 80% retail short reading is the strongest contrarian long on the board. A break of 0.7130 opens 0.7150 then 0.7200.

EURUSD

Bullish High Confidence
68% prob.
R/R 1:0.55
Entry Point 1.16400
Stop Loss 1.15720 (68.0 pips)
Conservative Target 1.16772 (37.2 pips)
Optimal Target 1.17000 (60.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.16772 1.17000 1.17500
Support: 1.16000 1.15756 1.15118

Rationale

Clean breakout above the 1.1677 range top with rising MACD and 68% of retail short. RSI 73 argues for buying the pullback toward 1.1600 rather than the spike.

XAUUSD

Bullish High Confidence
66% prob.
R/R 1:0.56
Entry Point 4442.00
Stop Loss 4340.00 (102.0 pts)
Conservative Target 4499.15 (57.1 pts)
Optimal Target 4550.00 (108.0 pts)

Key Levels

Resistance: 4499.15 4550.00 4600.00
Support: 4436.30 4400.00 4324.83

Rationale

Record high with an expanding MACD histogram confirms an intact uptrend. Buy dips into 4436-4400 with wide stops given the ~97 ATR.

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, as well as the estimated success probability. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair Direction Confidence Analysis Price Entry Stop Loss Target Probability Risk:Reward

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 1.16693
Entry Point 1.16400
Stop Loss 1.15720
Conservative Target 1.16772
Risk:Reward 1:0.55
Optimal Target 1.17000
Stop Loss Distance 68.0 pips
Target Distance 37.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.16772 1.17000 1.17500
Support: 1.16000 1.15756 1.15118

Rationale

Clean breakout above the 1.1677 range top with rising MACD and 68% of retail short. RSI 73 argues for buying the pullback toward 1.1600 rather than the spike.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 1.36000
Entry Point 1.35650
Stop Loss 1.34720
Conservative Target 1.36304
Risk:Reward 1:0.70
Optimal Target 1.36500
Stop Loss Distance 93.0 pips
Target Distance 65.4 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.36304 1.36500 1.37000
Support: 1.35338 1.35234 1.34743

Rationale

Breakout close at the top of a three-week ascending range with 71% retail short. Dips into 1.3534 remain buyable while 1.3474 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 158.398
Entry Point 158.900
Stop Loss 159.850
Conservative Target 158.044
Risk:Reward 1:0.90
Optimal Target 157.255
Stop Loss Distance 95.0 pips
Target Distance 85.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 159.643 159.780 160.883
Support: 158.044 157.255 156.673

Rationale

Sharp rejection from the 159.64/159.78 ceiling with negative MACD and RSI at 37. Selling rallies under 159.65 keeps risk contained within one ATR.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 0.79854
Entry Point 0.80080
Stop Loss 0.80620
Conservative Target 0.79831
Risk:Reward 1:0.46
Optimal Target 0.79500
Stop Loss Distance 54.0 pips
Target Distance 24.9 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.80392 0.81038 0.81283
Support: 0.79831 0.79500 0.79000

Rationale

Violent break of the 0.8060/0.8140 range with a bearish MACD cross and 63% of retail trapped long. Rallies toward 0.8040 favour fresh shorts.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 0.71179
Entry Point 0.71050
Stop Loss 0.70580
Conservative Target 0.71294
Risk:Reward 1:0.52
Optimal Target 0.71500
Stop Loss Distance 47.0 pips
Target Distance 24.4 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.71294 0.71500 0.72000
Support: 0.70873 0.70668 0.70223

Rationale

Higher lows plus an extreme 80% retail short reading is the strongest contrarian long on the board. A break of 0.7130 opens 0.7150 then 0.7200.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 1.38134
Entry Point 1.38520
Stop Loss 1.39120
Conservative Target 1.38034
Risk:Reward 1:0.81
Optimal Target 1.37500
Stop Loss Distance 60.0 pips
Target Distance 48.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.38617 1.39080 1.39584
Support: 1.38034 1.37500 1.37000

Rationale

Persistent lower highs with retail 65% long into a fresh low. RSI 25.7 favours selling the bounce near 1.3860 rather than the breakdown itself.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 0.59327
Entry Point 0.59200
Stop Loss 0.58720
Conservative Target 0.59378
Risk:Reward 1:0.37
Optimal Target 0.59500
Stop Loss Distance 48.0 pips
Target Distance 17.8 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.59378 0.59500 0.60000
Support: 0.58753 0.58604 0.58214

Rationale

Range top at 0.5938 under attack with 63% retail short supporting the upside. Only a close back under 0.5875 negates the breakout.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.85803
Entry Point 0.85890
Stop Loss 0.85520
Conservative Target 0.86000
Risk:Reward 1:0.30
Optimal Target 0.86515
Stop Loss Distance 37.0 pips
Target Distance 11.0 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.85842 0.86000 0.86515
Support: 0.85528 0.85426 0.85318

Rationale

Price presses the 0.8584 range ceiling with the MACD histogram flipping positive. Only a confirmed break gives an edge, otherwise the 0.8532-0.8584 range holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 184.840
Entry Point 184.450
Stop Loss 183.400
Conservative Target 184.943
Risk:Reward 1:0.47
Optimal Target 185.905
Stop Loss Distance 105.0 pips
Target Distance 49.3 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 184.943 185.905 187.471
Support: 184.395 183.928 183.169

Rationale

Higher lows since 181.3 with a positive MACD histogram and a lopsided 82% retail short. Dips to 184.40 are buyable while 183.93 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.93183
Entry Point 0.92850
Stop Loss 0.92450
Conservative Target 0.93493
Risk:Reward 1:1.61
Optimal Target 0.93722
Stop Loss Distance 40.0 pips
Target Distance 64.3 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.93493 0.93722 0.94113
Support: 0.92757 0.92300 0.92000

Rationale

A 90-pip CHF-driven collapse leaves the pair volatile, but 84% retail short caps downside conviction. Only a stabilisation above 0.9276 offers a low-conviction bounce trade.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.63942
Entry Point 1.63360
Stop Loss 1.62520
Conservative Target 1.64130
Risk:Reward 1:0.92
Optimal Target 1.65045
Stop Loss Distance 84.0 pips
Target Distance 77.0 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.64130 1.65045 1.66191
Support: 1.63340 1.63008 1.62581

Rationale

Well-defined 1.6260-1.6450 range with flat momentum and neutral retail books. Only the edges are tradeable, favouring longs near 1.6334 support.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.61187
Entry Point 1.61320
Stop Loss 1.61920
Conservative Target 1.60694
Risk:Reward 1:1.04
Optimal Target 1.60397
Stop Loss Distance 60.0 pips
Target Distance 62.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.61362 1.62431 1.62680
Support: 1.60694 1.60397 1.60076

Rationale

Two weeks of compression between 1.6040 and 1.6136 with MACD near zero. 60% retail long slightly favours fading the 1.6136 range top.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.96694
Entry Point 1.97480
Stop Loss 1.98450
Conservative Target 1.96617
Risk:Reward 1:0.89
Optimal Target 1.95750
Stop Loss Distance 97.0 pips
Target Distance 86.3 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.96873 1.97568 1.98321
Support: 1.96617 1.95750 1.95502

Rationale

Repeated failures above 1.9757 keep price inside 1.955-1.978 with no momentum edge. Fading the upper band is the only defined setup.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 215.424
Entry Point 215.000
Stop Loss 213.600
Conservative Target 216.219
Risk:Reward 1:0.87
Optimal Target 218.014
Stop Loss Distance 140.0 pips
Target Distance 121.9 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 216.219 218.014 218.684
Support: 214.836 214.534 212.540

Rationale

Base built above 214.5 with the MACD histogram turning positive and an extreme 88% retail short. Longs from 214.9-215.2 target 216.2 then 218.0.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.08602
Entry Point 1.08650
Stop Loss 1.07980
Conservative Target 1.09076
Risk:Reward 1:0.64
Optimal Target 1.09220
Stop Loss Distance 67.0 pips
Target Distance 42.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.09076 1.09220 1.09982
Support: 1.08527 1.08105 1.07000

Rationale

A 140-pip CHF squeeze broke the August uptrend, yet 73% retail short warns against selling the low. The 1.0908 retest decides direction.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.91065
Entry Point 1.90800
Stop Loss 1.89980
Conservative Target 1.91738
Risk:Reward 1:1.14
Optimal Target 1.91913
Stop Loss Distance 82.0 pips
Target Distance 93.8 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.91738 1.91913 1.92601
Support: 1.90764 1.90176 1.90032

Rationale

Flat RSI at 50 and balanced retail books inside the 1.9020-1.9260 box. Only range-trading from the 1.9076 support edge is justified.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.87853
Entry Point 1.87850
Stop Loss 1.87120
Conservative Target 1.88522
Risk:Reward 1:0.92
Optimal Target 1.89536
Stop Loss Distance 73.0 pips
Target Distance 67.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.88522 1.89536 1.90330
Support: 1.87830 1.87388 1.87127

Rationale

Price is glued to the 1.8780-1.8850 pivot zone after drifting from 1.8953. Only a break below 1.8739 reopens the downtrend.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 2.29234
Entry Point 2.29620
Stop Loss 2.30980
Conservative Target 2.28871
Risk:Reward 1:0.55
Optimal Target 2.28049
Stop Loss Distance 136.0 pips
Target Distance 74.9 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 2.29759 2.30941 2.31043
Support: 2.28871 2.28839 2.28049

Rationale

Bearish outside-day rejection from 2.3094 with RSI under 50. Shorts are favoured below 2.2976 toward 2.2885.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 112.746
Entry Point 112.400
Stop Loss 111.600
Conservative Target 112.811
Risk:Reward 1:0.51
Optimal Target 113.612
Stop Loss Distance 80.0 pips
Target Distance 41.1 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 112.811 113.612 114.669
Support: 112.228 112.184 111.198

Rationale

Series of higher lows off 109.2 with positive MACD and 77% retail short. Longs are valid while 112.18 support survives.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 114.674
Entry Point 114.250
Stop Loss 113.500
Conservative Target 114.884
Risk:Reward 1:0.85
Optimal Target 115.205
Stop Loss Distance 75.0 pips
Target Distance 63.4 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 114.884 115.205 116.024
Support: 114.084 113.991 113.523

Rationale

Constructive recovery with an expanding MACD histogram and 64% retail short. Buy dips toward 114.10 while 113.99 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 93.974
Entry Point 93.450
Stop Loss 92.750
Conservative Target 94.042
Risk:Reward 1:0.85
Optimal Target 94.297
Stop Loss Distance 70.0 pips
Target Distance 59.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 94.042 94.297 95.309
Support: 93.317 92.816 91.938

Rationale

Capped by 94.04-94.30 for two weeks with the MACD histogram rolling over and neutral retail books. Only a break of that ceiling changes the picture.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 198.356
Entry Point 197.600
Stop Loss 196.300
Conservative Target 198.374
Risk:Reward 1:0.60
Optimal Target 200.956
Stop Loss Distance 130.0 pips
Target Distance 77.4 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 198.374 200.956 201.594
Support: 197.007 196.386 195.472

Rationale

Powerful breakout from the 195.5-197.0 base as CHF outperforms, with 63% retail short adding fuel. Pullbacks to 197.0 are the preferred entry.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.56839
Entry Point 0.56520
Stop Loss 0.56180
Conservative Target 0.57191
Risk:Reward 1:1.97
Optimal Target 0.57563
Stop Loss Distance 34.0 pips
Target Distance 67.1 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.57191 0.57563 0.57810
Support: 0.56444 0.56211 0.55518

Rationale

One candle erased the entire August rally, but 75% retail short blocks conviction shorts at the low. Neutral until 0.5644 or 0.5719 gives way.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.98318
Entry Point 0.98220
Stop Loss 0.97780
Conservative Target 0.98473
Risk:Reward 1:0.58
Optimal Target 0.98564
Stop Loss Distance 44.0 pips
Target Distance 25.3 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.98473 0.98564 0.98843
Support: 0.98198 0.98078 0.97835

Rationale

Tight 0.9808-0.9879 consolidation with MACD flat around zero. No edge until the range breaks; only support-edge longs are defensible.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.19978
Entry Point 1.19520
Stop Loss 1.18880
Conservative Target 1.20191
Risk:Reward 1:1.05
Optimal Target 1.20720
Stop Loss Distance 64.0 pips
Target Distance 67.1 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.20191 1.20720 1.21025
Support: 1.19419 1.19136 1.19000

Rationale

Failure at 1.2091 conflicts with 70% retail short and a positive MACD histogram. Stay inside 1.1942-1.2072 and only buy the lower edge.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.47375
Entry Point 0.47120
Stop Loss 0.46780
Conservative Target 0.47586
Risk:Reward 1:1.37
Optimal Target 0.47736
Stop Loss Distance 34.0 pips
Target Distance 46.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.47586 0.47736 0.47925
Support: 0.47100 0.47037 0.46799

Rationale

CHF strength dumped price to the bottom of the 0.4704-0.4818 range while 78% of retail is already short. Buying near 0.4710 beats chasing weakness.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.81947
Entry Point 0.81680
Stop Loss 0.81140
Conservative Target 0.82121
Risk:Reward 1:0.82
Optimal Target 0.82320
Stop Loss Distance 54.0 pips
Target Distance 44.1 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.82121 0.82320 0.82657
Support: 0.81649 0.81435 0.81185

Rationale

Choppy 0.8124-0.8212 range with RSI at 52 and split retail positioning. Only fading the range extremes offers value.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.57811
Entry Point 0.58100
Stop Loss 0.58500
Conservative Target 0.57744
Risk:Reward 1:0.89
Optimal Target 0.57396
Stop Loss Distance 40.0 pips
Target Distance 35.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.58229 0.58488 0.58644
Support: 0.57744 0.57396 0.56805

Rationale

Sharp reversal through the August advance with MACD rolling over and 57% retail long offside. Shorts stay valid below 0.5823 resistance.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 4487.93
Entry Point 4442.00
Stop Loss 4340.00
Conservative Target 4499.15
Risk:Reward 1:0.56
Optimal Target 4550.00
Stop Loss Distance 102.0 pts
Target Distance 57.1 pts

Key Levels

Resistance: 4499.15 4550.00 4600.00
Support: 4436.30 4400.00 4324.83

Rationale

Record high with an expanding MACD histogram confirms an intact uptrend. Buy dips into 4436-4400 with wide stops given the ~97 ATR.

Historical Accuracy

Risking $100 per plan $90 back

20 plans traded across 1 verified day (19 Aug 2026)

  • Target hit 30% (6)
  • Stop hit 35% (7)
  • Timed out 35% (7)

Every plan is checked against the real market candles of its target day. “Timed out” means the order was still open at the end of the day and is counted at its closing price — not as a loss. 2 plans never reached the entry price, so they are excluded.

See the full breakdown
46% Win rate 6 of 13 plans closed at target or stop
-0.10R Average result per traded plan, if you risked the same amount on every one
-0.18R Timed-out average how those 7 orders ended, on average

A high win rate alone doesn’t mean profit: what matters is how much each win and each loss is worth. That is what the number at the top measures.

Win rate by direction

Bullish

42%
5 of 12 plans

Bearish

1 of 1 plan — too few to rate

Per-pair win rates appear once a pair has at least 3 verified plans.

Day by day

19 Aug 2026 6 target · 7 stop · 7 timed out $100 → $90
PairDirectionEntry → TargetOutcomeResult
EURUSD Bullish 1.15640 → 1.15854 Not filled
GBPUSD Bullish 1.35210 → 1.35540 Not filled
USDJPY Neutral Range Range broken
USDCHF Neutral Range Range broken
AUDUSD Bullish 0.70810 → 0.71198 Target hit +1.34R
USDCAD Bearish 1.39050 → 1.38616 Target hit +0.79R
NZDUSD Bullish 0.58720 → 0.59088 Target hit +1.94R
EURGBP Neutral Range Range broken
EURJPY Bullish 184.530 → 184.909 Target hit +0.39R
EURCHF Bullish 0.93900 → 0.94113 Stop hit -1.00R
EURAUD Bearish 1.63580 → 1.63008 Timed out -0.55R
EURCAD Bearish 1.61130 → 1.60442 Timed out -0.24R
EURNZD Neutral Range Range held
GBPJPY Bullish 215.450 → 216.219 Timed out -0.22R
GBPCHF Bullish 1.09850 → 1.10112 Stop hit -1.00R
GBPAUD Bearish 1.91050 → 1.90764 Timed out +0.10R
GBPCAD Neutral Range Range broken
GBPNZD Neutral Range Range broken
AUDJPY Bullish 113.060 → 113.612 Stop hit -1.00R
CADJPY Bullish 114.640 → 115.205 Timed out -0.13R
NZDJPY Bullish 93.730 → 94.042 Target hit +0.59R
CHFJPY Neutral Range Range broken
AUDCHF Bullish 0.57540 → 0.57810 Stop hit -1.00R
AUDCAD Bullish 0.98430 → 0.98749 Timed out -0.15R
AUDNZD Bullish 1.20430 → 1.20912 Stop hit -1.00R
NZDCHF Bullish 0.47660 → 0.47736 Stop hit -1.00R
NZDCAD Bearish 0.81930 → 0.81430 Timed out -0.05R
CADCHF Bullish 0.58280 → 0.58616 Stop hit -1.00R
XAUUSD Bullish 4330.00 → 4436.30 Target hit +1.16R

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts use an advanced system that combines technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to identify high-probability trading opportunities for the next 24 hours.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

  1. Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
  2. Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels across multiple timeframes.
  3. AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model analyzes all factors, identifies high-probability patterns and generates specific forecasts with entry points, stop loss and targets.
  4. Verification and Optimization: Forecasts are continuously verified against actual results, with accuracy data used to constantly improve the algorithm.

Forecasts are generated every evening (European time), ahead of the Asian trading session, and cover the next trading day.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

  • Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
  • Entry Point: The optimal price level to enter the market
  • Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
  • Targets: Two price objectives - a conservative one with higher probability and an optimal one with greater potential
  • Success Probability: The estimated percentage that the forecast will reach at least the conservative target
  • Risk/Reward Ratio: The ratio between potential gain and potential loss

Trading Implementation

  • Focus on high confidence forecasts (70%+ success probability)
  • Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
  • Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
  • Adjust position size based on expected volatility
  • Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
  • Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: Even forecasts with high success probability do not guarantee future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

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