Daily Forex Forecast

Every night our AI builds a trade plan for every market that offers one — entry, stop, two targets, with the reward-to-risk and what the plan is worth on average per unit risked in plain sight; pairs it reads as directionless get a range instead. Then the market judges it: every plan is checked against real candles and published again, win or lose. And the rollover hour, when spreads blow out and stops get hit for nothing, stays outside the plan on purpose.

Forecast generated: Wednesday, 07 October 2026 Forecast for: Thursday, 08 October 2026 Plan window: Wed 23:00 – Thu 20:00 UTC Stop hit on about 2 in 10 plans · verified record

Archive 2026-10-07

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

The dollar is firm as US Treasury yields hold near multi-decade highs and markets weigh further Fed tightening, while French fiscal worries keep the euro under pressure. Today's plans express three themes: long USD, short EUR and short NZD, mostly through pairs free of high-impact data. Sterling pairs stay flat ahead of BOE Governor Bailey's speech, and the yen is avoided given intervention risk.

Volatility Forecast

Medium

Key Events to Monitor

GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 08:15 NY (High): all GBP pairs neutral
USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 04:30 NY and Unemployment Claims at 08:30 NY (forecast 200K)
EUR: French fiscal stress keeps EURUSD pressing the 1.11612-1.11647 double low
JPY: intervention risk as USDJPY approaches 159.036 after this year's yen-buying operations

Best Opportunities

USDCHF Bullish

AUDUSD Bearish

EURCHF Bearish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The Top 3 are the pairs the model singles out as the best of the session, kept only when what the plan is worth — the odds of the target, the reward-to-risk and the share of plans that run out of time, read together — is positive; if fewer than three clear that bar, the list is shorter — sometimes empty. Each forecast carries an entry, a stop loss and two targets, so the whole plan is on the table before you decide. No plan is published below 1:1: if no real level on the chart offers at least as much reward as risk, the pair is published as Neutral instead. The whole chain is ours — our AI generates the plan, our own geometry rules validate every level server-side, and our verification republishes the outcome win or lose — and the same feed powers the MT5 Trade Panel. On the verified record when these plans were written (303 filled plans), 10% hit the target, 24% hit the stop and 66% timed out at the window close: that is the mix behind the expected result shown on each plan.

USDCHF

Bullish Medium Confidence

R/R 1:1.48

Expected result +0.08 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.83200 Buy limit

Stop Loss 0.82920 (28.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.83615 (41.5 pips)

Optimal Target 0.83822 (62.2 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.83415 0.83615 0.83822

Support: 0.83045 0.82761 0.82272

Rationale

Three higher closes off 0.82272 with 65% retail short; buy the dip with the stop under 0.83045, targeting 0.83615 once 0.83415 gives way. Fed-hike pricing and high Treasury yields back the dollar, but Waller and claims keep this medium.

Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail

AUDUSD

Bearish Medium Confidence

R/R 1:1.18

Expected result +0.08 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.69710 Sell limit

Stop Loss 0.69950 (24.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.69426 (28.4 pips)

Optimal Target 0.69220 (49.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.69898 0.70239 0.70450

Support: 0.69607 0.69426 0.69220

Rationale

The bounce stalled at 0.69898 with MACD widening lower and 70% retail long; sell the retest with the stop above 0.69898, targeting yesterday's 0.69426 low. Rising US yields support the dollar, with Waller and claims the medium-impact risks.

Full AUDUSD analysis Sentiment detail

EURCHF

Bearish Medium Confidence

R/R 1:1.14

Expected result +0.09 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.93360 Sell limit

Stop Loss 0.93720 (36.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.92951 (40.9 pips)

Optimal Target 0.92718 (64.2 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.93490 0.93683 0.93801

Support: 0.92951 0.92718 0.92597

Rationale

The broken range base near 0.9366 now caps price, and French fiscal stress has made EURCHF a risk gauge; sell under it with the stop above 0.93683. Target yesterday's 0.92951 low, then 0.92718.

Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail

These plans can go straight onto your chart. The Trade Panel EA reads this same forecast inside MetaTrader 5 — entry, stop and both targets — and prefills the pending order at the published price, so the trade you place is the one measured on this page. The Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws the plan on the chart of that market, with stop and target you can drag. It is available now — one license covers both panels. New to trade panels? How an MT5 trade panel places these plans.

Discover the Trade Panel EA

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, the reward-to-risk ratio and the expected result it is worth per unit of risk. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair	Direction	Confidence	Analysis Price	Entry	Stop Loss	Target	Expected result	Risk:Reward	Result
EURCHF	Bearish	Medium	0.93296	0.93360Sell limit	0.93720	0.92951	+0.09R	1:1.14	+0.35RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.09R Analysis Price 0.93296 Entry Point 0.93360 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.93720 Conservative Target 0.92951 Risk:Reward 1:1.14 Optimal Target 0.92718 Stop Loss Distance 36.0 pips Target Distance 40.9 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.93490 0.93683 0.93801 Support: 0.92951 0.92718 0.92597 Rationale The broken range base near 0.9366 now caps price, and French fiscal stress has made EURCHF a risk gauge; sell under it with the stop above 0.93683. Target yesterday's 0.92951 low, then 0.92718. Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail
EURCAD	Bearish	Medium	1.59652	1.59730Sell limit	1.60110	1.59058	+0.09R	1:1.77	+0.82RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.09R Analysis Price 1.59652 Entry Point 1.59730 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 1.60110 Conservative Target 1.59058 Risk:Reward 1:1.77 Optimal Target 1.59000 Stop Loss Distance 38.0 pips Target Distance 67.2 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.60006 1.60671 1.61027 Support: 1.59476 1.59058 1.59000 Rationale Fresh low at 1.59058 with MACD widening and 75% retail long; sell the pullback with the stop above 1.60006. French fiscal stress weighs on EUR while oil jumping on Hormuz tanker attacks supports CAD. Full EURCAD analysis Sentiment detail
USDCHF	Bullish	Medium	0.83280	0.83200Buy limit	0.82920	0.83615	+0.08R	1:1.48	-0.21RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.08R Analysis Price 0.83280 Entry Point 0.83200 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.82920 Conservative Target 0.83615 Risk:Reward 1:1.48 Optimal Target 0.83822 Stop Loss Distance 28.0 pips Target Distance 41.5 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.83415 0.83615 0.83822 Support: 0.83045 0.82761 0.82272 Rationale Three higher closes off 0.82272 with 65% retail short; buy the dip with the stop under 0.83045, targeting 0.83615 once 0.83415 gives way. Fed-hike pricing and high Treasury yields back the dollar, but Waller and claims keep this medium. Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDUSD	Bearish	Medium	0.69644	0.69710Sell limit	0.69950	0.69426	+0.08R	1:1.18	+0.45RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.08R Analysis Price 0.69644 Entry Point 0.69710 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.69950 Conservative Target 0.69426 Risk:Reward 1:1.18 Optimal Target 0.69220 Stop Loss Distance 24.0 pips Target Distance 28.4 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.69898 0.70239 0.70450 Support: 0.69607 0.69426 0.69220 Rationale The bounce stalled at 0.69898 with MACD widening lower and 70% retail long; sell the retest with the stop above 0.69898, targeting yesterday's 0.69426 low. Rising US yields support the dollar, with Waller and claims the medium-impact risks. Full AUDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURUSD	Bearish	Medium	1.12026	1.12100Sell limit	1.12570	1.11612	+0.07R	1:1.04	-0.08RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.07R Analysis Price 1.12026 Entry Point 1.12100 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 1.12570 Conservative Target 1.11612 Risk:Reward 1:1.04 Optimal Target 1.11500 Stop Loss Distance 47.0 pips Target Distance 48.8 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.12767 1.13367 1.13801 Support: 1.11647 1.11612 1.11500 Rationale Lower highs, 78% retail long and French fiscal stress against a tightening Fed keep the euro offered; sell the snapback toward the 1.11612 double low. Vol stop at 0.76 ATR since 1.12767 is too far for a 1:1 target, and USD claims at 08:30 NY keep this medium. Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCHF	Bearish	Medium	0.46642	0.46690Sell limit	0.46860	0.46515	+0.07R	1:1.03	+0.61RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.07R Analysis Price 0.46642 Entry Point 0.46690 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 0.46860 Conservative Target 0.46515 Risk:Reward 1:1.03 Optimal Target 0.46357 Stop Loss Distance 17.0 pips Target Distance 17.5 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.46811 0.47081 0.47237 Support: 0.46679 0.46515 0.46357 Rationale The rebound failed at 0.46811 under the broken September range, with 74% retail long; stop above it, target 0.46515 then 0.46357. Risk-off from rising yields and Hormuz tensions supports CHF, and neither leg has a High-impact release. Full NZDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDNZD	Bullish	Low	1.24355	1.24270Buy limit	1.23900	1.24650	+0.05R	1:1.03	-0.18RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.05R Analysis Price 1.24355 Entry Point 1.24270 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.23900 Conservative Target 1.24650 Risk:Reward 1:1.03 Optimal Target 1.24906 Stop Loss Distance 37.0 pips Target Distance 38.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.24367 1.24650 1.24906 Support: 1.24078 1.23565 1.22827 Rationale Expresses NZD weakness: dips held above 1.24078 and retail is 74% short; vol stop at 0.53 ATR below that support, targeting the 1.2465 range high. Low confidence as momentum has paused under the top. Full AUDNZD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPUSD	Neutral	Low	1.32180	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.32180 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.32853 1.33110 1.33488 Support: 1.32040 1.31934 1.31811 Rationale BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 08:15 NY (High impact on GBP), so no directional plan on this pair. The pair is also mid-range between 1.31811 and 1.3311 with no positioning edge. Full GBPUSD analysis Sentiment detail
USDJPY	Neutral	Low	157.990	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 157.990 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 158.511 159.036 159.777 Support: 158.025 157.771 156.948 Rationale The bullish technical target of 159.036 runs into the zone where Japan has intervened this year, and BoJ officials keep signalling further hikes. Not buying dips into intervention risk; the long-USD theme is carried by EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDCHF. Full USDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
USDCAD	Neutral	Low	1.42543	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.42543 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.42931 1.43000 1.43500 Support: 1.41960 1.41543 1.40867 Rationale Redundant with the long-USD plans in EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDCHF. Price is overbought at the top of the 1.4196-1.4293 shelf and oil jumping on Hormuz tanker attacks supports CAD. Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDUSD	Neutral	Low	0.56004	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.56004 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.56279 0.56440 0.56872 Support: 0.55851 0.55798 0.55500 Rationale Redundant with the long-USD plans (EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF) and the short-NZD plans in NZDCHF and AUDNZD. RSI 28 at the 0.558 floor also limits the fresh downside. Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURGBP	Neutral	Low	0.84753	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.84753 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.84930 0.85079 0.85472 Support: 0.84547 0.84474 0.84000 Rationale BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 08:15 NY (High impact on GBP), so no directional plan on this pair. The bearish trend is intact but oversold at 0.84474. Full EURGBP analysis Sentiment detail
EURJPY	Neutral	Low	176.985	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 176.985 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 177.902 178.336 179.309 Support: 176.539 176.212 176.000 Rationale Redundant with the short-EUR plans in EURUSD, EURCHF and EURCAD. JPY drivers are mixed between BoJ hike talk and a weak yen, and the 176.2 floor is close. Full EURJPY analysis Sentiment detail
EURAUD	Neutral	Low	1.60857	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.60857 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.61453 1.62272 1.63350 Support: 1.60807 1.60639 1.60470 Rationale Redundant with the short-EUR plans in EURUSD, EURCHF and EURCAD. With the stop above 1.61453, no support below gives 1:1 before the 1.6047 break. Full EURAUD analysis Sentiment detail
EURNZD	Neutral	Low	2.00031	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.00031 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.00399 2.01090 2.01643 Support: 1.99438 1.99334 1.98728 Rationale Neutral bias with RSI on the midline inside the 1.98728-2.01643 range. Both legs are weak, so there is no directional edge. Full EURNZD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPJPY	Neutral	Low	208.828	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 208.828 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 209.993 210.201 211.275 Support: 208.675 207.866 207.300 Rationale BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 08:15 NY (High impact on GBP), so no directional plan on this pair. Price also sits mid-box between 206.883 and 210.201. Full GBPJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCHF	Neutral	Low	1.10079	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.10079 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.10459 1.10662 1.11044 Support: 1.09820 1.09503 1.09110 Rationale BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 08:15 NY (High impact on GBP), so no directional plan on this pair. Momentum is flat in the middle of the 1.0889-1.1104 band. Full GBPCHF analysis Sentiment detail
GBPAUD	Neutral	Low	1.89794	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.89794 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.90170 1.90693 1.91148 Support: 1.89534 1.89388 1.88552 Rationale BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 08:15 NY (High impact on GBP), so no directional plan on this pair. Highs have also been descending since 1.91148. Full GBPAUD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCAD	Neutral	Low	1.88378	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.88378 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.88508 1.88934 1.89256 Support: 1.87948 1.87486 1.87117 Rationale BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 08:15 NY (High impact on GBP), so no directional plan on this pair. The breakout structure is intact but must wait for the speech. Full GBPCAD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPNZD	Neutral	Low	2.36013	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.36013 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.36646 2.37000 Support: 2.35392 2.34420 2.33432 Rationale BOE Gov Bailey speaks at 08:15 NY (High impact on GBP), so no directional plan on this pair. RSI at 70 also argues against chasing the 2.36646 high. Full GBPNZD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDJPY	Neutral	Low	110.029	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 110.029 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 110.641 111.441 112.616 Support: 109.863 109.666 109.233 Rationale Neutral bias: a corrective rebound with RSI under 50 and no retail edge. Yesterday's 110.641 rejection leaves the pair mid-range. Full AUDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CADJPY	Neutral	Low	110.859	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 110.859 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 111.297 111.514 112.586 Support: 110.798 110.764 110.375 Rationale Range-bound in the 110.15-111.514 box; a stop above 111.514 leaves no 1:1 target before the box floor. Oil strength for CAD also argues against the bearish lean. Full CADJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDJPY	Neutral	Low	88.481	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 88.481 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 89.073 89.511 90.542 Support: 88.371 88.116 88.000 Rationale Redundant with the short-NZD plans in NZDCHF and AUDNZD. Price is pinned in the 88.12-89.07 band with selling momentum easing. Full NZDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CHFJPY	Neutral	Low	189.709	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 189.709 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 190.374 190.944 192.478 Support: 189.516 189.082 188.455 Rationale Neutral bias with MACD and RSI disagreeing. Both currencies are havens in a risk-off tape, so there is no edge. Full CHFJPY analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.57999	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.57999 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.58163 0.58364 0.58571 Support: 0.57875 0.57795 0.57472 Rationale Neutral bias: RSI on the midline and MACD under its signal inside the old range. Retail positioning alone is not enough of an edge. Full AUDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.99252	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.99252 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.99256 0.99581 0.99690 Support: 0.98958 0.98389 0.98193 Rationale Low-confidence range lean with flat momentum; the only argument is 79% retail short. AUD exposure is already carried by AUDUSD and AUDNZD. Full AUDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.79816	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.79816 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.79936 0.80161 0.80394 Support: 0.79815 0.79635 0.79504 Rationale Redundant with the short-NZD plans in NZDCHF and AUDNZD. No support below 0.79504 for an optimal target. Full NZDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
CADCHF	Neutral	Low	0.58436	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.58436 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.58638 0.58866 0.59074 Support: 0.58356 0.58280 0.58152 Rationale Low-confidence lean with RSI on the midline and flat momentum. No clean edge between two currencies both supported by oil and haven flows. Full CADCHF analysis Sentiment detail
XAUUSD	Neutral	Low	4104.59	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 4104.59 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 4120.34 4166.08 4226.97 Support: 4066.46 4019.14 3995.98 Rationale Redundant with the long-USD plans in EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDCHF. Mainland China reopening after its week-long holiday also adds two-way demand risk for gold in Asia. Full XAUUSD analysis Sentiment detail

Expected result is in R — multiples of what the plan risks. +0.20R on a $100 risk means about $20 back, on average over a long run of plans like it — an estimate, not a result.

Verified record

The three we pick

+$4 average per $100 risked

76 of 114 picks filled, over 38 verified days · target hit 16%

Every plan on the board

−$7 average per $100 risked

321 plans over 38 verified days · target hit 10%

38 verified days is a short record, and neither number is proof yet. On 76 picks the honest range around the +$4 runs from −$13 to +$22 — wide enough to include zero. We publish both figures as they grow, win or lose.

How solid is this, exactly?

What the two numbers are. The board is the whole sheet, all 29 markets, and it includes every plan that did not clear the bar for the Top 3. The Top 3 are the ones declared the evening before, when the forecast is published — not picked afterwards: every one of them is in the dated archive, so you can check any past day yourself. Of 114 picks published, 76 were actually filled; the rest never reached their entry price and are excluded, here as everywhere else.

Why the sample is weaker than the count suggests. 20 of the 76 picks lost the full $100, against 43 that closed above zero — the shape of the record so far. One session accounts for 100% of the Top 3 result, and 25 of the 76 picks were the same underlying bet (long AUD) expressed on different pairs, so they are fewer independent outcomes than they look. The board figure carries its own range, −$15 to +$1, which also includes zero.

What this sample cannot show. That the picks beat the board, and that either of them makes money over time. What it does show is the method: every plan checked against the real candles of its day and republished, whatever it did.

How the 321 plans of the board ended (19 Aug – 9 Oct 2026)

Target hit 10% (32)
Stop hit 24% (78)
Timed out 66% (211)

Every plan is checked against the real market candles of its target day. “Timed out” means the order was still open at the end of the day and is counted at its closing price — not as a loss. 155 plans never reached the entry price, so they are excluded.

See the full breakdown

29% Win rate 32 of 110 plans closed at target or stop

-0.07R Actual average result what the plans really returned, per traded plan, risking the same amount on every one

+0.08R Timed-out average how those 211 orders ended, on average

A high win rate alone doesn’t mean profit: what matters is how much each win and each loss is worth. That is what the number at the top measures.

Win rate by direction

Bullish

22%

14 of 65 plans

Bearish

40%

18 of 45 plans

Win rate by pair

Pair	Win rate	Plans
GBPJPY	75%	3 / 4
EURJPY	67%	2 / 3
NZDJPY	67%	2 / 3
AUDCHF	50%	3 / 6
NZDCAD	50%	2 / 4
AUDUSD	43%	3 / 7
USDCAD	40%	2 / 5
XAUUSD	33%	1 / 3
GBPUSD	33%	1 / 3
CHFJPY	33%	1 / 3
EURCHF	30%	3 / 10
EURGBP	25%	1 / 4
GBPAUD	25%	1 / 4
EURNZD	25%	1 / 4
EURUSD	25%	1 / 4
USDCHF	25%	1 / 4
USDJPY	25%	1 / 4
NZDUSD	25%	1 / 4
AUDJPY	20%	1 / 5
GBPCAD	0%	0 / 6
NZDCHF	0%	0 / 4
AUDCAD	0%	0 / 3
GBPNZD	0%	0 / 3

What each outcome means

Target hit: Price reached the conservative target without touching the stop first, and the minute-by-minute prices of our data feed (bid and ask, the sides a real order fills and closes on) confirm it happened after the order filled; where a day has no complete minute record, the hourly candles take over. A price printed before the entry was reached does not count: there was no position to close.
Stop hit: Price reached the stop before the target. Counts as a loss. When a day touched both levels, the minute prices say which one came first (the hourly candles where the minute record is incomplete) — and a stop can only be hit after the entry filled, never before. In the rare event that both land inside the same minute, the tie goes to the loss.
Timed out: The order was still open when the day ended: it is closed at that day's closing price, so the result can be slightly positive or slightly negative. Not a loss.
Not filled: Price never reached the entry, so the order would never have opened. Excluded from every rate — counting it either way would be inventing a trade that did not exist.
Range held / Range broken: Only for neutral calls, where the forecast says a pair has no direction and publishes no trade. We check whether the day closed inside the levels we published: held if it did, broken if it did not. Neither counts in the statistics, because there was no order to place.

The Result column is in R, multiples of what that plan put at risk: +1.50R means one and a half times the risk, −1R is a full stop loss. It is the same unit as the headline above, which is simply the average R turned into dollars.

Day by day

9 Oct 2026 1 target · 3 stop · 5 timed out $100 → $84

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12210 → 1.11612	Timed out	+0.61R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83060 → 0.83464	Timed out	-0.23R
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84790 → 0.84613	Target hit	+1.04R
EURJPY	Bearish	177.250 → 176.516	Timed out	-0.04R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90000 → 1.90693	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35920 → 2.36646	Timed out	-0.18R
AUDJPY	Bearish	110.000 → 109.233	Stop hit	-1.00R
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46650 → 0.46357	Timed out	+0.35R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Bearish	4147.00 → 4066.46	Stop hit	-1.00R

8 Oct 2026 0 target · 0 stop · 7 timed out $100 → $125

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12100 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.08R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83200 → 0.83615	Timed out	-0.21R
AUDUSD	Bearish	0.69710 → 0.69426	Timed out	+0.45R
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93360 → 0.92951	Timed out	+0.35R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Bearish	1.59730 → 1.59058	Timed out	+0.82R
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24270 → 1.24650	Timed out	-0.18R
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46690 → 0.46515	Timed out	+0.61R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

7 Oct 2026 1 target · 1 stop · 0 timed out $100 → $106

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84862 → 0.84547	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Bearish	178.280 → 177.029	Target hit	+1.12R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88480 → 1.89118	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35780 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	89.080 → 88.329	Not filled	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCAD	Bearish	0.80000 → 0.79711	Not filled	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

6 Oct 2026 0 target · 3 stop · 4 timed out $100 → $49

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12290 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.50R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42500 → 1.42931	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56080 → 0.55798	Timed out	-0.67R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84890 → 0.84547	Timed out	+0.35R
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93290 → 0.93018	Stop hit	-1.00R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88400 → 1.88934	Not filled	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35880 → 2.36646	Timed out	+0.25R
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46580 → 0.46330	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

5 Oct 2026 0 target · 2 stop · 3 timed out $100 → $37

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12650 → 1.12150	Not filled	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDUSD	Bearish	0.69620 → 0.69220	Timed out	-0.36R
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56260 → 0.55858	Not filled	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURJPY	Bearish	177.850 → 176.595	Not filled	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93370 → 0.93018	Not filled	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90350 → 1.91148	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88700 → 1.89527	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Bearish	109.880 → 109.233	Timed out	-0.50R
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46610 → 0.46330	Not filled	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Bearish	0.58200 → 0.57872	Timed out	-0.28R
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts combine technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to write one tradable plan per market for the next session — and only where the levels allow one. What each plan is worth is stated as an expected result, and how the plans actually ended is published below.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels on the daily candles.
AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model reads all of those factors together and writes the plan: entry, stop and two targets, with the levels it is built on.
Verification: every forecast is checked against the real market candles of its target day — target reached, stop hit, still open at the close, or entry never touched — and the full record is published on this page, win or lose.

Since August 2026 the model also receives the week's economic calendar: since 16 September 2026 a pair with a high-impact release on either of its currencies inside the plan window gets no directional plan at all (on the verified record those plans lost 0.35R per filled plan and were stopped half of the time, against a small gain and one stop in six for the rest), medium-impact releases are weighed as gap risk, and the events considered are recorded with each forecast. Since September 2026 it also reads the last 48 hours of our forex news feed and runs a few web searches for the day's macro context (central-bank expectations, intervention warnings, risk events), and the plans are treated as one book: at most three directional plans per currency, the rest set to neutral, so that one adverse headline cannot stop twenty plans that were really a single trade.

Forecasts are generated at 18:30 New York time, ninety minutes after the daily rollover, and cover the trading day that has just opened. Each plan is meant to run until 16:00 New York, an hour before the next rollover: that hour is left out on purpose, because spreads widen so much that a stop can be hit without the market ever moving there. The verification uses the same window.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
Entry Point: The price the order waits for. Every plan is a limit order — a buy limit for a long, a sell limit for a short — so the entry is a pullback from the price at the time the plan was written, and the numbers above hold whenever you place it.
Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
Targets: Two price objectives — a conservative one, which is the first real level worth at least as much as the plan risks, and an optimal one further out
Expected Result: What one plan is worth for every unit of risk, over a long run of plans like it — the single number that summarises the plan. Risk $100 on each and +0.20R means about $20 back on average per plan, −0.05R about $5 lost. It weighs three outcomes, not two: the target is reached, the stop is reached, or the order is still open when the window closes and is counted at its closing price — that last case is the majority, and the rate it is priced at comes from the verified record below, not from an assumption. Only plans with a positive expected result, and with target odds above the no-edge baseline, are promoted to the Top 3; when fewer than three clear the bar, the Top 3 is shorter, or empty
Target odds: the model's chance that the conservative target is hit before the stop and before the window closes, once the order fills. It is not shown next to each plan: with three possible outcomes a plan with no edge at all already sits at the no-edge baseline for a 1:1 plan is about 17%, not 50%, so the raw figure means nothing without that baseline printed beside it. The expected result carries the baseline inside, and the rates actually measured on the record are published below. Since 22 September 2026 the odds behind the expected result give the model's declared edge over that baseline only 50% credit: on the verified record the edges the model declared had not materialised, so the published expected result is computed from the credited odds, and the model's raw figure is kept in the data as model_probability
Risk/Reward Ratio: What the plan stands to make against what it risks. Never below 1:1 — a plan that risks more than it can win needs to be right most of the time just to break even

Trading Implementation

Read the expected result, not the reward-to-risk alone: a wide target that is rarely reached can be worth less than a near one, and the expected result is the number that already weighs the two together
Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
Adjust position size based on expected volatility
Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: A positive expected result is an estimate over many plans, not a promise about the next one, and no forecast here guarantees future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

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Background reading

From our blog, on what this page measures.

Trading Expectancy: How to Calculate It Correctly and Improve ItExpectancy measures the average value you can expect per trade. It is the number that explains why a strategy can win mo…Read the article Forex Trade Management After Entry: Breakeven, Trailing, Partial Close, and When to Leave It AloneBreakeven, trailing, partial closes and the daily rollover: what each management tool does to a one-session plan, what i…Read the article Forex Position Sizing: How Much Should You Invest?Position Sizing refers to determining the most suitable investment for a single trade. Deciding to invest 10 euros rathe…Read the article

Daily Forex Forecast

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Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

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