| EURAUD |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
1.62057 |
1.61900Buy limit |
1.61300 |
1.62660 |
+0.10R |
1:1.27 |
+1.27RTarget hit |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.10R
Analysis Price
1.62057
Entry Point
1.61900
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
1.61300
Conservative Target
1.62660
Risk:Reward
1:1.27
Optimal Target
1.63350
Stop Loss Distance
60.0 pips
Target Distance
76.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.62272
1.62660
1.63350
Support:
1.61658
1.60807
1.59900
Rationale
The rebound trend has MACD crossed up, and AUD is under pressure after the RBA dropped its tightening bias. Stop below 1.6166 support; targets are the 1.6266 Oct 15 high, then 1.6335.
|
| GBPAUD |
Bullish
|
High
|
1.94255 |
1.94150Buy limit |
1.93500 |
1.95000 |
+0.10R |
1:1.31 |
+1.31RTarget hit |
Forecast Details
Confidence
High
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.10R
Analysis Price
1.94255
Entry Point
1.94150
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
1.93500
Conservative Target
1.95000
Risk:Reward
1:1.31
Optimal Target
1.95000
Stop Loss Distance
65.0 pips
Target Distance
85.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.94145
1.95000
Support:
1.93622
1.91705
1.90080
Rationale
Uptrend with retail 72% short, and the BoE's hawkish hike to 4% contrasts with an RBA that dropped its tightening bias; buy a shallow pullback after the close near the high. Stop below the 1.9362 Nov 4 high; target is 1.9500, the only level overhead.
|
| AUDCHF |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
0.56467 |
0.56520Sell limit |
0.56880 |
0.56000 |
+0.10R |
1:1.44 |
+0.60RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.10R
Analysis Price
0.56467
Entry Point
0.56520
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
0.56880
Conservative Target
0.56000
Risk:Reward
1:1.44
Optimal Target
0.56000
Stop Loss Distance
36.0 pips
Target Distance
52.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.56836
0.57094
0.57442
Support:
0.56519
0.56000
Rationale
Accelerating downtrend, with broad franc strength and an RBA that dropped its tightening bias; sell a retest of the broken 0.5652 support after the close on the low. Stop above 0.5684 resistance; target is 0.5600, the only structure below.
|
| GBPNZD |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
2.40447 |
2.40250Buy limit |
2.39100 |
2.42000 |
+0.09R |
1:1.52 |
Not filled |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.09R
Analysis Price
2.40447
Entry Point
2.40250
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
2.39100
Conservative Target
2.42000
Risk:Reward
1:1.52
Optimal Target
2.42000
Stop Loss Distance
115.0 pips
Target Distance
175.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
2.40826
2.42000
Support:
2.38464
2.38057
2.37196
Rationale
Sterling's trend against the weakest currency, with retail 80% short and the BoE hike as backdrop, though RSI 72 is stretched. Support at 2.3846 is 1.2 ATR away, so a 0.77 ATR volatility stop is used, targeting 2.4200.
|
| EURCHF |
Bearish
|
Low
|
0.91509 |
0.91580Sell limit |
0.91940 |
0.91000 |
+0.08R |
1:1.61 |
+0.50RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.08R
Analysis Price
0.91509
Entry Point
0.91580
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
0.91940
Conservative Target
0.91000
Risk:Reward
1:1.61
Optimal Target
0.91000
Stop Loss Distance
36.0 pips
Target Distance
58.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.91900
0.92155
0.92504
Support:
0.91358
0.91299
0.91000
Rationale
Lower highs since Oct 22, retail 78% long and broad franc demand; sell the bounce, with the stop above 0.9190 resistance. The 0.9130 double low must break before 0.9100, the only level below that gives 1:1, hence low confidence.
|
| EURNZD |
Bullish
|
Low
|
2.00589 |
2.00350Buy limit |
1.99300 |
2.01499 |
+0.07R |
1:1.09 |
Not filled |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.07R
Analysis Price
2.00589
Entry Point
2.00350
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
1.99300
Conservative Target
2.01499
Risk:Reward
1:1.09
Optimal Target
2.02000
Stop Loss Distance
105.0 pips
Target Distance
114.9 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
2.01110
2.01499
2.02000
Support:
1.99388
1.98989
1.97778
Rationale
Uptrend against the weakest currency, with retail 66% short; this pair's daily pullbacks run 0.4-0.5 ATR, so the entry sits deeper and the stop goes below 1.9939 support. Low confidence because the 2.0111 Nov 4 high caps before the 2.0150 target.
|
| EURGBP |
Bearish
|
Low
|
0.83425 |
0.83470Sell limit |
0.83680 |
0.83217 |
+0.06R |
1:1.20 |
+0.03RTimed out |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
+0.06R
Analysis Price
0.83425
Entry Point
0.83470
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
0.83680
Conservative Target
0.83217
Risk:Reward
1:1.20
Optimal Target
0.83000
Stop Loss Distance
21.0 pips
Target Distance
25.3 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.83646
0.84019
0.84286
Support:
0.83217
0.83000
Rationale
Downtrend with retail 78% long, and the BoE's 8-1 hike to 4% (one vote for 50bp) favours sterling; sell toward the top of the compressed band, with the stop above 0.8365 resistance. RSI 23.6 is oversold and the target is the 0.8322 range floor, hence low confidence.
|
| EURUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.12309 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.12309
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.12407
1.12693
1.13000
Support:
1.11834
1.11612
1.11089
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate (High) at 08:30 NY rule out a USD plan. The technical picture is a four-week range in any case.
|
| GBPUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.34625 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.34625
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.35030
1.35678
1.36755
Support:
1.34047
1.33673
1.32723
Rationale
The uptrend is backed by the BoE hike, but US Non-Farm Payrolls (High) at 08:30 NY rules out a plan. The long-GBP theme is carried by GBPAUD, GBPNZD and EURGBP.
|
| USDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
157.287 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
157.287
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
158.056
158.501
158.765
Support:
157.536
157.375
156.962
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY and BOJ Gov Ueda at 11:00 NY are both High-impact. BOJ minutes showing a hike consensus add yen event risk to a directionless range.
|
| USDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.81480 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.81480
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.82169
0.82635
0.83128
Support:
0.81272
0.80671
0.80519
Rationale
The downtrend is intact, but US Non-Farm Payrolls (High) at 08:30 NY rules out a plan. Franc strength is expressed through AUDCHF and EURCHF instead.
|
| AUDUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.69303 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.69303
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.69541
0.69898
0.70245
Support:
0.69037
0.68941
Rationale
The Nov 5 bearish breakdown fits the short-AUD theme, but US Non-Farm Payrolls (High) at 08:30 NY rules out a plan. AUD shorts are carried by GBPAUD, EURAUD and AUDCHF.
|
| USDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.40105 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.40105
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.40235
1.40680
1.41318
Support:
1.39679
1.39413
1.39292
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls and Canada Employment Change (both High) land together at 08:30 NY. That is maximum gap risk on both legs of a pair that is ranging.
|
| NZDUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.55989 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.55989
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.56262
0.56578
0.56872
Support:
0.55795
0.55649
Rationale
The bearish trend is clear, but US Non-Farm Payrolls (High) at 08:30 NY rules out a plan. NZD shorts are carried by GBPNZD and EURNZD.
|
| EURJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
176.647 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
176.647
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
177.965
178.475
179.309
Support:
176.516
176.254
175.081
Rationale
BOJ Gov Ueda speaks at 11:00 NY (High), after minutes showed a consensus for further hikes. The range technicals give no reason to take that yen risk.
|
| EURCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.57343 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.57343
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.57493
1.58208
1.58628
Support:
1.56578
1.55910
1.55521
Rationale
Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (High) at 08:30 NY rule out a CAD plan. The setup is a corrective bounce into 1.5749 resistance anyway.
|
| GBPJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
211.744 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
211.744
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
213.037
213.767
215.000
Support:
212.120
211.548
210.285
Rationale
BOJ Gov Ueda at 11:00 NY (High), with minutes showing a hike consensus, argues against buying a yen-cross dip. Sterling strength is carried by GBPAUD, GBPNZD and EURGBP.
|
| GBPCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.09691 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.09691
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.10054
1.10274
1.10588
Support:
1.09635
1.09393
1.09110
Rationale
Four-week range between 1.0939 and 1.1070, with both legs strong: the BoE hike offsets franc demand. There is no edge, and both currencies are already expressed elsewhere.
|
| GBPCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.88605 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.88605
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.88599
1.89067
Support:
1.87948
1.87748
1.87417
Rationale
Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (High) at 08:30 NY rule out a plan. The long-GBP theme is carried by GBPAUD, GBPNZD and EURGBP.
|
| AUDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
109.003 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
109.003
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
109.561
110.423
110.641
Support:
109.190
108.667
Rationale
BOJ Gov Ueda speaks at 11:00 NY (High), so no yen plan. AUD shorts are carried by GBPAUD, EURAUD and AUDCHF.
|
| CADJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
112.268 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
112.268
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
112.921
113.474
113.659
Support:
112.526
112.129
111.483
Rationale
Both legs have High-impact risk: Canada Employment Change at 08:30 NY and BOJ Gov Ueda at 11:00 NY. Buying the dip into a hawkish-BOJ backdrop is the trade to avoid.
|
| NZDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
88.060 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
88.060
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
88.659
89.073
89.393
Support:
88.101
87.500
Rationale
BOJ Gov Ueda speaks at 11:00 NY (High), so no yen plan. NZD shorts are carried by GBPNZD and EURNZD.
|
| CHFJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
193.038 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
193.038
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
194.155
194.330
195.000
Support:
193.039
192.486
190.825
Rationale
BOJ Gov Ueda speaks at 11:00 NY (High), with minutes showing a hike consensus, so no long-yen-cross plan. Franc strength is carried by AUDCHF and EURCHF.
|
| AUDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.97092 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.97092
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.97587
0.98005
0.98396
Support:
0.97086
0.96500
Rationale
Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (High) at 08:30 NY rule out a plan. AUD shorts are carried by GBPAUD, EURAUD and AUDCHF.
|
| AUDNZD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.23782 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range held |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
1.23782
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.24367
1.24650
1.24925
Support:
1.23764
1.23565
1.23053
Rationale
The Oct 28 spike has fully unwound into the late-October congestion, with both legs weak and momentum flat. There is no edge.
|
| NZDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.45619 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.45619
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.45967
0.46138
0.46497
Support:
0.45605
0.45515
0.45000
Rationale
The stop must sit above 0.4597, and the first level below that reaches 1:1 is 0.4500, 1.7 ATR away, so there is no fair ratio. The theme is already carried by the NZD shorts in GBPNZD and EURNZD and the CHF longs in AUDCHF and EURCHF.
|
| NZDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.78440 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.78440
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.78916
0.79497
0.80034
Support:
0.78383
0.78184
0.78074
Rationale
Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (High) at 08:30 NY rule out a plan. NZD shorts are carried by GBPNZD and EURNZD.
|
| CADCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.58159 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
0.58159
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.58636
0.58786
0.59074
Support:
0.58280
0.58116
0.58018
Rationale
Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (High) at 08:30 NY rule out a CAD plan. Franc strength is carried by AUDCHF and EURCHF.
|
| XAUUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
4095.50 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Range broken |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Expected result R = what the plan risks
—
Analysis Price
4095.50
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
4147.03
4198.90
4217.17
Support:
4073.47
4057.88
3975.71
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate at 08:30 NY count for gold, so no plan. The regime is already volatile, with an 84-dollar ATR.
|