Daily Forex Forecast

Every night our AI builds a trade plan for every market that offers one — entry, stop, two targets, with the reward-to-risk and what the plan is worth on average per unit risked in plain sight; pairs it reads as directionless get a range instead. Then the market judges it: every plan is checked against real candles and published again, win or lose. And the rollover hour, when spreads blow out and stops get hit for nothing, stays outside the plan on purpose.

Forecast generated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 Forecast for: Thursday, 17 September 2026 Plan window: Wed 23:00 – Thu 20:00 UTC Stop hit on about 2 in 10 plans · verified record

Archive 2026-09-16

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

The Fed's 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September (confirmed in search, unanimous) is the single driver of the board: a broad dollar surge broke EURUSD 1.1523, GBPUSD 1.3464, AUDUSD 0.7108 and cleared USDCAD 1.3990 and USDCHF 0.8264. The book therefore expresses three themes only — long USD (EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD), short CHF via the crosses (USDCHF, EURCHF) and firm JPY against the weak commodity/European legs (EURJPY, CADJPY) — with the franc crosses capped at two names and the yen crosses at two ahead of the BoJ later this month. Sterling and the kiwi are entirely off the table on High-impact events, so the board is deliberately narrow at six directional plans.

Volatility Forecast

High

Key Events to Monitor

NZD GDP q/q at 18:45 NY Wed (High) — all kiwi pairs neutral
GBP Bank Rate, MPC votes and Monetary Policy Summary at 07:00 NY Thu (High, hold at 3.75% expected) — all sterling pairs neutral
USD Philly Fed and Unemployment Claims at 08:30 NY Thu (Medium) — dollar follow-through risk after the hike
JPY: BoJ meets later in September with hike bets and prior intervention near 160 — caps USDJPY upside at the 156.415/156.752 shelf

Best Opportunities

USDCHF Bullish

USDCAD Bullish

EURUSD Bearish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The Top 3 are the pairs the model singles out as the best of the session, kept only when what the plan is worth — the odds of the target, the reward-to-risk and the share of plans that run out of time, read together — is positive; if fewer than three clear that bar, the list is shorter — sometimes empty. Each forecast carries an entry, a stop loss and two targets, so the whole plan is on the table before you decide. No plan is published below 1:1: if no real level on the chart offers at least as much reward as risk, the pair is published as Neutral instead. The whole chain is ours — our AI generates the plan, our own geometry rules validate every level server-side, and our verification republishes the outcome win or lose — and the same feed powers the MT5 Trade Panel. On the verified record when these plans were written (218 filled plans), 8% hit the target, 23% hit the stop and 69% timed out at the window close: that is the mix behind the expected result shown on each plan.

USDCHF

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:1.88

Expected result +0.12 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 0.82510 Buy limit

Stop Loss 0.82250 (26.0 pips)

Conservative Target 0.83000 (49.0 pips)

Optimal Target 0.83350 (84.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.82640 0.83000 0.83350

Support: 0.81990 0.81769 0.81533

Rationale

Six sessions of higher lows and a close at 0.82582 on the hawkish Fed, with retail 66% short fuelling continuation. Support at 0.8199 is a full ATR away, so a 0.5 ATR volatility stop is used instead.

Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail

USDCAD

Bullish High Confidence

R/R 1:2.95

Expected result +0.14 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 1.39830 Buy limit

Stop Loss 1.39500 (33.0 pips)

Conservative Target 1.40804 (97.4 pips)

Optimal Target 1.41289 (145.9 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.39948 1.40804 1.41289

Support: 1.39180 1.38973 1.38649

Rationale

Five higher closes and a clean break of 1.39398 after the Fed hike, with retail 67% short and CAD soft after Carney's capex plan. Volatility stop of 0.55 ATR as 1.3918 support is too close to respect while 1.40804 is the magnet.

Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail

EURUSD

Bearish High Confidence

R/R 1:3.16

Expected result +0.20 × your risk estimate

Entry Point 1.14700 Sell limit

Stop Loss 1.14950 (25.0 pips)

Conservative Target 1.13911 (78.9 pips)

Optimal Target 1.13774 (92.6 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.14777 1.15229 1.15564

Support: 1.13911 1.13774 1.13597

Rationale

The post-Fed dollar surge broke 1.15229 and closed near the low, with retail 65% long adding overhead supply. Stop is a 0.5 ATR volatility stop just above broken 1.14777, since the next support is a full ATR away.

Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail

These plans can go straight onto your chart. The Trade Panel EA reads this same forecast inside MetaTrader 5 — entry, stop and both targets — and prefills the pending order at the published price, so the trade you place is the one measured on this page. The Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws the plan on the chart of that market, with stop and target you can drag. It is available now — one license covers both panels. New to trade panels? How an MT5 trade panel places these plans.

Discover the Trade Panel EA

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, the reward-to-risk ratio and the expected result it is worth per unit of risk. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair	Direction	Confidence	Analysis Price	Entry	Stop Loss	Target	Expected result	Risk:Reward	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	High	1.14637	1.14700Sell limit	1.14950	1.13911	+0.20R	1:3.16	-1.00RStop hit
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.20R Analysis Price 1.14637 Entry Point 1.14700 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 1.14950 Conservative Target 1.13911 Risk:Reward 1:3.16 Optimal Target 1.13774 Stop Loss Distance 25.0 pips Target Distance 78.9 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.14777 1.15229 1.15564 Support: 1.13911 1.13774 1.13597 Rationale The post-Fed dollar surge broke 1.15229 and closed near the low, with retail 65% long adding overhead supply. Stop is a 0.5 ATR volatility stop just above broken 1.14777, since the next support is a full ATR away. Full EURUSD analysis Sentiment detail
USDCAD	Bullish	High	1.39910	1.39830Buy limit	1.39500	1.40804	+0.14R	1:2.95	+0.18RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.14R Analysis Price 1.39910 Entry Point 1.39830 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 1.39500 Conservative Target 1.40804 Risk:Reward 1:2.95 Optimal Target 1.41289 Stop Loss Distance 33.0 pips Target Distance 97.4 pips Key Levels Resistance: 1.39948 1.40804 1.41289 Support: 1.39180 1.38973 1.38649 Rationale Five higher closes and a clean break of 1.39398 after the Fed hike, with retail 67% short and CAD soft after Carney's capex plan. Volatility stop of 0.55 ATR as 1.3918 support is too close to respect while 1.40804 is the magnet. Full USDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
USDCHF	Bullish	High	0.82581	0.82510Buy limit	0.82250	0.83000	+0.12R	1:1.88	-1.00RStop hit
Forecast Details Confidence High Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.12R Analysis Price 0.82581 Entry Point 0.82510 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.82250 Conservative Target 0.83000 Risk:Reward 1:1.88 Optimal Target 0.83350 Stop Loss Distance 26.0 pips Target Distance 49.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.82640 0.83000 0.83350 Support: 0.81990 0.81769 0.81533 Rationale Six sessions of higher lows and a close at 0.82582 on the hawkish Fed, with retail 66% short fuelling continuation. Support at 0.8199 is a full ATR away, so a 0.5 ATR volatility stop is used instead. Full USDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
EURCHF	Bullish	Medium	0.94646	0.94600Buy limit	0.94350	0.95000	+0.11R	1:1.60	+0.22RTimed out
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.11R Analysis Price 0.94646 Entry Point 0.94600 Order Type Buy limit Stop Loss 0.94350 Conservative Target 0.95000 Risk:Reward 1:1.60 Optimal Target 0.95350 Stop Loss Distance 25.0 pips Target Distance 40.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 0.94743 0.95000 0.95350 Support: 0.94372 0.94222 0.93973 Rationale Third test of 0.94743 in four sessions while 0.94222 holds, with retail 77% short the most lopsided book on the board. Stop sits beneath the 0.94372 higher low, 0.72 ATR from entry. Full EURCHF analysis Sentiment detail
EURJPY	Bearish	Medium	179.110	179.260Sell limit	179.850	178.135	+0.09R	1:1.91	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.09R Analysis Price 179.110 Entry Point 179.260 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 179.850 Conservative Target 178.135 Risk:Reward 1:1.91 Optimal Target 177.853 Stop Loss Distance 59.0 pips Target Distance 112.5 pips Key Levels Resistance: 179.350 179.540 180.224 Support: 178.706 178.135 177.853 Rationale MACD histogram at -0.41 is still widening while the bounce has failed to reclaim the 179.54 shelf, and retail at 62% long is accumulating into weakness. Stop is 0.5 ATR above entry, beyond that pivot. Full EURJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CADJPY	Bearish	Medium	111.695	111.800Sell limit	112.250	111.140	+0.09R	1:1.47	Not filled
Forecast Details Confidence Medium Expected result R = what the plan risks +0.09R Analysis Price 111.695 Entry Point 111.800 Order Type Sell limit Stop Loss 112.250 Conservative Target 111.140 Risk:Reward 1:1.47 Optimal Target 110.803 Stop Loss Distance 45.0 pips Target Distance 66.0 pips Key Levels Resistance: 111.816 112.016 112.962 Support: 111.140 110.803 110.549 Rationale Three green closes have not repaired a MACD at -0.89 under its signal, and CAD softness versus the post-hike dollar caps the rebound at 111.816. Stop is a 0.5 ATR volatility stop above the 112.016 line. Full CADJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPUSD	Neutral	Low	1.33818	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.33818 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.34517 1.34643 1.34976 Support: 1.33725 1.33423 1.33221 Rationale No directional plan: High-impact BoE Bank Rate, votes and Monetary Policy Summary at 07:00 NY inside the window. Gap risk through stops outweighs the clean bearish break of 1.3464. Full GBPUSD analysis Sentiment detail
USDJPY	Neutral	Low	156.230	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 156.230 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 156.415 156.752 158.210 Support: 155.227 154.837 153.240 Rationale Bias is only low-confidence long and the USD theme is already carried by EURUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD. BoJ meets later this month with hike bets and past intervention above here, a poor place to add dollar length. Full USDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
AUDUSD	Neutral	Low	0.70875	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.70875 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.71081 0.71294 0.71409 Support: 0.70749 0.70668 0.70223 Rationale Redundant with the long-USD plans in EURUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD, which already express the post-hike dollar theme. News also flags buyers defending the key support area after the trendline break. Full AUDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDUSD	Neutral	Low	0.57184	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.57184 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.57271 0.57504 0.57684 Support: 0.57034 0.56723 0.56264 Rationale No directional plan: High-impact NZ GDP q/q at 18:45 NY sits inside the plan window. Oversold RSI into a binary release is not tradable. Full NZDUSD analysis Sentiment detail
EURGBP	Neutral	Low	0.85677	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.85677 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.85814 0.85831 0.86039 Support: 0.85575 0.85475 0.85318 Rationale High-impact BoE decision at 07:00 NY blocks any sterling plan. The cross is also mid-range with a flat MACD and split retail. Full EURGBP analysis Sentiment detail
EURAUD	Neutral	Low	1.61745	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.61745 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.62042 1.62275 1.62523 Support: 1.61592 1.61138 1.60813 Rationale Low-confidence range bias with the last four closes clustered near 1.6175, and the euro is already used in EURUSD, EURCHF and EURJPY. No edge above baseline at the achievable ratio. Full EURAUD analysis Sentiment detail
EURCAD	Neutral	Low	1.60355	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.60355 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.60661 1.60922 1.61184 Support: 1.60250 1.60082 1.60006 Rationale Eleven sessions trapped between 1.60006 and 1.61184 with a drifting MACD; the achievable 1:1.2 ratio does not beat the baseline. CAD weakness is already expressed in USDCAD and CADJPY. Full EURCAD analysis Sentiment detail
EURNZD	Neutral	Low	2.00563	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.00563 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.01118 2.01205 2.02375 Support: 2.00127 2.00005 1.99220 Rationale No directional plan: High-impact NZ GDP q/q at 18:45 NY falls inside the window. The uptrend stays valid but the release is a coin flip. Full EURNZD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPJPY	Neutral	Low	209.077	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 209.077 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 209.475 211.221 211.817 Support: 208.357 207.297 207.200 Rationale Blocked by the High-impact BoE Bank Rate, votes and statement at 07:00 NY. Seven sessions of compression would be resolved by the event, not by the levels. Full GBPJPY analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCHF	Neutral	Low	1.10485	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.10485 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.10565 1.10619 1.11000 Support: 1.10011 1.09799 1.09364 Rationale No directional plan into the 07:00 NY BoE decision and Monetary Policy Summary. Short-CHF exposure is already carried by USDCHF and EURCHF. Full GBPCHF analysis Sentiment detail
GBPAUD	Neutral	Low	1.88800	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.88800 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.89235 1.89510 1.89713 Support: 1.88470 1.88187 1.87331 Rationale Bias is neutral and the BoE decision at 07:00 NY rules out any sterling plan. Momentum is mixed with RSI below the midline against a positive MACD histogram. Full GBPAUD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPCAD	Neutral	Low	1.87158	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.87158 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.87890 1.88522 1.89134 Support: 1.87100 1.86493 1.86074 Rationale Price sits exactly on the 1.87127 pivot with split retail, and the High-impact BoE releases at 07:00 NY block any directional plan. Full GBPCAD analysis Sentiment detail
GBPNZD	Neutral	Low	2.34116	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 2.34116 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 2.34732 2.34897 2.35412 Support: 2.33354 2.33172 2.32418 Rationale Both legs carry High-impact events in the window: NZ GDP at 18:45 NY and the BoE decision at 07:00 NY. Overbought RSI into two binaries is untradable. Full GBPNZD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDJPY	Neutral	Low	110.726	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 110.726 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 110.854 111.220 111.508 Support: 110.432 110.029 109.671 Rationale Redundant with the long-JPY expressions already taken in EURJPY and CADJPY, and the first support at 110.432 is closer than a minimum stop. Keeping yen exposure to two names ahead of the BoJ meeting later this month. Full AUDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
NZDJPY	Neutral	Low	89.303	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 89.303 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 89.442 89.994 90.239 Support: 88.987 88.962 88.500 Rationale No directional plan: High-impact NZ GDP q/q at 18:45 NY inside the window. The 81% retail long book makes the release doubly two-sided. Full NZDJPY analysis Sentiment detail
CHFJPY	Neutral	Low	189.264	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 189.264 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 189.796 190.145 190.807 Support: 188.963 187.936 187.841 Rationale A short here is a fourth short-CHF position on top of USDCHF and EURCHF and a third long-JPY leg. Redundant on both currencies, so neutral by choice. Full CHFJPY analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.58525	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.58525 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.58573 0.58596 0.59000 Support: 0.58312 0.58170 0.58122 Rationale Redundant with the short-CHF plans in USDCHF and EURCHF, and no listed level sits beyond 0.5900 to serve as a second target. Eight sessions of consolidation also argue against chasing. Full AUDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
AUDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.99137	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.99137 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.99257 0.99476 0.99786 Support: 0.99007 0.98966 0.98918 Rationale Bias is neutral with RSI at 50.2 and four closes within 30 pips — textbook indecision. No level offers 1:1 from a valid entry. Full AUDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
AUDNZD	Neutral	Low	1.24000	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 1.24000 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 1.24164 1.24500 1.25000 Support: 1.23718 1.23419 1.23013 Rationale No directional plan: High-impact NZ GDP q/q at 18:45 NY sits inside the window. The trend is clean but the release owns the next move. Full AUDNZD analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCHF	Neutral	Low	0.47211	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.47211 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.47232 0.47534 0.47586 Support: 0.47097 0.47045 0.46985 Rationale Blocked by the High-impact NZ GDP release at 18:45 NY. With only a 30-pip ATR, event gap risk dwarfs the plan. Full NZDCHF analysis Sentiment detail
NZDCAD	Neutral	Low	0.79979	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.79979 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.80366 0.80699 0.81192 Support: 0.79936 0.79802 0.79500 Rationale No directional plan despite the high-confidence downtrend: NZ GDP q/q at 18:45 NY is High-impact and inside the window. The 85% retail long book would amplify a two-way spike. Full NZDCAD analysis Sentiment detail
CADCHF	Neutral	Low	0.59029	—	—	—	—	—	Range held
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 0.59029 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 0.59078 0.59500 Support: 0.58688 0.58538 0.58412 Rationale Short-CHF is already expressed in USDCHF and EURCHF, and long CAD here contradicts the short-CAD plans in USDCAD and CADJPY. No level beyond 0.5950 for a second target. Full CADCHF analysis Sentiment detail
XAUUSD	Neutral	Low	4263.74	—	—	—	—	—	Range broken
Forecast Details Confidence Low Expected result R = what the plan risks — Analysis Price 4263.74 Entry Point — Order Type — Stop Loss — Conservative Target — Risk:Reward — Optimal Target — Stop Loss Distance — Target Distance — Key Levels Resistance: 4299.20 4367.17 4449.63 Support: 4234.84 4200.00 4020.65 Rationale Gold is a fourth dollar-long expression on a board already holding EURUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD, and the 132-dollar swing versus a 103 ATR shows disorderly two-way risk. Philly Fed and claims at 08:30 NY add headline risk to an already stretched range. Full XAUUSD analysis Sentiment detail

Expected result is in R — multiples of what the plan risks. +0.20R on a $100 risk means about $20 back, on average over a long run of plans like it — an estimate, not a result.

Verified record

The three we pick

+$5 average per $100 risked

78 of 117 picks filled, over 39 verified days · target hit 17%

Every plan on the board

−$6 average per $100 risked

325 plans over 39 verified days · target hit 10%

39 verified days is a short record, and neither number is proof yet. On 78 picks the honest range around the +$5 runs from −$12 to +$22 — wide enough to include zero. We publish both figures as they grow, win or lose.

How solid is this, exactly?

What the two numbers are. The board is the whole sheet, all 29 markets, and it includes every plan that did not clear the bar for the Top 3. The Top 3 are the ones declared the evening before, when the forecast is published — not picked afterwards: every one of them is in the dated archive, so you can check any past day yourself. Of 117 picks published, 78 were actually filled; the rest never reached their entry price and are excluded, here as everywhere else.

Why the sample is weaker than the count suggests. 20 of the 78 picks lost the full $100, against 45 that closed above zero — the shape of the record so far. One session accounts for 69% of the Top 3 result, and 26 of the 78 picks were the same underlying bet (long AUD) expressed on different pairs, so they are fewer independent outcomes than they look. The board figure carries its own range, −$14 to +$2, which also includes zero.

What this sample cannot show. That the picks beat the board, and that either of them makes money over time. What it does show is the method: every plan checked against the real candles of its day and republished, whatever it did.

How the 325 plans of the board ended (19 Aug – 12 Oct 2026)

Target hit 10% (34)
Stop hit 24% (78)
Timed out 66% (213)

Every plan is checked against the real market candles of its target day. “Timed out” means the order was still open at the end of the day and is counted at its closing price — not as a loss. 158 plans never reached the entry price, so they are excluded.

See the full breakdown

30% Win rate 34 of 112 plans closed at target or stop

-0.06R Actual average result what the plans really returned, per traded plan, risking the same amount on every one

+0.09R Timed-out average how those 213 orders ended, on average

A high win rate alone doesn’t mean profit: what matters is how much each win and each loss is worth. That is what the number at the top measures.

Win rate by direction

Bullish

22%

14 of 65 plans

Bearish

43%

20 of 47 plans

Win rate by pair

Pair	Win rate	Plans
GBPJPY	75%	3 / 4
EURJPY	67%	2 / 3
NZDJPY	67%	2 / 3
AUDCHF	50%	3 / 6
NZDCAD	50%	2 / 4
AUDUSD	43%	3 / 7
EURUSD	40%	2 / 5
NZDUSD	40%	2 / 5
USDCAD	40%	2 / 5
XAUUSD	33%	1 / 3
GBPUSD	33%	1 / 3
CHFJPY	33%	1 / 3
EURCHF	30%	3 / 10
EURGBP	25%	1 / 4
GBPAUD	25%	1 / 4
EURNZD	25%	1 / 4
USDCHF	25%	1 / 4
USDJPY	25%	1 / 4
AUDJPY	20%	1 / 5
GBPCAD	0%	0 / 6
NZDCHF	0%	0 / 4
AUDCAD	0%	0 / 3
GBPNZD	0%	0 / 3

What each outcome means

Target hit: Price reached the conservative target without touching the stop first, and the minute-by-minute prices of our data feed (bid and ask, the sides a real order fills and closes on) confirm it happened after the order filled; where a day has no complete minute record, the hourly candles take over. A price printed before the entry was reached does not count: there was no position to close.
Stop hit: Price reached the stop before the target. Counts as a loss. When a day touched both levels, the minute prices say which one came first (the hourly candles where the minute record is incomplete) — and a stop can only be hit after the entry filled, never before. In the rare event that both land inside the same minute, the tie goes to the loss.
Timed out: The order was still open when the day ended: it is closed at that day's closing price, so the result can be slightly positive or slightly negative. Not a loss.
Not filled: Price never reached the entry, so the order would never have opened. Excluded from every rate — counting it either way would be inventing a trade that did not exist.
Range held / Range broken: Only for neutral calls, where the forecast says a pair has no direction and publishes no trade. We check whether the day closed inside the levels we published: held if it did, broken if it did not. Neither counts in the statistics, because there was no order to place.

The Result column is in R, multiples of what that plan put at risk: +1.50R means one and a half times the risk, −1R is a full stop loss. It is the same unit as the headline above, which is simply the average R turned into dollars.

Day by day

12 Oct 2026 2 target · 0 stop · 2 timed out $100 → $185

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12070 → 1.11612	Target hit	+1.12R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42470 → 1.42980	Timed out	+0.85R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56170 → 0.55930	Target hit	+1.09R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84680 → 0.84474	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Bearish	1.60480 → 1.60000	Timed out	+0.36R
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35680 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24300 → 1.24650	Not filled	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–

9 Oct 2026 1 target · 3 stop · 5 timed out $100 → $84

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12210 → 1.11612	Timed out	+0.61R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83060 → 0.83464	Timed out	-0.23R
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84790 → 0.84613	Target hit	+1.04R
EURJPY	Bearish	177.250 → 176.516	Timed out	-0.04R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Bullish	1.90000 → 1.90693	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35920 → 2.36646	Timed out	-0.18R
AUDJPY	Bearish	110.000 → 109.233	Stop hit	-1.00R
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46650 → 0.46357	Timed out	+0.35R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Bearish	4147.00 → 4066.46	Stop hit	-1.00R

8 Oct 2026 0 target · 0 stop · 7 timed out $100 → $125

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12100 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.08R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Bullish	0.83200 → 0.83615	Timed out	-0.21R
AUDUSD	Bearish	0.69710 → 0.69426	Timed out	+0.45R
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93360 → 0.92951	Timed out	+0.35R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Bearish	1.59730 → 1.59058	Timed out	+0.82R
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Bullish	1.24270 → 1.24650	Timed out	-0.18R
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46690 → 0.46515	Timed out	+0.61R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

7 Oct 2026 1 target · 1 stop · 0 timed out $100 → $106

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
USDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84862 → 0.84547	Not filled	–
EURJPY	Bearish	178.280 → 177.029	Target hit	+1.12R
EURCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88480 → 1.89118	Stop hit	-1.00R
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35780 → 2.36646	Not filled	–
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDJPY	Bearish	89.080 → 88.329	Not filled	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDCAD	Bearish	0.80000 → 0.79711	Not filled	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

6 Oct 2026 0 target · 3 stop · 4 timed out $100 → $49

Pair	Direction	Entry → Target	Outcome	Result
EURUSD	Bearish	1.12290 → 1.11612	Timed out	-0.50R
GBPUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
USDCAD	Bullish	1.42500 → 1.42931	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDUSD	Bearish	0.56080 → 0.55798	Timed out	-0.67R
EURGBP	Bearish	0.84890 → 0.84547	Timed out	+0.35R
EURJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
EURCHF	Bearish	0.93290 → 0.93018	Stop hit	-1.00R
EURAUD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
EURNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
GBPJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPAUD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
GBPCAD	Bullish	1.88400 → 1.88934	Not filled	–
GBPNZD	Bullish	2.35880 → 2.36646	Timed out	+0.25R
AUDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CADJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
NZDJPY	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
CHFJPY	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCHF	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
AUDNZD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
NZDCHF	Bearish	0.46580 → 0.46330	Stop hit	-1.00R
NZDCAD	Neutral	Range	Range held	–
CADCHF	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–
XAUUSD	Neutral	Range	Range broken	–

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts combine technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to write one tradable plan per market for the next session — and only where the levels allow one. What each plan is worth is stated as an expected result, and how the plans actually ended is published below.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels on the daily candles.
AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model reads all of those factors together and writes the plan: entry, stop and two targets, with the levels it is built on.
Verification: every forecast is checked against the real market candles of its target day — target reached, stop hit, still open at the close, or entry never touched — and the full record is published on this page, win or lose.

Since August 2026 the model also receives the week's economic calendar: since 16 September 2026 a pair with a high-impact release on either of its currencies inside the plan window gets no directional plan at all (on the verified record those plans lost 0.35R per filled plan and were stopped half of the time, against a small gain and one stop in six for the rest), medium-impact releases are weighed as gap risk, and the events considered are recorded with each forecast. Since September 2026 it also reads the last 48 hours of our forex news feed and runs a few web searches for the day's macro context (central-bank expectations, intervention warnings, risk events), and the plans are treated as one book: at most three directional plans per currency, the rest set to neutral, so that one adverse headline cannot stop twenty plans that were really a single trade.

Forecasts are generated at 18:30 New York time, ninety minutes after the daily rollover, and cover the trading day that has just opened. Each plan is meant to run until 16:00 New York, an hour before the next rollover: that hour is left out on purpose, because spreads widen so much that a stop can be hit without the market ever moving there. The verification uses the same window.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
Entry Point: The price the order waits for. Every plan is a limit order — a buy limit for a long, a sell limit for a short — so the entry is a pullback from the price at the time the plan was written, and the numbers above hold whenever you place it.
Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
Targets: Two price objectives — a conservative one, which is the first real level worth at least as much as the plan risks, and an optimal one further out
Expected Result: What one plan is worth for every unit of risk, over a long run of plans like it — the single number that summarises the plan. Risk $100 on each and +0.20R means about $20 back on average per plan, −0.05R about $5 lost. It weighs three outcomes, not two: the target is reached, the stop is reached, or the order is still open when the window closes and is counted at its closing price — that last case is the majority, and the rate it is priced at comes from the verified record below, not from an assumption. Only plans with a positive expected result, and with target odds above the no-edge baseline, are promoted to the Top 3; when fewer than three clear the bar, the Top 3 is shorter, or empty
Target odds: the model's chance that the conservative target is hit before the stop and before the window closes, once the order fills. It is not shown next to each plan: with three possible outcomes a plan with no edge at all already sits at the no-edge baseline for a 1:1 plan is about 16%, not 50%, so the raw figure means nothing without that baseline printed beside it. The expected result carries the baseline inside, and the rates actually measured on the record are published below
Risk/Reward Ratio: What the plan stands to make against what it risks. Never below 1:1 — a plan that risks more than it can win needs to be right most of the time just to break even

Trading Implementation

Read the expected result, not the reward-to-risk alone: a wide target that is rarely reached can be worth less than a near one, and the expected result is the number that already weighs the two together
Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
Adjust position size based on expected volatility
Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: A positive expected result is an estimate over many plans, not a promise about the next one, and no forecast here guarantees future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

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Background reading

From our blog, on what this page measures.

Trading Expectancy: How to Calculate It Correctly and Improve ItExpectancy measures the average value you can expect per trade. It is the number that explains why a strategy can win mo…Read the article Forex Trade Management After Entry: Breakeven, Trailing, Partial Close, and When to Leave It AloneBreakeven, trailing, partial closes and the daily rollover: what each management tool does to a one-session plan, what i…Read the article Forex Position Sizing: How Much Should You Invest?Position Sizing refers to determining the most suitable investment for a single trade. Deciding to invest 10 euros rathe…Read the article

Daily Forex Forecast

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Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

General Outlook

Volatility Forecast

Key Events to Monitor

Best Opportunities

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

USDCHF

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